JoshMartini007

Right now the assumption is the top two athletes of each nation will compete in all events they are eligible for. For athletes like Sjostrom or Hosszu the events they are listed may not match the events they will compete in. Once we know for sure I'll remove them from those events. For Sweden they also have chances at winning medals in the 4x100m free and medley relays which slightly boosts their chances. Overall, the over/underperformance is pretty much due to how well a nation performed in 2019, it doesn't take into account injuries. The main focus is to get all the sports up, but there will be at least one more update closer to the games.

Here are my medal projections for swimming. Unsurprisingly the United States and Australia are the top nations.

Yeah, a 1m platform is essentially diving into a partially filled pool...

Though now thinking about it, a 247 is a pretty high score in women's 1m. That would have placed her in 7th at the World Champs... It could have been a typo...

There aren't any 10m results, those are 1m...

Yeah, the only thing I can confirm so far is that the event did take place. It doesn't help that the South African Swimming Federation decided to take a vacation.

If you discount Nicole's score then Canada finishes with 84.07 points (seventh place). The disaster of a first qualifier from Lisa Ann Carlsen would count as Canada would only have a team of three athletes so no scores would be dropped. The only way to save Canada's quota would be to argue that Walker shouldn't be disqualified.

Yeah, it's pretty sad... Sadly, they aren't the first or last federation to make that mistake. I'm not sure if the people in the Brazilian Equestrian Federation are paid, but if they are then there should be some firings. You can argue that language may have been a barrier (the qualification documents are published in English and French), but Google Translate exists and as soon as you start seeing things like MER in the eligibility section then it would be time to start asking questions.

Now for the tough one, finding the results for the African Championships...

Yeah, the lack of competitions in heptathlon hurts the model. In the end KJT had two out of the three top performances of the year with only Thiam being anywhere close so I'm not surprised she ended up with such a high chance. Obviously not, I'll probably remove those performances when(if?) she competes or she gets dropped due to not participating at the Olympics. Yeah, currently I don't take competition importance into account as it can be quite subjective. Basically, the model acknowledges he can theoretically achieve those results and thus gives him a decent chance. We'll see what 2020 brings him.

Is there a website with results or just the above stream?

You are correct, I misread the wiki page

New Zealand are guaranteed the two women's quotas as Australia already qualified the maximum quotas (whether New Zealand accepts them is a different story)

That's not even a huge issue. Events go until midnight at the Olympics, that would make it 1pm Tahiti time, the competition would have already started (weather permitting) by then

Yeah, I have no issue with surfing being in Tahiti, especially given its importance to the surfing world, but I've always been of the opinion that the Olympics were heading towards a host nation rather than a host city. France is a bit unique in that its borders can be found around the world.

Talk about cutting it close. Hopefully they don't have any French judges to keep things unbiased...

For anyone interested, here's what my prediction model suggests on medal chances for each event in athletics. I may have to change to a hybrid model for long distance (5000m, 10000m, walks and marathon) events as quite often the pace/strategy is different in each race. The low number of competitions for some athletes caused a couple of weird results so hopefully they continue to compete in 2020. Below are the athletes with a greater than 50% chance at winning the gold medal in an event. Caster Semenya - Women's 800m - 99.21% Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Women's Heptathlon - 81.91% Daniel Stahl - Men's Discus Throw - 79.45% Kenenisa Bekele - Men's Marathon - 74.30% Yulimar Rojas - Women's Triple Jump - 69.93% Shaunae Miller-Uibo - Women's 400m - 69.11% United States - Men's 4x400m Relay - 64.21% Pawel Fajdek - Men's Hammer Throw - 62.18% United States - Women's 4x400m Relay - 57.65% Will Claye - Men's Triple Jump - 55.80% Malaika Mohambo - Women's Long Jump - 55.50% Brigid Kosgei - Women's Marathon - 52.18% Shaunae Miller-Uibo - Women's 200m - 51.51% Karsten Warholm - Men's 400m Hurdles - 50.75%

Watch the team be called "Olympic Athletes from Россия"

Yeah, I was looking through the rankings and saw China and Ukraine were maybe in trouble. I also thought Qatar was safe, but I decided to check the non-Group A/B nations just to make sure. Looks like China used 5.1 to their benefit.

Nice, much easier than going through the rankings. So Qatar needs one more athlete while Ukraine needs two.

For jumping, does the MER have to be at a Grand Prix Table A or can it be at a Table A event?

They can still qualify to the final Olympic tournament via their performance at the European Championship. They need four of to finish in the top seven at the World Championship.

Do you know if India or South Africa are competing in an eventing event so that they can get their MER?

So assuming there's no big changes on the final day the continental reallocations will be as follows in the women's 49erFX ---> and ---> and in the mixed Nacra 17 Foiling --->

I think I've finalized the code (at least for events with timed/measured results) for the medal prediction project I'm working on. You can see the men's 100m example here Overall I am able to limit the number of athletes from a single nation. Therefore, for the men's 100m it now has three athletes from the United States. Currently the three best performers are listed, but it can easily be changed to the actual team once the selection process is complete. Let me know how you think it looks on the site.