I had really expected Tes Schouten to qualify for the finals this time, after a preseason with constant improvement of her PBs. Let's hope she makes it in the 200m at least.
The 200 breast is much less competitive, so she should make it unless she drowns.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Meanwhile a big announcement: World Aquatics officially moves its headquarters from Lausanne to Budapest. So now whenever I am angry at a stupid decision I can just easily visit them.
Maybe now we won't have to wait so long for another world championship in Budapest ... only having them there every 4 years isn't enough ...
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Insane times in the men's 800m freestyle heats. You needed a 7:45.80 to qualify for the final.
Wellbrock is out!
Also Sam Short with a 7:40 prelims swim. Finke is going to have his hands full.
Hopefully another proof that history keeps repeating itself. In 2019 he won gold in the 10 km open water race (while another german guy won bronze), then he missed the 800 free final and then he went on to win 1500 free gold ... hopefully it will be the same this time.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Paltrinieri much closer than in the 10 km race. Could be seen as an encouraging sign. Really weird that Klemet (and Romanchuk) were so far off. Klemet was clearly better than the Italians in the 10 km race and is also clearly better over 400 m, but somehow he couldn’t be close to them in the 5 km race. Beck has proven once again that she doesn’t need tricks to dominate. At the moment she is clearly the best in the world apart from maybe Grimes.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
I agree. There's always been some negativity towards swimming in that it has too many events and the overlap of athletes between two events is high. If open water turns into just another event for long distance swimming event with the same athletes competing I can see a push for having it dropped from the Olympics.
Maybe that is the goal ...
IAA ... world athletics should maybe take notes (if they want to get rid of race walking)
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
For some reason I couldn't find an official list of Hungarian swimmers per event, so I had to make one for myself. We got 9 athletes who already have at least one OQT (+1 who's missing, Milák), the bold font indicates the already obtained OQTs. Hopefully there will be a few more OQTs here, Kapás for example should finally qualify to Paris.
Yeah, our women's team with only two Paris qualifications so far... Hopefully we will look better after these Worlds.
I think the most likey candidates are Nemeth (100 free), Telegdy (200 back), Zombori (400 IM), Padar (200/400 free), Fabian (1500 free), Mihalyvari-Farkas (400 IM/1500 free), Burian (200 back), Molnar (200 back), Kapas (200 fly, maybe 400/800 free), Sebestyen (200 IM), Jackl (400 IM) and maybe Magda (100 free). In the end you should have at least 16 athletes with an OQT.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Yeah, the Hungarian preview for the men's 10k pretty much says that Rasovszky and Betlehem can just focus on the racing before Paris, they are already secured thanks to their easy qualification in 1500m. The open water qualification will be way less stressful for those who compete in the pool.
On the one hand that is good to hear, on the other hand it kind of kills the sport of open water swimming. The easier it gets to switch/transition, the more "open water specialists" will disappear. Open water swimming might turn into another pure distance swimming event.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
well, with the new rules the advantage is really low, as all the others just need a not so tough OQT in the 1500m (which they can swim in short time, no need to wait until Doha 2024)
great tactics by Beck, unfortunately for her the Paris race course will not allow any magic (it's basically a narrow channel, it's like swimming in a very long pool rather than true open water)
I agree on Grimes being the favourite in Paris (but never underestimate the fast finishers like Cunha and Van Rouwendal on that kind of course)
p.s. amazing race in general, but once again poor tv direction...I know it's not easy to shoot an event like this, but sometimes I have the feeling that they miss the basics of the job
I don't think that Beck needs any magic. She only narrowly missed gold last year and won 2 of the 3 world cups this year. She is clearly the best in the world right now if we exclude Grimes. If Beck is at 100 %, then noone except Grimes and maybe Kirpichnikova should beat her. The question is whether other athletes will switch from the 1500 m. Athletes like Quadarella, Pallister, Gose, Johnson or one of the fast american girls (Weinstein/Cox?) could see this as their only chance to win a gold medal.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
First gold for Germany in the women's 10 km since 2001 when this event was contested for the first time ... in Fukuoka of all places. Also might be interesting to know that Beck trains in the same group as Paltrinieri ... maybe a good sign for him.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Expected gold for Beck with an amazing strategy. Finishing top 3 is a huge (and in my opinion unfair) advantage. The top 3 can now already prepare for Paris. Personally i am happy that no nation won more than one quota. At times the race was very hard to follow (why does everyone have to wear a white cap ...), but the finish was very exciting. I think next year Grimes will be smarter and should be the one to beat in Paris.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
the problem is that any quota place obtained in the pool doesn't count at all for the Olympic 10km race
you have to earn your spot in the specific OQR for this discipline (Fukuoka and Doha, basically)
in the women's 10km, however, I think there are only a few girls who already have a OQT in the pool: for sure, Katie Grimes, Anastasiia Kirpichnikova; then I'm not sure about Sharon Van Rouwendal, Leonie Beck.
