Ogreman

https://afbc-boxing.com/en/2024/06/19/the-22-african-boxers-qualified-for-the-paris-2024-olympic-games/

 

Source for African universality spots

 

W50kg- Margret Tembo

W57kg- Marine Camara  

W66kg- Ivanusa Moreira 

W75kg!!!- Rady Gramane 

 

M71kg- Tiago Muxanga .

 

Additionally according to the Tongan boxing federation's facebook

 

W60kg-Feofaaki Epenisa .

 

Most notable thing is Rady Gramane because there wasn't orignally a universality quota available at W75kg but clearly one has been created as a consequence of Cindy Ngamba qualifying directly. Zambia, Cape Verde and Mozambique all take universality quotas but at least on the womens side W50kg was the only one with other realistic options with the likes of Haiti and Nepal but perhaps they are covered in the 3 currently unknown quotas. (Having now looked through them I'm dissapointed why this wasn't Susma Tamang  as I don't think Nepal are realistically getting one of these quotas and I thought they had aquitted themseleves well in qualifying.) Tiago Muxanga is a good boxer but there were plenty of other options at M71kg. I was hoping for Nidal Foqahaa  or despite DR Congo already having two quotas I would have loved Steve Kulengeluka  to get this spot after being robbed of the African quota. Makes me think they decided on Muxanga and then at a later point had to allocate a quota at W75kg and had no other realistically competitive options other than to give it to Gramane. Then again, while from an Olympic competition standpoint Moreira and Gramane are undisputedely the right options giving Gramane who qualified directly for Tokyo and Ivanusa Moreira who reached winnable quota fights at both of the world qualifying tournaments isn't ideal and I dont love either of them getting the safety net of a universality quota as that shouldn't really be what they exist for even if they do come from underrepresented nations they both had their chances of qualifying and failed plus both countries had qualified boxers for this Olympics.

Anyway speculating on the last couple of spots I would be surprised if Asian bronze medallist Ali Qasim Al Sarray  didn't get the M63.5kg spot, only other real non African option I can see in that division is Samuel Contreras  (At a stretch possibly Alston Ryan ) but I supect the Americas are getting one universality spot and its probably either Cedrick Belony Duliepre  or Desmond Amsterdam  at M80kg. That would just leave M57kg which could be Allan Oaike  but there are plenty of options. 

 

 

On 6/14/2024 at 1:43 PM, Notredame said:

Do you plan to release a new ranking with only the qualified athletes to the Olympics?

Yes its on my list of things to do. Had a quick look at it after the second world qualifier and I suspect it might take me a while as I have a lot of tinkering to do. Probably will be a couple of weeks till I get round to it so I suspect I'll end up posting them sometime in mid July. Don't hold me to that though, definitely before the Olympic draw happens anyway.

Final Qualification summary

 

	Country	Projected qualifiers	Actual Qualifiers	Total qualifiers
1	Australia	0	0	12
2	Uzbekistan	0	1	11
3	Ireland	5	4	10
3	Kazakhstan	2	3	10
3	Brazil	1	0	10
6	Thailand	1	2	8
6	USA	3	2	8
6	China	2	1	8
6	Turkey	2	1	8
6	France	0	0	8
6	Italy	0	0	8
12	India	3	3	6
12	Spain	0	3	6
12	Great Britain and NI	3	1	6
12	Chinese Taipei	1	1	6
16	Azerbaijan	1	2	5
16	Poland	3	2	5
16	Philippines	2	2	5
16	Cuba	2	1	5
16	Bulgaria	0	1	5
16	Colombia	0	0	5
16	Algeria	0	0	5
23	Mexico	1	2	4
24	Ukraine	1	2	3
24	Jordan	1	2	3
24	Belgium	0	1	3
24	Ecuador	0	1	3
24	Nigeria	0	0	3
24	Serbia	1	0	3
24	Hungary	0	0	3
24	Tajikistan	2	0	3
24	Egypt	0	0	3
24	Morocco	0	0	3
34	South Korea	1	2	2
34	Mongolia	2	1	2
34	Sweden	1	1	2
34	Georgia	1	1	2
34	Vietnam	0	1	2
34	DR Congo	0	1	2
34	Dominican Republic	0	1	3
34	North Korea	0	0	2
34	Venezuela	0	0	2
34	Canada	0	0	2
34	Puerto Rico	0	0	2
34	Japan	1	0	2
34	Germany	0	0	2
34	Norway	0	0	2
34	Refugee team	0	0	2
49	Armenia	2	1	1
49	Finland	1	1	1
49	Cape Verde	0	1	1
49	Kyrgyzstan	0	1	1
49	Slovakia	1	1	1
49	Netherlands	1	0	1
49	Romania	0	0	1
49	Croatia	1	0	1
49	Denmark	0	0	1
49	Mozambique	0	0	1
49	Panama	0	0	1
49	Samoa	0	0	1
49	Tunisia	0	0	1
49	Zambia	0	0	1
49	Kosovo	0	0	1

So Uzbekistan secure there status behind Australia's nonsense total with the second largest squad for Paris after Navbakhor Khamidova's  win combined with Martin McDonagh  razor thin loss. Ireland took their time getting there with plenty of ups and downs but ultimately beat their official target of 8 and hit my and probably the squad's unofficial target of 10 although Kelyn Cassidy's  and Martin McDonagh's losses do still sting. Kazakhstan complete their remarkable recovery from their Asian games debacle to join Ireland and Brazil on 10. Thailand take advantage of a home qualifying tournament and the fortunate reallacation of Chinzorig Baatarsukh's  Asian games quota to Bunjong Sinsiri  to set an impressive total of 8. The US had a couple of very big names (Robby Gonzalez , Jamar Talley ) miss out but utimately should be fairly satisfied with their 8 qualifiers. China, Italy, Turkey and France all conclude succesful qualifying campaigns also on 8 qualifiers although France might be a little dissapointed after securing 7 at European Games and having strong squads at both of the world tournaments to not add further to their tally for their home Olympics. Succesful final qualifying tournaments for Spain, Azerbaijan, Chinese Taipei, Poland, Philippines, Mexico, Jordan all wrap up relatively to very succesful qualifying campaigns while India, Ukraine and South Korea somewhat redeem what had been dissapointing ones up to this point. While Cuba have been hurt by the shift towards gender parity missing out in two of the men's weightclasses to end up with just 5 quotas is still a major surprise. While certainly not Cuba it was a major surprise it took Armenia to one of the very last fights to take a quota and that fight could so easily have gone the other way. Japan join them in the major dissapointment category with just 2 quotas failing to kick on after a very succesful Tokyo. Notable countries who miss out entirely include Iran, Argentina, Greece, Czechia, Belarus (although they only competed at one tournament), Moldova, New Zealand, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ghana, South Africa and Kenya.

