Canada's 2026 Olympics Qualification Discussion

[JockCartier 311]

Looking at the last few years, for a top ten in the women’s you usually need around 190+… for that Maddie would need 120+ in the long. So, certainly possible, but would require a really good skate

 

Would be a wonderful accomplishment… and give someone a chance at a second Olympic spot too boot

[Josh 13,477]

1 hour ago, JockCartier said:

Looking at the last few years, for a top ten in the women’s you usually need around 190+… for that Maddie would need 120+ in the long. So, certainly possible, but would require a really good skate

 

Would be a wonderful accomplishment… and give someone a chance at a second Olympic spot too boot

Most likely Ruiter

[intoronto 6,892]

Rip another quota opportunity lost by one spot

[JockCartier 311]

So close… but so far.

 

Popping that opening lutz sunk her, lost probably 5-6 points right there

 

Great skate overall though. 
 

Honestly, coming in this was a big longshot. 

Edited March 29, 2025 by JockCartier

[Topicmaster1010 6,574]

3 quotas officially secured in ice dance

[JockCartier 311]

Sadovsky had another really good skate (huge progress for him) but a top ten in not in reach

[NearPup 4,172]

Honestly, all in all, not a bad worlds for Canada.

[Josh 13,477]

13 minutes ago, NearPup said:

Honestly, all in all, not a bad worlds for Canada.

Besides the pair skaters 

[JockCartier 311]

I agree, any clarifications from ISMF would be awful nice as to what next season might look like

 

Per their standings we’re up by one whole point at this point! https://dataskimo.org/pdf/OMRRL.pdf

[Topicmaster1010 6,574]

A few days ago, I posted the results from the quota simulation I've been working on.

 

I thought I would do a breakdown of Canada's earned/projected quotas here.

 

Overall, based on the results of the 2024-25 World Cup Seasons, Canada is projected to send a team of 215 athletes to Milan-Cortina, a decrease of 10 athletes from 2022.

 

 

Alpine Skiing (11 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 11 (6 men + 5 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 13 (5 men + 8 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 10

# of events in 2022: 11

 

Overall, this is a decrease of 2 athletes from 2022.

 

The men's side, however, is projected to increase by one. Brodie Seger and Jeffrey read both being ranked in the top 30 on the World Cup Start List has opened the way for Cameron Alexander and Jack Crawford to qualify via the Olympic allocation list. Liam Wallace (who I've never heard of before but I think he competes in the Nor-Am Cup) also helps qualify Canada a quota through the Olympic Allocation List.

 

The women's side has taken a hit though with Marie-Michele Gagnon and Erin Mielzynski retiring and Roni Remme switching to Germany. Valerie Grenier and Kiki Alexander both help Canada earn additional quotas through the Olympic Allocation List. This is in addition to earning the maximum 2 quotas from athletes ranked in the top 30 on the World Cup Start List. Britt Richardson (giant slalom), Laurence St. Germain (slalom) and Ali Nullmeyer) are all in the top 30 in their events along with Grenier (Super-G and Giant Slalom).

 

In terms of possible additional quotas, Raphael Lessard, Riley Seger, and Cassidy Gray are all within striking distance of the final skiers ranked on the Olympic Allocation list and could help gain additional quotas for Canada.

 

Canada also an additional basic quota for each gender.

 

Biathlon (8 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 8 (4 men + 4 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 8 (4 men + 4 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 8-9

# of events in 2022: 10

 

Canada has successfully qualified 4 athletes in each gender through the Nations Cup Rankings. The women comfortably qualified in 16th while the men just made it in 20th. Good thing that Russia and Belarus are both banned or else we would likely only be sending 1 man to the Olympics.

 

Bobsleigh (14 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 14 (8 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 18 (12 men + 6 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 4

# of events in 2022: 4

 

Thanks to the retirements of Justin Kripps and Chris Spring, Canada is only projected to qualify 2 men's sleds. Pat Norton and Taylor Austin finished the season 16th and 17th on the combined 2-man and 4-man World Ranking List and if they repeat these results next season, should have no problems qualifying 2 sleds for Canada.

 

On the women's side, Cynthia Appiah, Melissa Lotholz, and Kristen Bujnowski finished 12th, 13th and 15th in the women's combined monobob and 2-woman world rankings. Canada's 3rd sled is behind Germany and the US but well ahead of the other nations so qualifying 3 sleds shouldn't be any problems.

 

I think 14 athletes should be a safe guess for our final team size.

