Ireland Predictions for Paris 2024

[Oldira 88]

4 hours ago, Ogreman said:

The priority boat for the mens sweep squad seems to have shifted from the four to the pair with Ross Corrigan and Nathan Timoney who were both in the middle of the four last year together in a pair for world cup iii. Its only day one but initial results are positive for this new pair. The plan was I assume still to try and qualify the four and while not being fast enough at trials is concerning it's not the end (Might be for Ronan Byrne though). I don't mind the four not racing here if it wasn't good enough. It has two months to be ready for worlds. I just wonder why we didn't also enter a four for under23 worlds. John kearney, Jack Dorney and Adam Murphy are all still eligible at under23 level and Andrew Sheahan who was in the under23 four last year seems to have been kind of chucked in a single for that event. Its frustrating they're not in Lucerne but Antonio Maurogiovanni standards are basically you're good enough for the olympics or you don't race at all. The four can still qualify along with the pair although the goalposts for them may well end up being FOQR next year. It's a very young boat apart from Fionnan McQuillan Tolan and can improve a lot in a year.

 

Europeans was bad like really bad but I still feel really good about qualification and medal hopes for this rowing squad. It didn't seem like it because medal wise we were good at world cup ii last year but almost all of our boats improved relative to the competition as the year went on last year and I would expect the same this year. We have found a mens double that works with Philip Doyle and Daire Lynch, Paul and Fintan are back which always makes things feel much better, Women's lightweight double needs work if they want to medal again this year but i'm not worrried about qualification yet, the womens double,pair and four will all qualify although admittedly only the four looks like a definite medal contender and its a major question mark right now. Emily Hegarty is still injured but if we were changing the combination here I suspect she would be the odd one out. Imogen Magner came into the boat for Lucerne. My interpretation of that was they wanted to race the pair of Long and Hanlon together but it might be that Magner is actually a contender to race in the four. They posted the second fastest time of the heats this morning and all of their main competition is here outside of the USA.

 

Look if we fall apart over the next couple of days here and then none of our concerningly small selection at under23 worlds looks good i'll be worried but for now we have seven boats that I would be shocked if they fail to qualify, all but one of which at least in theory could medal. I personally would like to see us qualify an eighth, ninth or even tenth boat and well we still can. The mens single is up in the air and Colsh being back in the double for under 23s probably isn't a great sign. I still want a quad, I don't think I'm going to get my wish though. The four as outligned earlier could still qualify and has the athletes to do it and if Alison Bergin can medal again at under23 worlds in the womens single we are back in business there too. We should still feel great about this squad and expectations for qualification and medals should both still be very high well at least for now.

very good summation. Today did look good in fairness and I am less concerned with medals rather than getting to finals and be in qualification spots. The women’s lightweight as of now, don’t seem to have advanced this year. I’m still anxious about the 4 and Sunitas  injury is worrying. Qualifying 7 boats would be wonderful in my view. The pairs and doubles in both women’s and men’s should qualify with 11 spots available.

If we did qualify a men’s pair are they allowed to race in the FQR as part of a 4 seeing as the qualifying spots go to the NOC rather than the individuals?

 

[Ogreman 355]

1 hour ago, Oldira said:

very good summation. Today did look good in fairness and I am less concerned with medals rather than getting to finals and be in qualification spots. The women’s lightweight as of now, don’t seem to have advanced this year. I’m still anxious about the 4 and Sunitas  injury is worrying. Qualifying 7 boats would be wonderful in my view. The pairs and doubles in both women’s and men’s should qualify with 11 spots available.

If we did qualify a men’s pair are they allowed to race in the FQR as part of a 4 seeing as the qualifying spots go to the NOC rather than the individuals?

 

In my head the rule is that if an athlete qualifies a boat and then qualifies a different boat at FOQR they then have to race in the boat they qualified at FOQR at the Olympics but I think they could double up or of course not race at all but I just looked at the qualifying document and can't find anything on it so I'm wondering why I thought that. 

So I think if we qualify a pair this year and then decide that the four is actually a better option next year even though we hadn't qualified it that the two rowers from the pair could then race in the four at FOQR but we couldn't then turn around and put them back exclusively in the pair for the Olympics. I would say this is unlikely but we were a slightly different selection away from a version of this happening two years ago with the womens four.

