OlympicsFan

Very sad news. Robert Harutyunyan wont participate in Baku. His family is from Armenia and he said it would be too dangerous for him in Baku, considering the current conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. His brother Artem is already qualified and it was their dream to compete together in Rio. http://www.abendblatt.de/sport/article207451033/Robert-Harutyunyan-verzichtet-wegen-Konflikt-auf-Olympia.html Araik Marutjan for the same reason wont compete in Baku, but he will be allowed to compete at the qualification tournament for pros, because he competed in the APB last year unlike Harutyunyan. Edit: This might also be the reason why armenian athletes were so good at the first qualification tournament, AIBA didnt want to have them in Baku. 5 armenian boxers in the semifinal, 4 of them qualified, at the last european championships they only won 1 bronze medal ...

I dont know, but i found this interview from April 13th: http://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/landsberg/Zwei-Schuetzen-aus-dem-Landkreis-in-Rio-id37463277.html Her coach (and husband) said that he is optimistic that she will be allowed to compete in Rio, but the final decision will be made after the end of the World Cup in Munich (May 27th). Personally i think that she deserves to be in Rio. She recently beat Kostevych twice in Wroclaw to win womens air pistol (with 203.8 in the final) and one of two competitions in womens 25 m pistol (7:3 against Kostevych in the gold medal shootout). She also finished 4th in Rio in womens 25 m pistol (her weaker discipline), losing 6:8 against Kostevych in the bronze medal shootout after finishing second in qualification with a score of 584.

You can read everything here (in german), pages 7-15: https://www.dosb.de/fileadmin/Bilder_allgemein/Veranstaltungen/Rio_2016/Sportartspezifische_Nominierungskriterien_Rio_2016_DSueB_Aktualisierung_20160126.pdf To sum it up: Mens/womens air rifle: There was a competition in Dortmund from March 12th to March 13th for all the athletes who are part of the german "top team Rio" and only top 3 from there are able to qualify for Rio. The second part of the qualification consists of the world cups in Rio and Munich (May 19th to May 26th), so we will know the qualified athletes after the world cup in Munich. The results from those 3 competitions (Dortmund, Munich and Rio) will be "added" to determine the qualified athletes. Current standings: Men: Justus is clearly in the lead, he finished 4th in Rio. Janker was 44th and Schallenberger was 72th. Women: Gschwandtner was 3rd, Kreutzer was 8th and Engleder was 10th, still very open. Mens 50 m rifle prone: Brodmeier and Junghänel are basically qualified (they are the only 2 members of the "top team Rio" in this discipline). DSB (german shooting federation) cant nominate athletes, they are only allowed to "propose" athletes to DOSB ("german olympic committee") and then DOSB has to nominate those athletes, but they basically always nominate those athletes. Mens/womens 50 m rifle 3 positions: In this event the national "selection" didnt take place in Dortmund, it will consist of 2 competitions in Plzen (May 4th to May 8th) and Hanover (May 12th to May 15th). The top 3 from those competitions (results will be added) will be allowed to compete in Munich (May 19th to May 26th), the final part of the qualification, all results will be added. Mens rapid fire pistol: Results from the two world cups in Rio and Munich will be added and top 2 will qualify. At the moment everything is still open. In Rio Reitz finished 6th, Geis finished 4th and Sauter finished 7th (missing the final only by countback). At the moment its not unlikely that Reitz or Geis will miss Rio ... Mens/womens 10 m air pistol, mens trap, womens 25 m pistol and mens 50 m pistol: No quota place, so no qualification needed. Assuming that we get a spot in womens 10 m air pistol or womens 25 m pistol (I dont think that we will try to get a spot in mens trap, mens 50 m pistol or mens 10 m air pistol): Qualification consists of the World Cup in Munich, one competition in Hanover (May 9th to May 12th) and another competition in Munich (May 26th to May 27th). Scores will be added to determine the qualified athlete. Womens trap: Top 3 from the Grand Prix in Nicosia (March 9th to March 14th) and the World Cup in Nicosia (March 17th to March 25th) (results will be added) will be allowed to enter the second part of the qualification that consists of the World Cups in Nicosia (June 1st to June 4th) and Baku (June 20th to June 28th). In the end the athlete with the biggest number of top 6 finishes (reached finals) will qualify. Scheibl won silver at the world cup in Nicosia, so she should be clearly in the lead right now. Mens double trap: Qualification consists of the the world cup in Rio and the "Green Cup" in Todi (May 26th to May 29th), the number of finals will decide. (Same number of finals -> Better placement in the final will decide, the same is true for womens trap). Löw finished 5th in Rio, so he is clearly in the lead right now, Goldbrunner finished 12th. Mens skeet: Buchheim is basically qualified (same as in mens 50 rifle prone), because he is the only member of the "top team Rio" in this discipline Womens skeet: Same as in mens double trap. Wenzel was the only german athlete who reached the final in Rio, so she is clearly in the lead right now. In my opinion Brodmeier, Junghänel and Buchheim are basically safe for Rio. Justus, Scheibl, Löw and Wenzel are clearly in the lead and almost safe for Rio.

