How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024?

[Faramir 376]

  On 7/22/2024 at 10:52 PM, 99urekim said:

To be honest, 20-30 medals would be optimistic, we've had too many good Olympics in recent years, so we are due an absolute clunker!

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20-30 medals for Great Britain?

[El Analyzer 230]

  On 7/22/2024 at 10:52 PM, 99urekim said:

To be honest, 20-30 medals would be optimistic, we've had too many good Olympics in recent years, so we are due an absolute clunker!

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I think you mean 20-30 Gold medals

[Dragon 1,894]

  On 7/23/2024 at 7:21 AM, Faramir said:

20-30 medals for Great Britain?

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None of the gold medal predictions is impossible but some are less likely than others.

Still, I'd be disappointed if Britain got less than 20 gold medals.

[Vektor 3,326]

The Hungarian sports newspaper had their frontpage for their Olympic preview without any female athletes. There was a backlash and they reprinted it.

 

Here's the new frontpage:

 

 

The featured athletes:

 

Mária Érdi (sailing)

Áron Szilágyi (fencing)

 

Hubert Kós (swimming)

Liza Pusztai (fencing)

Tamara Csipes (canoe sprint)

Dávid Losonczi (wrestling)

Bálint Kopasz (canoe sprint)

 

I sure didn't expect that it in 2024 the #1 featured female Hungarian athlete will come from sailing. 

[99urekim 0]

  On 7/23/2024 at 7:21 AM, Faramir said:

20-30 medals for Great Britain?

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Yes, I can remember a time when that was the norm, and that's what I mean by an absolute clunker!

[stratocumulus 68]

  On 6/12/2024 at 9:46 PM, stratocumulus said:

Realistically it will be something between 8 and 11, 2-3 gold. Four should be in for sure (no screenshots please!;). From the section "probable" I hope for 3 out of 7. The section "maybe" should deliver 1 medal out of 8 opportunities. The rest is chance.

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And this is it for Poland. Looking back at the prediction, I was:

1) 100% right in the "sure" section who wins a medal, slightly wrong about the colours (Świątek bronze instead of gold)

2) nearly on target in the section "probable" - I predicted 3 out of 7 chances, 2 chances delivered (fencing & climbing)

3) nearly on target in the "maybe" section - I predicted 1 out of 8 chances, 2 chances delivered (athletics & canoe slalom)

4) on target in the section "chance" - I was hoping for something and one delivered (boxing)

 

I wanted to be proven wrong, unfortunately I wasn't. The disappointment is not the low number of medals but the subperformance of most of the athletes, who were not able to deliver the results they already had during the season (let alone Personal Bests) with most notable cases like Nowicki, Fajdek (both hammer throw), Skrzyszowska (100m hurdles), Andrejczyk (javelin), Wasick (50m freestyle in swimming), Szymanska (judo) or the complete disaster of the kayak team.

 

If only the Polish athletes delivered their "usual" performance I believe it would lead to a nearly doubling of the number of the medals. Unfortunately, in the past 20 years a subaverage performance level of Polish athletes at the Olympics has become repeatable, hence my pessimistic prediction which turned out to be fairly accurate. 

 

So, this means our worst Olympics since Helsinki, 1952. Ouch.

 

 

Meanwhile, I do not believe we could expect any change in that. It hurts even more looking at the British case which went from 1 (one!) gold in Atlanta to 29 (!!!) in London and kept the level since (ok, Paris is slightly worse in terms of gold, but the total number is again on a very high level). So - it is possible, but probably not in Poland now.

 

Looking forward to your summaries

Edited August 10, 2024 by stratocumulus

[Pavlo 149]

  On 8/10/2024 at 6:55 PM, stratocumulus said:

And this is it for Poland. Looking back at the prediction, I was:

1) 100% right in the "sure" section who wins a medal, slightly wrong about the colours (Świątek bronze instead of gold)

2) nearly on target in the section "probable" - I predicted 3 out of 7 chances, 2 chances delivered (fencing & climbing)

3) nearly on target in the "maybe" section - I predicted 1 out of 8 chances, 2 chances delivered (athletics & canoe slalom)

4) on target in the section "chance" - I was hoping for something and one delivered (boxing)

 

I wanted to be proven wrong, unfortunately I wasn't. The disappointment is not the low number of medals but the subperformance of most of the athletes, who were not able to deliver the results they already had during the season (let alone Personal Bests) with most notable cases like Nowicki, Fajdek (both hammer throw), Skrzyszowska (100m hurdles), Andrejczyk (javelin), Wasick (50m freestyle in swimming), Szymanska (judo) or the complete disaster of the kayak team.

 

If only the Polish athletes delivered their "usual" performance I believe it would lead to a nearly doubling of the number of the medals. Unfortunately, in the past 20 years a subaverage performance level of Polish athletes at the Olympics has become repeatable, hence my pessimistic prediction which turned out to be fairly accurate. 

 

So, this means our worst Olympics since Helsinki, 1952. Ouch.

 

 

Meanwhile, I do not believe we could expect any change in that. It hurts even more looking at the British case which went from 1 (one!) gold in Atlanta to 29 (!!!) in London and kept the level since (ok, Paris is slightly worse in terms of gold, but the total number is again on a very high level). So - it is possible, but probably not in Poland now.

 

Looking forward to your summaries

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Without just added climbing we would end with 7 medals (no gold) without Belarus and Russia. This is unspeakable. But this is sadly our true level in everything now. 

Edited August 11, 2024 by Pavlo

[MHSN 3,655]

  On 6/14/2024 at 6:49 PM, MHSN said:

not much, last 3 years had been tough for the country in general and I'm less optimistic than 3 previous Olympics. 

 

I don't think it will be a disaster like 2008 only because the wrestling team is pretty strong but all other sports are fading because of mismanagement and lack of money. 

 

it will be something between 3 to 9 medals in wrestling + probably 1 or max 2 (and maybe none) in other sports. 

 

so I say 6 medals  

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looking at my pre-game prediction, I don't know why I'm upset/not-happy about winning 12 medals which was twice my prediction in June 

 

my latest prediction before the games was 9 medals though. still 12>9 

[sounak 40]

  On 8/12/2024 at 12:33 AM, MHSN said:

looking at my pre-game prediction, I don't know why I'm upset/not-happy about winning 12 medals which was twice my prediction in June 

 

my latest prediction before the games was 9 medals though. still 12>9 

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I love how symmetric Iran's overall medall tally is and also across sports it is symmetric

[Book 70]

  On 6/12/2024 at 7:26 PM, Book said:

 

: 118 medals, 41 golds.

 

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Very sound predication in the end. In reality: 121 medals, 40 golds. Considering the 44 silvers won there were many many opportunities to get one more gold.

 

The reasoning for the prediction also came true. A very strong track meet pulling slack for a less successful swim count.