OlympicsFan

I think Netherlands will win 40+ medals. Also: The Netherlands should win more medals than Germany, which would be quite something. I think they already did it at the Winter Olympics in 2018.

Would be great if Germany wouldn’t qualify a single relay. Maybe this would force them to change their funding strategy.

The number of athletes with A standard has decreased by 20 %, although the level was already pathetic in 2021. The goal should be to to get better, not to „only“ get worse by 20 %. Sadly the usual German strategy of lowering the standards to keep the appearance doesn’t work in an international competition. Other countries keep raising their level while Germany is happy telling itself that it isn’t too bad. The same is true for the overall number of medals, somehow it is inevitable that the number of medals keeps decreasing (despite more money), because … reasons. Meanwhile the Netherlands and GB keep improving. Bernd Berkhahn shows that it is possible to develop world class swimmers in Germany, sadly no other coach seems to be qualified. German swimmers have to go to the U.S. (Miroslaw, Elendt, Mrozinski, Varjasi, Selin, Büssing) or Australia (Salchow) if they want to keep improving. Germany should just give all the best talents a scholarship to train in the U.S. (+ enough money for Bernd Berkhahn and his group) and call it a day.

I am not missing Elendt, I just don’t count a time achieved in some obscure Time trial that no one witnessed. In the end Germany can still allow her to compete in the individual event, same is true for Armbruster in men’s 100 fly. Not sure if Germany ever had Olympics with at least one A standard in every event, but I know that Germany had clearly more A standards in 2021 and back then there were also less events without German representation. On the men’s side Germany isn’t that far off. Only in the 200 breast and 200 IM an A standard seemed impossible. On the women’s side however there are tons of events (50/100 free, 200 breast, 100/200 back, 200 fly, 200/400 IM) where the standard was lightyears away. In most of those events there is some talent, but odds are that they will stagnate or regress in the next few years (as usual). 50 free: Jazy, Holt, Boksca 100 free: Jazy, Holt, Boksca, Schulze, Roth 200 breast: Ludwig, Elendt 100 back: Börstler, Seidel, Roth 200 back: Seidel, Werner, Helget 200 fly: Baievych, Köhler 200 IM: Roth, Schulze, Börstler, Benkler 400 IM: Benkler, Kohlmann I am most hopeful for Börstler and Holt, since they both train in Magdeburg. I wish other talents like Ackermann, Kohlmann, Benkler or Baievych would also train there.

16 athletes with the A standard, only 4 women and only one of them in a non-freestyle events. Hopefully Germany can improve to at least 24 athletes under the A standard in 2028. Possible contenders (would be great if anyone else could come out of nowhere to qualify): Men: 50 free: Selin, Salchow, Varjasi 100 free: Salchow, Varjasi, Miroslaw, Armbruster, Wrede, Eidam 200 free: Märtens, Miroslaw, Salchow, Sorgius, A. Schubert, Bäschnitt, Klemet, Peschke, Fritzke 400/800/1500 free: Märtens, Klemet, Schwarz, A. Schubert, Liebmann 100/200 breast: Matzerath, Imodou, De Geus, Biltaev, Engelien, Wendland, Bock, Gräfe 100 back: Passek, Jahn 200 back: Jahn, Büssing, Märtens 100 fly: Armbruster, Kammann, Varjasi, Schulrath, Eidam, Koch 200 fly: L. Schubert 200 IM: Büssing, Wendland, Dramm, Hammer 400 IM: Büssing, Wendland, A. Schubert, Hammer Women: 50 free: Jazy, Schulze, Holt, Boksca 100 free: Holt, Schulze, Mrozinski, Jazy, Roth 200 free: Gose, Mrozinski, Maier, Holt, Schulze, Roth, Werner 400 free: Gose, Märtens, Werner, Mrozinski, Ackermann 800 free: Gose, Märtens, Werner, Ackermann, Baievych 1500 free: Gose, Märtens, Werner, Ackermann 100 breast: Ludwig, Schneider, Schulze, Elendt 200 breast: Ludwig, Elendt 100 back: Börstler, Seidel, Roth 200 back: Seidel, Werner, Helget 100 fly: Köhler, Baievych, Roth, Vandenhirtz 200 fly: Köhler, Baievych 200 IM: Schulze, Roth, Börstler 400 IM: Benkler, Kohlmann, Baievych This time there were 13 events (out of 28) where no German athlete achieved the A standard, hopefully this number will be dramatically lower in 2028. Obviously the goal should be to have at least one athlete with the A standard in every event, but sadly that doesn’t seem realistic. Especially women’s 200/400 IM and men’s 200 breast look like lost causes.

Do you even follow swimming? Please look up the results of the last world championships. When did Italy last go faster than the Chinese time from this year? China, South Korea and Australia should normally fight for bronze. Don’t see how Italy is relevant in this discussion.

Yeah, but Australia should be at least 0.6 seconds faster on the freestyle leg.

