Coming back to this to compare the pre-Olympics predictions to the actual results. Not saying I was a great predictor. I had some blind spots in sports that I didn't even list as a possibility . My predictions of 30 medals came short by 3.
Alpine Skiing: Predicted 3, Actual 4.
Required the whole ski team to get this result. Each medal went to a unique athelte. I thought it would be Shiffrin's games, but she still got her piece of the gold pie.
Bobsleigh: Predicted 1, Actual 3.
Proud of predicting the monobob win, but 3 was the max number I thought possible.
Cross-Country Skiing: Predicted 3, Actual 3
Got the right number, but 2 men's medals was not the path I forsaw at all.
Curling: Predicted 0, Actual 1
The legend of the Cory/Korey's will endure. I won't leave the sport off ever again.
Figure Skating: Predicted 4, Actual 3
First under prediction. To be fair, everyone would have thought Ilia was a lock for at least a medal. The biggest miss of the games for the whole team but the best opportunity in the French Alps.
Freestyle Skiing: Predicted 9, Actual 8
I didn't break down this prediction, but proud of the number. I came up with 9 just as +1 to the 2022 total with the addition of doubles mogul. Considering we got two medals in doubles mogul we did actually underperform in the men's events.
Ice Hockey: Predicted 2, Actual 2
Only thing I was off by was predicting the men's medal would be bronze.
Luge: Predicted 0, Actual 1
A very nice surprise
Short Track: Predicted 0, Actual 1
At least I said there was a possibility here unlike Luge and Curling. An odd bronze was exactly where I saw this coming from.
Skeleton: Predicted 1, Actual 0
Highest rank for the US here was 7th. I picked the wrong sled.
Snowboard: Predicted 3, Actual 2
Fair to say the US is not a powerhouse in snowboarding any longer. I was almost right about Ollie Martin getting bronze in big air, but it was a different event the men got their bronze.
Speed Skating: Predicted 4, Actual 5
I can't say I meant to predict Stolz missing a medal in the Mass Start, but I'll take it. I was exact other then Women's Mass Start.
33 in the end! I'd rather get some surprises then underperform expectations. If I did do a full medal by medal breakdown I'm sure I would have over predicted golds by a couple. I can think of 5 events (figure men, ice dance, women's board halfpipe, men's skate mass start, men's team pursuit) off the top of my head where US were favorites but didn't win.
Only question left, 11 or 12 golds in the end? We'll see in the next few minutes.