Team Ireland - Paris 2024 Qualification Tracker

[Ogreman 360]

10 minutes ago, dodge said:

I think we’ll add 2 at the next one

Why just 2?

 

Something will have to have gone very wrong if Daina Moorehouse, Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst or Kelyn Cassidy don't secure a quota at the last one. I would rank us 1st of the remaining boxers at W50kg and W66kg (regardless of who we pick). Cassidy just needs to avoid Alfiorau although he could absolutely beat him even if he did draw him. 

Aidan Walsh and Jennifer Lehane are both in the mix maybe a little bit more dependent on the draw but still very much in with a shout. Wouldn't entirely rule out Niamh Fay coming into the squad but its unlikely. 

McDonagh impressed here, qualifying is a tough ask but boxers worse than him managed to get a quota here. Mari would need a miracle.

 

Besides how many 3-2 split decisions in quota fights can we possibly lose? 3 at European games (counting the Cassidy Khyzniak 3-0), 2 here plus the Moorehouse Bobokulova fight which was effectively for the quota in that bracket. (I mean there was the McDonagh one as well but Lenzi would have been tough even if he had got that decision.)

I thought all three of the big ones at this tournament should have gone our way. The Cassidy Oralbay fight was genuinely 50-50 so ye know you'll lose some of them but still fuming about the Grainne Walsh and Daina Moorehouse decisions.

 

Like if you had told me before our nine European games quarter finals that we would only have six qualified after the first world qualifying tournament.

Look we can still get 10 and 9 should still be the baseline but man I feel like we should already have 9.

 

Anyway delighted for Jude Gallagher. Carlo Paalam getting injured against Andrey Bonilla and subsequently having to withdraw obviously helped but the form Gallagher is in. May well have beaten him anyway. His win against Mohamed Hussam uddin was worthy of a quota anyway. 

[dodge 1,027]

We need luck with draws for anyone other than Cassidy and the 66kg woman (whoever it is)

 

We need a little luck with them too but the others need a lot of luck. Moorehouse included 

[Ogreman 360]

1 hour ago, dodge said:

We need a little luck with them too but the others need a lot of luck. Moorehouse included

Who do you think would beat Moorehouse? 

 

She has beaten Thi Tham Nguyen  and Tetyana Kob . She looked a lot stronger than the likes of Alua Balkybekova , Natalia Kuczewska  and Pihla Kaivo Oja  at this tournament. Maybe if Olympic medallist Tsukimi Namiki  comes back into the Japan squad but even then I think I would back Moorehouse. Probability doesn't work like this but there is a bit of she has to get a good draw eventually right?

 

I would be more worried about Cassidy given there are only three quotas left and a just under 25% chance he draws Alfiorau  before the semis. Cassidy has improved a lot since he lost to Alfiorau in 2021 and got a lot closer to beating Oralbay than Alfiorau did so it certainly wouldn't be a gauranteed loss but I'm sure Cassidy is sick of having to beat world champions just to qualify. (I know Alfiorau is technically only a world silver medallist but still)

 

I think a lot of luck for the others is a bit strong. It would help but like there is no one left that Aidan Walsh or Jennifer Lehane can't beat. Walsh, I think would love a second go at Wanderson  but Wanderson would start as favourite. He has beaten Nishant Dev  before. Zakhareiev , Eashash and Schachidov  would all be close fights but I think Walsh would start as the favourite. He would definitely be favoured against Durkacz , Cuellar  or Richardson . Obviously ideally he would only have to beat 1 maybe 2 of these boxers but he certainly doesn't "need" a lot of luck with the draw. Plus there are five quotas so a little bit of extra scope draw wise. There will probably be one weird one like Kiwan  this time around but like probably at least 4 of the 9 boxers I mentioned will qualify and Walsh is at worst in the middle of that pack.

