CCB

Draw for Tokyo will be held on the 21st right after men's last chance tournament finishes

Well @rafalgorka, after my predictions for today it turned out that I'm only human ;-). I only predicted Golikova correctly. She skated a superb 500 meter, although she really was really lucky to be able to take advantage of her opponent at the intersection. Kok finished in the outside lane and could never profit from her opponent. But hey, Golikova deserved the win for sure.
 
The teampursuit was really close. Both winning teams know that Japan would have won, if they had participated. I think therefore the joy was not so great.
 
For tomorrow my predictions:
 
Mass start men: Bart Swings  
Mass start women: Irene Schouten  , if the Canadian ladies don't deliberately bother her again.
1000 men: Pawel Kulizhnikov  
1000 women: Brittany Bowe  . Very sure about this one, she has the ultimate draw. Inside finish against her biggest opponent, Jutta Leerdam.

3/3 of today’s winners predicted correctly. Let’s go Femke! 

@CCB how did you know that??? ;-)))
Please don't share your tips for next events with us - YOU WILL SPOIL ALL THE FUN !!! ;-)
 
I'm joking, ofc ;-)

Nice to read your predictions. For me Antoinette de Jong  and Natalia Voronina  are the clear favourites at the women's side, Nils van der Poel   will win the men's race tomorrow, although I hope for Patrick Roest  that he can finally become world champion on a single distance.

Draws are out for tomorrow: https://live.isuresults.eu/events/2021_NED_0005/schedule
 
My predictions for tomorrow, just for fun:
 
Women's 3.000m
 
 3:57,53 - Irene Schouten  3:58,01 - Antoinette de Jong  3:58,57 - Natalia Voronina  3:59,61 - Joy Beune  3:59,97 - Isabelle Weidemann  4:00,33 - Martina Sáblíková  4:01,26 - Ragne Wiklund  4:04,03 - Francesca Lollobrigida  4:04,75 - Evgeniia Lalenkova
 4:05,79 - Valerie Maltais
 4:05,96 - Marina Zueva
 4:06,59 - Magdalena Czyszczoń
 4:08,29 - Sofie Karoline Haugen
 4:09,10 - Nadezhda Morozova
 4:09,55 - Ekaterina Sloeva
 4:10,37 - Abigail McCluskey
 4:10,40 - Nikola Zdráhalová
 4:10,42 - Elena Eranina
 4:11,67 - Mareike Thum
 4:12,84 - Linda Rossi
 
Men's 5.000m:
 
 6:06,11 - Patrick Roest  6:10,41 - Nils van der Poel  6:11,70 - Sven Kramer  6:12,46 - Davide Ghiotto  6:12,73 - Sergey Trofimov  6:13,26 - Jorrit Bergsma  6:13,63 - Hallgeir Engebråten  6:14,93 - Bart Swings  6:15,89 - Danila Semerikov  6:17,60 - Sverre Lunde Pedersen  6:18,88 - Patrick Beckert  6:19,06 - Andrea Giovannini  6:19,18 - Jordan Belchos  6:19,28 - Michele Malfatti 6:21,08 - Daniil Aldoshkin  6:21,61 - Vitaliy Chshigolev  6:21,76 - Peder Kongshaug  6:22,16 - Ethan Cepuran  6:22,71 - Timothy Loubineaud  6:23,94 - Peter Michael

Short explaination how I prepare the start lists file:
 
(English Wikipedia is my best friend here)
and remember: Q is sb who qualified, q is sb who I predict to qualify
 
