Ireland Predictions for Paris 2024

[OlympicIRL 5,668]

We are just 2 years out from the Paris 2024 Olympics so I thought it would be nice time to open a thread so we can write our hopes for Ireland at the next Games.

 

How many medals do you think we will win?

 

Do you think we have made progress in this Olympic cycle in comparison to previous ones?

 

Which sports are performing better / worse than expected?

 

Which athletes do you think we are going to be talking about as medal prospects in 2 years time?

 

What would constitute a good, average or bad Games for Ireland in terms of medals and overall performance?

 

How many athletes do you think we will qualify?

 

 

@dodge @Oldira @Cosmo Kramer @mpjmcevoy  What are your thoughts? Would be fun to look back at this in 2 years time just after the Olympics to see how things change in that time.

[dodge 1,040]

2 years out, here's some sport by sports thoughts

 

Rowing - Obviously in good shape. The lightweight double are amazing. Seems like Fintan has got stronger. The women's lightweight have changed and they seem to have improved. Still young but might be too early to call them medal contenders. The womens four and the womens pair will need to be sorted in terms of boat make up but I'd expect both to qualify easily. Women's double is a bit more up in the air as Sanita is getting on and doesn't seem to stay fit. Would be amazing to get that 8 in! We've a very good young nucleus on the men's side but Paris might be a bit away. The double of Byrne and Doyle has been split up with Doyle going solo for now. Corrigan added to Byrne but none of them selected for the Europeans so obviously work to do there

 

Boxing - The big decision is whether Kellie Harrington or Amy broadhurst gets the 60kg spot. I'd expect qualifiers at most womens weights and if Lisa O'Rourke continues to develop, she'll be a medal favourite. Others like Michaela Walshe will need a bit of luck with the draw etc. AIdan got that luck in Tokyo but looked great at recent commonwealths. The men's team is in the early stages of reinventing itself but young talents like Jude gallagher, Dylan Eagleson, Gabriel Dossen, Jack Marley and Dean Clancy are all exciting

 

Athletics - Obviously Adeleke is our most exciting talent in years. Remains to be seen if she can medal on the world stage but great to have her competitive at such a young age. She'll still only be 21 in Paris! We'll have roughly the same qualifiers as always and very few chances of reaching a final, never mind a medal. They've been smart to target relays so hopefully that continues

 

Equestrian - The show jumping are definitely world class. But we all know how tricky that sport can be to get right on the day/days. 3 day eventing always out performs the showjumpers but only really Cathal Daniels can be considered world class with Rioghan Rua. We might have one in dressage too

 

Swimming. We actually have 3 world class swimmers now in McSharry, Walshe and Wiffen. Likely no medals but there's definitely finals potential there. Again, we'll see how they attack relay qualification for Paris

 

Sailing - Eve McMahon and Finn Lynch have both have outstanding results in the single seater boats over last 18 months with McMahon being by far the best young sailor in the world. Paris might be too soon for her. Waddilove and Dickson may be medal contendors

 

Cycling - the road race may be a lottery but we have quality riders and should qualify 4. Alice Sharpe might even qualify on the road for the women. The womens team pursuit should qualify giving us a chance in the crazy madison too. Hopefully we get the solo omnium spot too for a team of 5. Looks like JB Murphy is the only track man at the moment

 

Golf - We'll qualify 4 and have chances with Maguire and whoever the men are

 

Taekwondo - Jack should qualify but he rarely makes medal matches at the very top

 

Gymnastics - Fingers crossed for Rhys and we'll likely have a woman in too

 

Canoeing - I expect us to qualify in the C1, could be any of Jegou, Hendrick or Cochrane. 

 

Badminton - Nhat Nguyen will qualify

 

Shooting - Maybe Aoife Gormally will continue to improve. Ian O'Sullivan looks to have lost all form

 

Triathlon - Carolyn Hayes hasn't competed since Tokyo. Hopefully she's back at it soon. The men look way off the standard required

 

Modern Pentathlon - Coyle isn't officially retired but hasn't competed since Tokyo. Brisell might qualify but wouldn't be guaranteed

 

Judo - Ben Fletcher is another who hasn't competed. Without him we likely won't have a qualifier

 

In the team sports, the hockey women are in a bit of a post Tokyo lull. Both they and the men need to improve. The rugby 7s teams both look to have stepped up and we might qualify in both this time. The women look much stronger than previous years. The men's football team aren't ruled out yet either....