 

I'm not 100% sure so sorry if this is wrong but I remember having the same question in the past and I think this is the answer I found. This should be a cross this bridge if we come to it but it isn't at all inconceivable that we select one pair for worlds it qualifies and then a different combination is fastest at trials next year leaving us wanting to select a four for FOQR but with at least one athlete who already qualified the pair. I'm almost certain we can do this legally but i'm not old enough/ didn't follow rowing extensively enough to know the historical context for this.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Ogreman

[Oldira 88]

Positive enough regatta from Ireland. Looks like our pairs (both), Mens Double and Lightweight Double are in strong contention for Qlympic spots. Probablt the womens double as well. I am not as sure about the Lightweight women or the womens 4. Both may have to wait for the FQR next year. I wouldnt worry at all about the Lightweight mens been beated. Paul is only back a few weeks and will be match fit by September. As of now I am going for 5 boats qualifying at the Worlds.  

[Oldira 88]

On 7/8/2023 at 1:12 AM, Ogreman said:

In my head the rule is that if an athlete qualifies a boat and then qualifies a different boat at FOQR they then have to race in the boat they qualified at FOQR at the Olympics but I think they could double up or of course not race at all but I just looked at the qualifying document and can't find anything on it so I'm wondering why I thought that. 

So I think if we qualify a pair this year and then decide that the four is actually a better option next year even though we hadn't qualified it that the two rowers from the pair could then race in the four at FOQR but we couldn't then turn around and put them back exclusively in the pair for the Olympics. I would say this is unlikely but we were a slightly different selection away from a version of this happening two years ago with the womens four.

 

I'm not 100% sure so sorry if this is wrong but I remember having the same question in the past and I think this is the answer I found. This should be a cross this bridge if we come to it but it isn't at all inconceivable that we select one pair for worlds it qualifies and then a different combination is fastest at trials next year leaving us wanting to select a four for FOQR but with at least one athlete who already qualified the pair. I'm almost certain we can do this legally but i'm not old enough/ didn't follow rowing extensively enough to know the historical context for this.

How on earth did we manbage to lose two women scullers to Team GB? Both Molly Curry and Rachael Bradley competed for Ireland up to 2021 but switched to Britain in 2022. Now both are selected for World Under 23 Championship. Are we really that rich in talent especially sculling?

[mpjmcevoy 362]

5 hours ago, Oldira said:

How on earth did we manbage to lose two women scullers to Team GB? Both Molly Curry and Rachael Bradley competed for Ireland up to 2021 but switched to Britain in 2022. Now both are selected for World Under 23 Championship. Are we really that rich in talent especially sculling?

We are, actually, pretty rich in sculling, particularly lightweight sculling as it happens. rowing is one of the few sports where there is a genuine tug-of-war, still, between GBR and IRL - both countries are now strong rowing nations; Northern Ireland rowers cross the 'divide', so we get Alan Campbell and the chambers boys went to GB. If Ulster boxing was not so imbedded in Irish boxing, you might have similar issues there, but on the whole it's an all-irland sort - rowing is the exception where its both all Ireland AND all UK on occasion.

[dodge 1,024]

Rowing is far from the exception to be fair. Cycling and athletics are both too. Hockey of course has had several individuals. 
 

Ulster Rowing has had far more GB rowers than Irish rowers too. 
 

Not a big deal for me. Individuals can make their own choices 

[Ogreman 355]

Right,I feel like it is an apt time (well it was last week but this took a while) to revisit this thread as at this point we should be able to relatively accurately project the remaining Irish qualifiers. This was a much trickier exercise than I thought it would be. I guess a lot of the could go either way qualifiers are still in play plus some of the more ambiguous qualification systems haven’t come to their conclusion yet.

 

Safe qualifiers (S) (>90%), Likely qualifiers (L) (>65%), 50-50 (F) (35-65%) , Still in with a chance (C) (5-35%), Very unlikely but still possible (V) (<5%). I also just went through and put who I actually think will qualify. To simplify things an athlete’s potential relay quota is only included in the relay’s qualification likelihood and not the individuals, Also not counting injury risk in my probabilities unless a given athlete is particularly injury prone or currently injured. I’ll try to keep my thoughts fairly brief. (Update I failed)

 

Athletics- Men’s Sprint/ hurdles- Israel Olatunde (F) (q), Mark Smyth (L) (q), Marcus Lawler (V), Robert McDonnell (F) (L if he was ever not injured), Chris O’Donnell (L) (q), Thomas Barr (S) (q), Fintan Dewhirst (V), Jack Raftery (V), Cillín Greene (V), Calum Baird (V).

