Overview

Our strength in depth in rowing as opposed to sculls in the Olympics boats looks set to continue with five golds. Hopefully the top U23s can be integrated into the squad as seamlessly as possible once they know which members of the team in Paris plan to continue onto LA.

A very good performance! Interesting that there are no Dutch medals on the list and conversely a strong performance by Germany.

Turned out to be more drama than anyone would like, but held on for the win!

Second junior world gold for Cat Ferguson today, an absolute barnstormer of a cyclist, and second possibly only to Zoe Backstedt in the excitement raising for the sport in GB

WOW Final day of the U23 part of the world championship and that was a pretty impressive show Women’s Four Final GOLD! Men’s Four Final GOLD! Men’s Quad Final 6th Men’s Eight Final GOLD Women’s Eight Final GOLD! We had 10 GB crews, 7 Made Finals, 5 of which won gold. Both eight crews and four's dominated. The final U23 Medal table looks like 5 0 1 4 1 3 2 1 1 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 3 0 1 2 1

Things going well in the Tour de l'Avenir. Joe Blackmore won Stage 4, got into Yellow. Lost Yellow on Stage 5, but got it back today by a big margin. Final stage tomorrow - big climbs, no race radio & teams not really strong enough to dictate tactics, so worth watching.

Overall Predictions Gold Medals Sport Lower total Predicted total Upper total Archery 0 0 3 Athletics 5 10 20 Badminton 0 1 3 Boccia 0 2 4 Road Cycling 4 7 10 Track Cycling 5 6 11 Equestrian 0 2 5 Judo 0 1 3 Canoe Sprint 3 4 6 Triathlon 1 1 3 Powerlifting 0 0 0 Rowing 1 2 3 Shooting 0 0 0 Swimming 11 15 25 Table Tennis 0 1 8 Taekwondo 0 1 3 Basketball 0 1 1 Rugby 0 0 1 Fencing 0 0 6 Tennis 1 1 2 TOTAL 31 55 117 For context, the predicted result would be up 14 golds on Tokyo but down 9 on Rio, and would almost guarantee second on the medal table behind China. For context of how strong China is, they won 96 golds in Tokyo, so GB would need 82% hit rate on gold chances to beat them. Total Medals Sport Lower Total Predicted Total Upper Total Archery 0 2 4 Athletics 12 30 40 Badminton 0 3 5 Boccia 0 3 6 Road Cycling 5 12 20 Track Cycling 7 14 19 Equestrian 0 5 9 Judo 0 3 3 Canoeing 6 8 9 Triathlon 1 4 6 Powerlifting 0 1 2 Rowing 3 4 4 Shooting 0 0 3 Swimming 20 35 43 Table Tennis 0 5 13 Taekwondo 0 3 3 Basketball 0 1 2 Rugby 0 0 1 Fencing 0 2 10 Tennis 1 2 4 Total 55 137 206 From my predictions, it looks like GB will easily meet their medal target and potentially beat it. This result would be 13 more medals than Tokyo but 10 less than Rio, following the same trend as the gold medals. There is a chance that GB will beat their Rio results but it will likely depend on the fine margins of sport.

Wheelchair Tennis 8 athletes in 6 events Men's Singles - Ben Bartram - WR 27 - Alfie Hewett - WR 1 - Gordon Reid - WR 5 - Dahnon Ward - WR 26 Men's Doubles - Ben Bartam/Dahnon Ward - WR 10 - Alfie Hewett/Gordon Reid - WR 1 Women's Singles - Annie Breakwell - WR 46 - Lucy Shuker - WR 15 Women's Doubles - Lucy Shuker/Annie Breakwell - WR 20 Men's Quad Singles - Andy Lapthorne - WR 3 - Greg Slade - WR 9 Men's Quad Doubles - Andy Lapthorne/Greg Slade - WR 3 Hewett and Reid are 5 times defending French open champions so are in a good position to win gold. The mens singles is more open but Hewett should challenge, with Japanese Oda being the favourite. In the quad events, GB need some nice draws but minor medals are on the cards. My prediction - 1 gold, 2 medals

