Karate Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games

[EselTheDonkey 824]

2 hours ago, phelps said:

 

 

in the women's -55kg class, we have the -50kg "original" part of the ranking already decided, with Arapoglu and Plank having a really wide margin over the closest rival ( Bouderbane, who has more than 700 points to make up, almost impossible)… 

 

Shara Hubrich is only 60 Points behind Plank.

[phelps 7,671]

4 hours ago, MHSN said:

@phelps that was a very good analyze but we should remember all events from now on will have double points than previous events (except for World and Continental Champs) I wonder how many events are left ? I see 5 Premiere Leagues are scheduled only for the rest of 2019. plus continental Champs for Asia (and also Africa) yeah I know in Karate it's really hard for one athlete to win back to back competitions but still .

 

as for Iran, I expect to qualify only 2 via ranking, Askari and Ganjzadeh. they are already good in the ranking and still have the chance to win the Asian Championships and collect lots of points and probably secure the spot early. there is still chance for the rest, but Derafshipour, Bahmanyar and Alipour only have to win the Asian Championships to stand a chance. only gold medal and something like 1000pts will give them a chance.

 

 

unless WKF plays it dirty, we should have 5 K1PL and 3 Serie A events left in 2019 and 2 K1PL and 1 Serie A event left in the first 4 months of 2020 (with Oceania, Asia and Africa still to complete also the continental champs that should actually count for the final ranking)...

 

which means that we have a lot of points still up for grabs and things could change a lot, but at the same time I made some considerations on the fact that since karate became an Olympic sport, most of the major events have seen on the podium (or around it) almost always the same (top) athletes...big upsets do happen always more rarely...and the scoring system is really generous only with those who make at least the gold medal match (and if you don't make at least the medal round you only get marginal points)...

 

moreover, in the next Kata PL and Serie A events, the Japanese athletes will surely take all the major points away from the other competitors (apart those 2 or 3 stars already in the qualifying positions), making really improbable any change in the standings...

 

p.s ranking points calculation is here:

http://setopen.sportdata.org/wkfranking/docs/WKFRanking20190101.pdf

 

basically, K1PL and continental champs give the same points: 600 for the win + 10 every match won (and Serie A is half of them, 300 for the win + 10 each match won)...

[phelps 7,671]

4 hours ago, EselTheDonkey said:

 

Shara Hubrich is only 60 Points behind Plank.

 

yes, you're right...I just missed her name while reading the composite ranking between the -50 and -55kg classes...

 

which means that we have a good race also for the second -50kg spot...

 

however, Germany also have Jana Bitsch still in contention in the -55kg (even if she's currently a bit behind her main contenders)...at the end of the OQP, it could go down to a German derby to get a spot in the Olympic lightweights (only 1 of the 2 girls -the higher in the respective standings- will get a quota place, even if both end up in the theoretical qualifying position)...

[MHSN 3,619]

7 minutes ago, phelps said:

p.s ranking points calculation is here:

http://setopen.sportdata.org/wkfranking/docs/WKFRanking20190101.pdf

 

basically, K1PL and continental champs give the same points: 600 for the win + 10 every match won (and Serie A is half of them, 300 for the win + 10 each match won)...

 

actually 6x10=60pts for each win. normally you have to win 4-5 matches at least for the gold medals. that's something like 900pts . considering this, even 1000pts difference is not that big to catch up with.

[phelps 7,671]

3 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

actually 6x10=60pts for each win. normally you have to win 4-5 matches at least for the gold medals. that's something like 900pts . considering this, even 1000pts difference is not that big to catch up with.

 

oh, yes...I didn't multiplied the bonus points...

 

well, as I wrote, you have to win or at least get a silver medal to make all those points...so, it's not that easy for the outsiders to climb the rankings as it could look only considering the big prize for the top 1 or 2 of each tournament...

 

for instance, just making a good 5th place, it gives "only" 120 + bonus points away...not to mention how penalizing is, if you're not among the lucky guys entering the repechage round...you could get until the pool final and then come home with just a bunch of bonus points for the 3/4 matches won that given day...

 

and you have to perform regularly, because the top guys (those already ahead in the ranking) somehow are always grabbing points, tournament after tournament...

 

so, yes, there are still a lot of points to be awarded, but at the same time the tendency of an entire year of competition is quite clear and it's not likely to change that much in the next 12 months (obviously there will be some changes in the standing from now to april 2020, but I don't expect too many of them)...

[MHSN 3,619]

5 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

oh, yes...I didn't multiplied the bonus points...

 

well, as I wrote, you have to win or at least get a silver medal to make all those points...so, it's not that easy for the outsiders to climb the rankings as it could look only considering the big prize for the top 1 or 2 of each tournament...

 

for instance, just making a good 5th place, it gives "only" 120 + bonus points away...not to mention how penalizing is, if you're not among the lucky guys entering the repechage round...you could get until the pool final and then come home with just a bunch of bonus points for the 3/4 matches won that given day...

 

and you have to perform regularly, because the top guys (those already ahead in the ranking) somehow are always grabbing points, tournament after tournament...

 

so, yes, there are still a lot of points to be awarded, but at the same time the tendency of an entire year of competition is quite clear and it's not likely to change that much in the next 12 months (obviously there will be some changes in the standing from now to april 2020, but I don't expect too many of them)...

