Equestrian at the Summer Olympic Games 2016

[heywoodu 15,165]

Who do you people think are the favourites in the three team events? I reckon we have a decent medal chance in the dressage and in the jumping (not the favourites, but a good chance to medal), but especially in dressage I'm wondering "where" Germany and Great Britain are nowadays.. 

 

I know Langehangenberg and Rath are gone and Werth can't use her best horses, but I see a German is leading the world rankings nonetheless..on the other hand, the British don't have tht many in the front of the world rankings.

[dcro 10,210]

10 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Who do you people think are the favourites in the three team events? I reckon we have a decent medal chance in the dressage and in the jumping (not the favourites, but a good chance to medal), but especially in dressage I'm wondering "where" Germany and Great Britain are nowadays.. 

 

I know Langehangenberg and Rath are gone and Werth can't use her best horses, but I see a German is leading the world rankings nonetheless..on the other hand, the British don't have tht many in the front of the world rankings.

 

In dressage Germany is the favorite for gold, especially after the form their riders shown at the German championships. As in most sports, World rankings are not the best reference. The key of German favoritism are the young horses that are really coming through this year. Werth will ride a younger horse which is actually better than her injured ones. They also have Dorothee Schneider & Showtime and Sonke Rothenberger & Cosmo as the shooting stars with young horses. Sonke is actually the son of Sven Rothenberger, who "deflected" from Germany to Netherlands in the 90s and actually won a couple of Olympic medals for your nation Great Britain should be the second best. Charlotte Dujardin & Valegro dropped from the top of World ranking only because they didn't compete since the Europeans last August. They also have Fiona Bigwood & Orthilia who are going very well lately.

As for Netherlands, I don't see them winning anything more than a bronze, and even that could be a problem. Edward Gal competed only once this year with Undercover, and Undercover was so tense that he almost jumped out of the arena in that competition. A lot of people are saying that the horse lost his confidence in the arena after being eliminated at the Europeans last year. And just this week, it was announced that Gal withdrew from the 1st (out of 2) Dutch selection event. " The KNHS has not disclosed that proving form at just one show can suffice for team selection." There are also some rumors that Diederik van Silfhout's horse is struggling with fitness. So it seems that Dutch team might very well depend on Adelinde Cornelissen & Parzival scores once again. Although it's never good when you have to depend on "grandpa" horse, who is already 19-years old. Considering how well USA (and Sweden) are going this year, I actually wouldn't be surprised if Dutch miss out on the team medal. USA's chances were especially boosted by Kasey Perry-Glass & Dublet, who stunned everyone in their first ever competition in Europe.

 

In eventing Germany is the favorite, following the tradition of recent years. They should be followed by New Zealand, Great Britain, USA, France and Australia. Saying that, Netherlands has overperformed at some recent championships so maybe they can do it again.

 

Traditionally, jumping is the least predictable of the three. USA, Germany, France, Netherlands and Great Britain are the big five I guess. American guy McLain Ward is looking very good this year. But we mustn't discount Switzerland, Brazil, Canada and the World selection team called "Ukraine". Yep, Ukraine's new addition to the team is Ulrich Kirchoff, German guy who won both jumping gold medals in Atlanta in 1996... Ukraine is the Azerbaijan of equestrian World, a disgrace. Their team for Rio will likely be made of two Germans, one Brazilian and one Hungarian.

[heywoodu 15,165]

Now that's what I call an excellent and very informative preview! 

 

Yeah as for the team dressage, bronze is basically what I'm hoping for with Germany and Great Britain in front of us. Obviously it's always possible to excel and take something better home, but it'd be a very nice surprise. I didn't know about the troubles in the Dutch team though, that doesn't sound very hopeful..

[dcro 10,210]

26 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Now that's what I call an excellent and very informative preview! 