 

                  Israel Olatunde probably needs to pb to be in with a chance of qualifying in addition to running five races faster than he did last year but in reality only needs to replicate his indoor form from last year outdoors. It will be interesting to see how much he focuses on indoor world championships or if he puts all his eggs in the Olympics basket. Mark Smyth just needs to continue to improve from last year, Somewhat similar to Israel in terms of his indoor form last year never translating to an equivalent time outdoors. McDonnell should qualify if he just has an injury free season but that would his first. O’Donnell (45.00) and Barr (48.70) both should get close to running qualifying times but should qualify regardless.

 

                  Men’s middle distance- Mark English (S) (q), John Fitzsimons (L) (q), Cian McPhillips (F), Conor Murphy (C), Mark Milner (V) (Only 3 can qualify). Luke McCann (L) (q), Nick Griggs (F) (q), Cathal Doyle (C- Only 2 plus Andrew Coscoran).

 

                 English and Fitzsimons have been recent major champs regulars so that shouldn’t change. McPhillips should be in with a great chance of qualifying barring injury trouble. Luke McCann and Nick Griggs both could run the qualifying time (3:33.5) but are likely rankings qualifiers regardless although given recent 1500m times there may not be many rankings quotas on offer. Cathal Doyle is actually in a qualifying position currently ahead of McCann but is probably unlikely to stay there.

 

                 Men’s Long distance- Darragh McElhenney (F) (q), Cormac Dalton (V), Barry Keane (V), Efrem Gidey (C), Peter Lynch (V), Stephen Scullion (L) (q), Ryan Creech (C), Ryan Forsyth (V), Hiko Haso (F), Darragh Kenny (L) (q), Brendan Boyce (V), Oisin Lane (V).

 

                Darragh McElhenney is another one of the many young improving athletes who may or may not qualify on this list. I reckon he will make it though. Efrem Gidey also fits into that category but would need a significant bounce back season to make it. Stephen Scullion seems like our most likely marathon qualifier after running 2:11:51 at the Dublin marathon. That is 3:40 off the qualifying time (2:08:10) but after taking significant time off after Tokyo I think he is on pace to either run it or get close enough to get a rankings spot. Hiko Haso was on pace to run the qualifying time in Valencia for most of the race before fading towards the end. 65 of the marathon qualifiers will be decided in February (right?) but only 3 I think of them will be rankings quota so shouldn’t effect things too much. Darragh Kenny is very likely to qualify in the 20k race walk. Brendan Boyce I think is focused on the mixed relay.

 

                 Men’s field events- Eric Favors (S) (q), Reece Ademola (L) (q), Sean Mockler (V).

 

                 Shot put isn’t very deep so Eric Favors should qualify comfortably. Reece Ademola is one of a few athletes who ended last year very strongly and so starts in the year in a decent ranking position albeit currently outside a quota spot. He is definitely good enough to qualify. (It’s kind of sad that potentially qualifying 2 men’s field event athletes would be a massive improvement for us.)

 

                 Women’s sprint- Molly Scott (C), Gina Akpe Moses (C), Lauren Roy (V), Lucy May Sleeman (V), Sharlene Mawdsley (S)(q), Sophie Becker (F), Roisin Harrison (C), Phil Healy (F)(q), Cliodhna Manning (V), Kelly McGrory (V).

 

                 Molly Scott is back after becoming a barrister but would need a career season to qualify. I’ll be honest, I hadn’t realised Gina Akpe-Moses was racing at all last year but she was running 11.50 by the end of the year so maybe still has a shot at an Olympic appearance. Sharlene Mawdsley is in a very strong position to qualify. I’d be somewhat surprised if none of Sophie Becker, Roisin Harrison or Phil Healy qualified in the 400. It will be interesting to see if Phil Healy can resurrect a career that has fallen apart a bit over the last couple of years when in theory she should be hitting her peak. Also I do wonder if the 200 is her best event and her recent focus on the 400 for relays purposes has hurt her individual career.

 

                  Women’s middle distance- Louise Shanahan (S)(q), Jenna Bromell (V), Geogie Hartigan (V).

 

                  Shanahan is very likely to qualify, is a pb away from running the entry standard. 3 already qualified in the 1500 so this is a short list as a result.

 

                 Women’s Long distance- Roisin Flanagan (C), Eilish Flanagan (C) Ide Nic Domhnaill (V), Michelle Finn (F), Ava O’Connor (V), Kate Veale (V), Anne Marie McGlynn (V), Aoife Cooke (V).

 

                 Eilish Flanagan obviously is already an Olympian but it is tough to see her qualifying this time around. Roisin Flanagan would need a significant pb to make it in the 5000 or the 10000. Michele Finn making her third Olympics would be some achievement and is currently in a rankings spot. Narrowly missed out for world championships last year so it is possible that happens again. It currently looks like Fionnuala McCormack will likely be alone in the marathon field which would be the first time since 2008 that we didn’t qualify multiple athletes for that race.

