OlympicsFan

I looked at how many individual top 8 seeds (qualification for the final) each nation has: Men: USA: 20 Australia: 10 France: 10 GB: 9 China: 8 Germany: 8 Italy: 7 Japan: 6 Hungary: 4 Canada: 4 Ukraine: 3 Netherlands: 3 Switzerland: 3 Greece: 3 Romania: 2 Ireland: 2 Spain: 2 South Korea: 2 Austria: 1 Lithuania: 1 Brazil: 1 Poland: 1 New Zealand: 1 Number of nations: 23 Women: USA: 25 Australia: 21 China: 15 Canada: 10 Germany: 4 Italy: 4 Netherlands: 4 GB: 4 Japan: 3 New Zealand: 3 France: 2 Hong Kong: 2 Sweden: 2 Israel: 2 South Africa: 2 Ireland: 2 Hungary: 1 Brazil: 1 Bosnia: 1 Poland: 1 Lithuania: 1 Denmark: 1 Czech Republic: 1 Number of nations: 23 Men + Women: USA: 45 Australia: 31 China: 23 Canada: 14 GB: 13 Germany: 12 France: 12 Italy: 11 Japan: 9 Netherlands: 7 Hungary: 5 Ireland: 4 New Zealand: 4 Ukraine: 3 Switzerland: 3 Greece: 3 Romania: 2 Spain: 2 South Korea: 2 Hong Kong: 2 Sweden: 2 Israel: 2 South Africa: 2 Brazil: 2 Poland: 2 Lithuania: 2 Austria: 1 Denmark: 1 Czech Republic: 1 Bosnia: 1 Number of nations: 30

Why can’t they use him in the 800 free relay prelims? GB could probably qualify for the final going 7:06.

Still don’t see how GB could win a medal. I don’t see them beating Canada or China, not to mention both. My ranking would be: Australia USA China Canada GB Hungary Germany Japan/Brazil

Was already waiting for your countdown to continue. Some notes about Germany: a) Salchow already swam 48.3 last year, so it wasn’t a one second improvement for him this year. b) Not sure how much of a boost Winkler will be (if he gets to compete), considering all the trouble and the fact that he is less than 0.2 seconds faster than Armbruster. I also think that Armbruster has to be used in some relay and I don’t think that he will be used in the mixed medley relay instead of Angelina Köhler. Other than that: I think it GB will use Scott on the free leg. I think it would be a big shock if neither the U.S. nor China would win gold. Behind them it could be a 4-way battle for bronze (Italy, GB, Australia, France). Personally I have the most question marks when it comes to France and Australia. My ranking would probably be: USA China GB Italy France Australia Germany Japan

I am a bit disappointed that Märtens won’t swim the 800 free. I think his chances there would have been better than in the 200 back. The 800 free heats are on the same day as the 200 free final, so maybe that was the reason. In the 800 free 7:38 or 7:39 might be enough for a medal (especially if Short isn’t in top shape). In the 200 back it will probably take at least 1:54:50 to medal, which is out of reach for Märtens. At least this way he can fully focus on the 200/400 free double. I also don’t quite get the reasoning why those swimmers who are already there (for relays) and are fast enough to make it out of heats aren’t allowed to swim individually.

I think swimming in college for the next 3 years will give him enough „excitement“. The level in the U.S. is crazy high and most of the top guys are still very young. It will be difficult for him to get around Alexy/Guilano in the 100 free and Heilman/Dressel in the 100 fly. His best shot for an individual spot might be to hope that Dressel dramatically declines (in the 100 fly) within the next 4 years. I think many people would rather win 1-3 relay golds/medals as a prelims swimmer in front of a „home crowd“ than not winning any medals while being allowed to swim individually (for Germany).

I don’t see them as gold medal contenders in the men’s medley relay given their weakness in the 100 fly. They are favorites for silver for me. Gold isn’t impossible, but rather unlikely in my opinion. Qin is the big question mark, he needs to be in top shape for them to challenge for gold. You might be right concerning their chance for gold in the mixed medley relay. Their lineup will probably be Xin-Tang-Zhang-Pan. On paper they are at least even with the U.S., although it is impossible to predict what Zhang will produce in Paris. I still would give the edge to the U.S., mainly because I think that King will be closer to Tang than expected. Overall I still think that Dressel will win more golds than Pan/Qin.

Is that a general rule or only if your old federation refuses to „allow“ the change of representation? I think in other sports the transition period is much shorter. The U.S. is super competitive, especially in the 100 free/fly, but obviously there is much more money in swimming for the U.S. (especially at home Olympics). He could probably go to college and therefore wouldn’t really need any financial support from the German federation. Maybe he won’t swim for Germany the next 3 years and then only compete for Germany in 2028 (assuming that he will be fast enough) if he again won’t make the American team.

