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Winter Olympic Games Beijing 2022 Early Qualification Predictions

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JoshMartini007 Rising Star

JoshMartini007   2,538

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15 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Great job!

Can you elaborate on these specific countries please, as in which sports?

Azerbaijan - Alpine Skiing (1), Figure Skating (2)

Cayman Islands - Alpine Skiing (1)

Colombia - Alpine Skiing (1)

Ecuador - Alpine Skiing (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

Jamaica - Bobsleigh (1)

Madagascar - Alpine Skiing (1)

Malaysia - Alpine Skiing (2)

Moldova - Alpine Skiing (1), Luge (4)

Monaco - Alpine Skiing (2), Bobsleigh (4)

Nigeria - Bobsleigh (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

 

Mostly base quotas in alpine skiing

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JoshMartini007
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Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves d

rafalgorka
rafalgorka

@phelps THANK YOU!   Maybe we can try day-by-day Beijing predictions - what would we watch on every day, what are the most interesting events for us,  what are our medal predictions, how our

hckošice
hckošice

Slovensko   Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing   Ski Sports   Alpine Skiing  (7) - Baring health issues and injuries, Petra Vlhová and both

Olympian1010 Experienced

Olympian1010   7,976

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12 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Azerbaijan - Alpine Skiing (1), Figure Skating (2)

Cayman Islands - Alpine Skiing (1)

Colombia - Alpine Skiing (1)

Ecuador - Alpine Skiing (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

Jamaica - Bobsleigh (1)

Madagascar - Alpine Skiing (1)

Malaysia - Alpine Skiing (2)

Moldova - Alpine Skiing (1), Luge (4)

Monaco - Alpine Skiing (2), Bobsleigh (4)

Nigeria - Bobsleigh (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

 

Mostly base quotas in alpine skiing

Colombia just had an athlete go under 300 points at the U23 World Champs in Cross Country. If he can get his points under 300, they’ll have a cross country skier too!

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela

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Agger Rising Star

Agger   1,663

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5 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

 

:DEN Denmark - 3

Pretty interesting that you have us at only 3 :mumble:

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JoshMartini007 Rising Star

JoshMartini007   2,538

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4 minutes ago, Agger said:

Pretty interesting that you have us at only 3 :mumble:

 

Yeah, I was surprised when I was going down the list. To be fair, they just barely missed out in both curling teams and men's ice hockey. Do you know if Denmark is restricting travel by more than other nations? I noticed places with more restrictions (e.g. Australia) have smaller teams than expected.

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Agger Rising Star

Agger   1,663

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1 minute ago, JoshMartini007 said:

 

Yeah, I was surprised when I was going down the list. To be fair, they just barely missed out in both curling teams and men's ice hockey. Do you know if Denmark is restricting travel by more than other nations? I noticed places with more restrictions (e.g. Australia) have smaller teams than expected.

Not for athletes. However it should be mentioned that some skiers have their base in Norway or USA which may have an impact. But some athletes (like speed skater Viktor Hald Thorup) haven't prioritized competing this year as well.

I strongly question that we'll qualify in curling. The federation has lost most of the funding meaning that there's been no way to prioritize. But well, we're in the Worlds, so maybe. I have us as small favourites for the men's ice hockey, but that's not the first time.

To me the main question would be how tough the national qualification will be. We should be able to qualify more than 3 (also without ice hockey, but how many will actually be selected?

 

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intoronto Proficient

intoronto   5,645

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54 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Azerbaijan - Alpine Skiing (1), Figure Skating (2)

Cayman Islands - Alpine Skiing (1)

Colombia - Alpine Skiing (1)

Ecuador - Alpine Skiing (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

Jamaica - Bobsleigh (1)

Madagascar - Alpine Skiing (1)

Malaysia - Alpine Skiing (2)

Moldova - Alpine Skiing (1), Luge (4)

Monaco - Alpine Skiing (2), Bobsleigh (4)

Nigeria - Bobsleigh (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

 

Mostly base quotas in alpine skiing

For Azerbaijan are you expecting a couple to qualify?

I highly doubt Cayman Islands will qualify. They have no current active skier (their athlete who qualified in 2018, retired before the games)

Are you expecting 2 sleds in the men's 2 men to qualify for Monaco?