What do you mean? I think the probability that the french team in mens water polo will get disqualified is about 0,000001% and its even less likely that the french team in mens basketball will get eliminated. I didnt watch the water polo match France vs. Canada, so i cant say anything about the behavior of the french team, but i just think it would be completely childish to disqualify them and i am sure that it wont happen. I have nothing against the french team and i am sure that both french teams will play in Rio. FIBA can decide whatever they want, but i would be shocked if IOC would really allow them to disqualify a team from Rio. In the end it will be either all teams or no tournament at all, so there is only one real option ...

Shocking results for us today: Wenzel without a medal in womens skeet, although this was a pretty weak final. Reitz and Geis are clearly the best shooters and qualified 1st and 2nd but completely fucked up in the final, finishing 6th and 4th. In mens rapid fire pistol only the gold medal in Rio will be acceptable for us. Its a complete joke that Reitz still isnt able to control his nerves. He can win as many world cups as he wants, but without an olympic gold he will never become a legend of this sport. Sometimes its really hard when you are able to see the future ... I exactly knew that Geis would shoot 3 in his final round and then get eliminated in shootout, he is only good when he has no pressure.

Thanks, so no quota for Schell ...

1) How many quota places in womens -75kg freestlye? 2) Did Schell win one of them?

Good result for Aga on clay, Siegemund is on fire right now, apparently there is no way to stop her ... Aga might be the most consistent player (she is never really bad), but she needs to peak somewhere if she wants to win one of the 4 big tournaments. For me she is something like the female version of Andy Murray (without a slam), she is always very good at big tournaments, but something is always missing to win the whole thing. I hope that she will win a slam someday, she clearly deserves it, maybe she just has to wait for Serena to retire, then everything could be wide open ...

No, no reason to worry. It would be suicide by FIBA to ban all those nations, so it wont happen. Olympic tournament would be completely senseless otherwise ... In my opinion the probability that you get disqualified in mens water polo was/is higher ...

What about ? I cant tell you anything about your chances, you should ask MHSN, he is a true expert. You can find the results and draws here: https://unitedworldwrestling.org/event/1st-og-world-qualifying-tournament

Luisa Niemesch qualified! She is still pretty young (born in 1995) and a big talent (she won 2 silver medals at junior world championships), so she might surprise in Rio. I really like our wrestling team so far, but Schellin and especially Hassler have to qualify, otherwise it would be a big shock. I think that Schell (womens -75 kg), Dülger (mens freestyle -65 kg), Harth (mens freestyle -74 kg), Kaufmehl (mens freestyle -86 kg) and Cudinovic (mens freestyle -97 kg) can still qualify, but it would be a miracle if one of them would qualify here. Really disappointing that Schellin, Eisele, Öhler and Azizsir still didnt qualify, only one chance left for them.

Great results for us so far: 50 m rifle prone men: 1st place for Junghänel 10 m air rifle men: 4th place for Justus 10 m air rifle women: 3rd place for Gschwandtner 50 m rifle 3 positions women: 2nd place for Engleder 25 m pistol women: 4th place for Karsch Mens double trap: 5th place for Löw Womens trap: 3rd place for Scheibl 3 of our best events (50 m rifle 3 positions men, womens skeet and mens rapid fire pistol) and mens skeet are still to come. At the moment Reitz is clearly in the lead (mens rapid fire pistol) and Wenzel is also in first place after day 1, both of them should fight for a medal. In mens skeet Buchheim needs a very good second day to qualify for the final, i think it will take at least 120 to make the final, so Buchheim would need at least 73/75 on day 2. Only mens 50 m pistol, mens 10 m air pistol, womens 10 m air pistol and mens trap were a bit disappointing, but those are always our worst events. Qualification for womens rifle events will be very interesting. Engleder, Gschwandtner, Kreutzer and Gauß all deserve a place on the roster, but one of them might miss out. I really hope that Karsch will get a chance to compete in Rio, she could reach the final in both of her events, but i really dont know which quota place we should give back to get a quota place for Karsch. Löw and Justus were really good here, so they also should get a chance to compete at the olympics ...