 

Continental Breakdown

 

	Projected	Actual	1st world qualifier	Total
Europe	24	22	24	46
Asia	19	20	17	37
Americas	8	7	8	15
Africa	0	2	0	2

I do think it is interesting to have a quick look at a continental breakdown given the uneven number of quotas available at the continental qualifiers. Ultimately Europe prevailed at both world qualifiers and justified their additional continental quotas even in Russia's absence. It was good to see 2 African boxers get over the line here as they had suffered the most from less continental quotas being allocated although its hard to argue they deserve more quotas than they were allocated. Unsurprisingly Oceania didn't produce a single qualifier at either of the world qualifying events.

 

My predictions

 

	Correct predictions	Percentage
European Games	25/44	56.8%
African Qualifying tournament	9/18	50%
Asian Games	18/34	52.9%
Pan-American Games	20/30	66.7%
Pacific Games	12/13	92.3%
First world qualifier	18/49	36.7%
Second world qualifers	23/51	45.1%
Total	125/239	52.3%

 

Well at least I got close to 50% this time around with a couple of mistakes and a few surprise results costing me but I did break 50% for qualification as a whole which while a little dissapointing is fine.

 

The final thing I would say about this tournament is I thought the standard of judging was much improved. After some concerning judging decisions at earlier qualifiers outside of some very close fights which no matter what the decision would have genereated controvversy one way or the other and Thailand getting the typical home advantage the judging was fine and that at least is encouraging for the Olympics. My perception at least was there was much more consensus among judges at this tournament and if they weed out the last few bad judges I really wouldn't be that concerned right now about judging playing a major factor at the Olympics. Refereeing wise there did seem to be an increase accross the board in the number of points deductions dished out but as I explained in great detail at some point in the first world qualifying thread one point deduction basically doesn't matter and there were only 1 or 2 fights in the entire tournament that the final outcome of a fight was actually effected by warnings. 

 

 

Ranking (ceiling)	Country	Boxers still in contention	Current Qualifiers	Ceiling
1	Australia	0	12	12
2	Uzbekistan	1	10	11
2	Ireland	5	6	11
4	Brazil	0	10	10
4	France	2	8	10
4	Kazakhstan	3	7	10
7	Italy	1	8	9
7	China	2	7	9
7	Thailand	2	7	9
7	USA	3	6	9
11	Turkey	1	7	8
12	India	3	4	7
13	Great Britain and NI	0	6	6
13	Cuba	1	5	6
13	Chinese Taipei	1	5	6
13	Colombia	1	5	6
13	Bulgaria	1	5	6
13	Azerbaijan	2	4	6
13	Spain	2	4	6
20	Algeria	0	5	5
20	Poland	1	4	5
20	Philippines	1	4	5
20	Nigeria	2	3	5
24	Serbia	1	3	4
24	Hungary	1	3	4
24	Mexico	2	2	4
24	North Korea	2	2	4
24	Venezuela	2	2	4
29	Tajikistan	0	3	3
29	Egypt	0	3	3
29	Morocco	0	3	3
29	Dominican Republic	0	3	3
29	Ukraine	1	2	3
29	Jordan	1	2	3
29	Belgium	1	2	3
29	Canada	1	2	3
29	Ecuador	1	2	3
29	Puerto Rico	1	2	3
29	Mongolia	2	1	3
29	Armenia	3	0	3
41	Japan	0	2	2
41	Sweden	0	2	2
41	Germany	0	2	2
41	Norway	0	2	2
41	Refugee team	0	2	2
41	Georgia	1	1	2
41	Netherlands	1	1	2
41	South Korea	1	1	2
41	Vietnam	1	1	2
41	DR Congo	1	1	2
41	Romania	1	1	2
41	Finland	2	0	2
41	Cape Verde	2	0	2
41	Kyrgyzstan	2	0	2
55	Croatia	0	1	1
55	Denmark	0	1	1
55	Mozambique	0	1	1
55	Panama	0	1	1
55	Samoa	0	1	1
55	Tunisia	0	1	1
55	Zambia	0	1	1
55	Kosovo	0	1	1
55	Slovakia	1	0	1
55	Austria	1	0	1
55	Congo	1	0	1
55	Dominica	1	0	1
55	Greece	1	0	1
55	Moldova	1	0	1
55	Montenegro	1	0	1

 

This table would probably have been more interesting as a tracking tool over the last couple of days but sure look. The table shows the best case qualification scenario by country. Australia and their Oceanian quotas are now gauranteed to have the most boxers in Paris with Uzbekistan and Brazil the other two countries who will definitely be in double digits with Uzbekistan gauranteed second if Navbakhor Khamidova  can win tommorrow. Ireland could still join them on eleven and are significant favourites in 4 of the 5 fights tomorrow so have a very real shot of at least reaching double digits (and smashing their qualification record of 8). Kazakhstan also have a real shot at hitting double digits which would be a remarkable recovery after getting only 2 at Asian games. France are the last country with a chance to get to 10 which even if they don't quite hit is still a decent return for their home Olympic cycle. The country with their total set at this point that stands out is GB after the most shocking loss of the tournament with Elise Glynn  losing to Marine Camara  today. (They did win a quota with Lewis Richardson ) They have had some dissapointing losses but to be honest 6 quotas isn't that far from a fair reflection of this squad. Other than Ireland and Kazakhstan, India and the USA have the most to gain tomorrow and both still can redeem mediocre qualifying campaigns with 3 wins from 3 tomorrow. I think India can get there, the US will do very well to win 2 tomorrow but like GB if the US ends up with 7 its probably a relatively fair reflection of their squad.

