The Road to LA '28 Road to LA 2028

[Epic Failure 359]

On 7/27/2025 at 2:44 AM, Grassmarket said:

OK, this is probably more the Road to 32 or Road to 36, but plenty medals for Team GB at the European Youth Olympic Festival in Macedonia last week,  Age Groups 16 to 18.  

 

10 Gold in Badminton, Gymnastics and Swimming

7 Silver

5 Bronze

 

SCHEDULE AND RESULTS – Skopje 2025 – Sport Europe

 

 

 

In swimming definitely more looking to 32. Most (potentially all, I've not checked) of the team are swimmers born in 2010. If they are ready for LA they'll be ahead of schedule.

 

In fact, our "senior" juniors (if that makes sense) didn't attend this meet. They went to the Euro Jnrs in Slovakia at the beginning of the month, where they topped the table with 9 gold, 5 silver and 5 bronze. 

 

The pick of that team will be going to the World Jnrs, happening mid August in Romania, along with Max Morgan and Jacob Mills, who didn't go to the Euro Jnrs as they are with the senior team in Singapore this week. 

[Grassmarket 4,027]

4 minutes ago, Epic Failure said:

In swimming definitely more looking to 32. Most (potentially all, I've not checked) of the team are swimmers born in 2010. If they are ready for LA they'll be ahead of schedule.

 

In fact, our "senior" juniors (if that makes sense) didn't attend this meet. They went to the Euro Jnrs in Slovakia at the beginning of the month, where they topped the table with 9 gold, 5 silver and 5 bronze. 

 

The pick of that team will be going to the World Jnrs, happening mid August in Romania, along with Max Morgan and Jacob Mills, who didn't go to the Euro Jnrs as they are with the senior team in Singapore this week. 

OK, so kind of the like the FISU games then, which pretty much represented the third string of our emerging talent.  

[Epic Failure 359]

Just now, Grassmarket said:

OK, so kind of the like the FISU games then, which pretty much represented the third string of our emerging talent.  

Yeah, although looking at the team, I think they consciously went with age rather than even just selecting a B or C team.

 

I couldn't be bothered checking for all the swimmers but the first 4 or 5 I saw from the GB Champs results were all born in 2010.

 

Some of them are obviously talents but I think there's a chunk of older juniors who could have gone in theory and weren't good enough to go to the Euro Jnrs who have been skipped entirely!

 

I guess it makes sense to give the next batch experience. 

[Jon 51]

Peaty confirms he’s aiming for the 50m and 100m Breaststroke titles in LA28, as well as two medleys. Also aiming to compete at the Commonwealths and Europeans next year. 

[Epic Failure 359]

As much as I love Adam and what he has done for British swimming, I think he's got a challenge on his hands, especially in the 100m. Both Max Morgan and Filip Nowacki are as fast/faster at 17 than Adam was at 18. 

 

Obviously it doesn't necessarily follow that they will continue that progression but a 33 year old Adam vs 2 hungry 20 year olds? Rather him than me!

[mpjmcevoy 375]

On 7/30/2025 at 10:03 AM, Epic Failure said:

As much as I love Adam and what he has done for British swimming, I think he's got a challenge on his hands, especially in the 100m. Both Max Morgan and Filip Nowacki are as fast/faster at 17 than Adam was at 18. 

 

Obviously it doesn't necessarily follow that they will continue that progression but a 33 year old Adam vs 2 hungry 20 year olds? Rather him than me!

Don't overlook Oscar Bilbao either. That said, Peaty was a bit of a late bloomer in junior swimming terms - he really did arrive from just about nowhere in 2014, with little in the way of a junior pedigree, fully formed at the age of 20 - compare by contrast the long and glorious junior careers of James guy, duncan Scott, tom dean and Freya Anderson, for example. So the fact these lads are faster than Peaty was at 18 is not really as impressive as it sounds - lots of people were.

 

Next year will tell a tale, i suppose - the euro-commies double will be the answer. The other things is the two medley relays are going to be partly out of his hands - Oli Morgan has had an average to poor week in what was supposed to be his breakout champs, so the idea he is 'the answer' at backstroke is no longer a given, and the classic British weakness at butterfly remains a problem.

 

But, still, Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?

[mpjmcevoy 375]

On 7/30/2025 at 9:32 AM, Grassmarket said:

OK, so kind of the like the FISU games then, which pretty much represented the third string of our emerging talent.  

Third string is probably generous. Hard to overplay how much the GBR people don't seem to care about the World Student Games.

[Epic Failure 359]

On 7/31/2025 at 9:03 PM, mpjmcevoy said:

Don't overlook Oscar Bilbao either. That said, Peaty was a bit of a late bloomer in junior swimming terms - he really did arrive from just about nowhere in 2014, with little in the way of a junior pedigree, fully formed at the age of 20 - compare by contrast the long and glorious junior careers of James guy, duncan Scott, tom dean and Freya Anderson, for example. So the fact these lads are faster than Peaty was at 18 is not really as impressive as it sounds - lots of people were.