Great run by Siegemund, she completely dominated Halep and Vinci. Now i hope for a german final. At the moment it looks as if 2 out of Beck/Friedsam/Siegemund will qualify for Rio and Lisicki/Görges/Barthel all will miss out, i never thought that this could really happen.

I know, i noticed it the same day i wrote it, but i was too lazy to correct it ... I will do it now.

Good wins for Beck and Siegemund, but Witthöft completely messed up. She served for the set and of course got broken, Ivanovic was a pretty easy draw today, but Witthöft as usual couldnt keep her nerves.

Utilitarianism might be the answer, but as a lawyer you probably dont like this "theory"?

Not really ... You should first try to understand the case and then you should learn a bit about genetics and biochemistry (maybe Wanderer can help you with that one). Semenya isnt a woman with a genetic advantage, she really cant be classified as a (genetically) "normal" woman. No one thinks that she is a woman with a special talent who should be banned, but most people doubt that she can even be classified as a woman.

Sorry, but where exactly did i say that Semenya is disgusting? I just find the thought that 3 athletes who absolutely dont look like women win the medals in womens 800 disgusting. Semenya did nothing wrong and i dont blame her for anything. I also dont understand why Semenya is allowed to compete but not someone like Rehm, although its obvious to anyone that Semenya has a bigger advantage. Semenya comes from a very poor background, most people would do the same in her situation, but IAAF has to exclude her from all womens competitions. Do you want to "hurt" the right of 3 or 4 woman or the right of all other women who have no chance against competitors like Semenya? CAS ruled that IAAF has to prove that Semenya has an advantage, i think the same would apply for Rehm, so he should have a good chance to compete in Rio, if he decides to sue IAAF. I know that IAAF has other problems (doping), but if they dont exclude Semenya now, she will win an olympic gold medal and i am sure that after that they will be forced to exclude Semenya. Semenya just has to hope that IAAF will be too busy to care for her case in the next couple of months, than i see no one who could stop her on her way to at least one olympic gold (maybe except Niyonsaba). You obviously didnt follow the case or you dont really know how to express yourself, otherwise i dont know what "Semenya has been tested and allowed to participate under the rules" is supposed to mean in this context. Dopers betray on purpose, they are cheaters, unlike Semenya, but in some sense she is "worse" than all dopers. Everyone can start to dope, in order to make up for the unfair advantage of dopers, but its impossible for other athletes to "copy" Semenya, they will never have the chance of running fast. In my opinion there are three fair options: 1) Semenya stays as she is and competes against men. 2) There has to be some new sort of "category" at the paralympic games for athletes like Semenya. 3) She takes whatever is required to lower her testosterone level, so that she has about the same level as "normal" woman.

I dont think that Felix wouldve been able to beat Schippers last year, at best they are at about the same level. Schippers is the favorite because she is younger, has more room for improvements and the 100/200 double is much easier than the 200/400 double. Dina Asher-Smith. Tori Bowie, SAFP or Candace Hill could also fight for a medal in Rio. Someone who runs 50.7 without serious opponents so early in season and wit negative splits can at least run 49.5 later in season. It might not be enough for gold, but it should be enough for a medal. I think Semenya doesnt want to get too much attention, so she will probably focus on 800 m and not run too crazy times, but i still dont see anyone beating her in Rio. Schippers has at least 50% to win the 200 m gold, i wouldnt bet anything against her, she has shown huge improvements every year. I think she has also a good chance to win the 100 m gold, the odds are probably 50% for SAFP, 30% for Schippers and 20% for the rest (Bowie, Ahoure, Okagbare and so on).

Yes and there were only about 50 minutes between her 400 m and her 800 m run and she had negative splits in those races ... Womens 800 m race will be really fun to watch, "she" will play with all those girls and then destroy them on the last lap without even trying hard. It would be really cool if she would break the world records of Koch and Kratochvilova. I always thought that the 400 m world record would be unbreakable, but now i think that Semenya is the only one who could break it in the next couple of years. Poor Allyson Felix, she is really in a trap ... At 200 m she cant beat Schippers and at 400 m she might be chanceless against Semenya.

I think Cielo, De Paula and Santos also have been caught before. De Paul made the team, but i am not sure if Cielo and Santos also will be on the team. It would be really funny if Brazil would compete with 4 cheater in Rio, even Russia will have less cheaters on the team.