 

[Oldira 88]

I'd agree with all that Dodge has written and I imagine he will be proven right in 2024.

 

I think that we will 5 medals in Paris. (2 rowing, 2 boxing and 1 other)

 

I think we will qualify somewhere between 90 and 100. We will also qualify in a fewer number of sports that 2020.

 

Its great to see Irish Athlethes reacing the European finals but to even get to an Olympic Final would need big improvements for the likes of Israel and Rhasidat. Perhaps 2028 might be their year. Kate O'Connor has the potential to be World Class but seems dogged by injury.

 

A few thoughts on individual Sports>>

 

Rugby Sevens: Both teams seem to be doing well and I'd be very surprised if both dont qualify for Paris especially now as France are automatically qualified. 

 

Gymnastics: Hopefully I am wrong but Rhys's stumble in Tokyo seems to have dented his confidence as he has made other errors in finals since then. Hopefully he will prove me wrong staring this Sunday.

 

Cycling: The Road Race has been reduced to 90 from 130 and based on current rankings we wouldjust qualify one rider. I cannot see us qualifying any more than 2. Our mens track team seem to hve disapperared since 2021 and unless JB Murphy gets a artner we wont qualify any men.

 

Pentathlon: Our glory days in Pentathlon seem over. Natalya seems to have retired although she did say she was taking a years break but her Social Media has basically gone dark. 

 

Triathlon: Carolyn Hayes is on a break but is still posting about Paris24 so hopefully she will return

 

Hockey: Our womens team have regressed since 2018-2019 and I would not be confident they will qualify for Paris. 

 

I'm a lot less confident about this Olympic cycle than the last one, particularly regarding team size. Its quite possible we will fail to qualify in Judo, Pentathlon, Triathlon, Hockey and Shooting and I don't see any new sports having qualifiers. We will again be relying on Boxing and Rowing and a bit of luck in the 'on the day'sports like Showjumping, Golf and Gymnastics for medals. If we did win 5 medals that would be very satisfactory but for a country our size we really should be targeting 7-8 especially in a European venue.

[dodge 1,040]

On the rowing... Philip Doyle posted on his instagram that he's in a pre-Worlds training camp in Italy so it'll be interesting to see what kind of team we send there. The women's 6 (4+2) are definitely in Italy too 

[OlympicIRL 5,668]

I think Daniel Wiffen is an exciting prospect for Paris. He’s already in and around top 8 in 800m freestyle which is his best event and he reached the world final this year. But at the Commonwealths he also brought his 400 and 1500 times to a world class level which will certainly bode well for his future progress in the 800.

 

If he can keep progressing over the next 2 years he could very well be in with a shout of being on the podium. You can’t take anything for granted though but I think he’ll be our best shot a medal in the pool in Paris. Even if he doesn’t medal, it would be amazing to see an Irish athlete who can mix it with the best and give us something to really cheer for.

 

I am not confident any of our hockey teams will make it. The men aren’t really competitive enough with the top teams these days and the women have proved to be very beatable in recent years.

 

I think we will have both rugby sevens teams at the Olympics however and hopefully they can put in a good showing there.

 

I think we will qualify in fewer sports this time and fewer athletes (maybe around 90-100) but rugby sevens and athletics might help boost our numbers even if we lose out in other areas like hockey, judo, pentathlon, possibly cycling (though we could go up in that sport too if we have a good couple of years).

 

I think we’ll win 4-5 medals which if I’m honest would be disappointing after Tokyo and considering we have an established aim to ramp up our medals  in the coming cycles.

 

I think though if we can win 2 golds again it will be another big boost to morale and if we do finish with 4-5 medals but with 2 golds, it wouldn’t be considered a total disaster.

 

I am kind of pinning all my hopes on rowing. And I don’t mean that rowing is the only sport we can win medals. But I am hoping we can be in a position going into the Olympics where are expecting a couple of medals and then hoping other sports like boxing can add the icing on the cake.

