OlympicsFan

Pan at best could win 1 gold (100 free) and 4-5 minor medals (medley relay, 200 free, mixed medley relay, 4 x 100 free relay, maybe 4 x 200 free relay). Qin at best could win 2 golds (100 breast, 200 breast) and two minor medals (medley relay, mixed medley relay). In the end it depends on the criteria you use. How do you weigh individual medals compared to relay medals? How do weigh gold medals compared to minor/total medals? How do weigh world records compared to the overall medal haul?

Not sure if this is a mistake/joke, but if not: He used to compete at German age group championships and always was listed in German age group rankings. His dad is German, not sure about his mother. I think competing for Germany was his plan B. His injury last year threw him back, otherwise he would have had a good chance to qualify for the American 4 x 100 free relay (I think he still owns the American 100 free record for 16 year olds). Maybe he will do a Santo Condorelli and try to compete for the U.S. in 2028. Germany „missed out“ on Jordan Stolz (German dad), Xander Schauffele (German dad) and Colin Heathcock, so this is an interesting „reversal of fortune“ … He could also be an interesting addition for the German 4 x 100 free relay. If he gets back into his top shape, Germany would have 4 guys at 47 high/48 low and the oldest of them was born in 1999.

5 medals would be surprising for Germany. I think 2-3 years medals (Neugebauer, Mihambo, Kaul, Weber, Ogunleye) are realistic.

Germany: No locks, but some gold medal favorites at least Swimming men‘s 400 m: Märtens 10 km men’s open water swimming: Wellbrock 10 km women‘s open water swimming: Beck Rowing men‘s single sculls: Zeidler Athletics men‘s decathlon: Neugebauer Men’s K4 500 m canoeing sprint

Finucane certainly isn’t a lock.

McKeown winning a gold isn’t inevitable. I think it is inevitable that she will win at least 2 individual silver medals (100/200 back). In the 200 IM she could miss the podium (or win gold).

I don’t think that Crouser and Ingebrigtsen are in the same category as the others.

Swimming: Men’s 200 free: David Popovici Men‘s 400 IM: Leon Marchand Men‘s 4 x 100 free: Men‘s 4 x 200 free: Women‘s 400 free: Titmus Women‘s 800: Ledecky Women‘s 1500 free: Ledecky Women‘s 400 IM: McIntosh Women‘s 4 x 100 free: Women‘s 4 x 200 free: Women‘s medley relay: Athletics: Women’s 1500 m: Kipyegon Women‘s 400 m hurdles: McLaughlin Women‘s high jump: Mahuchikh Women‘s pole vault: Caudery Women‘s discus throw: Allman Women‘s heptathlon: Thiam Men‘s 200 m: Lyles Men‘s 1500 m: Ingebrigtsen Men‘s 110 m hurdles: Holloway Men‘s pole vault: Duplantis Men‘s long jump: Tentoglou Men‘s discus throw: Alekna Men‘s hammer throw: Katzberg

Canada already with 24 swimmers who have the OQT (maybe I missed some): Liendo Kisil Knox Tierney Acevedo Kharun Wiggington Jankovics — McIntosh Harvey Angus Branton LePage Pickrem Wog Masse Wilm Ruck Rathwell MacNeil Smith Jansen Savard McMillan Who has a realistic chance to join them this week?

Canada is starting to have some depth on the men’s side. Norman, Liendo, Kharun, Jankovics, Wiggington are all young enough to stick around 2028 or 2032. Too bad that many of their younger female swimmers (Ruck, Oleksiak, Smith, Sanchez) aren’t a factor anymore. Don’t see them challenging for a relay medal.

Even China is lightyears ahead of the British women in the 4x200 free relay. It would probably need a disqualification of China AND Canada for GB to win bronze.

I don’t see how Dawson could be in the medal race in women’s 100 back. She would probably have to break her British record, given that at least the second American (+ O‘Callaghan, if she swims it) will be 58 low as well. I think GB not having anyone in the women’s 100 back final if far more likely than them winning a medal.

1) I wouldn’t say that a medal in men’s 200 back and men’s medley relay is likely for GB. They certainly have a chance, but I wouldn’t say more than 50 %. 2) I don’t think that GB „credibly“ has 5 or 6 gold medal chances in athletics. I think only the following could win gold without it being a big upset: - Women’s 800 m - Women’s Pole vault - Maybe women’s heptathlon (Thiam) - Maybe men’s 1500 m (Ingebrigtsen)

Swimming: GB winning a medal in men’s 100 back/women‘s 4x200 free and to some degree men’s 400 IM (Marchand, Foster, Clareburt) would be Haufe surprise to say the least. Athletics: There isn’t a single track event except women’s 800 m and maybe men’s 1500 m where I would bet on a medal for GB. I absolutely don’t see where a medal in women’s 400 m is supposed to come from …

McEvoy needs to be well below his best to lose? Ever heard of Dressel and Proud?

Australia has a huge gold medal chance in men’s 4x100 free relay? Seems like a long shot, but who knows …

Who is „Jena“ (athletics)?

I think Netherlands will win 40+ medals. Also: The Netherlands should win more medals than Germany, which would be quite something. I think they already did it at the Winter Olympics in 2018.