Some crazy times from Semenya early in the season: 50.7 400 m (huge new PB) 1:58 800 m 4:10 1500 m (her fastest time since 2009) I hope that IAAF stops her before Rio, otherwise she will get the 800 m gold and probably also the 400 m gold. Womens 800 m could be the most disgusting event in Rio, we also have Niyonsaba and Wambui. In the end it might very well be possible that no real woman will win a medal. I also think that IAAF's policy is very unfair. Markus Rehm has to prove that he has no advantage if he wants to compete in Rio, but Semenya will be allowed to compete unless someone proves that she has an advantage (not that i would like to see Rehm competing in Rio).

1) Do you have a livestream that isnt geoblocked in Germany? 2) How many spots will romanian women have in Rio? 3) Why didnt Jurca compete here?

Its very well possible that Guy, Peaty, SMOC, CWH, Carlin or Halsall will perform better at the olympics. They knew that no one would be able to beat them at the trials and that they would come very close to the standard, so they didnt need to be at 100%. On the other hand athletes like Shuttleworth, Tutton or Litchfield might have peaked for this and they might be slower in Rio. I think Australia has shown at the last world championships that they learned how to perform at their best when it matters. I see at least 8 gold medals for Australia, USA will be clearly better than last year. I think 3 medals should be safe for you (2 x Guy + Peaty). All your other medal contenders will have to perform at their best for a medal. Carlin (Ledecky, Boyle, Ashwood, Van Rouwendaal, McLean), Halsall (C. Campbell, B. Campbell, Kromowidjojo, Sjöstrom), your mens 800 free relay (Australia, USA and France) and SMOC (Hosszu, Watanabe, DiRado) all have at least 3 very strong opponents. I think you can be very optimistic that you will win at least 4 medals. I think your goal of winning as many medals as in 2012 is extremely optimistic, i think you should be happy with 50 medals overall and i would really like to hear how you want to win more than 60 medals?

Womens 50 free: I expected at least 24.3 from Halsall, i thought she would win bronze in Rio, but now i am not so sure anymore, both Campbell sisters, Sjöstrom and Kromowidjojo should be ahead of her. My prediction: Halsall will reach the final but not finish better than 5th. Womens 100 free: No sub 54 time, i wouldnt nominate a 400 free relay, so no prediction needed. Womens 200 free: Disappointing times overall, especially for Carlin, only one girl sub 1:58. Great time from Coates. My prediction: I think Carlin should focus on 400/800 free. Your relay could reach the final, i think your federation should allow Coates to compete in the individual event. Womens 400 free: The best race for Carlin, but also a bit slower than expected. My prediction: Carlin will fight against Ahwood, Van Rouwendaal, Boyle and maybe the second american girl for silver and bronze. Womens 800 free: Extremely disappointing time from Carlin, i dont see how she wants to challenge for a medal in Rio. My prediction: Carlin reaches the final, but wont win a medal. Womens 100 breast: Good time from SMOC, disappointing time from Tutton and Renshaw, no girl sub 1:07. My prediction: SMOC should focus on 200 IM and maybe 200 free. Renshaw and Tutton should focus on 200 breast, so no british girl in womens 100 breast. Womens 200 breast: Great times from Tutton and Renshaw, both have to be safed. My prediction: Both british girls could reach the final and Tutton might have a tiny chance for a medal. Womens 100 fly: One of the most disappointing events, no girl should be nominated. I dont think that your medley relay could come close to a medal, so i wouldnt safe anyone for the medley relay only. My prediction: No british girl in womens 100 fly. Womens 200 fly: Great time from Large, but not a very good winning time, i still think that Lowe should be safed. My prediction: Lowe will reach the semifinal. Womens 100 back: Great time from Davies, but pretty slow from all other girls. My prediction: Davies will reach the final, but no chance for a medal. Womens 200 IM: Very solid time from SMOC, the rest about as fast as expected. My prediction: SMOC will win a minor medal in Rio with sub 2:09. Womens 400 IM: Good times from Miley and Willmott. Especially Rudin was very disappointing. My preciction: Both reach the final, but probably no medal. Willmott might have a very small chance for bronze. Disappointing times: Mens fly/back/IM, womens fly, womens 200 back, womens 100 breast, womens 50/100/200/800 free Ok/as good as expected times: Mens breast, mens free, womens 400 free, womens IM Good/better than expected times: Womens 200 breast, womens 100 back My medal predictions: Gold for Peaty and Guy (200 free) Good chance for silver or bronze for Guy (400 free), Carlin (400 free), SMOC (200 IM), mens 800 free relay Small chance for silver or bronze for Proud (50 free), mens medley relay (very small chance), Willis (200 breast), Halsall (50 free), Carlin (800 free), Tutton (200 breast), Willmott (400 IM) I think overall 6 medals and two of them in gold would be a realistic goal for british swimming in Rio.