JoshMartini007

Big victory for Tunisia over Egypt. The decider is tomorrow between Algeria and Tunisia. All Tunisia needs to do to qualify is to win a single set.

While I doubt Carboxy-THC gives riders (or athletes in general) an advantage, I can accept it being a banned substance in equestrian as it can pose a safety risk for horses if their rider is high.

By qualifying its third team Kenya can possibly have its largest team ever. With two rugby sevens teams and women's volleyball that's 36 athletes. In athletics they currently are simulated to have 35 athletes if you only take athletes which have achieved the standard. Looking at last year's World Championships they will likely end up with around 40 athletes. They should also have athletes competing in boxing and swimming too. Their record was 80 athletes at the 2016 Olympics.

was leading 2-1 against but China recovered to win the match 3-2.

Even if they lose in football (which in itself would be an upset), their next realistic opportunity to qualify will be a month later in boxing. Regardless, it's a bit surprising that Cameroon hasn't qualified in any sport yet. Senegal too.

Thanks, was waiting for everything to be confirmed. We now have 66 nations remaining.

Not sure what's the point. It's not like Mexico or any other nation would have been more likely than Brazil to achieve the MER during this period. If the FEI forces the issue it'll happen, but I feel what will happen is it will showcase that equestrian outside of jumping isn't as popular in the Americas as FEI thinks.

Depends if they compete as independent athletes. If not, the quotas will be reallocated based on the reallocation process from each sport. So far, Russia has appealed to the CAS, no date has been set.

It'll be mostly mixed team events from what I hear. So even taken to it's extreme there will only be 26 shooting events vs. 19 that was present in 2018. 36 events were present in 2010.

Weird that they didn't put the match between the two strongest nations (Cameroon and Kenya) on the final day. In fact, Cameroon doesn't event play on the final day, possibly making it useless should they win all of their matches.

A.k.a. the pay your way to the Olympics method.

Interesting stuff. There's been a lot of back room strategizing so I wonder if Syria knows this and will encourage some athletes not to participate... Any word on Qatar/Ukraine athletes participating between now and the 31st (or do you think they will go the rule 5.1 route?)

Right now the assumption is the top two athletes of each nation will compete in all events they are eligible for. For athletes like Sjostrom or Hosszu the events they are listed may not match the events they will compete in. Once we know for sure I'll remove them from those events. For Sweden they also have chances at winning medals in the 4x100m free and medley relays which slightly boosts their chances. Overall, the over/underperformance is pretty much due to how well a nation performed in 2019, it doesn't take into account injuries. The main focus is to get all the sports up, but there will be at least one more update closer to the games.

Here are my medal projections for swimming. Unsurprisingly the United States and Australia are the top nations.

Yeah, a 1m platform is essentially diving into a partially filled pool...

Though now thinking about it, a 247 is a pretty high score in women's 1m. That would have placed her in 7th at the World Champs... It could have been a typo...

There aren't any 10m results, those are 1m...

Yeah, the only thing I can confirm so far is that the event did take place. It doesn't help that the South African Swimming Federation decided to take a vacation.

If you discount Nicole's score then Canada finishes with 84.07 points (seventh place). The disaster of a first qualifier from Lisa Ann Carlsen would count as Canada would only have a team of three athletes so no scores would be dropped. The only way to save Canada's quota would be to argue that Walker shouldn't be disqualified.

Yeah, it's pretty sad... Sadly, they aren't the first or last federation to make that mistake. I'm not sure if the people in the Brazilian Equestrian Federation are paid, but if they are then there should be some firings. You can argue that language may have been a barrier (the qualification documents are published in English and French), but Google Translate exists and as soon as you start seeing things like MER in the eligibility section then it would be time to start asking questions.

Now for the tough one, finding the results for the African Championships...

Yeah, the lack of competitions in heptathlon hurts the model. In the end KJT had two out of the three top performances of the year with only Thiam being anywhere close so I'm not surprised she ended up with such a high chance. Obviously not, I'll probably remove those performances when(if?) she competes or she gets dropped due to not participating at the Olympics. Yeah, currently I don't take competition importance into account as it can be quite subjective. Basically, the model acknowledges he can theoretically achieve those results and thus gives him a decent chance. We'll see what 2020 brings him.

Is there a website with results or just the above stream?

You are correct, I misread the wiki page