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Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Qualifying Simulation Road to LA 2028

rafalgorka
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JoshMartini007
JoshMartini007

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update   Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additional

Siddhartha Talukdar
Siddhartha Talukdar

Hi everyone, with most of the sports' qualification documents released I did my own qualification simulation for all events including Tripartite places based on latest rankings followed by respective

JoshMartini007
JoshMartini007

To revive some discussion here, I did my own qualifying simulation, here's a Google sheet of the team sizes (and discipline breakdown).   https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W2TihYgttZ3O

rafalgorka Rising Star

rafalgorka   1,821

Posted
Posted

Stay tuned! 

 

A lot will happen in this thread unless I get bored with it.

 

Or I don't have time to update it.

#TeamMoura-heywoodu

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rafalgorka Rising Star

rafalgorka   1,821

Posted
Posted (edited)

Let's start with: 312. VOLLEYBALL - M Tournament

 

I don't think there's an official qualifying system announced yet but rumours say it will be like that: (quali system with my predictions)

 

:USA - hosts

:ITA - 2026 European Champions

:IRI - 2026 Asian Champions

:TUN - 2026 African Champions

:ARG - 2026 South American Champions

:CAN - 2026 North American Champions

:BUL - 2027 World Championship

:POL - 2027 World Championship

:CZE - 2027 World Championship

:BRA - World Ranking

:FRA - World Ranking

:SLO - World Ranking

Edited by rafalgorka

#TeamMoura-heywoodu

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rafalgorka Rising Star

rafalgorka   1,821

Posted
Posted

And 313. VOLLEYBALL - W Tournament

 

:USA - hosts

:ITA - 2026 European Champions

:JPN - 2026 Asian Champions 

:KEN - 2026 African Champions 

:BRA - 2026 South American Champions  

:DOM - 2026 North American Champions 

:TUR - 2027 World Championship 

:NED - 2027 World Championship 

:POL - 2027 World Championship 

:CHN - World Ranking 

:SRB - World Ranking 

:GER - World Ranking 

#TeamMoura-heywoodu

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JoshMartini007 Rising Star

JoshMartini007   2,860

Posted
Posted

To revive some discussion here, I did my own qualifying simulation, here's a Google sheet of the team sizes (and discipline breakdown).

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W2TihYgttZ3O64VNUzJsonRIkUlz7vJdL0Ago6bJOpg/edit?usp=sharing

 

Some notes:

- Qualification was simulated based on the most current qualification document (2028 or 2024) available. For new events I went by as much information available, upholding the Olympic values for diversity.

- This was based by the current performance of athletes/teams. Injured athletes or athletes which took a year off were not considered. This will given future updates a more dynamic feeling.

- Until we receive an update from the IOC, Belarussian and Russian athletes will be considered if the sport federation currently allows them to compete.

- As with previous Olympics, refugee athletes will be given extra quotas to compete unless qualified normally.

- For tripartite quotas, I generally gave it to the best eligible athlete. In reality, this doesn't always happen as it is application based so a lower ranked athlete may be given the quota or a reallocation may occur.

 

 

Over the next week I'll take a deeper dive into these numbers for some interesting facts.

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JoshMartini007 Rising Star

JoshMartini007   2,860

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Posted

Here's a comparison relative to 2024 (I removed the new team sports to make it more comparable). This ignores Belarus and Russia.

 

Largest Increases Relative to 2024

1. :USA +58

2. :RSA +44

3. :BRA +31

4. :GBR +29

4. :NZL +29

6. :PRK +28

7. :MEX +27

8. :QAT +24

9. :CRC +22

10. :MAR +21

10. :POR +21

 

Unsurprisingly, the United States is expected to see the largest increase thanks to host quotas. It's not as massive as previous host nations, but that's because they don't need host quotas for most sports. South Africa is looking at a big increase, but only if they accept the water polo quotas this time around.

 

 

Largest Decreases Relative to 2024

1. :FRA -135

2. :IRL -43

3. :ITA -38

4. :ISR -33

5. :ROU -31

6. :DEN -29

7. :DOM -28

8. :SRB -26

8. :PUR -26

10. :CHN -23

10. :UKR -23

 

Again, no surprise to see France topping the list as they no longer benefit from host quotas. Ireland takes heavy losses not only by losing two large team events, but is generally down in most sports. Interestingly, Italy has the same number of large team events, but it's the drop in athletics and rowing which caused it to be so high up in the list.

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Benolympique Rising Star

Benolympique   2,438

Posted
Posted
On 1/18/2026 at 7:52 AM, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's a comparison relative to 2024 (I removed the new team sports to make it more comparable). This ignores Belarus and Russia.

 

Largest Increases Relative to 2024

1. :USA +58

2. :RSA +44

3. :BRA +31

4. :GBR +29

4. :NZL +29

6. :PRK +28

7. :MEX +27

8. :QAT +24

9. :CRC +22

10. :MAR +21

10. :POR +21

 

Unsurprisingly, the United States is expected to see the largest increase thanks to host quotas. It's not as massive as previous host nations, but that's because they don't need host quotas for most sports. South Africa is looking at a big increase, but only if they accept the water polo quotas this time around.

 

 

Largest Decreases Relative to 2024

1. :FRA -135

2. :IRL -43

3. :ITA -38

4. :ISR -33

5. :ROU -31

6. :DEN -29

7. :DOM -28

8. :SRB -26

8. :PUR -26

10. :CHN -23

10. :UKR -23

 

Again, no surprise to see France topping the list as they no longer benefit from host quotas. Ireland takes heavy losses not only by losing two large team events, but is generally down in most sports. Interestingly, Italy has the same number of large team events, but it's the drop in athletics and rowing which caused it to be so high up in the list.

Is it possible to have just your projections for team sports? Thank you.

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