Fencing Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Faramir 376]

  On 3/16/2024 at 2:24 PM, Federer91 said:

Based on the draw, what needs to happen for Bulgaria to get a team quota?

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1) Bulgaria winning gold tomorrow and Italy ending 6th or worse

 

OR

 

2) USA not reaching the final and Algeria falling out of the top16 of the ranking (most realistic option: Hong Kong 14th or better and Mexico 16th or better) and Bulgaria staying ahead of Spain and Azerbaijan.

[avlar 372]

  On 3/16/2024 at 2:24 PM, Federer91 said:

Based on the draw, what needs to happen for Bulgaria to get a team quota?

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There are several scenarious. 

 

Two important matches are:

 

 - 

 - 

 

With both  and  in top 16 the chances will almost desappear (only 1st place will help under certain circumstances).

[konig 1,510]

  On 3/16/2024 at 2:06 PM, phelps said:

but that's the men's ranking, we were talking of the women's 

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Diferent Di Tella........

[phelps 7,847]

  On 3/16/2024 at 2:58 PM, konig said:

Diferent Di Tella........

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different weapon, too...as Isabel Di Tella is a Epee specialist  

[phelps 7,847]

  On 3/16/2024 at 2:57 PM, avlar said:

There are several scenarious. 

 

Two important matches are:

 

 - 

 - 

 

With both  and  in top 16 the chances will almost desappear (only 1st place will help under certain circumstances).

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I think  have vey little chance to be in the top 14, unless  make them a good gift in the consolation bracket (and always if they end up facing  in the 13th/16th place draw, which is all but certain)

 

but I have the good feeling that  would eventually beat  and seal the deal for both themselves and  (the Americans are already qualified, they shouldn't bother too much if they end up in 4th or 5th place in the OQR...at least, I hope so)

Edited March 16, 2024 by phelps

[avlar 372]

  On 3/16/2024 at 8:06 PM, phelps said:

I think  have vey little chance to be in the top 14, unless  make them a good gift in the consolation bracket (and always if they end up facing  in the 13th/16th place draw, which is all but certain)

 

but I have the good feeling that  would eventually beat  and seal the deal for both themselves and  (the Americans are already qualified, they shouldn't bother too much if they end up in 4th or 5th place in the OQR...at least, I hope so)

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I think so too. Kharlan lost early today. So she will be fresh enough for tomorrow battles. 

[Illya 518]

So tomorrow is a final competition for indivdual OR in foil, so let's take a look on a main competiton for quotas. 

 

In women's section, as I mentioned earlier, is 11 fencers to take second European quota (the first is granted to Anna Sauer and congrats to her fans maybe she can succed at the OG and win some medal). 

 

 Flora Pasztor, Kata Kondricz, Dora Lupkovics, Aida Mohamed

 Olivia Wohlgemuth, Freya Cenker

 Malina Calugareanu, Emilia Corbu

 Carolina Stutchbury 

 Alina Poloziuk

 Maria Teresa Diaz

 

Some draws segments for them 

 

Flora Pasztor - Budenko , Volpi 

Carolina Stutchbury - Petrova , Guo 

Malina Calugareanu - Harvey , Kondricz 

Alina Poloziuk - Wohlgemuth , Walczyk-Klimaszyk 

Emilia Corbu - Chen , Catarzi 

Freya Cenker - Sauer , Blaze 

Kata Kondicz - Cheung , Harvey/Calugareanu 

Dora Lupkovics - Batini , Devore 

Aida Mohamed - Cristino , Scruggs 

Maria Teresia Diaz - Walczyk-Klimaszyk , Poloziuk/Wohlgemuth

Olivia Wohlgemuth - Poloziuk , Walczyk-Klimaszyk 

 

Based on this, after R1 we will see at least 1 fencer out, after R2 - at least 2 more, after R3 hunt for the quota can be over if Stutchbury can qualify there and her biggest rivals like Pasztor and Calugareanu are out. Obviously, I will pray for our Ukrainian girl Alina, who actually won a bronze at the Grand Prix, beating Lee Kiefer, but it didn't count towards olympic ranking unfortunately. 

 

At the men's section it will be fight for all of two spots - Daniel Dosa , Carlos Llavador  and Alexander Choupenitch  will figure out who is gonna be at the final qual.tournament. The race is tight, so let's see also first two rounds for them 

 

Daniel Dosa - Lechner , Spoljar 

Carlos Llavador - Rajski , Xu 

Alexander Choupenitch - Cheng , Garozzo 

 

Not a good draw for Choupenitch at all, not an easy start for Llavador and really easy draw for Dosa. Considering that, if Dosa/Llavador/Choupenitch can make it through first 2 rounds, they will receive 12 points. Looking on the 5th worst result for them, Dosa and Choupenitch will increasy their total by 8 points (4 points is the worst result for them), while Llavador increase by only 4 points. According to that, Dosa is probably safe, and Choupenitch need to lose to the same round as Llavador - in that case Czech will get the quota. 

Edited March 16, 2024 by Illya

[copravolley 325]

  On 3/16/2024 at 8:44 PM, avlar said:

I think so too. Kharlan lost early today. So she will be fresh enough for tomorrow battles. 

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All it takes is for France to not give up and advance to the final. France is in the same half as the USA. Then Ukraine and Italy go to Paris. France is the best team and if they approach tomorrow's fights with 100%, they are favorites to advance to the final. Although, of course, it would be better for Ukraine to win 1/4 against the USA to be 100% sure. The Italians can even lose in the 1/8 against Greece and just watch what happens with the other teams. Btw, Kharlan has been training in Italy for several years - since she was in relationship with Luigi Samele. This was before Covid. Only after the war was started did the rest of the Ukrainian team join it and train together in Italy.

Edited March 16, 2024 by copravolley

[copravolley 325]

The Italian women's saber team has a balanced team but unfortunately they are missing one big individual, like Kharlan, or in the past Velikaja or Zagunis. This means that Italian women never win medals in big events. If the Italians don`t advance as a team, it is 99% certain that none of them will qualify ind. through the ranking.

Edited March 16, 2024 by copravolley

[Josh 11,107]

@phelps what would need to happen for  to qualify in women’s team epee?