Topicmaster1010

My early bets. I know it doesn't make any sense 15 months before the games and before 24/25 winter season really started. But what the hell - I just like PREDICTIONS
 
So this is just for fun, if i were you i wouldn't look at it when i went to the bookies
 
But i will try to update it while the season unfolds and in April 25 it will be more interesting.
 
DAY 1
 
1. SPEED SKATING - W 3000m
 
1. Irene Schouten NED
2. Isabelle Weidemann CAN
3. Ragne Wiklund NOR
 
2. SNOWBOARD - M Big Air
 
1. Su Yiming CHN
2. Kira Kimura JPN
3. Taiga Hasegawa JPN
 
3. ALPINE SKIING - M Downhill !!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)
 
1. Marco Odermatt SUI
2. Cyprien Sarrazin FRA
3. Dominik Paris ITA
 
(dark horses: Florian Schieder ITA, Cameron Alexander CAN)
 
4. SKI JUMPING - W Normal Hill Individual
 
1. Nika Prevc SLO
2. Alexandria Loutitt CAN
3. Eirin Maria Kvandal NOR
 
5. CROSS-COUNTRY SKIING - W 10km + 10km Skiathlon
 
1. Jessie Diggins USA
2. Victoria Carl GER
3. Ebba Andersson SWE
 
(dark horse: Kerttu Niskanen FIN)
 
1-0-0---1
1-0-0---1
1-0-0---1
1-0-0---1
1-0-0---1
0-2-0---2
0-1-1---2
0-1-0---1
0-1-0---1
0-0-2---2
0-0-1---1
0-0-1---1

Canada won 12 medals at four continents. Graeme fish looks to be back in form where he won medals at the world championships in 2020. Laurent Dubreuil , Ivanie Blondin, Isabelle Weidemann and Connor Howe are picking up where they left off strong last season and both pursuit teams look as strong medal contenders as well on the World Cup circuit and championships. Also we are very strong in the men’s mass start as well instead of just the women’s. 

Great early breakdown. I agree with most of it, but I'll elaborate on three in particular:
 
Curling: I'm expecting a comeback after two very disappointing showings for Canada in Pyeongchang and Beijing. I think the national federation is taking it more seriously now that the world is catching up, especially in mixed doubles. I expect three medals, but a gold will be harder to come by. 
 
Hockey: As usual, women will be expected to win a gold. It'll be exciting seeing the men have NHL players, but I don't even think Canada will be a gold favourite. We simply do not have a goaltender. We have a couple of low-to-mid choices, so unless someone rises up suddenly in the next year it'll be hard to fight for gold. McDavid will only be able to do so much. USA, on the other hand, will have a very complete team with excellent goaltending. Even if Russia competes, they are the favourite right now. But, anything is possible in a one game elimination series. 
 
Short Track: This is currently our strongest team perhaps ever, which is surprising given how much stronger other countries have become recently (although the USA has dropped off the map almost completely). As you said, 3 is a minimum but as this team stands right now, they could run away with the medal table. However, short track is always unpredictable and anything can happen in the races. 
 
I agree, high 20s for total medals, could even get into the 30s if the stars align. I just hope Canada wins more golds this time. 4 in Beijing (and only one individual) was a tragedy. 

We could do a breakdown of  Canada's medal chances by sport. Overall, I'd say Canada is in line to win a number of medals in the high 20's.
 
Alpine Skiing: Not too familiar with this sport but we did win 3 medals in Olympic events at the last World Championships and skiers like James Crawford, Cameron Alexander and Valerie Grenier are capable of making podiums on the World Cup. 0-3 medals would be the likely range here.
 
Biathlon: The program is declining. At this point, the better question is whether or not we can qualify both the men's and womens' relays.
 
Bobsleigh: Another declining sport. The men's team is completely existent following Justin Kripps retirement. On the women's side, maybe 1 medal is possible.
 
Cross-Country Skiing: Antoine Cyr would be the most likely candidate to medal in this sport. He was 10th in the overall world cup standings last year and it'll be interesting to see if he can improve on that. 0 medals is still likely though.
 
Curling: 3 medals will be the expectation but Canada has underperformed greatly at the last 2 Olympics so who knows.
 
Figure Skating: Possible medals in pairs, ice dance and the team event. If Russia is back, then the medal chances greatly decrease.
 
Freestyle Skiing: As always, many medal contenders across almost all disciplines. Around 8 medals should be the expectation here.
 
Ice Hockey: With the supposed return of NHL players to the Olympics, the expectation will be two gold medals or there'll be riots.
 
Luge: Likely to be a young team sent to the games. Maybe a medal chance in 2030 but not here.
 