I think it's all.
among the men, both and both swimmers and stop.
I don't think the guys have a good 1500m/800m time (maybe Logan Fontaine, but it's improbable) and both our guys Paltrinieri and Acerenza this year haven't swam the OQT yet 'cause they're focusing on this race to earn the quota place (our technical director said without any problem that our target is getting all 4 quotas here in Fukuoka, without having to participate to the next world champs in Doha with the Olympians), but I'm pretty sure that they will get an OQT in the pool the first time they really swim that races seriously (and Paltrinieri is going to swim the 800m and 1500m in the pool at this world champ, so, it's just a matter of time)
p.s. I'm surprised have not chosen Marc Antoine Olivier for the 10km race (but it looks it's just a disciplinary choice, rather than technical)
Are you sure that Paltrinieri doesn't have the OQT? I think he swam 14:49 at the italian championships. Neither Van Rouwendaal nor Beck have the OQT and i am not really sure if they will try. I don't see either of them competing in the pool next year. On the women's side Jungblut and Tadeucchi missed the OQT by less than a second.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Out of these I only expected significantly more from Késely and maybe Zombori. Kesély seemed like one of those very level-headed, determined athletes who will produce great senior results, I didn't expect to see her recent struggles at all.
The jury is still out on Mihályvári, I am not sure where that career is going, maybe she doesn't have what it takes to become competitive on the senior level at the Worlds and Olympics. Just like how Szilágyi wasn't up it, which I saw coming from a mile away, she always gave the impression of being a mess as a person, she never had the mentality or the supportive background of an Olympic medalist/champion.
Hungarian swimming has a very unwelcoming atmosphere around it. It's not as bad as American women's gymnastics, but you get the sense that if someone doesn't have the deep inner drive to achieve greatness, they can quickly find themselves in a bad place. Like how even Milák did despite all the success. They are burning out athletes, more so than in any other sport in Hungary and that will result in "causalities". But if someone doesn't like the Hungarian way, they can always train elsewhere, just like Hosszú or Kós did. And at the very least Hungarian swimming is producing results (for now), so it does seem like the system works, it's just not for everyone. Hungarian women's handball for example has a much, MUCH lower rate of turning youth/junior success into senior world class talent. Hungarian swimming is still a long way from to be accused of having bad talent management, it won't happen until we flop in the next few Worlds and in Paris, but Milák can always "save the day" IF he comes back.
I don't think that i ever said the Hungary has a bad "conversion rate". I don't think that many other countries are doing a better job. I just didn't agree with your take that basically none of your top talents flop. What you did is basically define "top talent" as talents that became successful at senior level and of course with a definition like that no top talent ever flops. If they don't do anything at senior level, you can just say that they weren't top talents. Mihalyvari-Farkas (and Kesely) could still do good things at senior level. Someone like Steenbergen was an amazing talent before disappearing for 3 or 4 years just to come back stronger than before out of nowhere. I also think that Szilagyi is a special case and you can't blame her, considering all the "trouble" she had with her father. Personally i don't like it when someone who tries to improve things (with positive criticism) just gets told that he/she can go elsewhere if he/she doesn't like the status quo. With an approach like that you stop yourself from improving. I think the hungarian federation should also ask themselves if they can (still) allow to lose some of their best athletes relatively early. Gyurta was pretty much cooked at 25 and we will see what happens with Milak. With a bit less pressure/more cooperation they might actually be able to "get more medals out of their athletes". In addition to that it might not be a good sign when two of your best athletes (Hosszu and Kos) feel the need to "flee" to another country ... (Germany has the same problem with athletes like Artem Selin, Rafael Miroslaw or Anna Elendt)
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
I think we haven't really had a true top tier talent fade out. I mean, the swimmers you mentioned never appeared to be as promising as the likes of Milák, Hosszú, Gyurta. We might have a shitty talent management among the middle-tier swimmers, but I feel like Dávid Verrasztó is the only Hungarian swimmer who never reached his full potential in terms of Olympic medals. Gyurta, Hosszú and Milák were Olympic champion level talents and they all got their gold medals. Kapás and Kenderesi were Olympic medal level talents and they won their bronze medal.
Right now we only got Kós who appear to be talented enough to be included among those names. If he won't win an Olympic medal in Paris or LA, I will be slightly disappointed. There's also Késely, who should have become the next Boglárka Kapás, that's an Olympic medal chance thrown out of the window, unless she turns her career around like Gyurta (post-Beijing) and Hosszú (post-London) did. I don't expect much from the rest (with maybe the exception of Padar? I guess we will see in the next few years if she can improve).
