ivanmar

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

"2. Netherlands will be off from previous speed skating highs"
 
For sure, only in some women's events we can win gold medals, but I'm afraid won't even make the top 8 this time. But I like to be surprised by the short trackers, so who knows, maybe it will still work out well.

What a race, what an Olympics, 5 gold medals, damn  
 
Itzhak de Laat is Olympic champion, I'm gonna read that sentence 52 more times to make sure it's true  

Women's 1500m
Final Results   Antoinette RIJPMA-de JONG 1:54.09   Ragne WIKLUND 1:54.15   Valerie MALTAIS 1:54.40 Full Final Result HERE
 

Would be great if that didn't just come from the skating for the Dutch. You need to extend.
At least snowboarding is probable, remember Nicolien Sauerbreij.  

Does the  intend to sweep all individual event gold medals and then have everyone fall in the relay events?

So boring. Go Canada

3  vs 2  in final A!

3  vs 2  in final A!

And here we go with 15 golds and 34 total medals for , close to the Gracenote prediction that many called unrealistic in this regard

Very sad for Finland especially...

Unexpectedly leaving without medals:
 
 first time since 2012.
 first time since 2000.
first time since 1996.
 first time in all olympic history, counting both summer and winter games.
 
 

IOC reduced number of events and athletes in many great sports. Thats a huge issue that new P. must solve.
Breakdancing is a total mess, total fiasco. 
Surfing is mostly boring to watch but i still liked it.
Skateboarding doesnt need both street and park, only one event is enough.
All mixed events are boring and should be excluded.
IOC must influence general public, not vice versa. 
 

And here we go with 15 golds and 34 total medals for , close to the Gracenote prediction that many called unrealistic in this regard

Here to enjoy the 'white' tears 

Do you know who is this and what this fingers mean? This is Bulgarian boxer Svetlana Staneva, who had Tin Lin as her opponent. Before Tin's hand was raised, Svetlana showed a X sign, meaning "l am a real woman with only X chromosomes".
 
And after this her coach made a protest 

 
 

And now they defeat Busca/Sorribes Tormo (6-1, 6-2) and go to the final!

Well, AINs took three medals today…

Andreeva and Shnaider rolled into final, they are first  medalists from Russian side

Andreeva/Shnaider (first time as a pair) defeat Krejčíková/Siniaková (Tokyo Olympic champions and winners of many major double titles) in two sets (6-1, 7-5) and advance to the semifinal!

Yeah, the usual suspect websites here are suddenly interested in the Olympics as well, because there's drama to be made and 'omg, woke!! woke!!' to be yelled  

The biggest fakenews of olympic story.
 
The far right made it just out of control in brazil.
 
Poor algerian girl.

Andreeva/Shnaider (first time as a pair) defeat Krejčíková/Siniaková (Tokyo Olympic champions and winners of many major double titles) in two sets (6-1, 7-5) and advance to the semifinal!

Andreeva/Shnaider (first time as a pair) defeat Krejčíková/Siniaková (Tokyo Olympic champions and winners of many major double titles) in two sets (6-1, 7-5) and advance to the semifinal!