Swimming at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[JoshMartini007 2,522]

I know it's been said before, but it's crazy how Europe and the rest of the World fare in each gender. For the men, Europe makes up 53% of total top 8 athletes while for the women, they are 27%.

 

Is it because the United States/Australia/China/Canada have much better women's teams or does Europe just have better men's teams? Is there a separation in development programs or are we just seeing an unlikely sequence of random chance?

[rybak 3,150]

17 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Canada even finishes fourth in seeds. I s2g we are doomed to being 4th forever

4th place in overall medal table in Paris will be bad too? 

[Josh 10,006]

20 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Canada even finishes fourth in seeds. I s2g we are doomed to being 4th forever

Not this again…

[Josh 10,006]

I get it, we finish 4th a lot. But seriously that joke is so overused. 

[intoronto 5,515]

5 minutes ago, rybak said:

4th place in overall medal table in Paris will be bad too? 

Sign me up 

[dullard 689]

8 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

I know it's been said before, but it's crazy how Europe and the rest of the World fare in each gender. For the men, Europe makes up 53% of total top 8 athletes while for the women, they are 27%.

 

Is it because the United States/Australia/China/Canada have much better women's teams or does Europe just have better men's teams? Is there a separation in development programs or are we just seeing an unlikely sequence of random chance?

Probably a bit of a both. All programs are combined gender in Australia. There are both combined and segregated college programs in the US.

[Topicmaster1010 4,008]

Relay Power Rankings: Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay

 

 

Other Power Rankings:

Men's 4x100m Medley Relay

Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

 

Welcome to another edition of the relay power rankings. Today, it's the men's 4x100m freestyle relay.

 

Remember, for each country, I'm taking the top 4 eligible swimmers for each country and using their best times from 2024 to form a estimated relay time. 1.5 seconds will be subtracted from each cumulative time to account for reaction times.

 

*Please note that the order of swimmers is arranged from fastest to slowest times, NOT by predicted relay order.

**Unfortunately I think I'm going to have to keep the summaries for each country shorter from here on out. This took more time than I expected.

 

16.  Israel - 3:17.14

• Alexey Glivinskiy - 49.49
• Denis Loktev - 49.5
• Meiron Cheruti - 49.55
• Eitan Ben Shitrit - 50.10

 

The Israeli 4x100m freestyle relay is a bit of a mess right now. In fact, the top Israeli this year in this discipline, Gregg Lichinsky, wasn't even selected for the team. That's because he went 49.33 at a meet after Olympic Trials were over. However, there is a good chance that Tomer Frankel will slide into this relay instead of Eitan Ben Shitrit. Frankel has a best time of 48.18 from last year but hasn't recorded a 100 free time so far this year which is why he isn't listed above. Denis Loktev, Gal Cohen Groumi and Meiron Cheruti all recorded faster times last year at the Israeli Championships. If you take their combined times, they would move up to 14th place in the rankings so their is room for improvement.

 

15.  Sweden - 3:16.35

• Bjoern Seeliger - 48.84
• Robin Hanson - 49.27
• Isak Eliasson - 49.82
• Elias Persson - 49.92

 

Another relay that's a bit of a mess is Sweden. The 3rd fastest Swede this year, Felix Jedbratt, was also not selected for the team.

 

14.  Greece - 3:14.96

• Apostolos Christou - 48.82
• Kristian Gkolomeev - 49.07
• Andreas Vazaios - 49.26
• Odyssefs Meladinis - 49.31

 

Greece may also decide to use Panagiotis Bolanos or Stergios-Marios Bilas on this relay if they want to rest guys like Christou or Gkolomeev for their main events.

 

13.  Spain - 3:13.32

• Sergio de Celis - 48.34
• Luis Dominguez - 48.44
• Cesar Castro - 48.86
• Mario Molla - 49.18

 

And here, we see our first swimmer on these rankings who achieved an OQT in the qualifying period. Spain will likely be hard pressed to make the final but this is a relay on the rise with all 4 men above already improving on their times from last year. Not a single Spaniard broke 49 seconds last year and 3 have done that this year already.

