OlympicsFan

Hi, i think before the Rio olympics we had a thread where everyone could predict the number of athletes his/her nation would qualify for the olympics. I think it would be nice to have that again and if no one else already planned to do it, i would like to open a thread like that. Of course we aren't in a hurry, considering that it will be a couple more months before the first qualification events will take place, i just wanted to see if there is any interest in a thread like that?

92.70 m for Vetter in Leiria in pouring rain ...

Second world cup win for Dreßen and still no victory for Svindal at his home world cup! Dreßen is now 3rd in the downhill world cup, only the 2nd time in world cup history that a german is top 3 in this discipline (the other time was in 1967)! The last time that a german was in top 3 in downhill/super-g was Markus Wasmeier in 1988. I think this is the first time ever that a german won 2 downhill races in one season ...

Does anyone know when the next event will start (i think it's men's 1000 m)? Thanks!

That's true, i realized it too when having a closer look at the results. I think in men's 1500 m two german guys were ahead of the best dutch guy, that also doesn't happen very often. No reason to worry though, i think you have some great talentes already in that event, isn't Roest very young too? In men's 500/1000 m you have Dai Dai Ntab as well. On the men's side the biggest talents currently seem to come from South Korea and Norway (Johansson).

1) If the number of people practicing hig level sport and the overall budget remained the same, than it wouldn't be logical that the number of italian medals stays at the same level over the years. GB, Japan, China and some eastern european countries invested more and more money over the last decade or so and globally the number of people who were able to practice certain sports constantly increased, so with the same money you should get less medals nowadays, of course this doesn't take the new events into consideration. 2) Makes sense, i didn't know that Italy was so good in karate and to be honest i don't care about those new sports. I think Italy should win 2 more medals in fencing, 1-2 more medals in shooting/archery and at least 1 more medal in swimming (although i don't see Quadarella winning a medal at the olympics), so this should easily be enough for at least 30 medals, although i am not sure whether 10-12 golds are a lock (Again: I don't know how good Italy is in karate, are there any safe italian golds in karate?).

I wouldn't interpret too much into it. Lea-Sophie Scholz broke the german junior record and at the world cup final a couple of days ago the german junior records in men's 500/1000/1500 m were broken on this track as well. I doubt that Scholz is better than Pechstein, Friesinger and so on were at the same age. Results at junior level are basically the same as at senior level, so no hope that the dutch dominance will end any time soon, sadly.

1) I don't really get it ... With sports that already had top tier championships, you took the results from there and for every other sports you just predicted the results? I think there will be 324 events in Tokyo, so we should have more than 700 medals (thanks to judo and so on) in total. Why didn't you for example take the best non-chinese athlete in table tennis as bronze medal winner? 3) So you made predictions for hockey and shooting, but not for equestrian or football? Why?

Currently the women's 3 positions final is taking place, you can watch it here: http://www.issf-sports.org/pages/livestream.ashx Later on there will also be men's rapid fire final. Do we already know how the shooting qualification will work for Tokyo? Will it be the same as for Rio and when will the first quote places be distributed?

Thanks for bringing that up! I just "discovered" one of the most amazing (in my opinion) coincidences in olympic/sports history. Have a look at Italy's results (number of golds/medals in total) at the last 3 summer olympics ... just incredible! Back to your original point: 1) Why must the italian goal always be to win 30-35 medals, 10-12 of them in gold? 2) Why do you think that it will be easy?

2 questions: 1) What happens with the remaining medals? 2) Why does the US lose about 10 medals, while Canada more than doubles it's medal count from 12 to 26? 37 medals would be disappointing for Germany. Germany currently has 33 medals and football, hockey, equestrian and shooting aren't included till now, so it would be disappointing if Germany would only gain 4 medals in those sports, i think it's more likely that Germany will win 10-12 medals in those events.

That's nice, but i am still waiting for someone to deliver some facts, apparently this isn't possible, so for me this discussion is over for now. If this some kind of revenge for me embarrassing you in the "2018 track cycling world championships" thread, than i can only apologize, i didn't think that this would be so though for you.

Yeah, i thought it was in your interest to postpone it, because there are no results that support your opinion for now, but if she does well at the next worlds, i am willing to change my opinion. For now there is nothing that supports the idea that Gros is a medal favorite or maybe even a lock for a medal at the next olympics.