I think you have an interesting definition of "top talent". Szilagyi won gold at the 2014 youth olympics as a 17 year old with 2:06.5, which was a junior world record if i remember correctly. You know who finished 1.5 seconds behind her in silver position? Zhang Yufei ...
Mihalyvari-Farkas also won gold at the 2022 european championships in the 400 IM as an 18 year old. Kesely won 2 silver medals and a bronze at the 2018 european championships as a 16 year old. Gabor Zombori won gold at the 2019 junior world championships in the 400 free as a 16 year old with a time of 3:46.0.
Not sure what Hosszu did as a junior that was (much) more impressive?
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Késely might be the biggest Hungarian disappointment in swimming since the Liliána Szilágyi debacle. COVID has been the explanation, that she lost her career momentum because of the COVID break.
That might be the explanation, although she already was going backwards in the 200 free way before the pandemic. Maybe she focused too much on distance and lost her speed. It looks as if she might have "rediscovered" some of her speed recently, so there might very well still be hope for her. Her progression in the 200/400/800/1500 free:
200 free:
2016: 1:57.96
2017: 1:57.10
2018: 1:57.88
2019: 1:58.14
---
2020: 2:00.13
2021: 2:00.15
2022: 1:58.78
400 free:
2016: 4:08.10
2017: 4:05.75
2018: 4:03.57
2019: 4:01.31
---
2020: 4:09.05
2021: 4:05.35
2022: 4:07.74
800 free:
2016: 8:34.37
2017: 8:30.62
2018: 8:22.01
2019: 8:24.25
---
2020: 8:37.45
2021: 8:26.20
2022: 8:35.74
1500 free:
2016: 16:45.15
2017: 16:11.25
2018: 16:03.22
2019: 15:54.48
---
2020: 16:34.43
2021: 15:59.80
2022: 16:22.89
I remember that we had a similar discussion some years ago about Mihalyvari-Farkas, where i asked whether she would keep progressing or end up like many (female) hungarian talents before her. Back then you were optimistic and didn't agree that (too) many hungarian talents fade out too quickly. Sadly it looks as if Mihalyvari-Farkas might be heading in the same direction, but maybe she will surprise us/me at worlds. Also not sure how optimistic we can/should be about the future of other talents like Veres, Fabian, Gyurinovics, Nyiradi, Molnar, Ugrai, Flück, Komoroczy, Hathazi, Abraham, Jackl and Padar? Hopefully att least Padar and Jackl will become world class. On the men's side Kovats, Magda and Betlehem look promising.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Apparently the Hungarian team is expecting at least one medal in the pool, maybe up to four medals.
Personally I am expecting 0 medals for Hungary, we are hitting rock bottom in Japan.
4 medals seems like an insane expectation, 1 might be possible. More interesting question would be: How many top 8 finishes do you expect (individual olympic events only)?
Maybe Kapas (200 fly)
Maybe Mihalyvari-Farkas (400 IM + maybe 1500 free)
Maybe Szabo (50 free)
Maybe Nemeth (100 free)
Kos (200 back + maybe 200 IM)
Maybe Kovacs (200 back)
Maybe Hollo (400 IM)
Maybe Marton (200 fly)
I wouldn't be shocked if you wouldn't have a single top 8 finish on the women's side. I think 6 top 8 finishes would already be a good result for Hungary based on the entry lists. The US and Australia are probably the only nations that could lose athletes like Milak, Cseh and Hosszu and still have multiple medal contenders. Of course it doesn't help that many of your promising talents haven't progressed as expected (Kesely, Szilagyi, Mihalyvari-Farkas, Zombori).
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
With Ruck's form unknown, and Pickrem, Oleksiak, and Smith all choosing to skip, doesn't look like any Canadian relays will be medaling (And qualifying for Paris 2024) in Fukuoka. That being said, qualifying for the final here should secure Paris 2024 qualification, which seems possible for W 4X100 FR, W 4X200 FR, W 4x100M, MX 4X100M, and M 4x100FR relays (Maybe M 4x100M with Dergousoff, Liendo, Kharun, and Acevado too).
News on McIntosh, she's expected to race in four individual events, and two relays. If I had to guess, I'm thinking she drops the 200IM as the SF conflicts with the 400FR and 4x100FR finals.
