Summer Olympic Games 2020 Biggest Gold Medal Favourites

[KEKEKE77 2]

On 2018-07-29 at 22:23, OlympicsFan said:

I would only consider Lyles (200 m), Van Niekerk, Barshim, Samba and maybe Toth/Shubenkov big favorites. I am a bit surprised about your picks in mens 100 m (What has Lyles shown to justify being called the top favorite there?), mens 800 m, mens pole vault (what about Lavillenie and Duplantis?), mens long jump (what about Echevarria?), mens triple jump (what about Taylor?), mens shot put (what about the american guys?), mens discus throw (what about Harting, Stahl and Dacres?), mens javelin throw (what about Röhler and Hofmann?), decathlon (what about Mayer?) and hammer throw (a lot of new talents from Hungary/Ukraine + Fajdek + Pronkin).

I agree there aint many cleare favorite except for Lyles 200m. Wan Niekerk has a challenge in Gardner, Norman, Makwala, Kerley and Akeem Bloomfield just to name some. With Barshims injury you can't be sure where he stands. And Samba will have challengers in Warholm, Benjamin and Mcmaster although i think he will win and Shubenkov has Mcleod and Levy as challengers. Toth is someone that my knowledge aint great on so ???  Lyles is probably gonna skip the 100 at the us trials so Coleman and Baker would probably be the main favorites. 

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 16 Stunden schrieb KEKEKE77:

Miller Uibo,Gao and Mclaughlin are pretty big favorites too. Obviously Schwanitz is a challenge but Gao can react lenghts no one else can at the moment. Mclaughlin is just so good i can't see her losing and Miller Uibo is on another level from the other 400 m women. Salwa Eid Nasser would be up there tho.

Miller-Uibo: Not for me, Nasser is 3 or 4 years younger and only about 0.1 slower.

Gao: Schwanitz already surpassed 20 m in her first year back and the american girls can do it too, Gao isnt a clear favorite.

McLaughlin: She has never done anything at a major competition, i want to wait how she does at the world championships next year first.

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor 16 Stunden schrieb KEKEKE77:

I agree there aint many cleare favorite except for Lyles 200m. Wan Niekerk has a challenge in Gardner, Norman, Makwala, Kerley and Akeem Bloomfield just to name some. With Barshims injury you can't be sure where he stands. And Samba will have challengers in Warholm, Benjamin and Mcmaster although i think he will win and Shubenkov has Mcleod and Levy as challengers. Toth is someone that my knowledge aint great on so ???  Lyles is probably gonna skip the 100 at the us trials so Coleman and Baker would probably be the main favorites. 

If Van Niekerk gets back to his Rio shape, noone can touch him, if he is barely able to run sub 44, many guys can beat him.

Barshim: If he gets back to his 2018 shape after the inury break i dont see anyone who could beat him, especially since i dont see Lysenko competing at the 2020 olympics.

Samba: Clear favorite for me, McMaster has run some good times at bigger meets, same is true for Warholm and they are constantly about 0.5 s slower than him. Benjamin has never done anything outside of Eugene, so i dont rate him this high currently.

Toth: Diniz could beat him or maybe a japanese guy.

Shubenkov: Seems untouchable this year, dont think anyone can beat him if he stays at that level, but of course thats rather unlikely and in addition to that we dont know whether he will be allowed to compete in Tokyo.

[KEKEKE77 2]

16 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

If Van Niekerk gets back to his Rio shape, noone can touch him, if he is barely able to run sub 44, many guys can beat him.

Barshim: If he gets back to his 2018 shape after the inury break i dont see anyone who could beat him, especially since i dont see Lysenko competing at the 2020 olympics.

Samba: Clear favorite for me, McMaster has run some good times at bigger meets, same is true for Warholm and they are constantly about 0.5 s slower than him. Benjamin has never done anything outside of Eugene, so i dont rate him this high currently.

Toth: Diniz could beat him or maybe a japanese guy.

Shubenkov: Seems untouchable this year, dont think anyone can beat him if he stays at that level, but of course thats rather unlikely and in addition to that we dont know whether he will be allowed to compete in Tokyo.

Steven Gardener has a sub 43.5 time in him so Van Niekerk can't feel that safe.

Barshim: Yeah if he comes back to form he aint getting beat on home soil.

Samba: I agree he is a clear favorite, probably will win and could very well beat that world record.

Shubenkov:Right now he's the favorite but if Mcleod comes back next year in great form he's the favorite.

[heywoodu 16,182]

2 minutes ago, KEKEKE77 said:

Steven Gardener has a sub 43.5 time in him so Van Niekerk can't feel that safe.