 

                   Women’s field events- Sommer Lecky (V), Ava Rochford (V), Ellie McCartney (V), Elizabeth Ndudi (F), Ruby Millet (V), Nicola Tuthill (C), Kate O’Connor (S)(q).

                   Sommer Lecky and Ava Rochford would both need to start jumping 10cm higher at least to put themselves in contention to qualify. Ellie McCartney is also 20cm away from contention in the Pole Vault. Obviously none of them are likely to make that big a leap (pun intended) but they might be more realistic than some of the athletes I have included here. If Elisabeth Ndudi can replicate and improve slightly on her 6.56 pb from the end of last year, she could easily qualify. She is still very young though. Tuthill is currently in a quota spot but it will be tough to keep it. Development ark for hammer throwers tends to be a slower so having recently turned 20, Paris is probably too soon. Kate O’Connor ended up being very close to not qualifying for worlds last year but hopefully one good heptathlon off the back of worlds should see her comfortably qualify this time around. She might already be safe but one good performance would probably secure it.

 

                     Relays- Mix 4*400 (S)(q), Men’s 4*400 (F) (O’Donnell, Baird, McDonnell/Greene, Raftery), Women’s 4*400 (L)(q) (Becker, Mawdsley, Healy/Harrison, Adeleke), Men’s 4*100 (V) (Smyth?, Akinola, Swinner, Olatunde) Women’s 4*100 (C) (Sleeman, Lavin, Scott, Akpe-Moses). Mixed race walk (Boyce + Veale) (L) (2q).

 

                      Right so these will be decided almost in their entirety at world relays in May. Deciding these all at the same time makes qualifying the mixed and the Men’s/ Women’s 4*400 a bit tricky. Then again every country is in the same boat and honestly our 400m depth is really good so this may end up helping us. There are 2 world rankings quotas per relay which the W4*400 and the Mixed 4*400 could get but obviously depends on what other countries opt to do.  Obviously we may decide to just focus on the mixed 4*400 or maybe even trust the M4*400 to qualify enough that we ignore the mixed event (There is a medal available for some country behind Netherlands and the USA now that Fiordaliza Cofil was found to have high testosterone and knocked out the Dominican challenge in the process. It could maybe be us). Qualifying the mixed and Women’s 4*400 would raise a number of selection headaches particularly regarding Adeleke but sure we can cross that bridge if we come to it. I would assume we would put out 4*100 squads and there are maybe the makings of decent times in both squads. The women somehow managed to qualify for 2022 worlds so maybe they can repeat the feat. (The big brain move might be to use Adeleke to help qualify the 4*100 with no intention of using her at the Olympics in the event). The world racing walking team championships will decide 13 of the 16 mixed relay (4*10km with 2 athletes) quotas with 3 additional rankings spots. We are currently 7^th in the rankings and it is only 1 qualifier per country so unless I am missing something, I think we will qualify here.

 

Badminton- Nhat Nguyen (S) (q), Rachael Darragh (L) (q), Men’s Double (2C).

 

                      Nguyen could probably miss the rest of the qualifying window and still qualify. Rachael Darragh I believe has a 10 spot buffer in the rankings at the moment but does still have work to do to secure her spot. The men’s double is currently ranked 58^th  in the world with Brazil and Mexico sitting between us and the current 16^th qualifier the USA in 51^st. It’s roughly a 2000 point gap which I think is closable but I’m not sure. If they make it, it will be by the skin of their teeth.

 

Boxing- Women’s- Daina Moorehouse- W50kg (S)(q), Jennifer Lehane (Niamh Fay)- W54kg (L) (q), Amy Broadhurst (Lisa O’Rourke, Grainne Walsh)- W66kg (S) (q).

              I have Daina Moorehouse fourth of the remaining unqualified boxers and kind of think she is more likely to beat those ahead of her than lose to someone behind her so I feel very comfortable about her chances. There are about 10 or so bantamweight boxers all of a relatively equal standard left in the draw so Lehane’s task is a bit tougher but still fairly doable. A lot of these weight have one or two nightmare draws left in the qualifying tournaments. At 66kg we are the nightmare draw whether it is Amy Broadhurst or Lisa O’Rourke. I have no idea which we will select but I don’t think it should be Grainne Walsh. Her Olympic medal chances just aren’t good enough compared to the other two.