M51kg

Rafa Lozano (13)  vs So Chonryong (9) 

Gan-Erdene Gankhuyag (26)  vs Roscoe Hill (2) 

Mahdi Parvizi (7)  vs David de Pina (31) 

Chunag Liu (28)  vs Amit Panghal (1) 

 

M57kg

Qualified- Aider Abduraimov (20) , Carlo Paalam (1) 

Box off- Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (11)  vs Sachin Siwach (5) 

 

M63.5kg

Qualified- Radoslav Rosenov (3) , Oier Ibarreche (20) , Erislandy Alvarez (2) , Malik Hasanov (13) .

Box 0ff- Alexandru Paraschiv (12)  vs Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (4) .

 

M71kg

Qualified- Zeyad Eashash (2) , Damian Durkacz (10) , Nishant Dev (1) , Lewis Richardson (8) .

Box off- Aidan Walsh (4)  vs Angel Llanos (17) .

 

M80kg

Qualified- Christian Pinales (2) , Weerapon Jongjoho (17) .

Box off- Rafayel Hovhannisyan (5)  vs Hussein Iashaish (4) .

 

M92kg

Victor Schelstraete (14)  vs Soheb Bouafia (10) 

Mateusz Bereznicki (9)  vs Daniel Guzman (20) 

Erkin Adylbek Uulu (19)  vs Loren Alfonso Dominguez (5) 

Georgi Kushitashvili (1)  vs Jamar Talley (2) 

 

M92+kg

Gerlon Congo (13)  vs Fernando Arzola (2) 

Martin McDonagh (11)  vs Davit Chaloyan (7) 

Ayoub Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui (3)  vs Ahmed Hagag (6) 

Stylianos Roulias (18)  vs Dmytro Lovchynskyi (9) 

 

	My predictions
Settled Qualifiers	4/14
Still possibly correct	23/37
Best case scenario	27/51

Well these haven't gone well but somehow I still have a very outside chance at hitting the 50% mark and remarkably I still have a shot at getting the 5th place  box off winners in M63.5kg and M71kg both correct which is bizarre and despite getting both "finalists" wrong I correctly predicted the box off at 80kg as well.

Summary going into the last day

 

W50kg

Nazym Kyzaibay (3)  vs Kang Su Hyang (15) 

Daina Moorehouse (1)  vs Zlatislava Chukanova (9) 

Zainab Adeshina (21)  vs Pihla Kaivo Oja (6) 

Mckenzie Wright (19)  vs Fatima Herrera (18) 

 

W54kg

Johana Gomez (5)  vs Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (6)  (Sorry Josh I was right the second time around.)

Im Aeji (3)  vs Zeynab Rahimova (20) 

Bojana Gojkovic (11)  vs Hsiao Wen Huang (1) 

Jennifer Lehane (4)  vs Hanna Lakotar (22) 

 

W57kg

Alyssa Mendoza (7)  vs Maud Van der Toorn (1) 

Xu Zichun (6)  vs Claudia Nechita (12) 

Marine Camara (28)  vs Jaismine (9) 

Esra Yildiz (2)  vs Nilawan Techasuep (4) 

 

W60kg

Qualified- Agnes Alexiusson (5) , Oh Yeon ji (6) 

Box off- Thi Linh Ha (27)  vs Vilma Viitanen (7) .

 

W66kg

Navbakhor Khamidova (4)  vs Kristina Kuluhova (3) 

Brigitte Mbabi (27)  vs Ivanusa Moreira (15) 

Emilie Sonvico (5)  vs Jessica Triebelova (11) 

Ani Hovsepyan (10)  vs Grainne Walsh (1) 

 

W75kg

Melissa Gemini (16)  vs Baison Manikon (8) 

Maryelis Yriza (20)  vs Hergie Bacyadan (17) 

Valentina Khalzova (2)  vs Shirleidis Orozco (12) 

Citlalli Ortiz (5)  vs Patricia Mbata (11) .

1 hour ago, dodge said:

Jaysus. I was way off there. Cheers

No worries, You should see some of my predictions. Literally the exact opposite of whatever I said has happened in a few brackets.

 

Also, meant to post this earlier this week but with the way swimming qualifications work we should get reallocated the W4*100 free relay before we have to select our squad and as such have 6 relay quotas to work with so if we are smart about it we should be able to select our entire Men's 4*100 medley squad and then just Grace Davison and Victoria Catterson for the womens relays. Mcsharry should be able to swim that 4*100 free and is much faster than Erin Riordan anyway so there shouldn't be any issues there and then we won't have to use Fannon in the mens medley relay or play some very risky game like not selecting Conor Ferguson and just assuming he gets an invitation based off his OCT.

6 hours ago, Josh said:

who are your picks in the Canadian brackets in women’s 54kg and women’s 66kg now that Drabik and Chernokolenko are out?

Jeez I get it wrong once and your making me go and get it wrong again.

So at 54kg the short answer is I don't know. I would have probably leaned world medallist Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg  after Drabik  but Mongolia have largely struggled so I guess Johana Gomez  is the slight favourite but I mean it could be any of the four still in contention with Scarlett Delgado  still very much in the mix and Shera Mae Patricio  as well. 3 50-50 fights to be honest. You have a chance put it that way.

At 66kg it should now just come down to the Kali  Moreira  fight in the last 16. I think Moreira is better but only marginally. But ye I didn't see Mbabi  beating Chernokolenko coming at all  and I have seen her fight before, this wasn't some obscure African boxer with no recorded results. She has impressed here though so you can't rule her out either and look Mai Kito  isn't good but Japanese boxers have proven to be able to cause a shock or two. Or in other words I don't know.

