Athletics 2016 Discussion Thread

[Gianlu33 6,029]

What results in high jump Another amazing performace for Kirputo 

[dareza 911]

I hope Burundi will win medal in Rio Bartoletta again was good on 100m. Maybe she can be in team for Rio in both long jump and 100m.

[OlympicsFan 860]

Am 3.6.2016 um 22:02 schrieb heywoodu:

Margaret Wambui takes the 800m win in Huelva...she might be the only one capable of staying reasonably close to Semenya and Niyonsaba this season and we all know why.

 

Its really hard to tell how strong she is at the moment, is she in the same category as Semenya/Niyonsaba? Then we should have 3 different races in Rio.

1) Semenya against the world record

2) Niyonsaba vs. Wambui

3) Who will finish 4th?

I think only Dibaba could stop one of them, but i dont think that she could beat Semenya. Arzamasova, Bishop, Sum and the rest shouldnt have a chance for a medal.

I hope that we will also see Semenya in womens 400/1500 m, she could win a medal there as well, but i dont know about the schedule ...

 

Did you ever take a close look at the shorts of Semenya/Niyonsaba/Wambui vs. the shorts of all other athletes? It would be really "interesting" to have Semenya/Wambui/Niyonsaba race in the same shorts as all other athletes ...

[heywoodu 16,465]

1 hour ago, dareza said:

I hope Burundi will win medal in Rio Bartoletta again was good on 100m. Maybe she can be in team for Rio in both long jump and 100m.

Don't worry, they will. Semenya has like a 90% chance to win and the only one normally capable of staying somewhat close to her with these new hormone rules is Niyonsaba (and Wambui potentially). 

 

Obviously it's possible that Semenya and Niyonsaba will fail at the Olympics, I mean, every Olympics has top favourites who fail, but the chance of Burundi winning a medal is very big  

[heywoodu 16,465]

7 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

Its really hard to tell how strong she is at the moment, is she in the same category as Semenya/Niyonsaba? Then we should have 3 different races in Rio.

1) Semenya against the world record

2) Niyonsaba vs. Wambui

3) Who will finish 4th?

I think only Dibaba could stop one of them, but i dont think that she could beat Semenya. Arzamasova, Bishop, Sum and the rest shouldnt have a chance for a medal.

I hope that we will also see Semenya in womens 400/1500 m, she could win a medal there as well, but i dont know about the schedule ...

 

Did you ever take a close look at the shorts of Semenya/Niyonsaba/Wambui vs. the shorts of all other athletes? It would be really "interesting" to have Semenya/Wambui/Niyonsaba race in the same shorts as all other athletes ...

 

The way Wambui ran in Huelva leads me to believe she too has at least 2-3 seconds in the tank. Remember she is the youngest of them all by far, so she has a lot more potential to grow and get faster. Same thing for Niyonsaba, which we saw today: even without Semenya's "help" she pulled off a huge 1:56 today..

 

Semenya has had two 1:56-half races this year and she hasn't even been trying. She has not ran a single 800m at 100% and is already easily running under 1:57...if these hormone rules aren't normalized Kratochvilova's doping WR will be absolutely shattered very soon, possible even in Rio already.

 

 

1. Semenya will win that fight if these ridiculous hormone rules don't change, the only question is when. 

2. Hard to tell, but I think both can definitely go under 1:56 or even faster. 

3. That's the only real hard thing to tell...the likes of Sum, Arzamasova of course all have a medal chance, but they need their best day ever and a bad day for Semenya/Niyonsaba/Wambui. Which is of course always possible, like said before, nothing is sure and there are always favourites who fail.

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 22 Minuten schrieb heywoodu:

 

The way Wambui ran in Huelva leads me to believe she too has at least 2-3 seconds in the tank. Remember she is the youngest of them all by far, so she has a lot more potential to grow and get faster. Same thing for Niyonsaba, which we saw today: even without Semenya's "help" she pulled off a huge 1:56 today..

 

Semenya has had two 1:56-half races this year and she hasn't even been trying. She has not ran a single 800m at 100% and is already easily running under 1:57...if these hormone rules aren't normalized Kratochvilova's doping WR will be absolutely shattered very soon, possible even in Rio already.