 

            Men’s- Sean Mari- M51kg (V) , Jude Gallagher (Dylan Eagleson)- M57kg (F) (q), Dean Walsh (Aidan Walsh, Eugene McKeever)- M71kg (F), Kelyn Cassidy (Gabriel Dossen?)- M80kg  (L) (q), Martin McDonagh- M92+kg (V)

 

            Sean Mari would need the performance of his life and a favourable draw just to be in with a chance of qualifying. I have Jude Gallagher projected as the last qualifier at featherweight so it is possible the draw decides whether or not he makes it. It will be interesting if he doesn’t make it at the first one if we would then pick Eagleson. I have no clue what 71kg ends up looking like. Aidan Walsh did a podcast in December with Cavan gaa which seemed to suggest (along with his absence at national champs) that he had stepped away from the high performance setup for mental health reasons but apparently he is back in the squad (if he ever actually left that is). Dean Walsh I have talked about before but he falls into the could qualify for the Olympics but is realistically unlikely to category. Eugene McKeever’s inclusion in the training squad is interesting as first of all I thought Jon McConnell was ahead of him in the pecking order and secondly probably not a great sign for a. the coaching staff’s confidence in Dean Walsh or b. Aidan Walsh definitely being available. Kelyn Cassidy is in theory our most secure male remaining qualifier but has been inconsistent at times in the past and I do have some concern about his ability to go through the rounds as he would likely need four wins to make the Olympics especially given his propensity to get on referees nerves for whatever reason. Gabriel Dossen was surprisingly not included in the training squad. The reason for that is unclear but I would be shocked if it was performance related. (Turning pro?, Injured?, Caught selling weed again?). I think Martin McDonagh has impressed enough to get a shot so I would expect to see him get selected for the qualifiers. Expecting him to qualify is probably optimistic although superheavy is a pretty shallow division.

 

Strandja is the first week of February before the first qualifier in the first week of March. It will be interesting whether we send the entire squad to Strandja or rest the ones who will picked for the qualifiers. An extension of this is whether we select (perhaps have already selected) the squad before Strandja or in particular at W66kg and M71kg do we wait for Strandja’s results and pick the team afterwards.

 

Canoe sprint- C2 (Jennifer Egan, Éabha Ni Drisceoil) (V).

 

                        Europeans are in May, It would be a massive shock if they managed to qualify.

 

Cycling BMX- Ryan Henderson (V).

          

Cycling Mountain Biking- Chris Dawson (V).

 

                                              If only downhill mountain biking was the Olympic discipline. 

 

Cycling Track - Women’s team pursuit (4S) (Gillespie, Griffin, Sharpe, Murphy, (Creighton)).     

                 

                          Should have done this before Europeans but position looks even safer now. I think should get a madison spot if we did inexplicably fall out of a quota position.

 

Diving- Clare Cryan (L) (q), Jake Passmore (F) (q), Ciara McGing (C).

 

              Don’t have much analysis to add here. Clare Cryan just needs to replicate last year’s worlds performance this time and she will be safely qualified, Jake Passmore and Ciara McGing both need significant improvements but especially in Passmore’s case that are well within them. It would be disappointing if we don’t get two qualifiers here albeit it is still possible we get none.

 

Equestrian- Dressage- Anna Merveldt (S).

 

                      See Oldira's post below

 

Field Hockey- Men (16C), Women (16C).

 

                         The next big qualifier on the list. Both teams in similar situations where they are underdogs but absolutely capable of qualifying. If either team makes it we will set a significant new record qualified athletes total otherwise it will be close in terms of beating the total we got in Tokyo. It would be a bit of a momentum killer for Irish hockey if both teams fall short but that is the most likely scenario.

 

Golf- Rory McIlroy (S), Shane Lowry (S), Leona Maguire (S), Stephanie Meadow (S).

 

          Seamus Power’s form fading as last year went on has really any intrigue out of this from a qualifying perspective. The one thing I would mention is Olivia Mehaffey who is our third ranked woman I think wouldn’t currently be in a qualifying position in the event of an injury, just something to keep an eye on just in case.

 

Gymnastics- Women’s- Emma Slevin (C), Halle Hilton (C).

 

                       So in terms of what is still available there are 2 apparatus (can compete all-around at Olympics) per apparatus at the world cup series (best 3 results of 4, top 16 score points although the big points are for podiums) and then one all-around quota at Europeans that is, well gone if the Russians decide they want it. So I spent a while trying to figure this out (Helpful table below). I think Halle Hilton’s most likely route is floor which at least last year seemed to be the easiest event to get a quota from. Beam and vault are also possible but less likely. Vault is likely Emma Slevin’s most likely path to a quota spot but if last years results are replicated it would be very difficult to secure a quota. (Last thing is I’m not entirely sure whether one country can qualify multiple athletes through the world cups provided they remain under 3 total qualifiers or if there is only one quota per gender per country available. If it is the latter which I think it is, it might help our chances ever so slightly).

