stratocumulus

A while ago, I mentioned how there were a concerning number of qualifiers in the men's 400m IM. Today, based on the results that happened at Canadian Olympic Trials today, I would like to talk about another event with a concerning amount of qualifiers. That would be the Women's 100m Freestyle. Here's roughly where things stand today. In 2016, the OQT was 54.43. Then despite the reduction of quotas in 2020, the OQT still stood relatively constant only decreasing by 0.05 seconds to 54.38. This cycle, it's decreased by a whopping 0.77 SECONDS TO 53.61.
 
Now why such the large drop, you ask? Well you have to remember that World Aquatics has a method they use to derive each OQT. For the Olympics, they use the faster of the 14th place time in the heats of the last Olympics, or the OQT of the Olympics before. It just so happened that the 14th place finisher at Tokyo had a time of 53.61 and that's how we have the standard we have today. Now let's see how many qualifiers we have as of today:
 
 
NOC ATHLETE 1
QUALIFICATION EVENT
RESULT ATHLETE 2
QUALIFICATION EVENT
RESULT
Australia
2 Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 1
TBD
OQT
X
Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 2
TBD
OQT
X

Canada
0 OLEKSIAK Penny
Bell Canadian Olympic & Paralympic Trials 2024
OCT
53.66
   
Czechia
0 SEEMANOVÁ Barbora
World Aquatics Championships 2024
OCT
53.76
   
France
2 GASTALDELLO Béryl
Giant Open Final 2023
OQT
53.60
WATTEL Marie
World Aquatics Championships 2023
OQT
53.59

Great Britain
2 ANDERSON Freya
British National Championships 2023
OQT
53.48
HOPKIN Anna
World Aquatics Championships 2024
OQT
53.09

Hong Kong
1 HAUGHEY Siobhán
World Aquatics Swimming World Cup Berlin 2023
OQT
52.02
   
Netherlands
1 STEENBERGEN Marrit
World Aquatics Championships 2024
OQT
52.26
   
People's Republic of China
2 WU Qingfeng
Chinese National Championships 2024
OQT
53.25
YANG Junxuan
Chinese National Championships 2024
OQT
52.68

Sweden
1 COLEMAN Michelle
World Aquatics Championships 2023
OQT
53.41
 
 

United States of America
2 Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 1
TBD
OQT
X
Maximum Quota exceeded, Athlete 2
TBD
OQT
X
 
As you can see, there are currently 13 projected qualifiers and to be honest, it's hard to see who else could reach that time. Sarah Sjoestroem has also gone under the OQT of 53.61 but she's already said she's not swimming this event so I've removed her. And of these swimmers, there's a chance they all won't be picked by their National Federations to swim it. Gastaldello and Wattel have both only reached the OQT once during the qualification period. There's a good chance they don't swim the time at French Trials so I'm not sure what the French Swimming Federation do about that. Freya Anderson was sick during British Trials so she didn't swim the time required at Trials. Not sure if British Swimming will let her swim this event either. Everyone else with an OQT should be fine.
 
Most events have over 20 qualifiers or at least in the high teens. So why so few qualifiers in this event (especially when both the 50m and 200m freestyle events have 20 qualifiers)? Well let's take a look at who the top 14 athletes were at the 2020 Olympic heats and what their qualification status is today.
 
1.  Emma McKeon (52.13) - Achieved OQT
2.  Siobhan Haughey (52.70) - Achieved OQT
3.  Anna Hopkin (52.75) - Achieved OQT
4.  Cate Campbell (52.80) - Achieved OQT
5.  Sarah Sjoestroem (52.91) - Achieved OQT, wont swim this event
6.  Penny Oleksiak (52.95) - Injured in late 2022, didn't get back to form until Canadian Trials, missed OQT by 0.05 seconds
7.  Pernille Blume (52.96)- Retired
8.  Yang Junxuan (53.02) - Achieved OQT
9.  Femke Heemskerk (53.10) - Retired
10.  Kayla Sanchez (53.12) - Started representing the Philippines last year. Hasn't come close to breaking 54 second since, let alone 53.61
11.  Abbey Weitzeil (53.21) - Achieved OQT
12.  Michelle Coleman (53.53) - Achieved OQT
13.  Signe Bro (53.54) - Times peaked in Tokyo. Has only been under 54 seconds once since then. Failed to reach OQT.
14.  Freya Anderson (53.61) - Achieved OQT
 
So of the 14, 9 have reached the OQT (of which one won't swim this event), two have retired, and 3 have declined in performance.
 
If we go further down the heat list,  Charlotte Bonnet (53.67) isn't focusing on freestyle anymore,  Marie Wattel (53.71) does have the OQT but has only reached it once this qualification period,  Ranomi Kromowidjojo (53.71) retired,  Erika Brown (now Connolly) (53.87) doesn't have the OQT,  Wu Qingfeng (53.87) does have the OQT,  Maria Kameneva (53.92) is banned,  Barbora Seemanova (53.98) has the consideration time so she could swim it, and I'm not sure what happened with  Andrea Murez (54.01) but she doesn't have the OQT either. Then there was a huge gap in times after Murez with the next fastest being 54.69. So of the top 22 swimmers from the Tokyo Olympic heats, only 11 swimmers have achieved the OQT.
 