I would lean towards Gomez  and Moreira  but I'm sure those predictions will be as bad as the rest of mine are looking. I've already lost 8 or 9 of my picks, I'm not sure I am even going to do better than  the disaster that was the first world qualifier.

I had been thinking over the last couple of days that this thread had been remarkably civil and quiet for a boxing thread and then one controversial fight and boom, chaos.

So this Aidan Walsh- Yurii Zakharieiev fight. I don't think this was a robbery. It was an ugly ugly fight that could have gone either way but it wasn't a robbery.

I have watched this fight a couple of times now and I don't think any of the three rounds had a clear winner. I think I have settled on Zakharieiev edged the first round and Walsh edged the 2nd and 3rd but it was much of a muchness in all 3 rounds. The only point I thought either boxer definitively got on top was the last minute or so where Zakharieiev tired a bit and Walsh's straight shots started to land.

Look I don't think Walsh could have had much to complain about had the decision gone the other way but there were about 6/7 clean quality punches landed in the entire fight so I don't Zakharieiev can complain much either. I think if you showed that fight to 100 judges 55 or so probably go in favour of Walsh with 45 or so going the other way.

However, I do think two point deductions for punching the back of the head was harsh on Zakharieiev (he did infringe like, just 2 warnings is harsh) but the ref gave that straight back the other way for holding which again can't really complain about. I think the ref in the third round kind of decided he wasn't going to decide the fight by disqualifying either boxer with a third deduction and just left it up to the judges because neither of them stopped infringing.

The other thing I would mention is that while I don't like that it is a criteria judges do sometimes judge fights on who was "in control" of a fight. Its a really ambigous criteria but judges do sometimes use it and I don't think you could argue that that fight was fought in the style or at the pace that Zakharieiev wanted it.

Look if a boxer I was supporting lost a fight like that to Walsh I would be frustrated and like even I get frustrated with Walsh's style sometimes because he is a really clean punch picker when he wants to be but in big fights like this one he just retreats into this ultra defensive style. I get it, it has served him well getting him to the previous Olympics against Ievgenii Barabanov  and winning him commonwealth games against the then European finalists in Harris Akbar  and Garan Croft  but it is tough to watch.

But ye this fight could have gone either way and Ireland have had 3/4 of these type of decisions go against them at previous qualifying tournaments. Like Dmytro Lovchynskii  was a little fortunate to get the decision this morning against Ifeanyi Onyekwere . I'm not saying they even out because they don't really (sample size is too small) but you do win some and lose some. I'm not aware of any official appeals process. The IBA used to overturn 3-2 decisions and they have their bout review thing now which is essentially a sped up version of the same thing. However, not a single fight at any of these qualifying tournaments has been overturned after an appeal.

Anyway the best part is at W54kg Jennifer Lehane  meets Anastasiia Kovalchuk  in what should also be a close fight so we will get to do this all over again on Saturday.

2 hours ago, dodge said:

Indian guy failed a doping test so a new spot was freed up

No there was always 5 quotas for this tournament at 63.5 and 71kg. The Indian that got suspended was Parveen their W57kg boxer and that quota got reallocated to Turdibekova  who was the boxer she had beaten to win that quota.

20 minutes ago, dodge said:

As of now, the only nations that can fill all 13 quotas are

W54kg - Sarsenbek  lost to Patricio  in this afternoon's session.

 

 still can. They don't have a shot at W60kg but they haven't lost here yet.

Guys guys guys, Ok today wasn't great but I feel like we had this exact same conversation at the equivalent point last year.

 

The LM2x will be fine. It lost, not ideal but its fine. It lost last year too. Still the overwhelming favourite for gold in the boatclass.

The M2x is also fine, dissapointing it wasn't here but it should be favoured for a medal along with the Netherlands and probably Romania's new combination. There are a lot of contenders but it is still a favourite right now.

The M2- is injured and finished 6th at world cup iii last year. I don't know if it ultimately medals but it is in the exact same spot it was last year.

Also in the same spot as last year is the W2- which is unfortunate because it looks likely we will finish fourth but it is rare that the Olympics goes exactly to form and we are right there if something goes wrong for one of Netherlands, Australia or Romania.

The W2x is right in the mix although it has underperformed in both finals this year which is concerning but this boatclass is wide open behind the Romanians (assuming they regain their form after a dissapointing Europeans). The US won today, Australia's new double looks impressive, Norway have looked good but I would kind of expect them to regress a bit as the year goes on. Lithuania have struggled this season but could return to form and then there is us. We are on track to make the A final and it is anybody's race from there.

The LW2x, not a particularly encouraging regatta all right but we really aren't that far away and we know how close this boatclass will end up being.

 

For me nothings changed, we have in very similar circumstances won 3 world championships medals in both of the last 2 years. That is still my expectation. LM2x to win gold, M2x to finish second or third and one of the other boats to push their way onto the podium, Maybe it goes wrong but I don't understand why we are expecting it to go wrong given this season has looked exactly the same as last year and fairly similar to 2022 as well.

 

5 hours ago, Pasolini said:

The 4 first seeds will be the continental champions, according to a source - not sure if its true or not, but

https://www.ffboxe.com/des-jeux-pour-marquer-lhistoire/

 

This article on the French federation's site mentions that there will be no seeding at the Olympics.

I would much prefer if your source is right as any seeding at all makes the draw much fairer but I assume that the French federation knows what it is talking about.