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Olympian1010 Experienced

Olympian1010   7,976

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36 minutes ago, intoronto said:

For Azerbaijan are you expecting a couple to qualify?

I highly doubt Cayman Islands will qualify. They have no current active skier (their athlete who qualified in 2018, retired before the games)

Are you expecting 2 sleds in the men's 2 men to qualify for Monaco?

Azerbaijan stands a good chance of qualification in the women’s single and men’s single.

 

Monaco should be able to get a 4-man sled.

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela

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Olympian1010 Experienced

Olympian1010   7,976

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1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Azerbaijan - Alpine Skiing (1), Figure Skating (2)

Cayman Islands - Alpine Skiing (1)

Colombia - Alpine Skiing (1)

Ecuador - Alpine Skiing (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

Jamaica - Bobsleigh (1)

Madagascar - Alpine Skiing (1)

Malaysia - Alpine Skiing (2)

Moldova - Alpine Skiing (1), Luge (4)

Monaco - Alpine Skiing (2), Bobsleigh (4)

Nigeria - Bobsleigh (1), Cross-country Skiing (1)

 

Mostly base quotas in alpine skiing

Jamaica might be able to get more than one athlete bobsleigh if the rankings work out in their favor.

 

Moldova might be able to get a biathlete or two as well. 

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela

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OlympicsFan Rising Star

OlympicsFan   858

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7 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

:ALB Albania - 1

:ASA American Samoa - 1

:AND Andorra - 5

:ARG Argentina - 9

:ARM Armenia - 4

:AUS Australia - 34

:AUT Austria - 110

:AZE Azerbaijan - 3

:BLR Belarus - 38

:BEL Belgium - 18

:BOL Bolivia - 2

:BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5

:BRA Brazil - 8

:BUL Bulgaria - 15

:CAN Canada - 206

:CAY Cayman Islands - 1

:CHI Chile - 3

:CHN China - 167

:COL Colombia - 1

:CRO Croatia - 9

:CYP Cyprus - 1

:CZE Czech Republic - 114

:DEN Denmark - 3

:ECU Ecuador - 2

:EST Estonia - 26

:FIN Finland - 98

:FRA France - 97

:GEO Georgia - 7

:GER Germany - 181

:GBR Great Britain - 62

:GRE Greece - 5

:HAI Haiti - 1

:HKG Hong Kong - 3

:HUN Hungary - 13

:ISL Iceland - 5

:IRI Iran - 4

:IRL Ireland - 4

:ISR Israel - 4

:ITA Italy - 129

:JAM Jamaica - 1

:JPN Japan - 134

:KAZ Kazakhstan - 31

:KEN Kenya - 1

:KOS Kosovo - 1

:KGZ Kyrgyzstan - 1

:LAT Latvia - 61

:LBN Lebanon - 3

:LIE Liechtenstein - 6

:LTU Lithuania - 12

:LUX Luxembourg

:MAD Madagascar - 1

:MAS Malaysia - 2

:MLT Malta - 1

:MEX Mexico - 2

:MDA Moldova - 5

:MON Monaco - 6

:MGL Mongolia - 2

:MNE Montenegro - 3

:MAR Morocco - 1

:NED Netherlands - 42

:NZL New Zealand - 16

:NGR Nigeria - 2

:PRK North Korea - 2

:MKD North Macedonia - 3

:NOR Norway - 115

:PAK Pakistan - 2

:PER Peru - 2

:PHI Philippines - 1

:POL Poland - 51

:POR Portugal - 2

:PUR Puerto Rico - 1

:ROU Romania - 21

:RUS Russia - 209

:SMR San Marino - 1

:SRB Serbia - 5

:SVK Slovakia - 48

:SLO Slovenia - 45

:RSA South Africa - 1

:KOR South Korea - 69

:ESP Spain - 13

:SWE Sweden - 117

:SUI Switzerland - 178

:TPE Chinese Taipei - 3

:THA Thailand - 4

:TLS Timor-Leste - 1

:TTO Trinidad and Tobago - 1

:TUR Turkey - 6

:UKR Ukraine - 41

:USA United States - 219

:UZB Uzbekistan - 1

:ISV Virgin Islands - 1

I hope that you are wrong for Germany, but I fear that your prediction won’t be far off.

Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
 

 

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