Wheelchair fencing 4 athletes in 10 events Dimitri Coutya - Men's individual épée B - WR 1 - World Silver - Men's individual foil B - WR 1 - World Bronze - Men's individual sabre B - WR 7 Piers Gilliver - Men's individual épée A - WR 1 - world champion - Men's individual sabre A - WR 1 - World silver Oliver Lam Watson - Men's individual épée A - WR 18 - Men's individual foil A - 13 Gemma Collis-McCann - Women's individual épée A - WR 7 - Women's individual sabre A - WR 6 Men's Team Epee - 6th at worlds Men's Team Foil - 5th at worlds Piers Gilliver won the teams only gold in Tokyo but he has been suffering with concussion. Coutya looks to strongest chance for a gold but the Chinese will be tough to beat. Collis has won world cups before in both events and was ranked world number 1 in the past, so if she can find that form she could challenge My prediction - 0 gold 2 medals

Team Sports Men's wheelchair basketball team - After bronze in Tokyo, the team won world silver in 2022 and European gold in 2023. The only lost the world championships to the USA 66-67 so they are right up there for gold. Women's wheelchair basketball team - They lost in quarterfinals in Tokyo and could only manage 9th at the worlds, failing to get out of the group. They won silver at the europeans last year, losing to the world champions Netherlands in the final and winning 1 and losing 1 vs world 4th placed germany. They seem to be on the periphery of a medal but they may need a fortunate draw. Wheelchair rugby team - For me, winning the gold medal in tokyo was the highlight of the games. Their form has been weaker in the last cycle, losing in the quarter finals at the worlds and in the final of the europeans. They could win a medal but they need a good draw and will have to contend with a strong French team with a home crowd. My prediction - 1 gold, 1 medal

Taekwondo 3 athletes in 3 events Matt Bush - Men's +80kg - WR 4 - 2023 World champion Bath Munro - Women's -65kg - WR 1 - 2023 World Silver Amy Truesdale - Women's +65kg - WR 2 - 2023 World Champion All 3 athletes medalled at the last worlds and could certainly win gold. With only 10 athletes in each category, only a couple of wins will guarantee a medal. This squad feels a bit like the olympic squad where all athletes are world class and can win gold but can be a bit inconsistent as well. My prediction - 1 gold, 3 medals

Table Tennis 11 athletes in 14 events Rob Davies - Men's C1 Singles - WR 9 Tom Matthews - Men's C1 Singles - WR 5 Martin Perry - Men's C6 Singles - WR 7 Paul Karabardak - Men's C6 Singles - WR 14 Will Bayley - Men's C7 Singles - WR 1 Aaron McKibbin - Men's C8 Singles - WR 7 Billy Shilton - Men's C8 Singles - WR 6 Joshua Stacey - Men's C9 Singles - WR 6 Rob Davies/Tom Matthews - Men's Doubles MD4 - WR 7 Will Bayley/Martin Perry - Men's Doubles MD14 - WR 6 Paul Karabardak/Billy Shilton - Men's Doubles MD14 - WR 7 Aaron McKibbin/Josh Stacey - Men's Doubles MD18 - WR 1 Megan Shackleton - Women's C4 Singles - WR 9 Felicity Pickard - Women's C6 Singles - WR 4 Bly Twomey - Women's C7 Singles - WR 4 Felicity Pickard/Bly Twomey - Women's Doubles WD14 - WR 1 Tom Matthews/Megan Shackleton - Mixed Doubles XD7 - No rank Joshua Stacey/Bly Twomey - Mixed Doubles XD17 - WR 5 The world rankings, especially for the doubles are a bit suspect so try not to read too much into them. Thankfully the Chinese aren't as dominant in para table tennis as they are at able bodied, but they are still pretty strong. At the 2022 worlds, which didn't have China competing, the team won 3 golds, 2 silvers and 4 bronzes. Will Bayley will certainly be competitive and there is not ceiling for 14 year old Bly Twomey in her 3 events. Im going to be cautious with my prediction, because the Chinese will probably spoil the party somewhat. My prediction - 1 gold, 5 medals.

