OlympicsFan 791 Posted May 15 #251 Share Posted May 15 On 5/14/2024 at 3:42 AM, Epic Failure said: In fairness, if everyone in sport simply performed to their previously established best times, sport would be very dull. Great swimmers can perform well at their trials and then get their taper wrong. It's not unheard of. Andrew in the 200IM is a prime example that a fast time is not a guarantee of a championship performance when the pressure is on. On the other hand, who predicted Hafnaoui would win the 400m free title in Tokyo? Of the 900 people who entered Swimswam's prediction competition that year, nobody had him even finishing in the top 4. So whilst some of your points are correctly identifying where are not a medal favourite, none of the predictions the other poster made are beyond the realm of possibility. The women's 4x200m free, for example, would only require a poorly timed takeover for GBR to be in with a shot of the podium (although they probably would still be fighting Canada for that spot). I said the following after the trials in April, and I stand by it. Even China is lightyears ahead of the British women in the 4x200 free relay. It would probably need a disqualification of China AND Canada for GB to win bronze. dullard and Josh 2 Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epic Failure 180 Posted May 15 #252 Share Posted May 15 5 hours ago, OlympicsFan said: Even China is lightyears ahead of the British women in the 4x200 free relay. It would probably need a disqualification of China AND Canada for GB to win bronze. China were one of the 3 teams mentioned already way ahead of GBR - them, AUS and the USA. If one of those 3 had a mishap, that's when GBR or Canada get in. Looking at their trials, Canada are probably slightly further ahead of GBR than I expected them to be, so they are definitely in pole position for taking advantage of a 'slip up'. GBR's chances are all predicated on Freya Anderson being fit. If she isn't then our slim chances disappear, even in the case of a slip up ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dantm 32 Posted May 17 #253 Share Posted May 17 On 5/16/2024 at 7:18 AM, Epic Failure said: China were one of the 3 teams mentioned already way ahead of GBR - them, AUS and the USA. If one of those 3 had a mishap, that's when GBR or Canada get in. Looking at their trials, Canada are probably slightly further ahead of GBR than I expected them to be, so they are definitely in pole position for taking advantage of a 'slip up'. GBR's chances are all predicated on Freya Anderson being fit. If she isn't then our slim chances disappear, even in the case of a slip up ahead of us. For the 200m Free,Canada have a 1.53 swimmer (McIntosh) and now another 1.55 low swimmer with an additional 2 x 1.57 swimmers. Canada are easily ahead of GB who are a clear 5th. Josh and dullard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epic Failure 180 Posted May 17 #254 Share Posted May 17 9 minutes ago, dantm said: For the 200m Free,Canada have a 1.53 swimmer (McIntosh) and now another 1.55 low swimmer with an additional 2 x 1.57 swimmers. Canada are easily ahead of GB who are a clear 5th. Hence the "slightly further ahead than I thought" part of my last comment... The collective PBs of those 4 Canadians is about 1.5 seconds ahead of the PBs of the likely GBR quartet in Paris. So definitely a gap but hardly a crazy one. Obviously, if Oleksiak or Ruck were to get back to something close to their best, that gap would considerably widen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh 7,755 Posted May 17 #255 Share Posted May 17 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Epic Failure said: Hence the "slightly further ahead than I thought" part of my last comment... The collective PBs of those 4 Canadians is about 1.5 seconds ahead of the PBs of the likely GBR quartet in Paris. So definitely a gap but hardly a crazy one. Obviously, if Oleksiak or Ruck were to get back to something close to their best, that gap would considerably widen. Well, Canada’s collective time at Trials compared to Great Britain’s time at Trials is about 5 seconds faster… McIntosh 2.5 seconds ahead of Colbert, Harvey 1 second ahead of Wood, Brousseau 0.5 of a second ahead of Harris, and O’Croinin 1 second ahead of Hope. All of the Canadians are in PB form too. Even with Anderson back somewhere near her best, it won’t be much of a contest. Of course, it’s possible that McIntosh might not swim in this relay at Paris… but unlikely IMO. Edited May 17 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epic Failure 180 Posted May 17 #256 Share Posted May 17 4 minutes ago, Josh said: Well, Canada’s collective time at Trials compared to Great Britain’s time at Trials is about 5 seconds faster… McIntosh 1.5 seconds ahead of Colbert, Harvey 1 second ahead of Wood, Brousseau 0.5 of a second ahead of Harris, and O’Croinin 1 second ahead of Hope. All of the Canadians are in PB form too. Even with Anderson back somewhere near her best, it won’t be much of a contest. Of course, it’s possible that McIntosh might not swim in this relay at Paris… but unlikely IMO. It's a good thing we don't hand out Olympic finishing spots based on trials performance then, isn't it? Also, Summer was 2.5s quicker than Colbert was, not 1.5. Again, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying that I'm favouring GBR over Canada. But I also do not believe that - if both teams are on form in Paris - the gap will be 5 seconds. I would not be surprised if it were around 1.5 seconds, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh 7,755 Posted May 17 #257 Share Posted May 17 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Epic Failure said: It's a good thing we don't hand out Olympic finishing spots based on trials performance then, isn't it? Also, Summer was 2.5s quicker than Colbert was, not 1.5. Again, for the avoidance of doubt, I'm not saying that I'm favouring GBR over Canada. But I also do not believe that - if both teams are on form in Paris - the gap will be 5 seconds. I would not be surprised if it were around 1.5 seconds, however. Canada, United States, Australia, and China have been the dominant forces in this relay for a while. I don’t see that changing, unless one of them somehow get DQd. Oops Actually I don’t see the gap being either. Maybe around 2- 2.5 seconds with Anderson, otherwise probably not. Edited May 17 by Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epic Failure 180 Posted May 17 #258 Share Posted May 17 Oh, as I said earlier, without Anderson our chances are pretty much zero. Although, all that being said, we are the current world silver medalists from the definitely-not-weird Doha WCs. Josh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nish 7 Posted May 19 #259 Share Posted May 19 (edited) Predication for NZ by Gracenote seemed bit off as usual. I’d say 22-25 is a possibility Athletics: 2 to 3 - Kerr for High Jump, Walsh for shotput and McCartney for pole vault. Canoeing - 1 Slalom (Luuka Jones for KX), 4 x for Sprint (K1 500 - 2 Fisher and Carrington, K2 500 Carrington & Hoskins, K4 500) 5 in total Rugby 7s - Both men’s and women’s. 2 Cycling - Track - 6 (W Keirin, W Sprint, W Omnium, W Team Sprint, M Madison and M Omnium). Mountain Biking - Sam Gaze - 7 in total Rowing - 4 (both men’s and women’s single sculls, men’s 4s, women’s 4s) Triathlon - 1 for Wilde Golf - Ko for women’s Swimming - 2 Clareburt and Fairweather 1 x each Equestrian - 1 x for team eventing or atleast individual for Tim Price Sailing - 3 outside chances but it really depends on their day. Trampoline - maybe if Dylan delivers 2022 WC again Edited May 19 by Nish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Maciel 1,510 Posted May 19 #260 Share Posted May 19 12 minutes ago, Nish said: Cycling - Track - 6 (W Keirin, W Sprint, W Omnium, W Team Sprint, M Madison and M Omnium). Mountain Biking - Sam Gaze - 7 in total Team Sprint or should that be Team Pursuit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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