Second World Olympic Qualifiers 

 

	M80kg (3,56)	M92kg (4,42)	M92+kg (4,42)
1	Kelyn Cassidy (IRL)	Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO)	Danabieke Bayikewuzi (CHN)
2	Christian Pinales (DOM)	Jamar Talley (USA)	Fernando Arzola (CUB)
3	Robby Gonzales (USA)	Narek Manasyan (ARM)	Ayoub Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui (ESP)
4	Hussein Iashaish (JOR)	Julio Castillo (ECU)	Dusan Veletic (SRB)
5	Rafayel Hovhannisyan (ARM)	Loren Alfonso Dominguez (AZE)	Luka Pratljacic (CRO)
6	Yojerlin Cesar (FRA)	Rogelio Romero (MEX)	Ahmed Hagag (AUT)
7	Ramtin Musah (GBR)	Vagkan Nanitzanian (GRE)	Davit Chaloyan (ARM)
8	Vladimir Mironchikov (SRB)	Sadam Magomedov (SRB)	Petar Belberov (BUL)
9	Mindaugas Gediminas (NOR)	Mateusz Bereznicki (POL)	Dmytro Lovchynskyi (UKR)
10	Juan Ortiz (COL)	Soheb Bouafia (FRA)	Danis Latypov (BHR)
11	Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (KGZ)	Marlon Hurtado (COL)	Martin McDonagh (IRL)
12	Gradus Kraus (NED)	Mucahit Ilyas (TUR)	Narendar Berwal (IND)
13	Gazimagomed Jalidov (ESP)	Sanjeet Kumar (IND)	Gerlon Congo (ECU)
14	Kim Jin-jea (KOR)	Victor Schelstraete (BEL)	Ifeanyi Onyekwere (NGR)
15	Meysam Gheslaghi (IRN)	Marko Calic (CRO)	Nigel Paul (TTO)
16	Andrey Csemez (SVK)	Adrian Paoletti (AUS)	Willys Mendoza (COL) ?
17	Weerapon Jongjoho (THA)	Alexander Okafor (GER)	Rouzbeh Safari (IRN)
18	Go Wakaya (JAP)	Odai Al-Hindawi (JOR)	Stylianos Roulias (GRE)
19	Andrei Arodoaie (ROU)	Erkin Adylbek Uulu (KGZ)	Jonas Jazevicius (LTU)
20	Delil Dadaev (GER)	Daniel Guzman (DOM)	Mukhammad Abroridinov (TJK)
21	Keven Beausejour (CAN)	Yan Zak (ISR)	Keddy Agnes (SEY)
22	Abhimanyu Loura (IND)	Noori  Silab (AFG)	Javier Cruz (MEX)
23	Peter Pita Kabeji (COD)	Serhii Horskov (UKR)	Gilbert Kabamba (COD)
24	Sebastien Terteryan (DEN)	Regarn Simbwa (UGA)	Doni Foreman (CAN)
25	Nekruz Shalimov (TJK)	Jung Ha-Neul (KOR)	Oskar Safaryan (POL)
26	Kristyan Nikolov (BUL)	Ali Fathigovashini (IRN)	Ugur Aydemir (TUR)
27	Taj Kagho (NZL)	Johnathan Tetteh (GHA)	Kennedy St. Pierre (MRI)
28	Hector Aguiire (MEX)	David Michalek (SVK)	Younes Bouhdid (MAR)
29	Ganzorig Dalai (MGL)	Nyamdorj Otgonbold (MGL)	Kim Doh-yeon (KOR)
30	Osaro Aimufua (AUT)	Koppany Feher (HUN)	Byeknur Khali (MGL)

Second World Olympic Qualifiers 

 

	M51kg (4,51)	M57kg (3,63)	M63.5kg (5, 65)	M71kg (5,70)
1	Amit Panghal (IND)	Carlo Paalam (PHI)	Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (MGL)	Nishant Dev (IND)
2	Roscoe Hill (USA)	Rujakron Juntrong (THA)	Erislandy Alvarez  (CUB)	Zeyad Eashash (JOR)
3	Yuberjen Martinez (COL)	Asror Vokhidov (TJK)	Radoslav Rosenov (BUL)	Wanderson de Oliveira (BRA)
4	Kiaran McDonald (GBR)	Owain Harris-Allan (GBR)	Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (KAZ)	Aidan Walsh (IRL)
5	Rogen Ladon (PHI)	Sachin Siwach (IND)	Alexy de la Cruz (DOM)	Yurii Zakharieiev (UKR)
6	Federico Serra (ITA)	Yosef Iashaish (JOR)	Emilio Garcia (USA)	Shamser Shaidov (TJK
7	Mehdi Parviz (IRN)	Shamil Askerov (AZE)	Jose Viafara (COL)	Jorge Cuellar (CUB)
8	Attila Bernath (HUN)	Artur Bazeyan (ARM)	Shion Nishiyama (JAP)	Lewis Richardson (GBR)
9	So Chonryong (PRK)	Samuel Kistohurry (FRA)	Ali Habibanezhed (IRN)	Eskerkhan Madiev (GEO)
10	Kim In-kyu (KOR)	Daniyal Shahbaksh (IRN)	Viliam Tanko (SVK)	Damian Durkacz (POL)
11	Dmytro Zamotayev (UKR)	Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ)	Aleksej Sendrik (SRB)	Sarkhan Aliyev (AZE)
12	Salah Ibrahim (GER)	Jose de los Santos (DOM)	Alexandru Paraschiv (MDA)	Byamba-erdene Otgonbaatar (MGL)
13	Rafael Lozano Jr (ESP)	Yoel Finol (VEN)	Malik Hasanov (AZE)	Kasra Tahmasebi (IRN)
14	Azat Makhmetov (BRN)	Roland Veres (HUN)	Joseph Commey (GHA)	Alexander Rangel (COL)
15	Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (ARG)	Batuhan Ciftci (TUR)	Yaroslav Khartysz (UKR)	Steve Kulenguluka (COD)
16	Luis Delgado (ECU)	Kharkhuu Enkh-amar (MGL)	David Grevorgkian (GER)	Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (TKM)
17	Sakhil Alakhverdovi (GEO)	Van Duong Nguyen (VIE)	Patris Mughalzai (GBR)	Angel Llanos (PUR)
18	Ergunyal Sebahtin (BUL)	Miguel Vega (MEX)	Gianluigi Malanga (ITA)	Deniel Kretter (GER)
19	Ala Eddine Zidi (TUN)	Shukur Ovezov (TKM)	Louis Richarno Colin (MRI)	Gurgen Madoyan (ARM)
20	Sean Mari (IRL)	Aider Abduraimov (UKR)	Oier Ibarreche (ESP)	Frederick Kiwitt (LBR)
21	Theophilus Allotey (GHA)	Lucas Fernandez (URU)	Saparmyat Odayev (TKM)	Tiago Muxanga (MOZ)
22	Bareshem Harutyunyan (ARM)	Tryagain Ndevelo (NAM)	Abdelhaq Nadir (MOR)	Sergio Martinez (ESP)
23	Anvarzhan Khodziev (KGZ)	Caleb Tirado (PUR)	Chol Man Choe (PRK)	Alban Beqiri (ALB)
24	Hamza Esaadi (MOR)	Michele Baldassi (ITA)	Narek Hovhannisyan (ARM)	Peerapat Yeasungnoen (THA)
25	Huthaifa Eashash (JOR)	Pawel Brach (POL)	Cleisson dos Santos (BRA)	Junior Petanqui (CAN)
26	Gankhuyag Gan-erdene (MGL)	O Tae Bom (PRK)	Abhinash Jamwal (IND)	Vasile Cebotari (MDA)
27	Mauricio Ruiz (MEX)	Jean Caicedo (ECU)	Jonas Jonas (NAM)	Merven Clair (MRI)
28	Chuang Liu (CHN)	Ping Lyu (CHN)	Mizan Aykol (TUR)	Miroslav Kapuler Ischenko (ISR)
29	Mohamed Moziane (ALG)	Denis Bril (GER)	Arsen Chabyan (AUT)	Kelvin Soquessa (CZE)
30	Omer Ametovic (SRB)	Armando Sigauque (MOZ)	Chriztian Pitt Laurente (PHI)	Il Hyok Kim (PRK)

