OlympicsFan

I would only consider Lyles (200 m), Van Niekerk, Barshim, Samba and maybe Toth/Shubenkov big favorites. I am a bit surprised about your picks in mens 100 m (What has Lyles shown to justify being called the top favorite there?), mens 800 m, mens pole vault (what about Lavillenie and Duplantis?), mens long jump (what about Echevarria?), mens triple jump (what about Taylor?), mens shot put (what about the american guys?), mens discus throw (what about Harting, Stahl and Dacres?), mens javelin throw (what about Röhler and Hofmann?), decathlon (what about Mayer?) and hammer throw (a lot of new talents from Hungary/Ukraine + Fajdek + Pronkin).

For me the only really big favorites among those are: Lasitskene, Perkovic, Woldarczyk, Thiam and maybe Chepkoech. I dont think you can just name "someone from Kenya" as favorite, you have to name a certain athlete and personally i wouldnt name relays or teams, but if i would, the american 4 x 400 relays would certainly be among the biggest favorites.

The new german depth in mens single sculls is just crazy, the 3rd best german athlete in this age group (behind Naske and Zeidler, who both would have been allowed to compete) won the silver medal ...

Russians: I dont see anyone who could reach 80 m + i dont think they will be back by then. Americans: I dont think they can throw 78 m at a major competition + i hope that they will be caught sooner than later.

Since the introduction of womens 200 free into the olympics (1968) no woman older than 27 has won a medal in this event, so it would be really something for Pellegrini to win a medal at 32. About Campriani: I agree that he is too young, the same is true for Henri Junghänel and in my opinion also Barbara Engleder, but they owe nothing to the federation and can determine on their own how they want to lead their life. I am not sure whether he will be the favorite just like that, he certainly will need some time to get back to his old level, but if he gets there, he will certainly be among the favorites.

Wlodarczyk?

Also dont sleep on Regan Smith, Taylor Ruck and the australian girls + i dont know how well Fu Yuanhui is doing currently, might be the only swimming event without any europeans in the final (sadly).

Have you ever rowed in Japan? No? Then how would you know whether its realistic for a boat to sink in an olympic final or not?

Maybe not a "realistic" chance, but i wouldnt say its impossible. Kokhan who is one year older than Hilbig threw 74.74 m with the 5 kg hammer 2 years ago (which is basically where Hilbig is now), 1 year later he threw 71.42 m with the 7.26 kg hammer. If the entry standard will be at 74-75 m, then Hilbig might have a small chance. Of course Mikhailov is more likely to make it, hopefully he can recover from this rather bad season.

Of course USA in basketball is the biggest favorite, but saying that they could win with a D team on the mens side is probably a bit exaggerated.

Aaaand its gone ... Maybe we will lead a completely different conversation next year, depending on how the canadian talents in womens freestyle develop.

He is absolutely hopeless in the 200 breast and i think the 50 breast still isnt olympic, but i agree about 100 breast.

How old will Pellegrine be by then? Must be around 40. I think not winning her 40th gold medal at world championships by losing to Pellegrini wasnt something that gave Ledecky nightmares. Where exactly was Pellegrini at the last two olympics?

Thats (Roglic in mens TT) is exactly the kind of prediction i was thinking about. Lets see what he will do in 2 years.

Thanks for opening this thread, although it developed a bit different than expected. I only thought about individual events. Something like "Caeleb Dressel is one of the biggest favorites in mens 100 free, because he won the gold medal at the world championships last year by 0.7 seconds and he will only improve given his age" and then in 2 years we might see him not even making the team ... or: "Caster Semenya in womens 800 m is one of the biggest favorites, she hasnt lost a race in 10 years, so she will definitly win the gold medal in Tokyo" just to see her completly disappearing after the new rules kick in. If we talk about team sports, then of course USA in basketball is the biggest favorite.

Swimming: In 2016 Germany had 29 athletes in swimming, i think it will be about the same this time. Lambertz sadly always wants to nominate relays, so there you already have about 20 athletes, if you add open water, you are at 24-25 and then we have athletes like Köhler, Wellbrock, Hentke, Heintz who are probably gonna make it too. Athletics: I was surprised to see that Germany had 85 athletes in 2016, my surprise probably came from the fact that many of those athletes didnt even make it past the first round and i therefore didnt really notice them. I think it would be better to send 60-70 athletes who mostly have a realistic chance of at least finishing top 12. For example i am not sure whether it would really make sense to nominate any male runners (maybe except for Traber) or any athletes in marathon (maybe except for Melat Yisak Kejeta, if she will be allowed to compete for Germany). One of the most interesting questions for me currently is whether Germany will qualify someone in hammer throw. I hope that one of the talents (Fromm on the womens side, Mikhailov/Hilbig on the mens side) breaks through, but the entry standards are probably gonna be insane again in field events, so i dont really have much hope.