Cutrone is WAY BETTER than Mbappe? WHAT? Sorry, but ... this can't be your honest opinion. Italy has some nice talent, but none of them is anywhere near the talent level of Mbappe or Dembele (maybe expect for Donnarumma). I get that some of your predictions are only semi-serious (5 medals in track cycling, 13 medals in fencing), but this is on another level.

If France takes the football tournament seriously, then i see no chance for Italy there. Germany is rather weak in the category of players born in 1997 or later, so that should be no problem for Italy. France could play with talents like Dembele, Hernandez, Mbappe, Aouar, Upamecano or Augustin. Sadly England won't compete, they seriously could have challenged for gold with guys like Rashford, Sessegnon, Foden or Sancho. France usually messes up the qualification tournaments, so who knows ... ? Brazil usually takes the olympic football tournament very seriously and they don't have any major international tournament that year, so they could be really strong as well that year with guys like Jesus, Malcolm or Vinicius Junior.

1) Thanks, but i still don't get it. You assume that she would have been better otherwise, which is fine, but how do you know that ... : a) ... Grabosch was in top shape when they met in 2017? You are taking her as a reference, but Grabosch exploded since the last world championships, improving her flying lap time by about 0.25 seconds. b) ... Gros would have shown the same development as Grabosch without the injury? Grabosch is training with Vogel every day, while Gros doesn't have any athlete who is even remotely world class to train with (correct me if i am wrong). In addition to that even Grabosch was chanceless against Vogel and i doubt that it would have looked much different if she would have had to compete against Ligtlee, Morton, Marchant or James in top shape. Why do you think that she will end up better than at least 3 out of Marchant/Morton/James/Vogel/Ligtlee? None of them will be even 30 by the 2020 olympics, so they are unlikely to get worse. I am not saying that Gros can't medal, i just don't see any reason to think that she is that much of a talent that she is bound to do it. You assume it because she won 3 golds at junior worlds and set a junior world record, shortly before her 18th birthday? Grabosch also won 3 individual golds and set multiple junior world records. Vogel won 6 golds at junior worlds, she won gold in the sprint and the 500 m time trial as a 16 year old, so what makes Gros such a special talent?

I think all the medallists focused on the world championships this year, probably many other too. I think apart from GB, New Zealand, Australia + maybe Ligtlee everyone focused on this event. What does 2017 WC or even 2017 EC have to do with the shape they are currently in? Grabosch was about 0.25 faster in qualification than last year, that's a huge improvement. The fact that she trains with Vogel every day gives her a huge advantage, i first want to see Gros getting the same results at senior level before i put Gros in the same category. Even if she would be on the same level as Grabosch, there are many other riders to consider, since the british girls + Ligtlee were missing and the russian/chinese girls seemed completely out of shape. She has a chance to win a medal in 2 years, but acting as if she is a safe bet or even a medal favorite is completely insane given her results so far. Out of the top 4 from the olympics only 1 athlete was here, all of those girls will be young enough to compete again in Tokyo. It probably would be best to postpone this discussion at least until the end of next year's world championships ...

Did any athlete in track cycling peak for european championships ... EVER?

That would only mean "no two boats of one nation in K4". The rules are not very fair in general. Why is it allowed to have more than one double in tennis but only one duo in diving? Maybe they only allow a nation to compete with two different K2's, if that nation has enough athletes in K4/K1 qualified to form 2 K2's? That would also be unfair, because what would happen with C2? It all seems to be rather tricky ... Personally i would only allow multiple athletes of one nation in K1/C1, but not K2/C2/K4. In Rio men's C2 was probably the least competitive event, so i would have preferred to see IOC cutting that event and keeping C1/K1 200 m, but that's just me. Considering that most nations seem to have huge problems to find one semi-decent team in C2, i doubt that allowing nations to enter more than one C2 would really make a difference ...