 

                       Men’s- Eamon Montgomery (C), Adam Steele (V), Dominick Cunningham (C).

 

                       So Eamon Montgomery would have qualified on floor if it was based off last years world cup series rankings but obviously the degree of difficulty will increase this time around with the Olympics on the line. Realistically he needs to make 3 finals and then score high 13s/14s to put himself in with a chance. At his peak he has shown himself to be capable of that but hasn’t done it consistently. Rhys McClenaghan’s floor plans also come into this. He won trials last November and so has earned the right to compete on floor at the world cups but we are restricted to two entries per event so it would mean neither Dominick Cunnigham or Adam Steele could try to qualify on floor. Vault is likely their best chance and Dom’s scores don’t leave him too far away. If he consistently scores in the 14s which he is capable of he won’t be too far away. Adam competed on pommel at last year’s world cups but there is zero chance he can get a quota there. His best chance is probably to hope the Russians don’t show up at Europeans and then try to nail all-around there but that is very unlikely to yield a quota spot. There were 5/6 athletes who would have qualified ahead of him if it was last year’s Europeans.

 

	Score required to make final
	Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor		Men's Floor	Men's Vault
Cottbus	12.55	12.7	12.833	13		13.933	14.166
Doha	12.599	12.4	12.9	12.233		13.466	14.099
Baku	12.599	12.933	12.733	12.4		13.633	14.183
Cairo	12.583	12.5	12.233	12.2		13.4	13.933
	Would be qualifiers last year
	3rd (41 points)	8th (25 points)	6th (30 points)	12th (21.5 points)		5th (32 points)	4th (53 points)

 

Judo- Rachael Hawkes (C)?, Joshua Green (V).

 

           Rachael Hawkes has slipped significantly in the rankings down to 54^th  in the W70kg. She would need to move up about 20 places to put herself in with a chance but she was in that range midway through last year. Josh Green is ranked similarly in 53^rd in the M73kg but would need to get all the way into the top 25 to have a shot. I don’t think we are getting a judo quota.

 

Modern Pentathlon- Sive Brassil (V)

 

                                     Would need a massive improvement in 2024 to put herself in contention

 

Rowing- Women- Women’s four (S) (4q), Women’s single (V)

 

                The four should be a selection battle between last years four (Natalie Long, Sanita Puspure, Imogen Magner, Eimear Lambe) plus the injured Emily Hegarty and always the odd woman out Tara Hanlon (Plus possibly Aisling Hayes/ Holly Davis). I reckon it will end up being (Magner, Puspure, Lambe, Hegarty) although it is possible that Lambe forces her way into the pair. Anyway this boat should qualify. Denmark will also be strong but Canada will likely the boat we need to beat and it is their secondary boat behind their eight. The scenarios where we try to qualify a single are Siobhan McCrohan can’t force her way into the lightweight double and gets a shot here instead, Sanita decides to end her career where she spent most of it or junior world silver medallist Holly Davis is way ahead of schedule. Unfortunately I can’t see a scenario where we try to qualify a quad. An eight might just be doable if the pair doubled up but I don’t think we would consider it.

 

                Men- Men’s quad (F) (4q), Men’s four (C), Men’s single (V).

 

                A few months removed from a disappointing world champs for the quad (Konan Pazzaia, Ronan Byrne, Andrew Sheahan, Brian Colsh) and the four (Adam Murphy, Fionnan McQuillan Tolan, Jack Dorney, John Kearney), I feel better about both boats chances. I’m not sure we got the combination right for worlds in the quad but I do think there is a fast quad in this squad that is not only good enough to qualify but can be competitive at the Olympics. I do wonder if Brian Colsh will force his way into the double over Daire Lynch although the Philip Doyle, Colsh double was possible in 2022 and they went with Colsh in the single and Pazzaia in the double so they may have already decided Doyle and Colsh aren’t a good combination. Then again I think of all the potential changes to the already qualified combinations (and given how much Maurogiovanni has liked to tinker over the past couple of years there will be one or two) this is the most obvious. The four had a miserable worlds but is certainly capable of rapid improvement given the age profile and pedigree of the athletes in the boat. I do wonder if we would sacrifice the four in favour of just focusing on a quad and potentially moving Kearney or Dorney into that boat. I do hope we don’t operate with stringent sweep and sculling squads this year because allowing movement between the four and the quad could optimise both. The only scenario where we utilise a single is if we give up on the four or the quad.