Para Swimming 27 athletes in 52 events World Rankings based off entry times Stephen Clegg - Men's 100m Freestyle S12 - WR 4 - Men's 100m Backstroke S12 - WR 1 - Men's 100m Butterfly S12 - WR 1 Rhys Darbey - Men's 200m IM SM14 - WR 4 Bruce Dee - Men's 100m Breaststroke SB6 - WR 9 - Men's 200m IM SM6 - WR 6 William Ellard - Men's 200 m freestyle S14 - WR 1 - Men's 100 m backstroke S14 - WR 4 - Men's 100 m butterfly S14 - WR 2 - Men's 200 m individual medley SM14 - WR 7 Louis Lawlor - Men's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 10 Matthew Redfern - Men's 100m breaststroke SB13 - WR 15 Harry Stewart - Men's 100m breaststroke SB14 - WR 5 Mark Thompsett - Men's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 3 Cameron Vearncombe - Men's 100m butterfly S14 - WR 8 - Men's 200m IM SM14 - WR 8 Ellie Challis - Women's 100m Freestyle S3 - WR 4 - Women's 50m Backstroke S3 - WR 1 Louise Fiddes - Women's 200m Freestyle S14 - WR 4 - Women's 100m breaststroke SB14 - WR 3 - Women's 100m Butterfly S14 - WR 5 - Women's 200m IM SM14 - WR 7 Grace Harvey - Women's 100m Breaststroke SB5 - WR 1 - Women's 50m Butterfly S6 - WR 9 - Women's 200m IM SM6 - WR 4 Susannah Hext - Women's 100m Freestyle S5 - WR 3 Eliza Humphrey - Women's 400m Freestyle S11 - WR 7 - Women's 200m IM SM11 - WR 7 Scarlett Humphrey - Women's 50m Freestyle S11 - WR 8 - Women's 400m Freestyle S11 - WR 6 - Women's 100m Breaststroke SB11 - WR 5 - Women's 200m IM SM11 - WR 6 Tully Kearney - Women's 100m Freestyle S5 - WR 1 - Women's 200m Freestyle S5 - WR 1 - Women's 50m backstroke S5 - WR 3 Poppy Maskill - Women's 200m freestyle S14 - WR 2 - Women's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 1 - Women's 100m butterfly S14 - WR 3 - Women's 200m IM SM14 - WR 2 Megan Neave - Women's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 4 Olivia Newman Baronius - Women's 200m Freestyle S14 - WR 3 - Women's 100m backstroke S14 - WR 2 - Women's 100m breaststroke SB14 - WR 6 - Women's 100m butterfly SM14 - WR 1 - Women's 200m IM SM14 - WR 4 Rebecca Redfern - Women's 100m breaststroke SB13 - WR 1 Faye Rogers - Women's 100m freestyle S10 - WR 10 - Women's 400m freestyle S10 - WR 5 - Women's 100m Butterfly S10 - WR 1 - Women's 200m IM SM10 - WR 3 Toni Shaw - Women's 100m freestyle S9 - WR 8 - Women's 400m freestyle S9 - WR 4 - Women's 200m IM SM9 - WR 8 Maisie Summers Newton - Women's 400m freestyle S6 - WR 3 - Women's 100m breaststroke SB6 - WR 1 - Women's 200m IM SM6 - WR 1 Alice Tai - Women's 50m freestyle S8 - WR 4 - Women's 400m freestyle S8 - WR 2 - Women's 100m Backstroke S8 - WR 1 - Women's 100m butterfly S8 - WR 1 - Women's 200m IM SM8 - WR 6 Callie-Ann Warrington - Women's 100m Freestyle S10 - WR 7 - Women's 100m Butterfly S10 - WR 3 Brock Whiston - Women's 400m freestyle S8 - WR 4 - Women's 100m Breaststroke SB8 - WR 1 - Women's 100m Butterfly S8 - WR 4 - Women's 200m IM SM8 - WR 1 Iona Winnifreth (13 years old!) - Women's 100m breaststroke SB7 - WR 2 - Women's 50m Butterfly S7 - WR 12 - Women's 200m IM SM7 - WR 6 S14 relay - WR 1 In Tokyo, the team won 8 golds an I think they are at that level based on guaranteed golds alone, mainly thanks to the return of Alice Tai and Brock Whiston, who both missed Tokyo. In terms of depth, GB's strongest classification is S14, with a strong group of up and coming teenagers. However, this class is very strong internationally, so there aren't any guaranteed golds apart from the men's 200m free and women's 100m backstroke. The big unknown is neutral athlete Valeriia Shabalina, who on paper is faster or equal to the GB swimmers in 3 events, but many of her times are from a 2022 Russian event, as she was banned from the 2023 worlds. This squad has a very large gold medal potential, but there are a lot of tight margins (which we saw in the olympics don't always favour GB). Despite this, I expect the squad to easily outperform Tokyo in terms of golds and medals. My prediction - 15 golds, and 35 medals.