Nordic Combined: I'll eat a sock if we qualify an athlete in Nordic Combined
 
Short Track: Lot's of potential for medals here. The men's team has been on fire to start the season with William Dandjinou looking like the best skater on the planet right now. Women's team is not as strong but also has some potential for medals. The minimum should be 3 medals with 8-10 medals possible if everything goes right.
 
Skeleton: Hallie Clarke is the reigning world champion but skeleton is pretty unpredictable so who knows. No chance on the men's side.
 
Ski Jumping: For the first time in probably ages, a legitimate medal in ski jumping is realistic thanks to Alexandria Loutitt and Abigail Strate. A medal in ski jumping would currently be my biggest wish.
 
Ski Mountaineering: No chance here.
 
Snowboarding: As always, the slopestyle and big air events will provide the biggest chances of medals for Canada. Grondin in snowboard cross also looks like the current favourite. Maybe a chance in women's halfpipe as well. Some surprise medals in some other events are also possible.
 
Speed Skating: The team is getting older but the top skaters are still capable of winning medals. Improving on the 5 medals won in Beijing should be a realistic expectation.

I met JT Miller and Conor Garland of the  yesterday, it was an incredible experience 

Panama's 10th inning loss to the Netherlands ultimately cost it a spot in the Super Round.
 
Still, a great tournament for them. This is all the more reason to want a 12-team tournament at the Olympics.

I would disagree here. Canada hasn’t won a medal at Mixed Doubles Worlds since 2019, so I’d say 2. 

We could do a breakdown of  Canada's medal chances by sport. Overall, I'd say Canada is in line to win a number of medals in the high 20's.
 
Alpine Skiing: Not too familiar with this sport but we did win 3 medals in Olympic events at the last World Championships and skiers like James Crawford, Cameron Alexander and Valerie Grenier are capable of making podiums on the World Cup. 0-3 medals would be the likely range here.
 
Biathlon: The program is declining. At this point, the better question is whether or not we can qualify both the men's and womens' relays.
 
Bobsleigh: Another declining sport. The men's team is completely existent following Justin Kripps retirement. On the women's side, maybe 1 medal is possible.
 
Cross-Country Skiing: Antoine Cyr would be the most likely candidate to medal in this sport. He was 10th in the overall world cup standings last year and it'll be interesting to see if he can improve on that. 0 medals is still likely though.
 
Curling: 3 medals will be the expectation but Canada has underperformed greatly at the last 2 Olympics so who knows.
 
Figure Skating: Possible medals in pairs, ice dance and the team event. If Russia is back, then the medal chances greatly decrease.
 
Freestyle Skiing: As always, many medal contenders across almost all disciplines. Around 8 medals should be the expectation here.
 
Ice Hockey: With the supposed return of NHL players to the Olympics, the expectation will be two gold medals or there'll be riots.
 
Luge: Likely to be a young team sent to the games. Maybe a medal chance in 2030 but not here.
 
Nordic Combined: I'll eat a sock if we qualify an athlete in Nordic Combined
 
Short Track: Lot's of potential for medals here. The men's team has been on fire to start the season with William Dandjinou looking like the best skater on the planet right now. Women's team is not as strong but also has some potential for medals. The minimum should be 3 medals with 8-10 medals possible if everything goes right.
 
Skeleton: Hallie Clarke is the reigning world champion but skeleton is pretty unpredictable so who knows. No chance on the men's side.
 
Ski Jumping: For the first time in probably ages, a legitimate medal in ski jumping is realistic thanks to Alexandria Loutitt and Abigail Strate. A medal in ski jumping would currently be my biggest wish.
 
Ski Mountaineering: No chance here.
 
Snowboarding: As always, the slopestyle and big air events will provide the biggest chances of medals for Canada. Grondin in snowboard cross also looks like the current favourite. Maybe a chance in women's halfpipe as well. Some surprise medals in some other events are also possible.
 
Speed Skating: The team is getting older but the top skaters are still capable of winning medals. Improving on the 5 medals won in Beijing should be a realistic expectation.

Lots of medal options. So is this how Canada, Norway and Germany feel when the winter season comes around? 
 
 

World Cup podium for Nicole Rocha in Pyeongchang  
 
Start order made a massive difference, to be fair, even more so in the second run, but still  

We could do a breakdown of  Canada's medal chances by sport. Overall, I'd say Canada is in line to win a number of medals in the high 20's.
 
Alpine Skiing: Not too familiar with this sport but we did win 3 medals in Olympic events at the last World Championships and skiers like James Crawford, Cameron Alexander and Valerie Grenier are capable of making podiums on the World Cup. 0-3 medals would be the likely range here.
 
Biathlon: The program is declining. At this point, the better question is whether or not we can qualify both the men's and womens' relays.
 
