With the provisos that have been made and bearing in mind that some of these crews could qualify in events that have continental qualifiers these were the next best crews at the WC.
There are two spots available in each event at the final qualifier. Both single sculls events are complicated by the presence of Belarusian scullers so I've included those who might benefit from their absence should that be the case.
MSS -Belarus/Bulgaria/Italy/Serbia
MDS- Moldova/USA
MLDS - Belgium/New Zealand
MQS - USA/Norway
MP - Denmark/Lithuania
MF - Switzerland/Italy
ME - USA/Italy
WSS - Belarus/Switzerland/Spain
WDS - South Africa/Great Britain
WLDS - Poland/Italy
WQS - Ukraine/Italy
WP - Italy/New Zealand
WF - Dennark/Ireland
WE - Italy/China
As you can see Italy have a lot of potential upside with seven crews (31 quotas) in with a realistic chance of qualification if they choose to contest all the events.
The difficulty is assessing the make up of the lineups in each event and the makeup of the crews. Just as an example I can see GB contesting both the men's and women's double sculls but not bothering to enter more than at most one of the other three events they haven't yet qualified in. In the case of the men's double sculls they will have a much stronger crew than in Belgrade and will have a real chance of qualifying.
This applies to many of the stronger countries so they may well challenge in boats against which their name doesn't appear on my list.
My only cast iron tips are that the USA will qualify in the men's eight and Ireland in the women's coxless four. Other than that my money is staying in my wallet! 😎
New Zealand , who have strict select guidelines did not send anyone to the FQR for 2020. Other countries that may do similar are Netherlands, Canada, South Africa.
The French LW2X have way more than a close to zero chance. Finishing third in their heat was surprising but I'm still picking them to make the final and if they don't I would probably pick them to win the B final. They are still likely qualifiers.
The M4- should qualify. Not a gaurantee but they are likely qualifiers here. On paper they are significantly better than the Italian M4-.
There are no restrictions on how many boats you can qualify at the Final Olympic qualifying regatta. Only the continental ones
If that’s the case regarding France which two of USA, Canada or New Zealand don’t qualify so that does?
I don't plan to waste my time on that. But yeah even with the non Eueopean explaination given it's still way below par sport.
Maybe cricket can call itself to be more competitive globally even if you remove expat countries from the list.
Should Hockey have been thrown out of the Olympics when India won it every 4 years. How about Diving? 7 out of 8 Gold for China or Table Tennis? 4 out of 5 Golds for China?
Eights is by far the least diverse Olympic event on the program. Like would any event that struggles to field double digit entrants ever be considered for the Olympics?
With that said, the Eights is one of the events I look forward to the most so it will be a very sad day when the IOC finally axes the event.
And the Eights come from mainly English Speaking countries..Canada,US,GB,NZ and Aus. Add Germany, Romania and Netherlands and thats pretty much it. If they are the Blue Riband of rowing then why are so few countries competing?
Always feel sorry for Ireland in the boxing. They put so much of their limited money & effort into it & always end up getting ripped off by the central Asian cartels which dominate the sport.
In fairness it was just hard luck at the draw. I don’t think they would rig the draw.
Bit of a disaster for Byrne and Doyle in the double sculls for Ireland. They expect to make the final and challenge for medals
Just watched the race there (thank you discovery plus) and their start was awful and they never really got going at all.
Hopefully just a flat day. Interesting that the heats and repechages only eliminate one boat
A bad 24 hours for us. Brutal boxing draw, Shane Ryan injured and the Double Sculls disaster. Can’t seem how they can retrieve this. One of best medal contenders in trouble already. They skipped the press conference too which is not a good sign.
members of quadruple sculls squad Nikita Morgachov and Pavel Sorin tested positive for Meldonium during the June training camp. Not sure what that means for Russia's crew. Probably just replace both member by someone else?
I am shocked I tell you Shocked. After coming from nowhere to qualify 4 boats at the final Regatta.?
I think Rowing will be their second sport this edition - they are VERY strong in boxing, especially considering women's side, stronger perhaps even than usual
I can see us winning three medals in Rowing but cannot see any more than 3 in Boxing. All depends on the draw in boxing.
A relief that Ntouskos qualified, and I am confident Kyridou will qualify next month as well. Sad for our LW2X though, they really needed this. Will be hard to see them qualify now. Does anyone know what is happening with the reallocated quota from the Americas event in LW2X?
There will be an extra spot available at the final qualifier in LW2X.
Yes, and they were so unlucky with the wind in the B final as they should have been redrawn into lane 5/6 along with China.
However, that is such a surprise anyway as that team is most of the team that just won a medal at U23 level at the world championships this year and they were sent here mainly for experience.
But the rowing experts on our TV were thinking it could be a blessing as this will make our competition for places in the women’s pair even stronger. Our women's pair placed 8th here and qualified to Tokyo.
I am sure the W4 will be attempting qualification at the final regatta. I think they have a great chance too.
does?
Borch eliminated in the single 
Unexpected. And no Olympic Quota for Norway.
members of quadruple sculls squad Nikita Morgachov and Pavel Sorin tested positive for Meldonium during the June training camp. Not sure what that means for Russia's crew. Probably just replace both member by someone else?
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New Zealand , who have strict select guidelines did not send anyone to the FQR for 2020. Other countries that may do similar are Netherlands, Canada, South Africa.
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