[dodge 1,040]

After tonight, I wouldn’t rule out a medal for Adeleke. I’ve always tried to dampen some expectations others had for her but time at 19 is as good as every other world class 400m runner

[Cosmo Kramer 24]

I'd like to see us win five medals - I kind of feel like that should be a base line for us moving forward - a medal per million of the population! Obviously it's easy to say that but whether we can actually achieve it or not is another thing. I was slightly disappointed that we only ended up with the four in Tokyo, but then two of them being gold balanced out the slight underperformance in terms of overall medals relative to expectations going into the games.

 

In terms of individual competitors I think Adeleke has the potential to be the star of the games for us. Not that she'll necessarily win a medal - though she might if she keeps improving at the rate she's going - but we have seen this week how big a deal having one or two genuinely top class track athletes is, especially in the sprints. I can't remember any recent European athletics championships getting the Irish media coverage the current one is - not since the days of Sonia - and that's without us winning a single medal so far.

 

As much as we enjoy following all the other sports athletics will always be the biggest event in any Olympic games. It's the sport that has the most cut through in terms of potentially creating an "Italia 90 moment" (for the want of a better phrase) in a way that a sport like rowing or gymnastics never will among the wider population who only tune in for the biggest events. So having someone like Adeleke going in as a likely finalist and possible medalist would be great.

 

Obviously Olatunde also, but a semi final would probably be a more realistic aim for him. How amazing would it be to see an Irishman in the men's 100m Olympic final some day though...maybe 2028 for that! What I like the most about both of them is that they seem to be able to peak on the big day - that's a great advantage at a major finals when others often underperform.

 

Also Kate O'Connor - I don't know that she'll ever be an Olympic medal contender - but great to have an international quality heptathlete all the same. I don't generally bother with the Commonwealth games given the lack of Irish interest, but I made a point of watching it this year the days she was competing for NI and it was very enjoyable.

 

Outside of athletics we'll obviously lean heavily on boxing and rowing again for medal hopes. Is there a possibility of both Harrington and Broadhurst competing at different weights or is that gone now - I had thought that was potentially an option at one point? In rowing the men's lightweights will probably be our biggest medal "banker" of the games.

 

In swimming I'd agree with what has already been said about Wiffen - he seems to have made consistent and significant improvements over the last couple of years that suggest he's our best hope in the pool. McSharry has maybe just stalled a bit, if she could find something extra she might yet contend though.

 

The other thing I'd really like to see is Rhys McClenaghan put to bed what happened in Tokyo by winning a medal. I'll be watching that event from behind the sofa though, the pommel is torture to watch when you're invested in it!

 

Finally, in terms of team size, realistically it's going to be down on Tokyo purely because we had such an impressive size of team there, padded out by the hockey team who may not make it this time. But I'd still hope it might be one of our biggest ever teams other than Tokyo to hopefully highlight the significant and sustained improvements we're making in Olympic sports since the medal free days of the Athens games and before.

 

 

 

[dodge 1,040]

Even without Hockey and Rugby, Tokyo would have been our biggest team. I'm confident we'll match that number.

 

 

[mpjmcevoy 375]

On 8/18/2022 at 6:50 AM, Cosmo Kramer said:

I'd like to see us win five medals - I kind of feel like that should be a base line for us moving forward - a medal per million of the population! Obviously it's easy to say that but whether we can actually achieve it or not is another thing. I was slightly disappointed that we only ended up with the four in Tokyo, but then two of them being gold balanced out the slight underperformance in terms of overall medals relative to expectations going into the games.

 

In terms of individual competitors I think Adeleke has the potential to be the star of the games for us. Not that she'll necessarily win a medal - though she might if she keeps improving at the rate she's going - but we have seen this week how big a deal having one or two genuinely top class track athletes is, especially in the sprints. I can't remember any recent European athletics championships getting the Irish media coverage the current one is - not since the days of Sonia - and that's without us winning a single medal so far.