Bobsleigh: Another declining sport. The men's team is completely existent following Justin Kripps retirement. On the women's side, maybe 1 medal is possible.
 
Cross-Country Skiing: Antoine Cyr would be the most likely candidate to medal in this sport. He was 10th in the overall world cup standings last year and it'll be interesting to see if he can improve on that. 0 medals is still likely though.
 
Curling: 3 medals will be the expectation but Canada has underperformed greatly at the last 2 Olympics so who knows.
 
Figure Skating: Possible medals in pairs, ice dance and the team event. If Russia is back, then the medal chances greatly decrease.
 
Freestyle Skiing: As always, many medal contenders across almost all disciplines. Around 8 medals should be the expectation here.
 
Ice Hockey: With the supposed return of NHL players to the Olympics, the expectation will be two gold medals or there'll be riots.
 
Luge: Likely to be a young team sent to the games. Maybe a medal chance in 2030 but not here.
 
Nordic Combined: I'll eat a sock if we qualify an athlete in Nordic Combined
 
Short Track: Lot's of potential for medals here. The men's team has been on fire to start the season with William Dandjinou looking like the best skater on the planet right now. Women's team is not as strong but also has some potential for medals. The minimum should be 3 medals with 8-10 medals possible if everything goes right.
 
Skeleton: Hallie Clarke is the reigning world champion but skeleton is pretty unpredictable so who knows. No chance on the men's side.
 
Ski Jumping: For the first time in probably ages, a legitimate medal in ski jumping is realistic thanks to Alexandria Loutitt and Abigail Strate. A medal in ski jumping would currently be my biggest wish.
 
Ski Mountaineering: No chance here.
 
Snowboarding: As always, the slopestyle and big air events will provide the biggest chances of medals for Canada. Grondin in snowboard cross also looks like the current favourite. Maybe a chance in women's halfpipe as well. Some surprise medals in some other events are also possible.
 
Speed Skating: The team is getting older but the top skaters are still capable of winning medals. Improving on the 5 medals won in Beijing should be a realistic expectation.

Fingers crossed the women’s curling gold medal match also undergoes changes, very preferably an hour earlier so it doesn’t conflict with the men’s hockey gold medal match 
 
Seriously, what were they thinking 

And yet another version is out . This time with some more noticeable changes.
 
20241031_MiCo2026 Comp Schedule Version 7.pdf
 
Ice Hockey:
Women's semifinals moved from the Rho Arena to the Santa Giulia Arena Women's gold medal game moved up to a 19:10 start time (was previous 20:10)  
Speed Skating:
Most of the events have had their session cut by somewhere between 5 and 30 minutes. Start times remain the same  
Figure Skating:
Looks like the order of events in team event is now: Ice Dance -> Pairs -> Women. Women were previously listed first.  
Alpine Skiing:
Downhill portion of the team combined cut by 45 minutes 1st Run of the Giant Slalom and Slalom events cut by 30 minutes  
Ski Mountaineering:
Sprint heats extended by 8 minutes. Finals session extended by 13 minutes  
Ski Jumping:
All sessions shortened by 5 to 15 minutes  

Qualification for the 2026 World Baseball Classic has been announced. There'll be 2 qualification Pools and 4 teams in each with the top 2 teams in each pool advancing to the 2026 WBC.
 
As a fan of international baseball, words cannot describe how disappointed I am. We are coming off arguably the greatest international baseball tournament in history in 2023 and we are cutting the number of teams in the qualification round from 12 to 8 teams . How do you expect to grow baseball like that? Teams like  Argentina and  Pakistan have been on the rise but now they won't have the chance to qualify.
 
 
Taipei Qualification Pool (Feb. 21-25, 2025)
 Nicaragua
 South Africa
 Spain
 Taiwan
 

 
Tucson Qualification Pool (Mar. 2-6, 2025)
 Brazil
 China
 Colombia
 Germany
 

And yet another version is out . This time with some more noticeable changes.
 
20241031_MiCo2026 Comp Schedule Version 7.pdf
 
Ice Hockey:
Women's semifinals moved from the Rho Arena to the Santa Giulia Arena Women's gold medal game moved up to a 19:10 start time (was previous 20:10)  
Speed Skating:
Most of the events have had their session cut by somewhere between 5 and 30 minutes. Start times remain the same  
Figure Skating:
Looks like the order of events in team event is now: Ice Dance -> Pairs -> Women. Women were previously listed first.  
Alpine Skiing:
Downhill portion of the team combined cut by 45 minutes 1st Run of the Giant Slalom and Slalom events cut by 30 minutes  
Ski Mountaineering:
Sprint heats extended by 8 minutes. Finals session extended by 13 minutes  
Ski Jumping:
All sessions shortened by 5 to 15 minutes  

Detailed Competition schedule with start times is out
 
20241031_MiCo2026 Para Comp Schedule Version 4.pdf

And yet another version is out . This time with some more noticeable changes.
 