I think you meant Dave Ellis rather than Oscar Kelly!

It was the only sport of the nineteen in which GB competed that they didn't medal in Tokyo. Since they started taking the Paralympics seriously China has been the dominant force in shooting. GB's last medals were way back in 2012.

Rowing World championship Day 4. I wasn't going to track the under 19's since LA 28 will probably come to early for them, but meh ended up watching them anways U19 Men’s Pair 3rd > Rep Women’s Pair 2nd > Final Women’s Four 1st > Final Men’s Four 1st > Final Men’s Eight seeding race > 1st Women’s eight seeding race 2nd Women’s Quad 3rd > REP Men’s Quad 2nd > SF Women’s Double 1st > SF Men’s Pair REP 2nd > Final U23 Men’s Pair B final 1st Women’s Pair Final: Gold (Holly Youd/ Anna Grace) two names to definitely keep an eye on, they dominated. Women’s Quad: Bronze 2 Medals from 2 finals, 5 more in the U23's to go

Shooting 4 athletes in 6 events Issy Bailey - P3 - 25m pistol SH1 - WR 29 Ryan Cockbill - R4 – 10 m air rifle standing SH2 - WR 6 - R5 – 10 m air rifle prone SH2 - WR 26 - R6 – 50 m rifle prone SH1 - WR 7 Tim Jeffrey - R3 – 10 m air rifle prone SH1 - WR 7 - R4 – 10 m air rifle standing SH2 - WR 20 - R9 – 50 m rifle prone SH2 - WR 5 Matt Skelhon - R3 – 10 m air rifle prone SH1 - WR 5 - R6 – 50 m rifle prone SH1 - WR 5 The team won 0 medals in Tokyo, and I have no idea what's going to happen in Paris. There are plently of events with highly ranked athletes but I don't know how strong this sport it depth wise. Given none of the athletes medalled at the 2022 worlds, and only won a couple of bronzes at the europeans this year, I would expect tokyo to be repeated. My prediction - 0 medals