Second World Olympic Qualifiers

 

 

	W60kg (3,30)	W66kg (4,37)	W75kg (4,30)
1	Amy Broadhurst (GBR)	Grainne Walsh (IRL)	Naomi Graham (USA)
2	Namuun Monkhor (MGL)	Arundhati Choudhary (IND)	Valentina Khalzova (KAZ)
3	Miroslava Jedinakova (SVK)	Kristina Kuluhova (SRB)	Busra Isildar (TUR)
4	Rimma Volossenko (KAZ)	Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB)	Love Holgersson (SWE)
5	Agnes Alexiusson (SWE)	Emilie Sonvico (FRA)	Citlalli Ortiz (MEX)
6	Oh Yeonji (KOR)	Leonie Mueller (GER)	Veronika Nakota (HUN)
7	Vilma Viitanen (FIN)	Blessing Oraekwe (NGR)	Aziza Zokirova (UZB)
8	Ankushita Boro (IND)	Camila Camilo (COL)  <	Baison Manikon (THA)
9	Felicitas Ganglbauer (GER)	Stephanie Pineiro (PUR)	Rady Gramane (MOZ)
10	Ayaka Taguchi (JAP)	Ani Hovsepyan (ARM)	Seong Su-yeon (KOR)
11	Loredana Marin (ROU)	Jessica Triebelova (SVK)	Patricia Mbata (NGR)
12	Sara Beram (CRO)	Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR)	Shirleidis Orozco (COL)
13	Shoira Zulkaynarova (TJK)	Luna Beeloo (NED)	Karolina Makhno (UKR)
14	Vladislava Kukhta (HUN)	Hwang Hyo-sun (PRK)	Gabriele Stonkute (LTU)
15	Anna Jenni (SWI)	Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV)	Vivianne Pereira (BRA)
16	Aslahan Mehmedova  (BUL)	Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ)	Melissa Gemini (ITA)
17	Hanna Okhrei (UKR)	Sara Kali (CAN)	Hergie Bacyadan (PHI)
18	Camila Pineiro (URU)	Joana Nwamerue (BUL)	Irina Schonberger (GER)
19	Esmeralda Falcon (MEX)	Ganzorig Badmaarag (MGL)	Monika Langerova (CZE)
20	Ana Starovoitova  (LTU)	Saida Lahmidi (MOR)	Maryelis Yriza (VEN)
21	Sheila Martinez (ESP)	Griselda Duran (MEX)	Elizabeth Andiego (KEN)
22	Klaudia Budasz (POL)	Sheilla Yama (PNG)	Ornella Sathoud (GHA)
23	Rashida Tagirova (UZB)	Cara Whararau (NZL)	Erdenatuya Enkhbaatar (MGL)
24	Terris Smith (CAN)	Beatrise Rozentale (LAT)	Deane Reed (NZL)
25	Carolina Ferreira (POR)	Seon Su-jin (KOR)	Duina Martinez (ESP)
26	Tianna Guy (TTO)	Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE)	Aynur Rzayeva (AZE)
27	Thi Linh Ha (VIE)	Brigitte Mbabi (COD)	Kimberly Gittens (BAR)
28	Ragad Alnaimi (KSA)	Krista Kovalainen (FIN)	Eseta Flint (TGA)
29	Teretia Toauriri (KIR)	Nilufar Boboyorova (TJK)	Diem Quynh Luu (VIE)
30	Zann Chee (SGP)	Friza Asiko Anyango (KEN)	Kitija Zaberga (LAT)

Second World Olympic Qualifiers

 

Top 30 per weightclass. 

 

(Number of qualifiers, number of entries) in the brackets.