20241031_MiCo2026 Comp Schedule Version 7.pdf
 
Ice Hockey:
Women's semifinals moved from the Rho Arena to the Santa Giulia Arena Women's gold medal game moved up to a 19:10 start time (was previous 20:10)  
Speed Skating:
Most of the events have had their session cut by somewhere between 5 and 30 minutes. Start times remain the same  
Figure Skating:
Looks like the order of events in team event is now: Ice Dance -> Pairs -> Women. Women were previously listed first.  
Alpine Skiing:
Downhill portion of the team combined cut by 45 minutes 1st Run of the Giant Slalom and Slalom events cut by 30 minutes  
Ski Mountaineering:
Sprint heats extended by 8 minutes. Finals session extended by 13 minutes  
Ski Jumping:
All sessions shortened by 5 to 15 minutes  

More AI visualizations of the venues. 
 
 


 

 

I think there's a real possibility we don't qualify a mens relay team for 2026. The women should be fine I think.

World / IBU cup teams announced: https://sirc.ca/news/eight-canadian-biathletes-named-to-the-ibu-world-cup-team/

Detailed final standings. Rows represent songs, columns represent juries.
 
Rank Nation Points FRA SWE IRL GRE SLO NZL ITA MLT POL DEN USA TUR ARG CHN INA ESP GUA MEX NED ALB POR GBR IND CZE ROU CAN TUN LTU SRB CHI BUL MDA BRA HUN 1 Czech Republic 160   11   8 12   4 11     12     12   9 9   11 11   8 10   11         9     12   2 Sweden 157       7 2   12 12   3 10   11 6   6 8     7   12     9 8     10 10 12     12 3 Albania 116         10     9 1   11   4 4               9 11   10     11   11   12 6 7 4 France 113   4       8           12               12 10   12 7 4   4 9 2 7   11 1 10 5 Greece 112     1   6 9 10     5     9   1   10 10     9     4   12 5   6   5 10     6 United States 109 9 2 9     3       10   11   2 10 5   12           1   1 3 12       8   11 7 Argentina 106     12 3     11     6   1   9 2 12   8 10     2           4 5 6 7 7   1 8 Denmark 103 7 9 7     11     9     9           3     3           10 8   12   6   9 9 Ireland 96   1       5 7 7       4 8   11           8     6   7 9 1 8   8   4 2 10 Spain 94 4     9 11       11   7     11     5   1 9 7       5       11   3       11 Bulgaria 93       10 5   2 6 8         7   3     5     10   11 6 5 2 6 4 3         12 Guatemala 93     2     6 8   10   5 5     5     9 7 8     4   1   11           8 4 13 Poland 90 10 12                 2   10   3   11 2     12     12   2         9     5 14 Hungary 89 11   11           7 9                   4   5   8   10   7 7 1     9   15 China 88 1   5 1   1       11   3       11 1 4   1     5 3 3 4 7 10     4   7 6 16 Chile 87 3   4     7 5 10   7   10 7 1   1   11       11 2         3         5   17 Canada 83   10 10   1 4 9   2 8       8 6 4     8         2     8           3   18 Mexico 83 12     12     6   12     7     4 10 2       4 3           5     6       19 Netherlands 76   5     4     1   12         12     1   5 11         6     1       10 8 20 Brazil 72 5     4 3             6 5 10         6   2 1 8 5         3 2 10 2     21 Lithuania 67   3         3   5           8     6     5   6 9 7           11 4     22 Tunisia 63 8 6         1   6     8   5 9   4           3   2               11   23 India 62   7   6 8     8 3   4         2       6 6       12                   24 Romania 61 2 8   11 7     5     1                     6 9     9           3     25 Great Britain 58     6                         7   5 3         10   11   2   5   9     26 Slovenia 58                   2 8 2 12       12   9                   12   1       27 Italy 45           2   4   1         7   6     10   4             9   2       28 Serbia 44     3         3     9   1       7   12                     8   1     29 Moldova 32         9           6           3   2           8         4         30 New Zealand 31                   4     3     8   7 4                           2 3 31 Indonesia 31 6   8 2       2                             1       12               32 Malta 29       5         4   3                 3   7 7                       33 Turkey 26           10             6               1         3 6               34 Portugal 25           12             2 3           2             1         5    

Congratulations to  on your medals!
 
Thanks @Cinnamon Bun for organizing
 
And thanks everyone for providing a great days worth of entertainment. It was a lot of fun. Already looking forward to the next edition!

Congrats on getting the  Canadian medal

You couldn't have scripted a better finish to the contest