Rowing 10 athletes in 4 events Ben Pritchard - Men's PR1 Men's Single Sculls - 2022 + 2023 World Bronze Lauren Rowles/Greg Stevenson - PR2 Mixed Double Sculls - 2023 World Champs Sam Murray/Annabel Caddick - PR3 Mixed Double Sculls PR3 Mixed Coxed Fours - 2023 World Champs All 4 squads are medal contenders, and both world champion teams should win. If there was ever a nailed on gold it is the PR3 mixed coxed fours, who have been utterly dominant in this event. Ben Pritchard looks fairly secure for bronze, as he has had a large gap between himself and 4th at both world championships. He also comfortably beat the world silver medallist at a world cup event. The main unknown is the PR3 mixed double sculls, who were 4th at last years worlds but won the European title this year, and came second at the world cup, beating half teams (1 different athletes) that won world silver and bronze very comfortably. Given the athletes haven't really competed this year it is hard to judge form, but to me it looks like the team is trending in the right direction My prediction - 2 golds 4 medals

Para Powerlifting 7 athletes in 7 events Mark Swan - Men's 65kg - WR 4 Matthew Harding - Men's 80kg - WR 7 Liam McGarry - Men's +107kg - WR 8 Zoe Newson - Women's -45kg - WR 3 Olivia Broome - Women's - 50kg - WR 6 Lottie McGuinness - Women's - 55kg - WR 9 Louise Sugden - Women's - 79kg - WR 7 With 3 bronzes in Tokyo, this sport is not a medal powerhouse for GB, and this trend will likely continue. Zoe Newson won commonwealth gold in 2022 and she is the most likely chance for a medal. My prediction - 0 gold, 1 medal

Para Triathlon 11 athletes in 7 events Henry Urand - Men's PTS3 - WR 10 Finley Jakes - Men's PTS4 - WR 11 Michael Taylor - Men's PTS4 - WR 10 Dave Ellis - Men's PTVI - WR 1 - World Champion 2023 Oscar Kelly - Men's PTVI - WR 7 Melissa Nichols - Women's PTWC - WR 6 Hannah Moore - Women's PTS4 - WR 4 Megan Richter - Women's PTS4 - WR 9 Claire Cashmore - Women's PTS5 - WR 1 - World Silver 2023 Lauren Steadman - Women's PTS5 - WR 11 - World Bronze 2023 Alison Peasgood - Women's PTVI - WR 11 GB won a medal of each colour in 2021, and based on the 2023 world championships, they are expected to match that result. Oscar Kelly hasn't lost a race since June 2023 so is a clear favourite. Lauren Steadman is the defending champion but has been suffering from long covid so her form is unknown. My prediction - 1 Gold 4 medals

Paracanoeing 9 athletes in 9 events Dave Phillipson - Men's KL2 - 2024 World Silver Rob Oliver - Men's KL3 Ed Clifton - Men's VL2 Jack Eyres - Men's VL3 - 2023 World bronze Jeanette Chippington - Women's KL1 - Women's VL2 Charlotte Henshaw - Women's KL2 - 2023 + 2024 World Champ - Women's VL3 - 2024 World Champ Emma Wiggs - Women's KL2 - 2023 World Silver - Women's VL2 - 2023 + 2024 World Champ Hope Gordon - Women's KL3 - 2024 World Silver - Women's VL3 - 2023 World Champ Laura Sugar - Women's KL3 - 2023 + 2024 World Champ On the women's side, this squad is completely dominant, with their only main competitors being each other. After the whole team won 3 golds and 7 medals in Tokyo, they are expected to upgrade after more events added. The women should win 4 golds with a number of 1-2s. The men's team have been more inconsistent over the cycle but can certainly win medals. My prediction - 4 golds 8 medals

I think it's both - a woman C4 is treated a bit like a man C3 for points purposes, which is one reason Cox represented such a valuable addition to the squad.

That does make more sense.

beat fairly comfortably despite a minor implosion of form in the end. They will play in the semis, in a tough but winnable match. I wasn't really expecting a win today given current tournament form but it's a nice surprise. That was probably the first basketball match I have properly watched and it feels like it can't make it's mind up whether it is a contact sport or not. Apparently if you run into someone you are fouled but you are allowed to wrap your arms around someone and push them off the court.

Is the mixed element in the relay's classification rather than gender based?