Barshim: Yeah if he comes back to form he aint getting beat on home soil.

Samba: I agree he is a clear favorite, probably will win and could very well beat that world record.

Shubenkov:Right now he's the favorite but if Mcleod comes back next year in great form he's the favorite.

The problem with any high jumper being called a 90-95% favourite is that this event is rather sensitive for mistakes, as we've already seen in the past. Of course he's the favourite right now, but it's still relatively easy to go wrong, especially with the big pressure of being basically the face of his home Olympics.

[KEKEKE77 2]

4 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

The problem with any high jumper being called a 90-95% favourite is that this event is rather sensitive for mistakes, as we've already seen in the past. Of course he's the favourite right now, but it's still relatively easy to go wrong, especially with the big pressure of being basically the face of his home Olympics.

Oh fuck Olympics is in Tokyo so Barshim isn't  on home soil sorry i thought about the doha world champs. But yeah high jump is a very sensitive for mistake, what's making me think Barshim is gonna win easily is if Lysenko isn't competing and Drouin aint back to form Barshim could win by clearing something like 2.33 which he normally does in his sleep.

[heywoodu 16,182]

1 minute ago, KEKEKE77 said:

Oh fuck Olympics is in Tokyo so Barshim isn't  on home soil sorry i thought about the doha world champs. But yeah high jump is a very sensitive for mistake, what's making me think Barshim is gonna win easily is if Lysenko isn't competing and Drouin aint back to form Barshim could win by clearing something like 2.33 which he normally does in his sleep.

Ah yeah, you confused me 

 

Still I think high jump is too fault-sensitive for anyone to really be that huge of a favourite. Just like the 110m hurdles for example. It's entirely different for stuff like the 800m freestyle. If one person is as dominant there as for example Katie Ledecky, even she of course has no 100% chance to win, but it is extremely unlikely to see anyone beat her if she doesn't get sick or injured, since there's much less of a mistake to be made during the actual competition.

Edited August 5, 2018 by heywoodu

[OlympicsFan 860]

vor einer Stunde schrieb KEKEKE77:

Steven Gardener has a sub 43.5 time in him so Van Niekerk can't feel that safe.

Barshim: Yeah if he comes back to form he aint getting beat on home soil.

Samba: I agree he is a clear favorite, probably will win and could very well beat that world record.

Shubenkov:Right now he's the favorite but if Mcleod comes back next year in great form he's the favorite.

Many have a sub 43.5 time in them, but Van Niekerk at his best is another 0.5 s faster which is a lot.

Barshim: What am i missing? Is Barshim now representing Japan?

Samba: We agree on him.

Subkenkov: Maybe i dont remember correctly, but i think McLeod has never been as steady sub 13 as Shubenkov is this season. McLeod has only 2 times been faster than 13.00 in his career outside of Jamaica, this season alone Shubenkov has been sub 13 3 times already outside of Russia. For me even peak McLeod wouldnt be the favorite and i dont think McLeod will get back into his best shape (i think he split with his coach recently, but i am not sure).

[rafalgorka 1,813]

Dnia 29.07.2018 o 22:25, OlympicsFan napisał:

I would only consider Horton, Paltrinieri (1500 free), Peaty and Kalisz (400 IM, maybe also 200 IM) clear favorites, but i would add Milak (200 fly).

You are right - After what we all saw yesterday - definitely Milak in 200 fly. Tut mir sehr leid, Chad... ;-)

 

But what about Paltrinieri now? It was Strange what we've Seen

And if not strange, than definitely not expected

 

Edited August 6, 2018 by rafalgorka

[rafalgorka 1,813]

Dnia 5.08.2018 o 09:57, heywoodu napisał:

Ah yeah, you confused me 

 

Still I think high jump is too fault-sensitive for anyone to really be that huge of a favourite. Just like the 110m hurdles for example. It's entirely different for stuff like the 800m freestyle. If one person is as dominant there as for example Katie Ledecky, even she of course has no 100% chance to win, but it is extremely unlikely to see anyone beat her if she doesn't get sick or injured, since there's much less of a mistake to be made during the actual competition.

Ok, you may be right, but that is exactly why 110 hurdles and HJ is very interesting for me, and 800 free is only interesting a bit.... and as many many said before - why didn't thay add 50 back, 50 fly and 50 breast? Would be much better to watch than additonal 800 and 1500

Let's put the thread - PREDICTION OF THE EVENTS WITH THE CLOSEST CONTESTS AT THE TOKYO 2020 OLYMPICS - it can be fun :-))))))

Edited August 6, 2018 by rafalgorka