Another problem is that hardly any swimmers have emerged or broken out in this event over the last 3 years. If we don't include athletes from the US, Australia or China, only  Marrit Steenbergen has had a breakthrough.
 
So let's take a look at the 2023 World Championships to see what kind of field we were dealing with.
 
 Haughey,  Weitzeil,  McKeon,  Wattel,  Coleman,  Steenbergen,  O'Callaghan,  Cheng Yujie were 1-8 in heats and all have the OQT.
 
#9 was  Stephanie Balduccini. Her PB is 54.05 set this year. She's still young though (19 years old) so if anyone not qualified yet could have a drop in time, it would be her.
 
Then #10,11, and 12 are  Gastaldello,  Kate Douglass, and  Yang who all have the time.
 
#13 was Sofia Morini. Her PB is 54.21 (0.8 seconds off the OQT).
#14 was  Aimee Canny. Her PB is 54.60 (almost a full second off the OQT). She is qualified in the 200m freestyle though.
#15 was  Signe Bro. Already talked about her.
#16 was  Rikako Ikee. Has been as fast as 52.79 before but hasn't swam the same since her leukemia diagnosis in 2019.
 
So as you can see, the field today is a lot less competitive than it was in Tokyo. At least most of these swimmers qualified in the relay events though. As a fan of swimming, it's just really frustrating to see athletes being unable to qualify because of insane qualification times compared to other events that have easier qualification times. Here's some other facts to show how absurd the OQT is:
 
 Summer McIntosh (who's best stroke is freestyle) has the OQT in the 100m backstroke and 100m butterfly and yet her PB is still 0.29 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT  Barbora Seemanova (primarily a 100 and 200m freestyler) has the 200m freestyle OQT, even has the 400m freestyle and 100m butterfly OQTs (two events she doesn't specialize in) and yet is still 0.15 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT  Kornelia Fiedkiewicz is ranked 22nd this year in both the 50 and 100m freestyle events. She has the OQT in the 50m freestyle but yet is still 0.4 seconds off the 100m freestyle OQT  Alex Shackell (freestyler and butterflyer) has the OQT's in the 200m freestyle, 100m butterfly and 200m butterfly and is still off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.5 seconds  Mary-Sophie Harvey has had a breakout meet at Canadian Trials this year. She beat the 100m butterfly OQT by 0.6 seconds, beat the 200m freestyle OQT by 1.8 seconds but was still off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.1 seconds. Maggie MacNeil (who's second best stroke is freestyle) was also off the 100m freestyle OQT by 0.03 seconds. Yet she has the OQT in the 100m backstroke (her 3rd best stroke) during an event she wasn't tapered in.  
So in conclusion, there will be very few qualifiers through the OQT, the heats will be uneventful, and there's a good chance we'll see multiple universality athletes reach the semifinals. 
 
The other events that have a concerning number of qualifiers are the women's distance events but at least they go directly to finals after heats. I could do another post about those events if you guys are interested.

For Poland  according to Polish Boxing Association:
 
Durkacz in, Brach out.
 
https://pzb.com.pl/10-region/4347-kwalifikacje-olimpijskie-zwyciestwo-damiana-durkacza

Athlete quotas can vary wildly in rowing depending on which boat qualifies. Here are the biggest winners and losers by number of boats vs. 2020 (ignoring Belarus/Russia).
 
Winners
 +3 boats
 +3 boats
 +2 boats
 +2 boats
 +2 boats
 +2 boats
 
Losers
 -8 boats
 -4 boats
 -3 boats
 -2 boats (might get tripartite quota)
 
Everyone else either gained or lost one boat or had no change.

Speedskating?

An absolute disaster for Poland 
 
With only six athletes and two boats we have reached a historical low in our rowing history. Last time we had this small team in... 1968 with only three athletes (but with only 26 athletes in total possible, so the quotient is very similar in 2024). In the 21st century we always had 20 or nearly 20 athletes qualified, so 6 this olympic cycle is a total disaster.
 
According to the Polish Ministry of Sport, 2024 the Rowing Federation was awarded 14,7M PLN for the targeted preparations to the olympic start (https://www.gov.pl/attachment/af98eca0-deee-41a5-9764-26038d879f58, "Polski Związek Towarzystw Wioślarskich"), which was the 3rd most financed Polish sport federation (after the athletics and canoeing federations - which are both expected to deliver medals in Paris). Even though historically the Polish Rowing Federation was a good performer, something cracked since the last Olympics.
 
The last two years were very sad time for Polish rowing fans. Let us hope it is just a temporary backlash. 

Maher Ben Hlima qualified with 1:20:06 on 20km race walk at race in La Coruna 

Mission became finally a 2032 Universality Nation is going well.
 
 
Slovak sport has found another rock bottom. For the first time in history, we will not compete in Canoeing Sprint
 
nothing better for the moral than such lovely newspapers titles to read in the evening while tuning on your PC.