JoshMartini007

New Zealand are guaranteed the two women's quotas as Australia already qualified the maximum quotas (whether New Zealand accepts them is a different story)

That's not even a huge issue. Events go until midnight at the Olympics, that would make it 1pm Tahiti time, the competition would have already started (weather permitting) by then

Yeah, I have no issue with surfing being in Tahiti, especially given its importance to the surfing world, but I've always been of the opinion that the Olympics were heading towards a host nation rather than a host city. France is a bit unique in that its borders can be found around the world.

Talk about cutting it close. Hopefully they don't have any French judges to keep things unbiased...

For anyone interested, here's what my prediction model suggests on medal chances for each event in athletics. I may have to change to a hybrid model for long distance (5000m, 10000m, walks and marathon) events as quite often the pace/strategy is different in each race. The low number of competitions for some athletes caused a couple of weird results so hopefully they continue to compete in 2020. Below are the athletes with a greater than 50% chance at winning the gold medal in an event. Caster Semenya - Women's 800m - 99.21% Katarina Johnson-Thompson - Women's Heptathlon - 81.91% Daniel Stahl - Men's Discus Throw - 79.45% Kenenisa Bekele - Men's Marathon - 74.30% Yulimar Rojas - Women's Triple Jump - 69.93% Shaunae Miller-Uibo - Women's 400m - 69.11% United States - Men's 4x400m Relay - 64.21% Pawel Fajdek - Men's Hammer Throw - 62.18% United States - Women's 4x400m Relay - 57.65% Will Claye - Men's Triple Jump - 55.80% Malaika Mohambo - Women's Long Jump - 55.50% Brigid Kosgei - Women's Marathon - 52.18% Shaunae Miller-Uibo - Women's 200m - 51.51% Karsten Warholm - Men's 400m Hurdles - 50.75%

Watch the team be called "Olympic Athletes from Россия"

Yeah, I was looking through the rankings and saw China and Ukraine were maybe in trouble. I also thought Qatar was safe, but I decided to check the non-Group A/B nations just to make sure. Looks like China used 5.1 to their benefit.

Nice, much easier than going through the rankings. So Qatar needs one more athlete while Ukraine needs two.

For jumping, does the MER have to be at a Grand Prix Table A or can it be at a Table A event?

They can still qualify to the final Olympic tournament via their performance at the European Championship. They need four of to finish in the top seven at the World Championship.

Do you know if India or South Africa are competing in an eventing event so that they can get their MER?

So assuming there's no big changes on the final day the continental reallocations will be as follows in the women's 49erFX ---> and ---> and in the mixed Nacra 17 Foiling --->

I think I've finalized the code (at least for events with timed/measured results) for the medal prediction project I'm working on. You can see the men's 100m example here Overall I am able to limit the number of athletes from a single nation. Therefore, for the men's 100m it now has three athletes from the United States. Currently the three best performers are listed, but it can easily be changed to the actual team once the selection process is complete. Let me know how you think it looks on the site.

I knew that Long day...

That's a shame, even more so considering they beat us out to get it. South Africa needs one more person, correct?

The 2019 World Champs have priority over the continental qualifiers (even if the latter occurred first) so if Brazil qualifies here their quota from the Pan American Games will go to the next highest ranked South American nation (Argentina). The same is true for the United States in the 49erFX and Nacra17 and Argentina in the 49erFX.

Looks like they may have split canoe sprint and slalom. Cycling also has a properly done event (only road and BMX freestyle though). Sport climbing only having bouldering is an interesting choice. Also beach wrestling?

I was bored so I tried to see if I can come up with a better system for predicting medals. Places like GraceNote essentially take the top three contenders and give them gold, silver and bronze. That tends to cause situations where a nation with a 50% chance to win say 12 events would be predicted to win 12 medals, but in reality they would only win six. Usually this is masked by the overall medal count, but it becomes apparent if you look at the details for individual sports. Currently my model is quite early in development, it doesn't take into account the maximum athletes per nation in a specific event or the chances of an athlete to fail (DNS/DSQ/DNF etc). It also only currently works for events where you can obtain a score/time/measurement (placing/head to head events will have to wait). Here's a sample of the men's 100m (top 5) that I was using as my test data. Men's 100m Gold - 76.4% - 17.8% - 1.9% - 1.5% - 0.9% Silver - 60.6% - 17.8% - 5.8% - 4.4% - 4.2% Bronze - 46.0% - 14.7% - 9.9% - 7.7% - 6.3% As mentioned above, the United States is currently a bit inflated due to more than three athletes contributing to its chances (removing them manually and redistributing it would give them 73.3%, 53.5% and 38.6% chances respectively).

Cost is a big issue for them. Why bother going if you know you can't win. They'll likely compete for the single quotas.

I guess on paper New Zealand men have a better chance than the women. It'll be interesting to see if they try to qualify in the singles qualifier or if they will skip it again knowing their federation won't accept the quota.

As a reminder, the Worlds hold a higher priority than the continental qualifiers, specifically the North/South American qualifiers which already happened.

The results are on the site, but you have to find them. From the top corner, open up the site map, click on SA Trials Tokyo 2020 and then go to the notice board (not the results).

So apparently the continent quotas are only given if the continent has not qualified a nation

That's exciting (other than the name change for the horse which will no doubt cause controversy).

The direct qualification for athletics is a lot harder this Olympics, Saudi Arabia should still qualify some athletes at the end. For UAE, they just weren't able to qualify anyone in shooting. Saudi Arabia is currently in a qualification position for equestrian so they may qualify at the end of the year.