 

 

1. Semenya will win that fight if these ridiculous hormone rules don't change, the only question is when. 

2. Hard to tell, but I think both can definitely go under 1:56 or even faster. 

3. That's the only real hard thing to tell...the likes of Sum, Arzamasova of course all have a medal chance, but they need their best day ever and a bad day for Semenya/Niyonsaba/Wambui. Which is of course always possible, like said before, nothing is sure and there are always favourites who fail.

I dont see any chance that the rule will be changed before Rio, IAAF has enough trouble with all the doping cases and the possible ban for Russia. I dont understand why on the one hand Rehm has to prove that he doesnt have an advantage, while on the other hand IAAF has to prove that Semenya/Niyonsaba/Wambui have an advantage. In both cases athletes have an unfair advantage, but i think both cases should be treated the same, so either IAAF or the athletes have to prove that they (dont) have an advantage. I dont really think that Wambui is really that young, many/most african athletes are older than they claim to be, so i am not sure if she really has that much (more) potential. I also dont think that you can treat womens 800 m like a normal race, Semenya/Niyonsaba arent "normal" favorites, they are miles ahead of everyone else (i am not sure about Wambui yet), so in my opinion having a bad day wont have any effect on their medal chances. I think they can only lose a medal if they fall or somehow get disqualified. For me its very hard to tell how big the probability is that those 3 are doped, then there would be at least a realistic chance that someone else will get their medal in a couple of years. They are all from poor countries without a really working anti-doping strategy, so i wouldnt be surprised if all of them would be caught in the future. Those 3 basically are "naturally" doped like all the crazy fast 800/1500 m runners about 30 years ago, who almost had the body of a male middle distance runner. It could get really interesting in the future if the rule wont be changed, then some countries might start to search for "woman" like Semenya (in all sports), just to win as many medals as possible. Just imagine China starting to do that, they would completely dominate most sports ...

[dcro 10,211]

41 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

 

The way Wambui ran in Huelva leads me to believe she too has at least 2-3 seconds in the tank. Remember she is the youngest of them all by far, so she has a lot more potential to grow and get faster. Same thing for Niyonsaba, which we saw today: even without Semenya's "help" she pulled off a huge 1:56 today..

 

Semenya has had two 1:56-half races this year and she hasn't even been trying. She has not ran a single 800m at 100% and is already easily running under 1:57...if these hormone rules aren't normalized Kratochvilova's doping WR will be absolutely shattered very soon, possible even in Rio already.

 

 

1. Semenya will win that fight if these ridiculous hormone rules don't change, the only question is when. 

2. Hard to tell, but I think both can definitely go under 1:56 or even faster. 

3. That's the only real hard thing to tell...the likes of Sum, Arzamasova of course all have a medal chance, but they need their best day ever and a bad day for Semenya/Niyonsaba/Wambui. Which is of course always possible, like said before, nothing is sure and there are always favourites who fail.

I don't really get why such a fuss about Semenya all of a sudden. It's not like she hasn't been around for 7 years on this level.

Edited June 5, 2016 by dcro

[heywoodu 16,465]

8 minutes ago, dcro said:

I don't really get why such a fuss about Semenya all of a sudden. It's not like she hasn't been around for 7 years on this level.

 

Because last year the hormone rules changed and she could stop taking hormone therapy. When her testosteron was on a level that was like 3-4 times higher than the average female athlete she already didn't have any chance at all...as in, she could barely even get close to 2 minutes. Now she doesn't need to lower her testosteron and she can just keep going and going and ever since that rule changed she has been like a machine. She hasn't even tried running fast yet and she posted 50.7, 1:56 and 4:10 400/800/1500 meters. If it keeps going like this she could easily run sub-49 in the 400 and easily run sub-1:52 in the 800. 

 

The hard thing is that it's not like doping in the sense that she's not to blame for being born like that (same for athletes like her), but it is a really tough question whether or not this should be stopped or not. Because if this is not stopped, every female athlete who doesn't have this hyperandrogenism could just as well stop with athletics, because the Semenya's are going to dominate each and every event. 

[heywoodu 16,465]

20.77m opening attempt for Bukowiecki at the shot put in Oslo, that guy is going to do big things in Rio this summer 

[heywoodu 16,465]

And that's 21.14m and a new world junior record (again) for Bukowiecki  

 

If that guy has any of the "championship genes" of Majewski, he's gonna be hard to beat in Rio.