Here's what I'm thinking for her schedule:
Day 1 (July 23)
Morning Session
W 400FR - H
W 4x100FR - H
Evening Session
W 400FR - F
W 4x100FR - F
Day 3 (July 25)
Morning Session
W 200FR - H
Evening Session
W 200FR - SF
Day 4 (July 26)
Morning Session
W 200FL - H
Evening Session
W 200FR - F
W 200FL - SF
Day 5 (July 27)
Morning Session
W 4x200FR - H
Evening Session
W 200FL - F
W 4x200FR - F
Day 8 (July 30)
Morning Session
W 400IM - H
Evening Session
W 400IM - F
In a vacuum she should definitely swim the 400 free and the 400 IM. She is the clear favorite in both. I think of the remaining 3 events (200 free, 200 fly, 200 IM), the 200 IM is the one where she has the worst chance of winning a medal, but the best chance of winning gold, while the 200 fly is the one where she probably has the worst chance of winning gold. It sounds crazy to drop an event where she is the world leader (while keeping 2 events (200 free and 200 fly) where she isn't the world leader), but it probably is the smart decision. Not sure how much influence the relays should have on her decision. Don't really see the point of her swimming any relays.
In the men's 4 x 100 m free relay there are at least 7 stronger nations, maybe Canada can upset Japan for the 8th spot. In the men's 4 x 100 m medley there are also at least 7 stronger nations and i think even Germany is better on paper.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Also interesting to „finally“ see an American teen phenom in the longer freestyle events on the men’s side. Recently the track record of teen phenoms in those events hasn’t been great (Grgic, Galossi). I guess as a Canadian you are probably hoping for a Mijatovic vs. Kim rivalry?
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
compared to Australia, top 4 swimming 3.32.10 vs top 4 swimming 3.30.73 (simple addition of the individual times, no "fly start compensation")
men's 100m Free
1. Jack Alexy 47.93
2. Chris Guiliano 47.98
3. Matt King 47.99
4. Destin Lasco 48.00
compared to Australia, top 4 swimming 3.11.90 vs top 4 swimming 3.12.31 (simple addition of the individual times, no "fly start compensation")
Did you only look at the times in the final (for both Australia and the US)? I think there were some faster times in prelims.
Also:
a) O’Callaghan might not compete at worlds.
b) I think the US relays might look „a bit“ different at worlds. I expect at least Ryan Held and Torri Huske to swim in the final.
c) Too bad that we didn’t get to see Heilman at 100 % in the 100 free (he swam the 200 fly earlier in the same session).
d) Too bad that teen phenom Kaii Winkler (who sadly decided against representing Germany internationally) got injured shortly before trials. He might have had a shot at making the team.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Btw, I think it's safe to say that this will be the first World Championships since 2007 where won't win any swimming gold medals. We might actually not win any medals in the pool without Milák. This might become a very depressing time for Hungarian swimming, our only hope is Hubert Kós.
Had to happen at some point. Hungary producing one star after an other (Egerszegi, Cseh, Gyurta, Hosszu, Kapas, Milak) was very impressive while it lasted. Kos could win gold or maybe even miss the final. The men’s 200 back seems very open this year (Especially looking at the absence of the Russians, Greenbank and Edwards-Smith) and easily looks like the weakest event on the men’s side. There are a lot of guys who could take gold if they step up at the right time. I thought that Ndoye-Brouard would do it, but he has been underwhelming this year so far. Kos training under Bowman probably means that you have to trust him as much as anybody to step up at worlds. Going forward I am not sure where Hungary will find new medal contenders. Their biggest talents seem to be on the women’s side (Padar, Mihalyvari-Farkas, Jackl), but unfortunately for them the level on the women’s side is very strong and not many European women are currently able to fight for medals.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
I think experience prevails and McKeon wins the 100 FR and Titmus the 200 and 400. The rest about the same, the big if is Smith for me, not sure she will score her best when it matters. I trust Mckeown and McIntosh more tbh.
Really weird comment.
1) There is no reason to consider Titmus the favorite in the 400 free.
2) You say that you trust McIntosh more than Smith but not enough to beat Titmus in the 400 free (despite swimming a world record this season and being much younger)? In 2021 and 2022 McIntosh improved by more than 2 seconds from trials to worlds/Olympics. I would almost be shocked if she wouldn’t go 3:54 at worlds.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
I don't know about you guys but I think Australians are pretty good at this swimming thing
Still rather disappointing that they only have one male medal contender in non-freestyle events (ZSC in the 200 breast). No medal contenders in men’s 100 breast, men’s 100/200 back, men’s 100/200 fly and men’s 200/400 IM. The US, GB, Italy, China and France might all win at least as many medals as them on the men’s side. They might walk away without a single gold medal on the men’s side (although McEvoy in the 50 free, Chalmers in the 100 free, Short in the 400/800 free and ZSC in the 200 breast could all win gold).
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Wellbrock is out! 
Sam Short with a 7:40 prelims swim. 
Finke is going to have his hands full.
Anastasiia Kirpichnikova; then I'm not sure about 
Sharon Van Rouwendal, 
and both 
Paltrinieri and
Posted
The 200 breast is much less competitive, so she should make it unless she drowns.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
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