Archery - English Wikipedia Tokyo 2020 qualification website
Artistic swimming - English Wikipedia
Athletics - World Athletics (IAAF) road to Tokyo 2020 olympics rankings - in ind events: athletes with minimum achieved and then next athletes according to the ranking until we have a full quota for an event; in relays - 8 relays already qualified via wch 2019 and then 8 next relays according to ranking
Badminton - Olympic ranking simulation on English wikipedia
Baseball - En wiki
Basketball M and W, 3x3 M and W - En wiki, W basketball quali finished
Boxing - En wiki
Canoeing - En wiki
Cycling - En wiki again (road and track cycling - quali finished)
Diving - En wiki
Equestrian - En wiki (quali finished)
Fencing - Facebook: Fencing - Qualification for Tokyo 2020 Olympics site
Field hockey - En wiki (M and W quali finished)
Football - En wiki
Golf - olympic rankings simulation on IGF website
Gymnastics - En wiki
Handball - En wiki
Judo - olympic rankings simulation on IJF website
Karate - En wiki
Modern pentathlon - En wiki
Rowing - En wiki
Rugby sevens - En wiki
Sailing - En wiki
Shooting - En wiki
Skateboarding - I HAVEN'T DONE IT YET
Softball - En wiki, quali finished
Sport climbing - En wiki, quali finished
Surfing - En wiki
Swimming - that's complicated. In ind events I use En wiki again, but then I use FINA rankings website and find swimmers with OQT time achieved (I know FINA rankings are not good but you can easily make a ranking from 01/03/2019 to "today" there, I will use SwimSwam rankings in future, as well. And I will look how the trials go in particular countries. In relays - 12 teams qualified from 2019 wch and 4 best times from FINA rankings
Table tennis - En wiki again
Taekwondo - En wiki
Tennis - In singles, it is relatively easily: top 56 from ATP or WTA rankings, max 4 players from one country and then 8 additional players according to En wiki rules, Singles are easy part here, I have done it already and I will update these rankings after AO. But M, W and mixed doubles - I HAVEN'T DONE IT YET. This is very difficult to predict.
Triathlon - Olympic rankings simulation on ITU website
Volleyball indoor - En wiki, quali finished
Volleyball beach - En wiki for a few pairs already qualified and then FIVB beach volleyball olympic ranking simulation website
Water polo - En wiki (W quali finished)
Weightlifting - I haven't done it yet, I think this is the most difficult sport to predict the start lists and you all know why. Very difficult quali system and then ... all the doping rules... I am afraid I will not be able to prepare the potential start lists here until the very last moment
Wrestling - guess what?... ENGLISH WIKIPEDIA
 
That's how it works.
It probably has many mistakes. I'm waiting for all your ideas and comments on this.
 
And remember - all the events are in calendar order, first the events which start on day -2, then the ones which start on day -1, then day 0, then day 1 and so on.. It is strange order, I know, but I like it.
 
But - and you obviously know that, but I'll say it - if you want to check e.g. all the POL potential start lists you just do "POL" Ctrl+F and you have it. And then step two: you do "POLAND" Ctrl+F and you have the team sports.
 
The same with e.g. "ATHLETICS" Ctrl+F
 
I know all ot this data is everywhere on the internet, but I just want to have it in one place.
 
I think 50-60% events are done already, but this early draft ofc.
 
More to come this evening,
 
Have a good weekend, everyone.
 
 
 
 
 
 

I wish someone canceled you already.

Canada will not compete in team jumping during Tokyo Games.
 
https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1102939/canada-nicole-walker-cas-result
 
 Argentina takes team quota instead.

The Games will happen with or without the approval of the japanese people. They should have thought of this 10 years ago, or whenever they got the Games. If they indeed pull a cancelation stunt, Japan should be forbidden to host any major events for the next 70 years and will have to live with their failures.  Oh right, they can't, because suicides will always be bigger, than any Covid there...

I still think the Olympics will happen, behind closed doors, extreme hygienical measures like weird medal podiums in which athletes will stand separately and hang the medals hemselves or so.. and with only vaccinated athletes/team staff.
 
There tooooooo much money involved and already lost here. They will do everything to save at least the few they can

but this is already the last edition of the Summer Olympics...
 
or do you dare to still name "Olympic" that farce in 2024 with breakdance, canoe extreme, the 35km team race walk and all the other "artistic", urban and youth sh*t they enforced instead of throwing it out... 
 
so, how could the ioc reputation be worse than what already is?  