 

              Finally as a bold prediction for the year, I think we might out of choice race a new combination together at the Olympics. We have done it relatively successfully at two consecutive worlds so why not the Olympics.

              (This is the short version, Originally I wrote 1500 words on rowing)

 

Shooting- Aoife Gormally (C)?, Jack Fairclough (V), Derek Burnett (V).

 

                  This is the qualification system I understand the least. There are I think 4 potential quota spots still available to us in trap (Gormally and Burnett) and skeet (Fairclough). 1 at Europeans, 2 at a final qualification event and 1 via rankings. Aoife Gormally is the only one who seems remotely likely to get a rankings spot but likely won’t.            

 

Swimming- Women- Danielle Hill (L) (q), Victoria Catterson (V), Maria Godden (V), Grace Davison (V), Erin Riordan (V), Niamh Coyne (V), Ellie McCartney (V).

 

                     So it is still quite unclear how many athletes will qualify via consideration times (OCT) but my quick (not very thorough) calculations suggest not very many (2/3 per event maybe). So I think to qualify individually a swimmer will need to either hit the qualifying time or get very close to it. I’m not sure why Danielle Hill isn’t at worlds but I would be fairly confident she can swim a qualifying time in the 100 back at Irish champs. I wouldn’t completely rule out Catterson or Godden but they both seem very unlikely. Davison and Riordan’s qualification likely depends on the freestyle relay qualifying.

 

                      Men- Tom Fannon (F) (q), Calum Bain (V), Shane Ryan (F), Darragh Greene (C), Eoin Corby (V), Conor Ferguson (F), Max McCusker (V), Evan Bailey (V) John Shortt (F) (q), Nathan Wiffen (L) (q).

 

                                The picture on the men’s side of things is quite murky. Tom Fannon showed he was capable of swimming the 50m OQT but has to do it again. (Unless we change our selection policy, which we 100% definitely have never done in the past). Calum Bain isn’t that far behind him. Shane Ryan needs to get back in pb shape to qualify but you wouldn’t put it passed him. Darragh Greene also needs pb shape but is probably less likely to get back to it than Shane. Safer selection for the relay though. Conor Ferguson was unfortunate not to swim an OCT in the 100 back but probably needs to take a couple of tenths off his pb to qualify. I do like his chances though. It should be noted that we can only get 1 OCT qualifier per event so Ryan and Ferguson couldn’t both make it in the 100 back unless they both get the OQT. I think John Shortt will qualify. A 1.1 second pb to the OQT for a 16 year old in year feels very doable. Nathan Wiffen is slightly hindered by not being selected for worlds but if his short course form is anything to go on it would surprising if he didn’t get either of the 800 or 1500m OQTs.

                      Relays- Men’s medley (2q) (L) (WCs Ferguson, Greene, McCusker, Ryan), Women’s medley (q) (S) (Hill, Mcsharry, Walshe, Catterson), Womens 4*100 freestyle (F) (McSharry, Hill, Riordan (Davison), Catterson).

 

                                  The women’s medley relay should be safe and means that Hill and Catterson should qualify regardless of their individual fortunes although not being able to improve on the time at this years worlds will lead to a nervous watch this year. The women’s freestyle 4*100 is obviously in a very precarious position in 15^th but it is possible that there will only be 18 or so entries this time around as well. We can improve our time too so it is a bit of a wait and see. I do wonder if we would use both quotas if we do qualify ie Riordan and Davison or use Hill and only use one of the additional relay quotas. The men’s medley is more up in the air. Obviously we are currently 13^th and would be pretty hopeful of swimming a faster time at this worlds although I think our attitude going in needs to be that we need a faster time to qualify. Then if we do qualify then we need two individual quotas (although the qualification document mentions scope for potentially a third one being granted). I somewhat doubt that 2 of the relay we put out last year will qualify although I hope we can get there. However if I am right that Tom Fannon and John Shortt both qualify then the relay picks would very likely be Greene and McCusker in that scenario.

 

Taekwondo- Jack Woolley (S) (q), Leroy Nsilu Dilandu (V).

 

                      It’s annoying that Jack narrowly missed out on a rankings quota but he will be the massive favourite at the European qualifiers. It would be a major shock if Dilandu got close to qualifying.

 

Triathlon- Russell White (C) (135 in the rankings) James Edgar (V) Erin McConnell (V).