 

Yeah as for the team dressage, bronze is basically what I'm hoping for with Germany and Great Britain in front of us. Obviously it's always possible to excel and take something better home, but it'd be a very nice surprise. I didn't know about the troubles in the Dutch team though, that doesn't sound very hopeful..

 

Netherlands was also an outsider at Europeans last year, but amazingly took the gold. But yeah, not looking too hopeful at the moment.

 

Btw. I just became the third Totallympics' medalist.

Edited June 15, 2016 by dcro

[mrv86 3,138]

@dcro maybe I've already ask you this, but what about Berna Pujals? Does she has a good possibility to go further that first round?

[dcro 10,210]

10 minutes ago, mrv86 said:

@dcro maybe I've already ask you this, but what about Berna Pujals? Does she has a good possibility to go further that first round?

 

Olympics have a special competition format as team medals will be decided during the first two stages of competition (both Grand Prix and Grand Prix Special). And that's different to Worlds and Europeans where only Grand Prix counts for team.

 

32 athletes will advance to Special. 4 athletes from each of top 6 teams + top 8 individuals. That actually makes things harder for individuals as all athletes from top 6 teams advance, no matter if their individual score was not high. Though, I don't think we will see many such riders advancing (1-2 at most). Pujals will be an outsider for qualification, and she will need to hit at least 70%-71% to have a chance. She got 69.920% last month in Mannheim. It's not impossible but she will need her best performance and some luck. I think it would be really cool if she makes it.

[mrv86 3,138]

1 hour ago, dcro said:

 

Olympics have a special competition format as team medals will be decided during the first two stages of competition (both Grand Prix and Grand Prix Special). And that's different to Worlds and Europeans where only Grand Prix counts for team.

 

32 athletes will advance to Special. 4 athletes from each of top 6 teams + top 8 individuals. That actually makes things harder for individuals as all athletes from top 6 teams advance, no matter if their individual score was not high. Though, I don't think we will see many such riders advancing (1-2 at most). Pujals will be an outsider for qualification, and she will need to hit at least 70%-71% to have a chance. She got 69.920% last month in Mannheim. It's not impossible but she will need her best performance and some luck. I think it would be really cool if she makes it.

Thank you very much for your answer.

Wow, that's unfair for individual athletes; i don't understand why do they privilege team competition, when it's really just the accumulation of the individual scores.

[dcro 10,210]

11 minutes ago, mrv86 said:

Thank you very much for your answer.

Wow, that's unfair for individual athletes; i don't understand why do they privilege team competition, when it's really just the accumulation of the individual scores.

 

Well, team competitions are traditionally very important in equestrian, to both national federations and athletes themselves. In eventing for example. athletes are quite ready to sacrifice their individual chances just to do some "experiments" on cross-country course. So that the following athletes on team know what's the best way to deal with certain obstacles.

[dcro 10,210]

Germany has published the jumping long list for Rio. 10 names were selected and divded in two groups.

 

Group A

Christian Ahlmann

Ludger Beerbaum

Daniel Deusser

Marcus Ehning

Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum

 

Group B

Hans-Dieter Dreher

Marco Kutscher

Janne-Friederike Meyer

Mario Stevens

Patrick Stuhlmeyer

 

I expect all the names to come from Group A. Team will be named on July 17th.

 

Meanwhile, Danish dressage championships started yesterday, Dufour won the Grand Prix. It very much looks like Cathrine Dufour, Anna Kasprzak and Agnete Kirk Thinggaard will be in Rio. The last Danish team rider will probably be either Daniel Bachmann Andersen or Mikala Munter Gundersen.

[dcro 10,210]

Canada will be represented by Belinda Trussell and Megan Lane in dressage. Technically, selection period ends on July 3rd, but since there are no more competitions in North America before the deadline it's over. Trussell is a long way in front, but there was a tight battle for the second quota. Karen Pavicic sadly lost her quota to Lane on the very last day. Riders are ranked by the average of their 4 highest scores in the past few months.

 

http://www.dressage-news.com/?p=36759