 

Next year will tell a tale, i suppose - the euro-commies double will be the answer. The other things is the two medley relays are going to be partly out of his hands - Oli Morgan has had an average to poor week in what was supposed to be his breakout champs, so the idea he is 'the answer' at backstroke is no longer a given, and the classic British weakness at butterfly remains a problem.

 

But, still, Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?

Bilbao is older than the other two and hasn't really kicked on yet. Obviously he still could and I believe he is at Arizona State, which seems like a decent place to be. But right now he's not quite there. 

 

I have to disagree with you about Adam's arrival. He didn't come from nowhere in 2014, that was just when he had his international breakout. He came from nowhere in 2013. Which is why he holds the GBR records for all 3 breaststroke events for 18 year olds - https://www.swimmingresults.org/downloads/records/BR/BR_Progressive_LC_Male_18Years.pdf  

 

Literally no British 18 year old has ever swum faster than him. So what Max and Filip are doing at 17 *IS* impressive. Filip's 200m time from the Euro Jnrs is super impressive - it would have placed him 5th in Singapore this week. Bottom line is that Filip holds the British Jnr records at 100m and 200m, and they are both within a tenth of Adam 50m Jnr record, with another year of eligibility for each of them to improve further before they join the senior ranks.  

 

Now obviously that doesn't mean that they will get close to what Adam achieved or keep improving, but the signs are positive. 

 

Oli's poor week has still seen him get within 2/10th of his 100m Back British record.  Given that there's rumours that the British team has potentially been hit by the same bug as the US team, I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

 

The fly issue is definitely the bigger one. 

[Cinnamon Bun 911]

3 hours ago, Epic Failure said:

Bilbao is older than the other two and hasn't really kicked on yet. Obviously he still could and I believe he is at Arizona State, which seems like a decent place to be. But right now he's not quite there. 

 

I have to disagree with you about Adam's arrival. He didn't come from nowhere in 2014, that was just when he had his international breakout. He came from nowhere in 2013. Which is why he holds the GBR records for all 3 breaststroke events for 18 year olds - https://www.swimmingresults.org/downloads/records/BR/BR_Progressive_LC_Male_18Years.pdf  

 

Literally no British 18 year old has ever swum faster than him. So what Max and Filip are doing at 17 *IS* impressive. Filip's 200m time from the Euro Jnrs is super impressive - it would have placed him 5th in Singapore this week. Bottom line is that Filip holds the British Jnr records at 100m and 200m, and they are both within a tenth of Adam 50m Jnr record, with another year of eligibility for each of them to improve further before they join the senior ranks.  

 

Now obviously that doesn't mean that they will get close to what Adam achieved or keep improving, but the signs are positive. 

 

Oli's poor week has still seen him get within 2/10th of his 100m Back British record.  Given that there's rumours that the British team has potentially been hit by the same bug as the US team, I wouldn't worry too much about that. 

 

The fly issue is definitely the bigger one. 

Don't think it's as bad as it once was, Mildred is getting closer to that sub 51 mark and looked good this week - even MacInnes didn't do all that bad in the women's event so the signs are there thar the issue is getting resolved and the Guy void is getting filled heading into a big 2026. 

[Epic Failure 359]

Just now, Cinnamon Bun said:

Don't think it's as bad as it once was, Mildred is getting closer to that sub 51 mark and looked good this week - even MacInnes didn't do all that bad in the women's event so the signs are there thar the issue is getting resolved and the Guy void is getting filled heading into a big 2026. 

I'm not reading too much into the week (or even this year in general) because this was always going to be the quietest year of the current Olympic cycle - with Euros and Commies next year, then 27 WCs and finally LA, there's an obvious build up over those three years, which will each bring their own pressures. So this year, across many of the Olympic sports, is the one to...relax.

 

Obviously they are all still professionals but it is fairly clear that some are not quite at their top. Some have been more open about it than others (Peaty obviously, Dean as well). Which then leads you to wonder whether that is more widespread than we think - to use Oli Morgan again - could he actually not be working at 100% this year and actually capable of even more than he has shown? We'll never know, but it isn't impossible to imagine. 

 

And in swimming especially, with the illness that we know hit the US and has seemingly hit others (I believe GBR shared a training camp with the US, so it wouldn't surprise me if they were caught up in it), these Worlds shouldn't be read too much into.  

 

But all that said, fly is still very obviously the weakest link, especially in the absence of a WC women's backstroker right now. It's not that our swimmers are underperforming, they just aren't yet quite showing they are capable of keeping the distance to the top nations down right now. We're still looking like we're giving up at least a second in both the men's and mixed relay on the fly and we don't have Adam operating at a level where we know that he's definitely going to be at least a second ahead on the breast like we used to. 

 

As you say, Ed and Keanna have both had solid weeks and there are green roots elsewhere - Dean Fearn had a good Euro Jnrs. Theodora Taylor is gifted in pretty much everything, so could develop her fly (although the free is probably her likely spot). And Blythe Kinsman is probably the best bet for the backstroke spot right now. Those latter 3 combined with Nowicki to dominate at the Euro Jnrs in the mixed medley.