JoshMartini007

It's hard to say. On paper Peru's men's single sculls athlete is relatively better than the women's lightweight double sculls boat so I would say there's a good chance, but there are other factors to consider. For example, the women's boat is more likely to finish with a higher ranking at the Olympics due to fewer boats participating or maybe Peru wants to inflate its athlete count (or even female athlete count) or due to politics the federation prefers the female boat.

In terms of reallocation, if the LM2x needs to be reallocated it will go to while for the LW2x, the quota will go to

With Ecuador not participating and Panama dropping down to Final C, I think there's a good chance one quota will have to be reallocated. To avoid it we need to have one (or preferably two) nation finish first in two events and possibly we need the results to go in such a way that nations in Final C of the men's single sculls could qualify (this is a must if no nation finishes first in two events).

Day 3 Results (After 10 Races) 1. Yang/Hu - 13 2. Shi/Zhang - 14 3. Mao/Zhou - 24 4. Ni/Yu - 36 Looks like we got a lead change

Pretty much, worst case scenario 2/3 of those nations will qualify. For Nicaragua they need two of to qualify elsewhere as everyone who is qualified in Final B is guaranteed to have a higher placing boat in a different event.

Breakdown of which final each nation qualified to... M1x Final A - Final B - Final C - W1x Final A - Final B - LM2x Final A - Final B - LW2x Final A -

And the repechage changed things up for the M1x. With Panama failing to reach the AB Semis, their chances have dropped to near zero while Nicaragua could make something happen should results go their way.

Pretty much, more specifically they need Cuba or Mexico to step it up in another event (I guess Paraguay too, but it's very unlikely the M1x boat will finish ahead of the W1x boat). Things could switch around for Cuba and I highly suspect that Mexico's Juan Carlos Cabrera took it easy (or he's injured)

I constructed a simulation, but in rowing times can be quite different between heats due to each race having a different strategy. Additionally some rowers may be conserving strength and thus underperformed during the heats. M1x - * W1x - LM2x - LW2x - * Brazil has two boats with the second fastest time and thus must choose one of them. If they choose the LW2x boat the M1x quota will be reallocated to . If they choose the M1x boat the LW2x boat will be reallocated to and the LM2x boat that Peru would have qualified would have to be reallocated as there are no more eligible boats (basically a perfect storm occurred where all the other nations competing qualify somewhere else).

They still need to do the men's single sculls repechage (starts in about 5 hours)

Day 2 Results (After 7 Races) 1. Shi/Zhang - 7 2. Yang/Hu - 10 3. Mao/Zhou - 16 4. Ni/Yu - 24

Day 1 Results (After 3 Races) 1. Shi/Zhang - 5 2. Yang/Hu - 6 3. Mao/Zhou - 7 4. Ni/Yu - 12

Three quotas will be awarded in the lightweight double sculls events

The depth in Asia is quite shallow, at the 2019 Worlds only China, Japan and Singapore competed. It was one of two Olympic events not to be held at the 2018 Asian Games (the other being Finn class) Based on the results, Singapore has a very good chance at qualifying (they finished tied with the Chinese boat) so unless Liu and Lim are no longer competing it would be quite unfortunate for them to not make the trip to Shanghai.

One of the biggest obstacles is some nations wouldn't be eligible to participate in qualification, mostly due to being part of Great Britain and not having a recognized separate federation within certain sports. The other issue of course is it would kill the participant rate of the smaller nations. Though that can be solved by giving every nation 15-20 quotas to use as they like (minus events where a set number of participants are required) and subtract one for every athlete qualified (not including team events)

Qualification system for weightlifting Only some sports/events have a qualification process. Hopefully CGF start to officially release more of them.

South Africa has lowered their strict requirements for qualifying to the Olympics. If a team (or athlete) can show they are competitive then they will accept quotas won during continental qualifiers. For field hockey, they likely used a provision in the qualification document that states nations must rank in the top 20 in order to be considered for a continental reallocation as an argument that the FIH considers a top 20 world ranking as competitive. For water polo, their federation likely used South Africa's performance at the 2019 World Aquatics Championships where the men finished 12th and the women finished 14th as proof they are competitive (even though we all know the truth). Sadly for women's rugby sevens they were unable to place a passable argument. The team failed to qualify as a core team for every world series during this Olympic cycle and the team finished 14th at the 2018 Sevens World Cup and unlike water polo, I imagine the South African Olympic Committee knows more about rugby sevens and whether or not that was a competitive performance.

What does politics have to do with anything? This is about sports. Should Denmark not be allowed to host the men's handball championships because they aren't as relevant politically, yet are one of the top nations in the sport? I also don't mind Austria or Switzerland hosting the Winter Olympics because they too are quite relevant in winter sports. Similarly the Netherlands could host the Summer Olympics if it wants to. We are also talking about a 32 year gap, in different cities so I don't see quite the fuss.

A country finishing in the top 10 at every Summer Olympics since 1992 is irrelevant at the games? Haha...

It's more likely the IOC takes over weightlifting like it did with boxing.

I agree, at worst case scenario, can qualify as they aren't competing in any other events and I doubt any nation will finish first in 3+ events (maybe Mexico?) so first place likely gets a quota. After that it would take a very specific set of results for there not to be a fifth nation. I think we are more likely to see a reallocation in the women's lightweight double sculls, but again 1st place and (at worst case scenario) would qualify, leaving one more spot open.

Actually looking at the qualification document, the quota will be reallocated to the highest ranked boat from an NOC not yet qualified at the World Championships. Only after none remains that a spot would open up at the final qualification event.

Guatemala took a bit of a risk by only competing in the lightweight double sculls events. It might pay off in the women's event, two of will likely qualify in other events so they only need either or to also do the same.

As of last week it's still scheduled to be held though only boats from China are listed on the entry list.

I was talking about the World qualifier, not the Asian qualifier