Oh wow, I'm not thinking about the Peking Games at all. First Tokio (or not).
But in the Women's 3000 meter there's one clear favourite for me: Martina Sablikova from Czech Republic. For the Dutch Antoinette de Jong is the best we have. Reigning 3000 meter Olympic Champion Carlijn Achtereekte didn't even qualify for this year's World Championships and former 3000 meter Olympic champion Ireen Wüst decided not to skate this distance anymore.
 
Tips: Martina Sablikova  , Antoinette de Jong  , Isabel Weidemann  , Natalia Voronina  and of course Miho Takagi  . Takagi could win medals on 5 distances (500, 1000, 1500, 3000, team pursuit).
 
Shorttrack mixed gender relay:  should have a promising team with Suzanne Schulting as our big star. But favourites are  and South Korea.

I don't think so...
 
maybe some people are, but their governors look quite calm...I'm sure they know what to do better than us...

Apparently Japan only starts vaccinating in May 2021. That seems pretty late. The Olympic games are no longer realistic to me. 

Mathieu van der Poel really wants to participate in the MTB Olympics rather than the Tour, but the question is what his sponsor wants. But first of all: Covid-infections in Japan are increasing rapidly, so at this moment I don't expect the Games will go on at all. 

Well, same 'problems' here. I need free time in summer anyway, so I think I will be off duty in late July/early August. For now I hope the vaccins do their job and everyone stays healthy. Unfortunately Japan only starts their vaccination program at the end of February.
 
At the same time I very much hope the Games will go on. But as we all know: hope is deferred disappointment ...

Netherlands will have only 4 riders, because they choose an extra track cycling rider instead of 5 riders for men's road rice. The 4 Dutch riders will be presumably Wilco Kelderman, Tom Dumoulin, Steven Kruiswijk and Sam Oomen. Not sure if the extra track cycling rider (Jan Willem van Schip) also rides the road race.
 
Favourites: BELGIUM for sure. Hoping for Wout van Aert!

On day 1 I would obviously focus on men's cycling road race. Previously I wrote here that Primoz Roglic will win that one. Now thinking whether I should correct that opinion or not. I will try to write sth on that topic soon. Because I remember there were strong recommendations for Alaphilippe and Evenepoel here as well. I hope they both will be healthy next summer, wish them all the best. 
 
After cycling - I would focus on first swimming heats and men's volleyball POL vs IRI and FRA vs USA. 
 
And - last but not least - I will try to predict in which events Poland will have a chance for a decent result on day 1.
 
Anyway, I must admit that sometimes making such analysis is even better than the real thing for me. ?
 
 

That one was definitely on my list of moments to post!
 
On the note of swimming: Beijing 2008, Maarten van der Weijden gold in 10 KM open water swimming.
 

Team: track cycling sprint (Lavreysen/Hoogland/van den Berg/Büchli). I agree with your other choices, although speedskater Jutta Leerdam deserves as well to be sportswoman of the year.

Team: track cycling sprint (Lavreysen/Hoogland/van den Berg/Büchli). I agree with your other choices, although speedskater Jutta Leerdam deserves as well to be sportswoman of the year.

Who do you think should be a sportsman/sportswoman of the year 2020 in your country??? 
 
Man or woman. No two different categories. 
 
I say - Poland - 1. Iga Świątek ?? 2. Robert Lewandowski ?? Both achived a lot this year But Iga at Roland Garros means  more to me. 

It's so dependent on how many (important) events in each sport actually happened this year. As a result it feels like cycling just got the most opportunity to shine this year. There has been other sports, but often the events were far more limited in attendance and attention (athletics and swimming for example).
 
Sportsman: Mathieu van der Poel
Sportswoman: Anna van der Breggen
Talent: Femke Bol
Team: ??? (probably a rowing team after that successful European championship)
 
Surely my follow Dutchmen will have some more original picks.

She was such a talent. It's a pity she has finished her career so quickly.