JoshMartini007

I knew that Long day...

That's a shame, even more so considering they beat us out to get it. South Africa needs one more person, correct?

The 2019 World Champs have priority over the continental qualifiers (even if the latter occurred first) so if Brazil qualifies here their quota from the Pan American Games will go to the next highest ranked South American nation (Argentina). The same is true for the United States in the 49erFX and Nacra17 and Argentina in the 49erFX.

Looks like they may have split canoe sprint and slalom. Cycling also has a properly done event (only road and BMX freestyle though). Sport climbing only having bouldering is an interesting choice. Also beach wrestling?

I was bored so I tried to see if I can come up with a better system for predicting medals. Places like GraceNote essentially take the top three contenders and give them gold, silver and bronze. That tends to cause situations where a nation with a 50% chance to win say 12 events would be predicted to win 12 medals, but in reality they would only win six. Usually this is masked by the overall medal count, but it becomes apparent if you look at the details for individual sports. Currently my model is quite early in development, it doesn't take into account the maximum athletes per nation in a specific event or the chances of an athlete to fail (DNS/DSQ/DNF etc). It also only currently works for events where you can obtain a score/time/measurement (placing/head to head events will have to wait). Here's a sample of the men's 100m (top 5) that I was using as my test data. Men's 100m Gold - 76.4% - 17.8% - 1.9% - 1.5% - 0.9% Silver - 60.6% - 17.8% - 5.8% - 4.4% - 4.2% Bronze - 46.0% - 14.7% - 9.9% - 7.7% - 6.3% As mentioned above, the United States is currently a bit inflated due to more than three athletes contributing to its chances (removing them manually and redistributing it would give them 73.3%, 53.5% and 38.6% chances respectively).

Cost is a big issue for them. Why bother going if you know you can't win. They'll likely compete for the single quotas.

I guess on paper New Zealand men have a better chance than the women. It'll be interesting to see if they try to qualify in the singles qualifier or if they will skip it again knowing their federation won't accept the quota.

As a reminder, the Worlds hold a higher priority than the continental qualifiers, specifically the North/South American qualifiers which already happened.

The results are on the site, but you have to find them. From the top corner, open up the site map, click on SA Trials Tokyo 2020 and then go to the notice board (not the results).

So apparently the continent quotas are only given if the continent has not qualified a nation

That's exciting (other than the name change for the horse which will no doubt cause controversy).

The direct qualification for athletics is a lot harder this Olympics, Saudi Arabia should still qualify some athletes at the end. For UAE, they just weren't able to qualify anyone in shooting. Saudi Arabia is currently in a qualification position for equestrian so they may qualify at the end of the year.

Some sports are quite lax about minimum requirements. Judo is another sport where athletes not even listed in the rankings can be selected to compete.

Basically there's a rule that to get a tripartite quota in sport climbing the athlete must have competed at the world championships. Since no one did the quotas will most likely be reallocated (or there will be a rule change).

Where did you find those?

We should still qualify, I mean if we can't beat Sweden then we don't deserve to go to the Olympics

.

The final qualification tournament will have an additional individual quota.

No the one that's suppose to be the South American qualification for laser, laser radial and finn.

Does anyone know the status of the 2019 Copa Brasil? I can't seem to find where the results will appear.

India will be allowed to qualify to the Olympics. Also there will be a separate event to determine the quotas so the performances here don't count.

The number of athletes trying to qualify is a lot larger than the number of athletes trying to win a medal. So I can see there being more pressure for officials to do shady stuff.

There's a lot of push back between the sport federations and South Africa's Olympic Committee over accepting/declining the quotas. I imagine the field hockey federation used FIH's top 20 rule as a way to show that their team had sufficient strength to compete.

The main site has it too.

Also shouldn't South Korea face Singapore? They were the second best team while Singapore should be the seventh placed team. Unless they ignore wins/points and only went with point differential.