 

As much as we enjoy following all the other sports athletics will always be the biggest event in any Olympic games. It's the sport that has the most cut through in terms of potentially creating an "Italia 90 moment" (for the want of a better phrase) in a way that a sport like rowing or gymnastics never will among the wider population who only tune in for the biggest events. So having someone like Adeleke going in as a likely finalist and possible medalist would be great.

 

Obviously Olatunde also, but a semi final would probably be a more realistic aim for him. How amazing would it be to see an Irishman in the men's 100m Olympic final some day though...maybe 2028 for that! What I like the most about both of them is that they seem to be able to peak on the big day - that's a great advantage at a major finals when others often underperform.

 

Also Kate O'Connor - I don't know that she'll ever be an Olympic medal contender - but great to have an international quality heptathlete all the same. I don't generally bother with the Commonwealth games given the lack of Irish interest, but I made a point of watching it this year the days she was competing for NI and it was very enjoyable.

 

Outside of athletics we'll obviously lean heavily on boxing and rowing again for medal hopes. Is there a possibility of both Harrington and Broadhurst competing at different weights or is that gone now - I had thought that was potentially an option at one point? In rowing the men's lightweights will probably be our biggest medal "banker" of the games.

 

In swimming I'd agree with what has already been said about Wiffen - he seems to have made consistent and significant improvements over the last couple of years that suggest he's our best hope in the pool. McSharry has maybe just stalled a bit, if she could find something extra she might yet contend though.

 

The other thing I'd really like to see is Rhys McClenaghan put to bed what happened in Tokyo by winning a medal. I'll be watching that event from behind the sofa though, the pommel is torture to watch when you're invested in it!

 

Finally, in terms of team size, realistically it's going to be down on Tokyo purely because we had such an impressive size of team there, padded out by the hockey team who may not make it this time. But I'd still hope it might be one of our biggest ever teams other than Tokyo to hopefully highlight the significant and sustained improvements we're making in Olympic sports since the medal free days of the Athens games and before.

 

 

 

When you are talking about a small country with a single digit medal expectation, the odd result here or there can have an undue effect on how we view our success - we ain't USA or China or GB or Germany, and we probably shouldn't think in the ways they think. A qualifier for us is, and should be, a big deal. A finalist for us is a REALLY big deal. A medalist is a hero for life, but qualifiers and finalists are a better measure, I think.

 

In gymnastics, I'm reasonably confident Rhys will make Paris, and if he hits his big routine on the day, he medals IMHO - probably not gold because there are a small number of difficulty monsters who can simply outmuscle his great technique, but on a good day with a fair wind, anything is possible. The addition of Dom Cunningham, a solid AA worker and a really solid vaulter and the emergence of Eamon Montgomery as a top class floor worker is also exciting.

 

In Athletics, if you aren't excited by the astonishing Rhasidat Adaleke - 9th in the world, 5th in Europe, at the end of a brutal NCAA season in her first part time year in the event, you best see a doctor - nothing is guaranteed, certainly not for Paris, but Rhasidat is an order of talent above what we are used to here. I'm strongly hoping Gina Moses comes back from her injuries too, and Israel pushes on from his superb season. Ciara Mageean's breakthrough to 'Muir' level has been revelatory, and I'm genuinely excited for what would probably be her last games, but there's also a lot of talented jrs and cadets floating about in the middle distance. Kate O'Connor also looks an exciting prospect.

 

In swimming we've unfortunately lost a couple of guys in the last few months to GBR, taking the Firth route, but that is what it is. McSharry and Wiffen I watch with interest. Rudd is making bricks with straw in that program, and my main fear is he goes back to GBR as head coach - he and Mel Marshall seem the obvious candidates next time round.

 

Rowing and boxing remain our mainstays, and we're world class in boxing, and in lightweight rowing, while our heavyweight rowing is coming along nicely. Given where we were in rowing a decade a go, it's kind of astonishing.

 

Sadly, in cycling, we seem to be in a minor trough, but McIlroy's return to form bodes well for the golf.

 

In rugby 7's we just won bronze in the Worlds. We are a real, if outside, medal shout in that sport. I think the women will qualify too. In hockey, our golden period appears to be over, but...

[dodge 1,040]

How we feeling now folks? Needle hasn't moved much in recent months except for our mens 7s rugby side who seem to be consistently getting good results now