 

Lehane admittedly has it a bit tougher but like, for me at least she is better than Sirine Charaabi  and Thi Kim Anh Vo  who qualified here. Obviously don't really know exactly what happened against Romane Moulai  and if she can't beat Moulai or that kind of calibre of boxer again ye she probably isn't making the Olympics. Hsiao wen Huang  and Anastasia Kovalchuk  losing here doesn't help although Kovalchuk's recent form has been terrible so maybe that fight would be winnable. Zhaina Shekerbekova , Sandra Drabik , Johana Gomez , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg  (assuming Mongolia show up to the second qualifier), the aforementioned Moulai, Im Aeji  (who beat Hsiao Wen Huang and deserved to beat Charaabi) and maybe Scarlett Delgado  would all be tough. She beat Sara Cirkovic  which in hindsight was a really good win and obviously outclassed Niamh Fay at nationals who I think has beaten 4 boxers who are now qualified for the Olympics (in 3 different weightclasses) over the last couple of years. (If only Niamh Fay was in any way consistent ay.) Like she is capable of this calibre of win. Also the draw obviously could be very kind (Kovalchuk had a kind draw here and then bottled it losing to Islem Ferchichi . I have no idea why Ukraine did so poorly here. Yeah I know, there is a war on but like this was still a remarkably awful performance from Ukraine.) but when you have a situation where you have 8/9 fairly evenly matched boxers for 4 quotas you kind of know on balance you will have to beat 1 or 2 of said boxers. I think she is good enough but let's see.

 

Martin McDonagh obviously is still a long shot but he is rapidly improving. Took 2 really good wins here and had the closest fight of the tournament against a Tokyo Olympian. Obviously with the likes of Fernando Arzola  and Danabieke Bayikewuzi  still in the mix qualifying is very unlikely but Omar Shiha  managed to ride his luck a bit here and get a quota and I don't think he is much better than McDonagh. There are still probably 9 or so boxers definitely ahead of McDonagh so he would need to cause possibly multiple upsets but they happen especially at super heavyweight.

 

The optimistic way of looking at things for Sean Mari is well Juanma Lopez  came out of nowhere and through a weak bracket to qualify here. You need to be very optimistic to convince yourself that Mari still has a chance though. I just kind of hope he gets a straightforward draw in his first couple of fights. Losing his first fight at all 3 qualifying tournaments would be harsh on the man.

 

Just for completeness W66kg whether it is Walsh/ Broadhurst/ O'Rourke (I think O'Rourke is unlikely at this point. Feel like if she was going to get picked it would have been here. Hopefully she gets her chance in LA.). Getting Stefanie Von Berge  again wouldn't be ideal but us qualifying at W66kg has to be the safest pick of any of the 51 quotas available at the second world qualifer.

 

So for me disregarding injury risk, surprise selections or a robbery worse than the Grainne Walsh one today our chances look roughly like.

 

Boxer	Qualification chance
Daina Moorehouse	75%-85%
Jennifer Lehane	45%-55%
Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst	90%-95%
Sean Mari	1%-2%
Aidan Walsh	60%-70%
Kelyn Cassidy	75%-80%
Martin McDonagh	5%-10%
Cumalative expected qualifiers	3.51-3.97 boxers

So I am still at should get 3 (9 in total), hopefully get 4 (10), Not out of the question we could get 5 (11) but at this point that is unlikely. Then again, Unfortunately the risk of falling even of the IABA's original taget of 8 still exists when we really could (and should) have been going into the final qualifier mostly playing with house money.

Edited March 11, 2024 by Ogreman

[dodge 1,027]

There’s plenty of speculation in that post and I’m not going to argue point by point

 

I’ll just say specifically on Moorhouse, she’s had 9 fights against non Irish women in the last year and lost 4 of them. I’m not saying she has no chance, but she needs a very good draw.

 

I hope they all get OK draws and way more than I think get through 

 

FWIW I don’t think Aidan Walsh will go to Thailand. Just a bunch 

Edited March 12, 2024 by dodge

[Ogreman 360]

57 minutes ago, dodge said:

There’s plenty of speculation in that post and I’m not going to argue point by point

Why not? Let's have the conversation. Is that not what this thread is for?

 

57 minutes ago, dodge said:

I’ll just say specifically on Moorhouse, she’s had 9 fights against non Irish women in the last year and lost 4 of them. I’m not saying she has no chance, but she needs a very good draw.