 

Cross-Country Skiing (13 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 13 (6 men + 7 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 9 (4 men + 5 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 12

# of events in 2022: 12

 

A boom of young talent (especially on the women's side) + the bans of Russia and Belarus have helped Canada qualify more athletes than they did 4 years ago. Currently, only 8 quotas per gender are official (1 each through the basic quota + 3 each through the Olympics Nations Ranking) with the extra allocations projected to take place after the qualification period is over on January 18.

 

Curling (11 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 11 (5 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 12 (6 men + 6 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 3

# of events in 2022: 3

 

Canada has already qualified a team in men's and women's curling and the mixed doubles should also qualify. The only reason that the number is 11 and not 12 is because Brett Gallant is currently projected to qualify in both the men's and mixed doubles tournament but given the high level of competition in Canada, that could easily change.

 

Figure Skating (12 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 12 (6 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 13 (7 men + 6 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 5

# of events in 2022: 5

 

The performances of Canadian figure skaters from the 2025 World Championships have earned Canada 7 quotas (1 man + 1 woman + 2 pairs + 3 ice dance) which results in 12 athletes. That number is locked in. That's 1 less athlete compared to 2022 (when Canada had an additional male quota). In addition, Canada is currently 5th on the team ranking list and is one of only 3 countries to qualify athletes in each event which should comfortably earn a them a spot in the team event.

 

If the 2025 results determined the Olympic team, than the Canadian team would look something like this:

Men: Roman Sadovsky

Women: Madeline Schizas

Pairs: Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps, Pereira/Michaud

Ice Dance: Gilles/Poirier, Lajoie/Lagha, Fabbri/Ayer

 

Freestyle Skiing (32 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 32 (16 men + 16 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 32 (16 men + 16 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 15

# of events in 2022: 13

 

Qualifying the maximum quota of 32 athletes should be no problem. If there weren't any maximum quota restraints, then Canada would be projected to qualify 39 athletes (4 in each event except women's slopestyle/big air with 3) according to the current quota allocation list. However, the maximum quota of 32 athletes will result in some cuts. I tried to determine which quotas Canada would reject. The women's cuts weren't surprising: 2 in aerials + 1 in moguls/dual moguls. The men's cuts however, were a bit more unexpected: 1 in moguls/dual moguls + 1 in halfpipe + 2 in slopestyle/big air. The freeski team hasn't done too well this year.

 

So based on the results from this year, this would be the projected Canadian team:

 

Men:

Aerials (4): Alexandre Duchaine, Lewis Irving, Miha Fontaine, Victor Primeau

Moguls (3): Mikael Kingsbury, Julien Viel, Elliot Vaillancourt

Ski Cross (4): Reece Howden, Kevin Drury, Jared Schmidt, Kristofer Mahler

Halfpipe (3): Brendan MacKay, Andrew Longino, Dylan Marineau

Slopestyle/Big Air (2): Evan McEachran, Dylan Deschamps

 

Women:

Aerials (2): Marion Thenault, Charlie Fontaine

Moguls (3): Maia Schwinghammer, Laurianne Desmarais-Gilbert, Jessica Linton

Ski Cross (4): India Sherret, Courtney Hoffos, Marielle Thompson, Abby McEwen (likely one of Schmidt or Phelan would replace McEwen)

Halfpipe (4): Cassie Sharpe, Rachael Karker, Amy Fraser, Dillan Glennie

Slopestyle/Big Air (3): Megan Oldham, Olivia Asselin, Skye Clarke

 

Ice Hockey (48 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 48 (25 men + 23 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 48 (25 men + 23 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 2

# of events in 2022: 2

 

Both men's and women's teams are already qualified. I do not watch enough hockey to due roster projections.

 

Luge (6 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 6 (2 men + 4 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 6 (3 men + 3 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 3

# of events in 2022: 4

 

Based on the results of the 2024-25 World Cup, Canada would qualify 2 sleds in women's singles, 1 in men's doubles and 1 in women's doubles. However, the men didn't start to compete until halfway through the season and finished only a few points behind the last athlete to qualify. The top athletes from the best 15 nations qualify so with a full season of results, 1 Canadian man should be able to qualify which would also give Canada a spot in the team relay. For the rest of the events, the current number of quotas should be pretty safe. Canada would have been in a position to qualify 3 athletes in women's singles under the old qualification system but the IOC reduced the # of quotas in women's singles to make room for women's doubles.

 

Based on last year's results, this would be the luge team for the Olympics:

Women's Singles (2): Caitlin Nash, Trinity Ellis (Embyr-Lee Susko will also challenge)

Men's Doubles (1): Wardrope/Zajanski

Women's Doubles (1): Podulsky/Allan

 

Nordic Combined (0 athletes)

 

No

 

Short Track (10 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 10 (5 men + 5 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 10 (5 men + 5 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 9

# of events in 2022: 9

 

Barring a complete catastrophe, Canada should easily qualify the maximum # of athletes in each discipline along with all relay teams.