Its a scandal, nothing else. Imagine if federations would only be allowed to nominate 4 athletes for relays in swimming or athletics. Anyone who says that this has been done to have less athletes at the game must be stupid, IOC did it to make for less predictable outcomes, which is an even bigger scandal. They probably got tired of the german dominance in eventing and dressage so they tried to find a way of ending it.

Yes and Görges let Danilovic play very well ...

Yeah, thats one way of looking at it. The other way is that Jule was serving horribly and wasnt fully there after her great Wimbledon run. In the end its probably a combination of both.

Why even have qualification at all? Lets just allow everyone to compete, the IAAF strategy so to say.

Is it a true irish team or an england light version (playing with players who werent good enough the make the english team)? I hope its the first.

Argentinian fans are probably crying out of joy, finally they can see their players winning, considering that it didnt really go that well for their first team so far.

I think its a good idea. Do you feel the same about other sports? For example the dutch werent allowed to play at the football world cup just because they werent good enough during qualification which ended a year before the world cup.

About womens 200 back: Franklin was certainly faster as a junior (2:04.06 at the 2012 olympics), but FINA doesnt count those times. I think junior world records were introduced in 2014 or 2015 and only times achieved since then + times swum at previous editions of junior world championships count as junior world records. In many other events the official junior world records arent the fastest times ever swum by a junior, for example: In mens 400 free the junior world record officially is 3:44.60 by Mack Horton from 2014, while Ian Thorpe swam 3:40.59 as a junior at the 2000 olympics. Danila Izotov swam 1:43.90 in the 200 free as a junior in 2009, but the record is 1:46.40 by Ivan Girev from 2017. Michael Phelps swam 1:55.94 in the 200 IM as a junior, at the 2003 world championships but the record is 1:57.06 by Qin Haiyang from 2017. Kosuke Hagino swam 4:08.94 in the 400 IM as a junior at the 2012 olympics, but the record is 4:14.00 by Sean Grieshop from 2014. On the womens side 24.33 by Rikako Ikee from 2017 in the 50 free is a record instead of 23.99 by Cate Campbell from 2009. In the 100 back the record is 58.95 by Regan Smith from last year instead of 58.33 by Franklin from 2012. In the 200 fly its 2:06.29 by Hasegawa instead of 2:04.72 by Jiao Liuyang. In the 200 IM its 2:09.98 by Ikee instead of 2:07.57 by Ye Shiwen and in the 400 IM its 4:39.01 by Rosie Rudin instead of 4:28.43 by Ye Shiwen. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_junior_world_records_in_swimming

Athletics: My current prediction is 63, so it should be something between 60 and 70. Basketball: I think the men's team has a good chance, i would say only Spain, Serbia and France are stronger. Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Turkey, Italy, Slovenia are all about on the same level at best. Boxing: I think 6 is too optimistic. On the womens side i would say only Apetz has a chance and on the mens side there are 5 guys with a chance, but only if you count Harutyunyan who became a pro last year. My guess would be 3-4 (Apetz, Baraou, Ibrahim and maybe Harutyunyan). Fencing: I dont see Germany qualifying 9 athletes. I think 6 or 7 would be the best possible outcome. Football: I think the mens team will struggle to say the least, the guys born in 1997 or later are very weak. Judo: 12-14 is definitely too optimistic in my opinion, i think 8 would be good. Rowing: The situation is pretty promising, but i for example dont see Germany qualifiying a boat in womens eight. Sailing: I think you are too optimistic, but lets see, my guess would be 4-6 boats (Buhl, Jurczok/Lorenz and 2 out of the remaining categories). Taekwondo: I think 3 would be very good given the current situation. Volleyball: I think no team qualifying is definitely more realistic than both qualifying. I think the mens team is clearly stronger, but they have a more difficult path to qualify. So what would be your conclusion? How many german athletes realistically in Tokyo? Will it be a bigger team than in Rio (athletes in new sports excluded)?