 

12.  Serbia - 3:12.68

• Andrej Barna - 47.66
• Velimir Stjepanovic - 47.99
• Nikola Acin - 49.22
• Justin Cvetkov - 49.31

 

Andrej Barna has emerged as one of the best 100 freestylers in the world and Velimir Stjepanovic showed at the European Championships that he can still get it done leading off the gold medal winning relay in 47.99. It's likely that Serbia will start with these two and if that's the case, they should be among the leaders at the halfway point and with the potential open water for the other two swimmers, that might just be enough to get them into the final.

 

11.  Poland - 3:12.60

• Mateusz Chowaniec - 48.45
• Kamil Sieradzki - 48.48
• Bartosz Piszczorowicz - 48.55
• Dominik Dudys - 48.62

 

Poland's projected quartet are all decent swimmers with very similar times ranging from 48.45 to 48.62. This is impressive from Poland considering that the fastest Polish swimmer last year was just 48.62 with Piszczorowicz having a full second drop from his 2023 time. The fastest swimmer in 2023 was Ksawery Masiuk and he could also be inserted into this relay. His PB is that 48.62 time and he's still 19 so another time drop could be in store.

 

10.  Brazil - 3:12.47

• Guilherme Caribe - 47.95
• Marcelo Chierighini - 48.41
• Breno Correia - 48.78
• Gabriel Santos - 48.83

 

It's a solid quartet for Brazil they've regressed overall compared to last year. While Caribe has taken a step forward, Marcelo Chierighini was not able to replicate his 47.86 swim at last years trials and didn't even reach the qualifying time. His best time this year is 48.41. Victor Alcara, who went 48.56 at last years trials, failed to make the team. They seemed like a good bet to make the final last year but I'm not so sure this year.

 

9.  Germany - 3:12.29

• Josha Salchow - 47.85
• Peter Varjasi - 48.45
• Rafael Miroslaw - 48.63
• Lukas Martens - 48.86

 

Germany has a new top 100 freestyler and his name is Josha Salchow. The 25 year old has made significant improvements every since he started to train in Australia improving his PB to 47.85. Peter Varjasi also set a PB this year at the German Championships and Lukas Martens is having a career year so far. If Miroslaw can come close to his 47 second form, Germany could challenge for a place in the top 6.

 

8.  Hungary - 3:12.22

• Nandor Nemeth - 47.49
• Kristof Milak - 48.26
• Hubert Kos - 48.87
• Szebasztian Szabo - 49.10

 

Hungary is looking much improved this year. Nandor Nemeth is having a career year, Milak is back and Hubert Kos will likely be on this relay as well having massive upside. Szebasztian Szabo was as fast as 48.36 last year and will look to swim close to that time.

 

7.  Canada - 3:11.11

• Josh Liendo - 47.55
• Yuri Kisil - 48.19
• Finlay Knox - 48.29
• Javier Acevedo - 48.58

 

This is Canada's best chance at getting a men's relay medal. Although the team lost Ruslan Gaziev due to a whereabouts failure suspension, Yuri Kisil has returned this year after being injured last year finishing in 2nd at trials near his PB. Josh Liendo is one of the best in the world and Finlay Knox has made significant improvements this year. The medal potential is there but it involves all 4 swimmers being at their best.

 

6.  Italy - 3:10.89

• Alessandro Miressi - 47.72
• Leonardo Deplano - 48.09
• Manuel Frigo - 48.25
• Lorenzo Zazzeri - 48.33

 

While Miressi hasn't been as fast as his 47.54 from last year so far, the other 3 guys have all dropped at least 0.2 seconds from their time last year which bodes will for this relay. Thomas Ceccon could also be in the final having been as fast as 47.71 in his career.