 

	W50kg (4,34)	W54kg (4,33)	W57kg (4,33)
1	Daina Moorehouse (IRL)	Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE)	Maud Van der Toorn (NED)
2	Rinka Kinoshita (JPN)	Sandra Drabik (POL) >	Esra Yildiz (TUR)
3	Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ)	Im Aeji (KOR)	Jennifer Fernandez (ESP)
4	Nataia Kuczewska (POL)	Jennifer Lehane (IRL)	Nilawan Techaseup (THA)
5	Tetyana Kob (UKR)	Johana Gomez (VEN)	Elise Glynn (GBR)
6	Pihla Kaivo-oja (FIN)	Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL)	Xu Zichun (CHN)
7	Aldana Florencia Lopez (ARG)	Romane Moulai (FRA)	Alyssa Mendoza (USA)
8	Savannah Stubley (GBR)	Scarlett Delgado (CAN)	Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag (MGL)
9	Zlatislava Chukanova (BUL)	Shera Mae Patricio (USA)	Jaismine (IND)
10	Nina Radovanovic (SRB)	Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR)	Satsuki Yoshizawa (JPN)
11	Jung Joo-Hyung (KOR)	Bojan Gojkovic (MNE)	Nikolina Cacic (CRO)
12	Susan Aguas (ECU)	Ulzhan Sarsenbek (KAZ)	Claudia Nechita (ROU)
13	Tayonis Cedeno (VEN)	Ekaterina Sycheva (ARM)	Jin Hyejeong (KOR)
14	Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (VIE)	Estefani Almanzar (DOM)	Guadalupe Solis (MEX)
15	Kang Su Hyang (PRK)	Islem Ferchichi (TUN)	Anastasia Molochko (UKR)
16	Anush Grigoryan (ARM)	Perla Bazaldua (MEX)	Marie Al-Ahmadieh (CAN)
17	Sofie Vinther Rosshaug (DEN)	Marta Lopez Del Arbol (ESP)	Jinhyang Paek (PRK)
18	Fatima Herrera (MEX)	Mikoto Harada (JAP)	Lucie Sedlackova (CZE)
19	Mckenzie Wright (CAN)	Melissa Mortensen (DEN)	Olga Papadatou (GRE)
20	Guo Yi Xuan (TPE)	Zeynab Rahimova (AZE)	Szabina Szucs (HUN)
21	Zainab Adeshina (NGR)	Zeina Nassar (GER)	Andjela Brankovic (SRB)
22	Rita Soares (POR)	Hanna Lakotar (HUN)	Canan Tas (GER)
23	Nicole Durikova (SVK)	Sara Svennson (SWE)	Mahsati Hamzayeva (AZE)
24	Danisha Mathialagan (SGP)	Denisse Bravo (CHI)	Ana Milisic (SWI)
25	Marjona Savrieva (AZE)	Fotima Begmuradova (TJK)	Laura Jakovleva (LAT)
26	Ruhafzo Haqnazarova (TJK)	Angelyris Lopez (PUR)	Josefien Betist (SLE)
27	Margret Tembo (ZAM)	Anjani Teli (NEP)	Minerva Montiel (PAR)
28	Aylin Jamez (GUA)	Amina Faki (KEN)	Marine Camara (MLI)
29	Mihaela Badescu (ROU)	Ornella Havyarimana (BDI)	Feofaaki Epenisa (TGA)
30	Kathreen Sterling (HAI)	Bele phekie (BOT)	Huyen Tran Nguyen (VIE)

Rank (Total)	Country	Projected qualifiers	Already qualified	Projected Total
2	Ireland	5	6	11
5	USA	3	6	9
9	Great Britain and NI	3	5	8
13	India	3	3	6
13	Poland	3	3	6
5	Kazakhstan	2	7	9
5	China	2	7	9
5	Turkey	2	7	9
13	Cuba	2	4	6
17	Philippines	2	3	5
17	Tajikistan	2	3	5
24	Mongolia	2	1	3
32	Armenia	2	0	2
2	Brazil	1	10	11
12	Thailand	1	6	7
13	Chinese Taipei	1	5	6
21	Serbia	1	3	4
21	Azerbaijan	1	3	4
24	Japan	1	2	3
24	Mexico	1	2	3
32	Ukraine	1	1	2
32	Croatia	1	1	2
32	Georgia	1	1	2
32	Sweden	1	1	2
32	Jordan	1	1	2
32	Netherlands	1	1	2
49	South Korea	1	0	1
49	Argentina	1	0	1
49	Finland	1	0	1
49	Iran	1	0	1
49	Slovakia	1	0	1
1	Australia	0	12	12
4	Uzbekistan	0	10	10
9	France	0	8	8
9	Italy	0	8	8
17	Colombia	0	5	5
17	Algeria	0	5	5
21	Bulgaria	0	4	4
24	Spain	0	3	3
24	Egypt	0	3	3
24	Morocco	0	3	3
24	Nigeria	0	3	3
24	Hungary	0	3	3
32	Dominican Republic	0	2	2
32	Belgium	0	2	2
32	Canada	0	2	2
32	Ecuador	0	2	2
32	North Korea	0	2	2
32	Puerto Rico	0	2	2
32	Venezuela	0	2	2
32	Germany	0	2	2
32	Norway	0	2	2
32	Refugee team	0	2	2
49	Vietnam	0	1	1
49	Denmark	0	1	1
49	DR Congo	0	1	1
49	Mozambique	0	1	1
49	Panama	0	1	1
49	Romania	0	1	1
49	Samoa	0	1	1
49	Tunisia	0	1	1
49	Zambia	0	1	1
49	Kosovo	0	1	1

 

Apologies for the weird looking table but hopefully it makes sense. I wanted to include the number of boxers in contention per country as well but I ran out of time. I have Ireland having an amazing tournament but that is very much the upper threshold for Ireland's potential here. Ireland, GB, India, Poland and USA all look likely to have good tournaments here but to varying extents that is a reflection of previous dissapointing tournament(s). Japan, Bulgaria and maybe Mongolia stand out amongst those who may be dissapointed with results here if this scenario plays out but I haven't looked at this too closely yet and obviously its just a projection which even if things go well won't prove remotely accurate.

M92kg

 

Qualifiers- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Narek Manasyan (3) .

Other Contenders- Sadam Magomedov (8) , Soheb Bouafia (10) .