 

                  Russell White has made it up to 135^th in the rankings off the back of a series of races towards the end of last year. 85^th is currently the last quota spot so it certainly is still possible he could make his second Olympics. Edgar and McConnell are very unlikely to qualify.

 

Weightlifting- Thammy Nguyen (C), Sean Browne (V)

 

                         Thammy Nguyen it appears would need a 17kg pb to qualify. That seems unlikely to me but I have no idea how the weightlifting quotas will end up looking so it possible she is actually much closer than that. Sean Browne would need an even bigger pb.

 

	Very unlikely qualifers	In with a chance	Fifty-fifty	Likely qualifers	Safe qualifiers	My picks	Already qualifed	Total
Athletics	31	14	12	9	7	20	8	28
Badminton	0	2	0	1	1	2	0	2
Boxing	2	0	2	2	2	5	5	10
Canoe- slalom	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Canoe- sprint	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- BMX	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Mountain Biking	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cycling- Road	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Cycling- Track	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	4
Diving	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	2
Equestrian	0	0	0	0	1	1	6	6
Field Hockey	0	32	0	0	0	0	0	0
Golf	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	4
Gymnastics artistic	1	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
Judo	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Modern Pentathlon	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rowing	2	4	4	0	4	8	12	20
Rugby Sevens	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	24
Sailing	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
Shooting	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Swimming	10	1	6	3	2	7	3	10
Taekwondo	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
Triathlon	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Weightlifting	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
	58	62	25	16	26	54	69	123

 

My projection	Probabalistic E(q)	Floor	Ceiling
123	129.1	113.35	139.15

So there are lots of flaws with the probabilistic approach including some double counting and also for example a hockey team for example can either qualify 16 or 0 and can never actually qualify the 6 or so hockey qualifiers that that approach projects. Ceiling and Floor are both just me shifting the probabilities up or down for the different categories. I would take them with a grain of salt but I just thought it was an interesting thing to do.

 

Anyway 120 qualifers feels pretty secure although a bad athletics summer is probably the most likely cause if we do fall short of that. A similar exercise that I did last March projected 118 qualifers so seemingly we are at worst on track for the qualifiers that have been decided so far. The one negative is in terms of spread of sports qualified in we look likely to be significantly behind Tokyo.

 

I am fully prepared for a disastrous couple of early season events in rowing/ boxing/ swimming to change this but right now I must say I am very optimistic with where we are both from a qualification and medal perspective.

Edited January 13 by Ogreman

[Oldira 88]

I think it’s pretty certain we will win a quota in Dressage. The Brazil team failed to make the MER and there was no qualifier from Group so there are two composites (Finland and Portugal) meaning we get the individual quota that Finland had. You can move Dressage to a S.

Excellent article btw.

[dodge 1,024]

Just a couple of points. In badminton, Rachael Darragh has a bigger cushion than 10 spots. Shes ranked 60th and the last qualifier at the moment is 83rd in the world. Shes 28th of the 36 spots, but the cushion is nearly 7,000 ranking points. She will make it 

 

In Hockey, the men are ranked 4th and the women 5th in the qualifiers. Men should make the semis and it’ll boil down to whether they win the 3rd place play off. Theres little in the rankings there too

 

Our most likely chance in gymnastics is unfortunately injury to those individuals who qualified at the world champs. They’re personal, not national, quotas and would be reallocated 

 

Shooting will have unused spots to reallocate. We got it last time through Burnett’s MER score in the cycle. Gormally could get that. As you said it’s complicated but it’s effectively trying to spread the quotas out a little 

 

Similarly weightlifting will spread quotas around. Browne was way down the rankings last time but only a host place selection from Japan stopped him qualifying. 

[Ogreman 355]

1 hour ago, dodge said:

 

Our most likely chance in gymnastics is unfortunately injury to those individuals who qualified at the world champs. They’re personal, not national, quotas and would be reallocated 

Bro, Get your hopes up for the world cup series qualifiers. There are a couple like pommel and rings where the standard required to qualify will be ridiculously high but some of them are definitely attainable. Like I wouldn't pick us to get any of them but we will be in the shake up. Also on review I think Russia won't be allowed at Europeans so that all-around quota is not quite as but still mostly out of the question. There are five or so gymnasts between Halle Hilton and a reallocated quota. It's not impossible if some of them qualify through other means but Hilton getting an actually quota herself is much more likely than picking up a reallocated one.

 

We seem to be looking at different badminton rankings but I'll believe you and yeah I probably should have put Rachael Darragh down as a safe qualifier.