I still don’t see China seriously threatening the U.S. or Australia. China should be about 1.5 seconds behind after the first leg and all the waves will make it very difficult to catch up. I think China is a rather clear favorite for bronze, but probably not more than that. I actually think that China could medal in all 7 relays. The men’s 800 free relay should be the closest call, followed by the men’s 400 free relay. There is a chance that only 4 different nations will win relay medals. Especially the women’s relays look super „shallow“, only the U.S., Australia, China and maybe Canada look like realistic medal contenders. No European nation has a realistic medal chance.

I don’t think that the record on the women’s side is a supersuited one (if that is what you meant). Almost all records are in danger. Only men’s 200/800 free, men’s 100 breast, men’s 200 back, women’s 200 fly and possibly men’s 200 fly seem safe.

1) It clashes with the 200 free at the Olympics. 2) She already put down a time. Don’t see anyone who could realistically get close. 3) Don’t see how it would make sense to put McKeown on the breast leg. You would probably lose one second on the back and free leg (combined). McKeown would have to be 1.5 seconds faster than your second best breastroker to justify putting her there. Even if Strauch doesn’t improve till trials, McKeown would have to be 1:05 mid, which doesn’t seem realistic. In addition to that it wouldn’t help your athletes to swim against the American wave (considering that Smith most likely would open up a considerable gap for the U.S.).

Same as in basketball and football.

Not sure I would call the UK highly developed … More likely politicians like to use sports to masquerade all the other (real) problems (NHS, education system, housing problem, stagnating wages).

Obviously that is nonsense. Everyone at the top dopes (at least in somewhat relevant sports), Eastern Europeans just doped more ruthlessly. Whenever there is money involved, there is cheating. Makes no sense to assume that someone who isn’t doping can win gold, when the huge majority of people live in countries where doping pays off most of the time. Why should someone in Africa/Russia/China/India not dope, when they can become „rich“ by doing it and don’t really face much consequences even if they get caught? In order to outperform the most talented, doped athletes from those nations, you have to dope as well. There is nothing to suggest that people from rich nations are genetically superior and therefore don’t have to dope to beat the doped athletes from all those other nations (that represent at least 80 % of the global population/talent pool). Anyone who disagrees has to defend one of the following two lines of reasoning and in my opinion both don’t really make sense: a) People in rich nations are somehow special and therefore don’t have to dope to dominate the most talented, doped up athletes from the rest of the world (that makes up at least 80 % of the talent pool) b) There is no widespread doping in poorer nations (despite the evidence from countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Russia or China saying otherwise)

Did she say that she will swim it at trials? Absolutely don’t see her swimming it at the Olympics.

1) What starting date did you use? Do you only look at 2024 results or all results since the beginning of the qualifying period? 2) Many nations haven’t had their trials yet, so we will probably see some changes. I would be shocked if Australia would have less athletes with the A standard than Japan.

It is the same when you look at the results of the International Mathematical Olympiad. Based on the names you wouldn’t be able to tell whether a team is from the U.S., Canada or China.

Don’t see how Hungary wouldn’t be huge underdogs against Sweden. Croatia, Spain and Germany should also be clearly favored over them. Early predictions for quarterfinals: Sweden - Egypt Croatia - Norway Spain - Denmark Germany - France

I said that Australia and the U.S. are a lock for gold and silver (not in that order). USA is the favorite for gold. 1) Australia is clearly faster than Canada (combined almost 2 seconds) on backstroke and freestyle, about equal on butterfly and at most a second behind on breaststroke. 2) Please look up the Chinese breaststroke leg … China is about equal on butterfly, clearly faster on breaststroke, about equal on freestyle and maybe (half) a second slower on backstroke. Right now there is absolutely no basis to say that the breaststroke leg is close. At the moment it looks like a coin toss. Canada is definitely much closer to China than to Australia.

How does that make it any better? Why not throw from the top of the Himalaya or in a wind canal?

Realistically you have to subtract 5 or 6 meters. He is still one of the favorites for the Olympics, but nothing more.

It is much easier to qualify in handball, but I feel that concentrating on qualifying in basketball would be a much more „natural“ choice for GB. Basketball should be a much better match.

Germany has to hope to get Hungary and Slovenia. If everything works out perfectly, Germany might be able to finish 4th.

10 medals in swimming? Masse: She isn’t a medal favorite (behind Smith, McKeown and the 2nd American), but we will see. Women‘s 400 free relay: They aren’t a medal favorite (behind Australia, USA and China), but we will see. Kharun: I see at least Milak, Marchand and Honda ahead of him, but he might end up on the podium. Liendo: He could win gold or end up without a medal. Dressel, Milak, Ponti, Grousset and Temple are all at least as likely as him to win a medal. Women‘s medley relay: Australia and the U.S. are pretty much a lock for gold and silver. Canada should battle with China for bronze. 4 medals (Women‘s 400 free, women’s 100/200 fly and women’s 400 IM) should be the minimum. 7 or 8 medals seem like a realistic goal.

1) Depends on how you sort the medal table. 2) Depends on what you mean with „close“.

2 medals for Corbeau seems borderline insane. I think 2 medals in the 4 breaststroke events seems realistic. The only medal favorite is Schouten in the 200 breast and even she could very well end up without a medal (Chikunova (if she competes after all), Schoenmaker, Douglass).