 

Skeleton (2 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 2 (0 men + 2 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 3 (1 men + 2 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 1

# of events in 2022: 2

 

The men's team is in complete disarray. No one was ranked high enough on the World Rankings to earn a quota. The highest ranking Canadian was 51st. On the women's side, Mirela Rahneva's retirement meant that Canada is no longer projected to earn 3 quotas. Only 2 countries can qualify 3 quotas and our current 3rd athlete is not even close enough to Germany and Great Britain's 3rd athlete. Hallie Clarke and Jane Channell should easily be able to earn 2 quotas for Canada though.

 

Hopefully the men can step up their game next season and help earn Canada a quota.

 

Ski Jumping (3 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 3 (0 men + 3 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 10 (1 men + 2 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 2

# of events in 2022: 4

 

Alexandria Loutitt, Abigail Strate and Nicole Maurer are all in comfortable position to qualify for next year's Olympics. No men competed in the World Cup or Continental Cup last year. Maybe some other ski jumpers will compete next year and have a chance at a quota.

 

Ski Mountaineering (2 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 2 (1 men + 1 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 0

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 3

# of events in 2022: 0

 

With 1 race remaining (per speculation), Canada is in a position to earn a mixed relay continental quota over the US by 1 POINT. Canada is 12th in the rankings while the US is 13th so if they can pass Sweden or Poland in the rankings, then they can still qualify through the World Rankings even if the US were to pass them. In the women's sprint, Emma Cook-Clarke is currently ranked 17th. If Canada doesn't qualify a mixed relay, she would have to pass 4 athletes in the rankings to qualify through the sprint rankings.

 

Snowboarding (20 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 20 (10 men + 10 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 23 (11 men + 12 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 10

# of events in 2022: 11

 

Through the allocation list, Canada is projected to qualify athletes in every event except for men's halfpipe. The athletes currently in qualification position are as follows:

 

Men:

Parallel Giant Slalom (2): Arnaud Gaudet, Ben Heldman

Snowboard Cross (4): Eliot Grondin, Evan Bichon, Liam Moffatt, James Savard-Ferguson

Slopestyle/Big Air (4): Cameron Spalding, Liam Brearley, Francis Jobin, Eli Bouchard

 

Women:

Parallel Giant Slalom (2): Aurelie Moisan, Kaylie Buck

Snowboard Cross (4): Meryeta Odine, Audrey McManiman, Tess Critchlow, Rose Savard-Ferguson

Halfpipe (3): Elizbeth Hosking, Felicity Geremia, Brooke Dhondt

Slopestyle/Big Air (1): Laurie Blouin

 

There are a few athletes that are close to being in qualification position. Liam Gill is 4 spots away from a quota in men's halfpipe, and Juliette Pelchat is the first unqualified athlete in women's slopestyle/big air. Jasmine Baird was also injured last season so if she's back in form next season, then she could also earn a quota. At the same time, a bunch of snowboard cross athletes just made the qualification list and both Savard-Ferguson's hold the last qualification spot.

 

Speed Skating (13 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 13 (7 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 16 (8 men + 8 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 13

# of events in 2022: 14

 

I was a bit shocked to see only 13 projected athletes but it makes sense given the underwhelming 2024-25 World Cup season. The men's team pursuit was so bad that they didn't rank high enough to be projected for a quota which resulted in losing one projected athlete. Here's who's projected to qualify in each individual event. The women's athlete count was hurt by athletes like Blondin and Maltais qualifying for many events + earning only 2 out of 3 possible quotas in certain events. I would hope for 16 athletes per gender again.

 

Men:

500m (3): Laurent Dubreuil, Anders Johnson, Christopher Fiola

1000m (3): Laurent Dubreuil, Connor Howe, Anders Johnson

1500m (2): Connor Howe, David la Rue

5000m (2): Ted-Jan Bloemen, Graeme Fish

10000m (2): Ted-Jan Bloemen, Graeme Fish

Mass Start (1): David la Rue

 

Women:

500m (2): Carolina Hiller, Beatrice Lamarche

1000m (2): Beatrice Lamarche, Rose Laliberte-Roy

1500m (2): Ivanie Blondin, Valerie Maltais

3000m (3): Isabelle Weidemann, Ivanie Blondin, Valerie Maltais

5000m (2): Isabelle Weidemann, Ivanie Blondin

Mass Start (2): Ivanie Blondin, Valerie Maltais