 

5.  France - 3:10.49

• Maxime Grousset - 47.33
• Florent Manaudou - 47.90
• Rafael Fente Damers - 48.14
• Guillaume Guth - 48.62

 

France will look to start off their home Olympics with a bang and this relay definitely has the potential to medal. Maxime Grousset is one of the best sprinters in the world, 33 year old Florent Manaudou just set a new PB of 47.90 and Rafael Fente Damers is the fastest junior so far this year. It's the 4th leg that holds them back a bit. Might we see Leon Marchand on this relay?

 

4.  Great Britain - 3:10.38

• Matt Richards - 47.82
• Duncan Scott - 47.92
• Tom Dean - 47.94
• Alex Cohoon - 48.20

 

Surprised to see Great Britain down in 4th place but I guess the 100m freestyle final at trials wasn't as fast as everybody thought. Matt Richards has been as fast as 47.45 and Duncan Scott and Tom Dean have been known to produce great relay splits over their careers. Cohoon is still only 21 and could drop some more time.

 

3.  Australia - 3:10.33

• Kyle Chalmers - 47.63
• Kai Taylor - 48.01
• William Yang - 48.08
• Flynn Southam - 48.11

 

Despite many Australians on Swimswam complaining that 100 free at trials was slow, Australia still finds itself at #3 in the rankings. Kyle Chalmers was notably dealing with back spasms at Australian Trials so if he's healthy here, he should be capable of a much faster time and he just happens to be one of the greatest relay performers ever. We've seen time and time again races where he brings the Australians from something like 5th place to the podium on the final leg.

 

2.  China - 3:09.82

• Pan Zhanle - 46.80
• Wang Haoyu - 48.06
• Chen Juner - 48.13
• Ji Xinjie - 48.33

 

Thanks in most part to the world record holder, Pan Zhanle, China finds itself second in the rankings. Behind him is a slew of swimmers in the upper 48 range. Of those swimmers, Wang Haoyu has the biggest potential for a big drop as he's still only 18 years old. It'll be interesting to see where China decides to put Pan in the relay. He anchored the relay at 2023 World Championships but then lead off the relay at the 2024 World Championships where he would go on to set the current World Record.

 

1.  United States - 3:07.95

• Jack Alexy - 47.08
• Chris Guiliano - 47.25
• Caeleb Dressel - 47.53
• Hunter Armstrong - 47.59

 

And blowing away the field in aggregate time is the US. There a lot of uncertainty about the American relay last year with some people even thinking they would miss the podium, but thanks to the return to form of Caeleb Dressel combined with the emergence of Jack Alexy and Chris Guiliano as elite 100 freestylers, the US now boasts a team capable of breaking the supersuited World Record. To give an idea of how deep this relay is, Hunter Armstrong is the 4th fastest American this year and still ranks 9th in the world.

[Timezone 27]

On 7/18/2024 at 5:06 PM, JockCartier said:

Topicmaster1010 clearly stated his criteria. You don't have to like it. 

I understand that but if you want true indication who how each squad is looking should use most recent event those particular nations took seriously. 

[Topicmaster1010 4,008]

4 hours ago, Timezone said:

I understand that but if you want true indication who how each squad is looking should use most recent event those particular nations took seriously. 

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying. So the Asian games were the last event that China took seriously and not their own Olympic trials? If that's the case, did Pan Zhanle set a world record when he wasn't trying? 

 

And then that begs questions of how do you figure out which nations took which events seriously or whether or not different swimmers from the same nation had different focus meets. It's all very subjective. It makes more sense, imo, to look at results from this year (in particularly the world championships + Olympic trials for different countries)

[Timezone 27]

2 minutes ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying. So the Asian games were the last event that China took seriously and not their own Olympic trials? If that's the case, did Pan Zhanle set a world record when he wasn't trying? 

 

And then that begs questions of how do you figure out which nations took which events seriously or whether or not different swimmers from the same nation had different focus meets. It's all very subjective. It makes more sense, imo, to look at results from this year (in particularly the world championships + Olympic trials for different countries)

Zhu didn't swim backstroke the in World Championships in Doha. Swimswam have Zhu as world leading time this season. It's your rankings and can do how you like it but think more accurate using this season rankingz.