She has 8 international fights and 3 losses in the past year. What's the fourth? All of the losses split decisions. She lost to 2022 European champion 52kg Tetyana Kob at Usti Nad Labem and then reversed that and beat her at European games. Then lost to World bronze medallist Wassila Lkhadiri in a very close fight at European games and then "loses" a fight here that for me she deserved to win against a boxer who just beat the World and Asian champions at Strandja. I guess your refering to the Nikolina Cacic fight at European under22s in 2022. Yeah that was a bad loss but I would make the observation that Nikolina Cacic is in fact an Olympian at 57kg and that Moorehouse is miles better now than she was a couple of years ago. She is young, young boxers improve.

 

Only counting international fights is also a weird way of counting this when Caitlin Fryers is a 2022 European silver medallist in this weightclass and Shannon Sweeney is also a European medallist. You don't stop being an Olympic calibre boxer just because you lose split decisions against some of the best boxers in the world.

 

Like Jude Gallagher had 3 international fights last year and lost all 3. You add in the context that one was against they were against the European champion (Javier Ibanez Diaz), the panam and 2021 world champion (Jahmal Harvey) and Strandja silver medallist (Orazbek Assylkulov)(lost to Ibanez Diaz and beat two other now qualified Olympians including the now World champion plus the reigning European champ at the time at the same tournament.) He qualified here and looks a decent outside bet for an Olympic medal. 

 

I just think this a very reductive way of looking at Moorehouse. Her results are consistent with a comfortably top 8-10 boxer in the world. I had her 10th when I ranked them in December. I would move her up a couple of spots now having beaten Thi Tham Nguyen. Boxrec currently has her 9th with one per nation. (10th with double Japan.)

 

Lastly there are 22 spots at W50kg (well 21 plus a universality spot). Even if you are a bit lower on Moorehouse you should still expect her to qualify. There really isn't a bad draw left other than maybe Namiki as I said.

 

57 minutes ago, dodge said:

FWIW I don’t think Aidan Walsh will go to Thailand. Just a bunch

He seemed happy enough here. Certainly possible but I think if he is in a good place mentally which he seems to be he will go.

Edited March 12, 2024 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 360]

https://www.irishnews.com/sport/amy-broadhurst-everything-ive-put-in-over-the-last-22-years-it-just-feels-like-its-been-blown-away-NSBELKXOX5GJ7KB4X2EBZMXPVE/

 

I don't understand this decision but best of the luck to Grainne Walsh I guess. 

 

Heartbreaking end to her amateur career for Amy Broadhurst. One of our best ever female boxers and yet we never managed to get her to an Olympics. I'd fully expect her to go on to win a world title as a pro but its not the same as an Olympic medal.

 

On a more optimistic note, looks like Wexford boxing's media propaganda campaign over Dean Walsh has failed miserably.

[Ogreman 360]

https://www.rowingireland.ie/2024-world-cup-i-team-announcement/

 

Well well well, This is an interesting one. The heavyweights normally train in Varese so I suspect us going to world cup 1 is just because it is slightly more conveniant and well slightly higher standard of competition than our typical preseason regatta in Piediluco which was last weekend. The absence of the lightweights probably confirms my suspicion that this is just an end of training camp regatta more than anything else but there are only two weeks between world cup 1 and Europeans and then just 3 weeks from there to FOQR so it is definitely possible that for our not yet qualified boats this will be the only time we see them before FOQR. 

 

So no obvious changes in priority boats so despite it seemingly being on the table of prioritising the womens four over the pair, Murtagh and Keogh must be showing medal potential or at least better medal chances than a hypothethical prioritised four. 

Emily Hegarty as expected comes back in to stroke the four having missed last season through injury but interestingly it is Sanita who isn't in the boat (Natalie Long, Eimear Lambe, Imogen Magner keep their places). Sanita is selected in the single which I suppose will be interesting and probably will get a fair bit of a hype but she very likely missed out on the four so I would probably set the initial expectations quite low and just being in contention to qualify from FOQR would be a big achievement. It probably is the end of Sanita's slim hopes of ending her career with an Olympic medal her career so clearly deserves but until we until we actually see her race we can dream that she chose to race the single and that this is last hurrah in the boat that has made her career. 