 

I think you had a hard day at work (I know Monday is the worst day of the week) your calculations are wrong again we are still in "holidays" here and since that's impossible/very dangerous to leave the house because of the weather , I had more time to calculate things

 

a 5th place can give you something like 400pts. 30 for 5th place, 30 for let's say winning 3 matches at least + 5 participation points. 65X6=390.

 

I agree with your point though, it will be hard for outsiders to win medals in back to back tournaments, that's why I never considered our female Karatekas to qualify through the ranking. they can't be consistently good. but when I look at the ranking that's not impossible to think about it. they just have to win medal in two tournaments to become a contender. Asian Championship will be much easier (not just because that's only Asia, also because of one athlete per country rule) if they have to qualify that's where they have to collect points.

 

PS: I was just kidding, mistakes happen. I always like all of your posts

[phelps 7,671]

12 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

I think you had a hard day at work (I know Monday is the worst day of the week) your calculations are wrong again we are still in "holidays" here and since that's impossible/very dangerous to leave the house because of the weather , I had more time to calculate things

 

a 5th place can give you something like 400pts. 30 for 5th place, 30 for let's say winning 3 matches at least + 5 participation points. 65X6=390.

 

I agree with your point though, it will be hard for outsiders to win medals in back to back tournaments, that's why I never considered our female Karatekas to qualify through the ranking. they can't be consistently good. but when I look at the ranking that's not impossible to think about it. they just have to win medal in two tournaments to become a contender. Asian Championship will be much easier (not just because that's only Asia, also because of one athlete per country rule) if they have to qualify that's where they have to collect points.

 

PS: I was just kidding, mistakes happen. I always like all of your posts

 

always...

 

p.s. yes, your calculations are definitely more accurate than mine...still, I see that you understand my point...

maybe I shouldn't have written that those currently at 4000 (or something like that) points are "safe" ('cause there are still so many points to be awarded), but tbh I only wanted to make a still photo of the current situation, more than really analyzing the future implications...

 

p.p.s. however, I think (Ihope) Italy can keep those 4 spots currently in our (virtual) hands...it would be a huge success for us (especially because I think that those 4 guys -Bottaro, Busato, Busà and Crescenzo- are also good medal chances, once they actually qualify for the Games)...

and hopefully we can also get Cardin back very quickly...she could be the women's kumite medal candidate we're missing right now (the heavyweights girls -Semeraro and Ferracuti, whoever should get the chance- are too inconsistent to be considered a real medal threat, even should they qualify through the world tournament in May 2020)...

[phelps 7,671]

so, the European Games are over...and in a normal world, today we would know who are the European athletes qualified to the Olympic Games through the Continental pathway...

 

but no, in a degenerated sports world, we have to wait until next April and then start calculating and comparing results from different categories to sort it out!

 

by the way, here's a recap of what happened in Minsk and of what should be the situation if the OQP was already over (p.s. the OQR is still missing the points from earned by the fighters in the last K1PL and Serie A events, in Shanghai and Montreal respectively)...

 

women's EG champions

Kata: Sandra Sanchez Jaime*  (WKF Rank in "Olympic" Kata: 1st, 6412.5 Pts)
Kumite, -50kg: Bettina Plank* (WKF Rank in "Olympic" -55kg: 5th, 3292.5 Pts)
Kumite, -55kg: Ivet Goranova (WKF Rank in "Olympic" -55kg: 7th, 2580 Pts)
Kumite, -61kg: Anita Serogina (WKF Rank in "Olympic" -61kg: 14th, 1432.5 Pts)
Kumite, -68kg: Silvia Semeraro (WKF Rank in "Olympic" +61kg: 16th, 1995 Pts)
Kumite, +68kg: Laura Palacio Gonzalez (WKF Rank in "Olympic" +61kg: 19th, 1747.5 Pts)

 

* Currently already qualified through OQR

 

men's EG champions

Kata: Damian Hugo Quintero Capdevila*  (WKF Rank in "Olympic" Kata: 2nd, 5287.5 Pts)
Kumite, -60kg: Kalvis Kalnins (WKF Rank in "Olympic" -67kg: 27th, 1395 Pts)
Kumite, -67kg: Luca Maresca** (WKF Rank in "Olympic" -67kg: 18th, 1740 Pts)
Kumite, -75kg: Stanislav Horuna* (WKF Rank in "Olympic" -75kg: 5th, 3037.5 Pts)
Kumite, -84kg: Ivan Kvesic* (WKF Rank in "Olympic" +75kg: 3rd, 3757.5 Pts)
Kumite, +84kg: Asiman Gurbanli (WKF Rank in "Olympic" +75kg: 29th, 1297.5 Pts)

 

* Currently already qualified through OQR
** Basically NOT Eligible to qualify, as another Italian Athlete is currently already qualified through OQR in his class

 

based on these results and rankings (still very provisional, as people might imagine), Ivet Goranova (women) and Kalvis Kalnins (men) would be the 2 lucky Europeans getting a Continental spot for the Olympic Games in Tokyo...

[Federer91 2,793]

Young grasshopper Ivet Goranova is coming to take names. 

[Dunadan 1,103]

19 hours ago, phelps said:

based on these results and rankings (still very provisional, as people might imagine), Ivet Goranova (women) and  Kalvis Kalnins (men) would be the 2 lucky Europeans getting a Continental spot for the Olympic Games in Tokyo...

 

Should have waited one day...WKF updated the rankings with the points from June and the best non qualified gold medallists as of now are Horuna and Semeraro.