My expectations concerning number of medals: I won't include the newly added sports, because i don't follow them and don't care about them. Sadly we don't have the "How many athletes of your nation will qualify for the 2020 olympics" thread that we had before the last olympics ... until now, but i guess that's just because we don't know the qualifying procedure until now ... ? Archery: 1-2 medals (women's team, women's individual) Athletics: 6-7 medals (1-2 x men's javelin throw, men's discus throw, men's shot put, decathlon, men's pole vault, men's triple jump, men's 20 km race walking, women's 1500 m, women's 5000 m, women's 100 m hurdles, women's 3000 m SC, women's 4 x 100 m, women's long jump, women's shot put, women's discus throw, women's javelin throw, heptathlon) Badminton: - Basketball: - Boxing: 1 medal (On the men's side: Baraou, Harutyunyan, Kadiru) Canoeing slalom: 2 medals Canoeing sprint: 6-8 medals Cycling road: - Cycling track: 4 medals (1-2 x women's sprint, women's keirin, women's team sprint, men's sprint) BMX: - Mountainbike: - Diving: 1 medal Equestrian: 6 medals (I hope that Germany will finally win a jumping gold medal) Fencing: - Field hockey: 2 medals Football: 2 medals Golf: - Rhythmic gymnastics: - Trampoline: - Artistic gymnastics: 1-2 medals (Both on the women's side) Handball: 1 medal Judo: 3-4 medals (Germany had really good junior results in the last couple of years, i think there are 4-6 talents on the women's side that could turn out really strong + Wieczerzak and Vargas-Koch) Modern pentathlon: - Rowing: 4-5 medals (I hope that the tradition of Germany winning medals in both quadruple skulls events and men's eight will continue + i really expect a lot in men's single skulls) Rugby: - Sailing: - Shooting: 4 medals (Of course the retirements of Junghänel and Engleder hurt, but Reitz and Karsch are still there. Reitz even seems to become a force in air pistol now ... Engleder got "replaced" by Beer + other athletes like Brodmeier, Link and Haaga should combine for another medal. I think the changes really helped Germany, in my opinion no medal chances were lost, but 2 new medal chances were created with the mixed air rifle/pistol team events) Swimming: 1 medal (hopefully Germany will become stronger in open water swimming again, but sadly that doesn't seem very likely ...) Synchronized swimming: - Table tennis: 3 medals (I think the changes helped Germany, a new medal chance in the mixed team event) Taekwondo: - Tennis: 1-2 medals (Sadly the olympics won't be for another 2.5 years, right now Kerber and Görges would win 1-2 medals alone. Only a second top 15-20 player on the men's side is missing, Kuhn is on his way to become just that, sadly he doesn't compete for Germany anymore ...) Triathlon: - Volleyball: - Beach volleyball: 1 medal Water polo: - Weightlifting: - Wrestling: 2 medals Total: 52-60 medals The number seems really high, but i actually think it's not unrealistic. Germany has actually a lot of room for improvements in athletics (only 3 medals in 2016), canoeing slalom (no medal in 2016), cycling (only 2 medals in 2016) and judo (only 1 medal in 2016) + the new events in shooting and table tennis should help Germany. We also shouldn't forget that out of all the individual medallists from Rio only 4 reitred/will be too old to compete in Tokyo.

I don't think so, I think you are much better in taekwondo (1 medal in Beijing), artistic gymnastics (1 medal in Beijing) or diving (0 medals in Beijing) now. I would say 55-60 medals are absolutely realistic for GB.

Germany had the same problems, 0 medals on the first 3 days and then 3 medals on day 4.

What exactly does that mean? You see her as a medal favorite in 2020? I doubt that she alone will be enough to lead France to a medal in team sprint, so this leaves only keirin and sprint. In both events we will have Vogel and Morton (who will both be 29 in Tokyo), Ligtlee (who will be 26 in Tokyo), the british girls, the chinese girls and the russian girls. In keirin we will also have Degrendele. Grabosch was born in 1998 while Gros was born in 1999, we saw at the recent world championships how big the gap between those two is, so i honestly wouldn't expect any medals from Gros in Tokyo.

I actually think that a nation should be allowed to enter 3 athletes in every event, of course only if they are good enough to qualify. Why can the US have 3 athletes in women's 100 m hurdles while China can only have 2 athletes in men's table tennis?

Are we talking about sprint or slalom? I don't think that Germany would profit much from being allowed to enter more than one boat, maybe except for men's K1, don't know about Hungary ... I would still like to know why you can enter 3 or more athletes in some events but only 1 in other events ... ?