Anyway the likes of Aurelia Maxima Janzen , Virginia Dias Rivas  and (H)anna Prakat(s)en /  (Should qualify the Asian continental route but may have some competition from the two Uzbek lightweight doubles. They would presumably pick Prakaten if they all won at Asian continental qualifiers but they might gamble if they think Prakaten can qualify through FOQR or maybe she just doesn't win.) haven't yet qualified in the single so I think realistically based on this Sanita will probably end her career as the alternate for the Olympics assuming we qualify the four and get an alternate. (Pretty sure they tightened the number of alternate athletes you can take so its just the 4-/4x/8+ that gets them now.) I hope I'm wrong though. 

Alison Bergin and Zoe Hyde are very clearly the double but aren't racing here for some reason. Wouldn't be too worried about that, hopefully we see them at Europeans. Tara Hanlon, Aisling Hayes and Holly Davis miss out. You can race up to four boats per boatclass at world cup 1 so if they are in Varese it seems strange not to give them a hit out especially Holly Davis who is presumably targeting an under 23 world medal this year.

 

The mens double is unchanged so Daire Lynch keeps his spot alongside Philip Doyle and the Sinkovic's switching to the pair clearly hasn't scared us into prioritising the four and we have stuck with Nathan Timoney, Ross Corrigan pair. Wouldn't be that shocked if one or both of these boats end up skipping world cup 1 and just focusing on Europeans, the womens pair is in that category too.

I mentioned I thought it was possible we would make a decision between prioritising the four or the quad. I did really want a quad but we have gone with a four. Andrew Sheahan and Ronan Byrne! move from the quad into the four replacing Adam Murphy and Fionnan McQuillan Tolan. Sheahan has won under 23 medals in the four but as far as I know Byrne has never raced outside a sculling boat. John Kearney and Jack Dorney unsurprisingly keep their spots. I think the logic here is that going with a four then frees up Brian Colsh for the single but if the four narrowly misses out on qualifying, that theoretical quad may come back to haunt us. 

Brian Colsh in the single is an interesting move. He is built like a single sculler and obviously his form and I assume his power numbers have probably been great over the past couple of years but it didn't translate to good results in the single at 2022 worlds or last years Europeans albeit the entire squad didn't seem in great shape at last years Europeans. His under 23 world champion double partner Konan Pazzaia also gets a race here in the single which is either a good indication of his form or possibly a reason to not get too excited about Colsh's chances of making the Olympics. (I'm tempted to read into Pazzaia's name being above Colsh's in the selection announcement but I'll refrain from doing so) Assuming it is Colsh that races FOQR and we don't spontaneously make massive changes this is a but harsh on Pazzaia and Adam Murphy as they had both earned a shot at making the Olympics. Both should have multiple future Olympic cycles in them though. As for Fionnan McQuillan Tolan, as soon as we opted against sticking with trying to qualify both a four and a quad his chances were probably done although Natalie Long has proven that older athletes can force their way into the reckoning in a subsequent Olympic cycle having not really been that close before.

 

Normally with early season regattas like Piediluco we don't really need to be too worried about form and stuff but for the 2 fours and the at this point 3 singles they need to look good here and while full entries aren't out yet I would expect to see a fair few of their major competition for qualification at this regatta. Also for the M2x and both pairs the Olympics are over a month earlier than world champs typically are. Now the world cup season shifts forward accordingly but I would still hope to see them in good form here. 

From a qualifying perspective. One further mens boat and one more womens boat should be the minimum expectation for the quality in this squad. The womens four should qualify and I'd be fairly optimistic about the men's one. We will have a much better idea of our chances in the singles after this regatta. Colsh is talented enough but hasn't proven it in the single yet and Sanita Puspure, well lets wait and see. Qualifying singles at FOQR though is tough given how volatile the boatclass is, even if some of the competition is eligible for continental quotas.

Edited March 28, 2024 by Ogreman

[dodge 1,027]

Just on Tara Hanlon, she’s no longer part of the national squad, so you can rule her out of future combinations 

[duineeile 5]

Looks like Amy Broadhurst attempting to switch to Team GB for final qualifier to try qualify at 60kg, would this be allowed, is there not usually a sit-out period of a couple of years in most sports? Imagine Walsh doesn't qualify at 66kg and Broadhurst knocks Harrington out in Paris, would really be egg on the face for the Irish team 

[dodge 1,027]

Neil is usually on the ball 

 

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