Pan at best could win 1 gold (100 free) and 4-5 minor medals (medley relay, 200 free, mixed medley relay, 4 x 100 free relay, maybe 4 x 200 free relay). Qin at best could win 2 golds (100 breast, 200 breast) and two minor medals (medley relay, mixed medley relay). In the end it depends on the criteria you use. How do you weigh individual medals compared to relay medals? How do weigh gold medals compared to minor/total medals? How do weigh world records compared to the overall medal haul?

Not sure if this is a mistake/joke, but if not: He used to compete at German age group championships and always was listed in German age group rankings. His dad is German, not sure about his mother. I think competing for Germany was his plan B. His injury last year threw him back, otherwise he would have had a good chance to qualify for the American 4 x 100 free relay (I think he still owns the American 100 free record for 16 year olds). Maybe he will do a Santo Condorelli and try to compete for the U.S. in 2028. Germany „missed out“ on Jordan Stolz (German dad), Xander Schauffele (German dad) and Colin Heathcock, so this is an interesting „reversal of fortune“ … He could also be an interesting addition for the German 4 x 100 free relay. If he gets back into his top shape, Germany would have 4 guys at 47 high/48 low and the oldest of them was born in 1999.

5 medals would be surprising for Germany. I think 2-3 years medals (Neugebauer, Mihambo, Kaul, Weber, Ogunleye) are realistic.

Germany: No locks, but some gold medal favorites at least Swimming men‘s 400 m: Märtens 10 km men’s open water swimming: Wellbrock 10 km women‘s open water swimming: Beck Rowing men‘s single sculls: Zeidler Athletics men‘s decathlon: Neugebauer Men’s K4 500 m canoeing sprint

Finucane certainly isn’t a lock.

McKeown winning a gold isn’t inevitable. I think it is inevitable that she will win at least 2 individual silver medals (100/200 back). In the 200 IM she could miss the podium (or win gold).

I don’t think that Crouser and Ingebrigtsen are in the same category as the others.

Swimming: Men’s 200 free: David Popovici Men‘s 400 IM: Leon Marchand Men‘s 4 x 100 free: Men‘s 4 x 200 free: Women‘s 400 free: Titmus Women‘s 800: Ledecky Women‘s 1500 free: Ledecky Women‘s 400 IM: McIntosh Women‘s 4 x 100 free: Women‘s 4 x 200 free: Women‘s medley relay: Athletics: Women’s 1500 m: Kipyegon Women‘s 400 m hurdles: McLaughlin Women‘s high jump: Mahuchikh Women‘s pole vault: Caudery Women‘s discus throw: Allman Women‘s heptathlon: Thiam Men‘s 200 m: Lyles Men‘s 1500 m: Ingebrigtsen Men‘s 110 m hurdles: Holloway Men‘s pole vault: Duplantis Men‘s long jump: Tentoglou Men‘s discus throw: Alekna Men‘s hammer throw: Katzberg

Canada already with 24 swimmers who have the OQT (maybe I missed some): Liendo Kisil Knox Tierney Acevedo Kharun Wiggington Jankovics — McIntosh Harvey Angus Branton LePage Pickrem Wog Masse Wilm Ruck Rathwell MacNeil Smith Jansen Savard McMillan Who has a realistic chance to join them this week?

Canada is starting to have some depth on the men’s side. Norman, Liendo, Kharun, Jankovics, Wiggington are all young enough to stick around 2028 or 2032. Too bad that many of their younger female swimmers (Ruck, Oleksiak, Smith, Sanchez) aren’t a factor anymore. Don’t see them challenging for a relay medal.

Even China is lightyears ahead of the British women in the 4x200 free relay. It would probably need a disqualification of China AND Canada for GB to win bronze.

I don’t see how Dawson could be in the medal race in women’s 100 back. She would probably have to break her British record, given that at least the second American (+ O‘Callaghan, if she swims it) will be 58 low as well. I think GB not having anyone in the women’s 100 back final if far more likely than them winning a medal.

1) I wouldn’t say that a medal in men’s 200 back and men’s medley relay is likely for GB. They certainly have a chance, but I wouldn’t say more than 50 %. 2) I don’t think that GB „credibly“ has 5 or 6 gold medal chances in athletics. I think only the following could win gold without it being a big upset: - Women’s 800 m - Women’s Pole vault - Maybe women’s heptathlon (Thiam) - Maybe men’s 1500 m (Ingebrigtsen)

Swimming: GB winning a medal in men’s 100 back/women‘s 4x200 free and to some degree men’s 400 IM (Marchand, Foster, Clareburt) would be Haufe surprise to say the least. Athletics: There isn’t a single track event except women’s 800 m and maybe men’s 1500 m where I would bet on a medal for GB. I absolutely don’t see where a medal in women’s 400 m is supposed to come from …

McEvoy needs to be well below his best to lose? Ever heard of Dressel and Proud?

Australia has a huge gold medal chance in men’s 4x100 free relay? Seems like a long shot, but who knows …

Who is „Jena“ (athletics)?