Would be great if Germany wouldn’t qualify a single relay. Maybe this would force them to change their funding strategy.

The number of athletes with A standard has decreased by 20 %, although the level was already pathetic in 2021. The goal should be to to get better, not to „only“ get worse by 20 %. Sadly the usual German strategy of lowering the standards to keep the appearance doesn’t work in an international competition. Other countries keep raising their level while Germany is happy telling itself that it isn’t too bad. The same is true for the overall number of medals, somehow it is inevitable that the number of medals keeps decreasing (despite more money), because … reasons. Meanwhile the Netherlands and GB keep improving. Bernd Berkhahn shows that it is possible to develop world class swimmers in Germany, sadly no other coach seems to be qualified. German swimmers have to go to the U.S. (Miroslaw, Elendt, Mrozinski, Varjasi, Selin, Büssing) or Australia (Salchow) if they want to keep improving. Germany should just give all the best talents a scholarship to train in the U.S. (+ enough money for Bernd Berkhahn and his group) and call it a day.

I am not missing Elendt, I just don’t count a time achieved in some obscure Time trial that no one witnessed. In the end Germany can still allow her to compete in the individual event, same is true for Armbruster in men’s 100 fly. Not sure if Germany ever had Olympics with at least one A standard in every event, but I know that Germany had clearly more A standards in 2021 and back then there were also less events without German representation. On the men’s side Germany isn’t that far off. Only in the 200 breast and 200 IM an A standard seemed impossible. On the women’s side however there are tons of events (50/100 free, 200 breast, 100/200 back, 200 fly, 200/400 IM) where the standard was lightyears away. In most of those events there is some talent, but odds are that they will stagnate or regress in the next few years (as usual). 50 free: Jazy, Holt, Boksca 100 free: Jazy, Holt, Boksca, Schulze, Roth 200 breast: Ludwig, Elendt 100 back: Börstler, Seidel, Roth 200 back: Seidel, Werner, Helget 200 fly: Baievych, Köhler 200 IM: Roth, Schulze, Börstler, Benkler 400 IM: Benkler, Kohlmann I am most hopeful for Börstler and Holt, since they both train in Magdeburg. I wish other talents like Ackermann, Kohlmann, Benkler or Baievych would also train there.

16 athletes with the A standard, only 4 women and only one of them in a non-freestyle events. Hopefully Germany can improve to at least 24 athletes under the A standard in 2028. Possible contenders (would be great if anyone else could come out of nowhere to qualify): Men: 50 free: Selin, Salchow, Varjasi 100 free: Salchow, Varjasi, Miroslaw, Armbruster, Wrede, Eidam 200 free: Märtens, Miroslaw, Salchow, Sorgius, A. Schubert, Bäschnitt, Klemet, Peschke, Fritzke 400/800/1500 free: Märtens, Klemet, Schwarz, A. Schubert, Liebmann 100/200 breast: Matzerath, Imodou, De Geus, Biltaev, Engelien, Wendland, Bock, Gräfe 100 back: Passek, Jahn 200 back: Jahn, Büssing, Märtens 100 fly: Armbruster, Kammann, Varjasi, Schulrath, Eidam, Koch 200 fly: L. Schubert 200 IM: Büssing, Wendland, Dramm, Hammer 400 IM: Büssing, Wendland, A. Schubert, Hammer Women: 50 free: Jazy, Schulze, Holt, Boksca 100 free: Holt, Schulze, Mrozinski, Jazy, Roth 200 free: Gose, Mrozinski, Maier, Holt, Schulze, Roth, Werner 400 free: Gose, Märtens, Werner, Mrozinski, Ackermann 800 free: Gose, Märtens, Werner, Ackermann, Baievych 1500 free: Gose, Märtens, Werner, Ackermann 100 breast: Ludwig, Schneider, Schulze, Elendt 200 breast: Ludwig, Elendt 100 back: Börstler, Seidel, Roth 200 back: Seidel, Werner, Helget 100 fly: Köhler, Baievych, Roth, Vandenhirtz 200 fly: Köhler, Baievych 200 IM: Schulze, Roth, Börstler 400 IM: Benkler, Kohlmann, Baievych This time there were 13 events (out of 28) where no German athlete achieved the A standard, hopefully this number will be dramatically lower in 2028. Obviously the goal should be to have at least one athlete with the A standard in every event, but sadly that doesn’t seem realistic. Especially women’s 200/400 IM and men’s 200 breast look like lost causes.

Do you even follow swimming? Please look up the results of the last world championships. When did Italy last go faster than the Chinese time from this year? China, South Korea and Australia should normally fight for bronze. Don’t see how Italy is relevant in this discussion.

Yeah, but Australia should be at least 0.6 seconds faster on the freestyle leg.

I still don’t see China seriously threatening the U.S. or Australia. China should be about 1.5 seconds behind after the first leg and all the waves will make it very difficult to catch up. I think China is a rather clear favorite for bronze, but probably not more than that. I actually think that China could medal in all 7 relays. The men’s 800 free relay should be the closest call, followed by the men’s 400 free relay. There is a chance that only 4 different nations will win relay medals. Especially the women’s relays look super „shallow“, only the U.S., Australia, China and maybe Canada look like realistic medal contenders. No European nation has a realistic medal chance.