Interesting bracket to start with multi time European medallist starting as slight favourite. He will meet Odai Al Hindawi (18)  or the awkward Victor Schelstraete (14)  in the last 16. Meanwhile recent European medallist Sadam Magomedov opens his account against Nyamdorj Otgonbold (29)  or German based Noori Silab (22) . Soheb Bouafia has to come through Jung Ha Neul (25)  and Serhii Horskov (23)  to meet Magomedov in the last 16. All three of Manasyan, Magomedov and Bouafia will believe they should take this quota albeit Bouafia has lost to the other two. Magomedov’s win over Bouafia was a split decision win in Serbia so I’m not sure it actually means much in this context. I think Manasyan is the favourite here but in 3 attempts going back to Tokyo qualification he has never quite managed to get over the line and reach the Olympics despite his talent and that potential fight with Schelstraete would make me very nervous.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Mateusz Bereznicki (9) 

Other Contenders- Murcahit Ilyas (12) , Adrian Paoletti (16) , Alexander Okafor (17) .

We lack a clear favourite in this weightclass and there are numerous potential outcomes here. Mateusz Bereznicki off the back of an impressive performance at the 1^st world qualifier opens up with a very tough fight against Adrian Paoletti who has a legitimate chance to qualify all 13 weight classes for Australia. The winner of that fight would then meet Peter Alwanga (31)  followed by Alexander Okafor who has had some bad losses of late. On the bottom half of this bracket Murcahit Ilyas makes his return to the Turkish squad after an extended absence. He has two tricky fights between him and the quota fight probably against Yan Zak (21)  and Daniel Guzman (20) . Bereznicki has reached quota fights at both of the previous qualifying tournaments so he seems like the reliable pick to qualify but I’m not sure about this particular one.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Loren Alfonso Dominguez (5) .

Other Contenders- Julio Castillo (4) .

The veteran Julio Castillo has one last shot at making his fourth Olympics and while the draw could have been kinder its not too bad. He starts off with David Michalek (28)  before meeting Erkin Adylbek Uulu (19)  followed by Marlon Hurtado who he has beaten before and as such Castillo should expect to at least reach the quota stage. Loren Alfonso Dominguez has a similar path difficulty wise meeting Johnathan Tetteh (27) , Marko Calic (15)  and Sanjeet (13)  on his way to probably meeting Castillo. Alfonso probably is the more talented boxer and while I hope Castillo can get over the line I will reluctantly pick the Tokyo 81kg medallist.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Georgi Kushitashvili (1) .

Other Contenders- Jamar Talley (2) , Rogelio Romero (6) , Vagkan Nanitzanian (7) .

None of the first 3 brackets were that strong and sure enough the last bracket is nightmarish. Jamar Talley has a straightforward path to the quarter finals with just the unknown Ali Fathigovashini (26)  and probably Regarn Simbwa (24)  in his path. Meanwhile Vagkan Nanitzanian meets Rogelio Romero in a heavyweight (hahaha I’m so funny ) last 32 fight before the winner meets Georgi Kushitashvili who has looked much better at 92kg winning Strandja and only losing to Lazizbek Mullojonov in Busto Arsizio than he did at 80kg at European games. Kushitashvili has beaten Nanitzanian twice already this year and I suspect would also beat Romero. I would give Jamar Talley a legitimate shot at beating Kushitashvili though and whoever wins that fight will be a medal contender in Paris.

 

Projected qualifiers- Narek Manasyan , Mateusz Bereznicki , Loren Alfonso Dominguez , Georgi Kushitashvili .

 

M92+kg

 

Qualifiers- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Fernando Arzola (2) .

Other Contenders- Narendar (12) , Gerlon Congo (13) .

Fernando Arzola has been very flaky since winning silver at 2023 worlds but the draw has seemingly been kind to him here. He opens up against Javier Cruz (22)  before meeting Byeknur Khali (30)  for a spot in the qualifying fight. Narendar and Gerlon Congo have a fascinating opening encounter with Narendar having won this matchup on a split decision when they met last year. Whoever wins would then face either Gilbert Kabamba (23) , Willys Mendoza (16?)  or Younes Bouhdid (28) . Mendoza is a strange one as he replaces Christian Salcedo who would have been one of the strongest boxers in this division at this tournament and I can’t find anything on him, no results, no nothing so . Anyway the likely scenario is that we end up with Arzola fighting Narendar for a quota with Arzola having won this matchup comfortably before.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Davit Chaloyan (7) .

Other Contenders- Petar Belberov (8) , Danis Latypov (10) , Martin McDonagh (11) .

I’ve think I’ve picked Davit Chaloyan to qualify twice before but hopefully third times the charm. He has a tough fight first up against the experienced Danis Latypov before facing Rouzbeh Safari (17)  or Keddy Agnes (22)  if he can come through Latypov. Meanwhile veteran Petar Belberov who replaces Yordan Hernandez  (with the two Bulgarians having beaten and lost to eachother this year) meets the improving Martin McDonagh in the last 16. This should end up being Chaloyan vs Belberov in which case you would have to trust Chaloyan but an upset in this bracket wouldn’t shock me.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Danabieke Bayikewuzi (1) 

Other Contenders- Ayoub Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui (3) , Dusan Veletic (4) , Ahmed Hagag (6) .

Danabieke Bayikewuzi was denied qualification in Italy by a cut and should start off here with a win against Jonas Jazevicius (19) . I don’t know where Ahmed Hagag has been so far during qualification but anyway he is here now and meets Dusan Veletic in a high quality fight. Veletic beat him at European champs with the potential caveat that those championships were in Serbia. Veletic vs Bayikewuzi should be a fascinating fight in the last 16 but I would lean towards backing the Chinese boxer. Recent European champion (beating Veletic in the final) Ayoub Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui has an easier path to the quarter finals meeting Doni Foreman (24) (what happened to Alexis Barriere?) and probably Muhammad Abroridinov (20) . It would have been very surprising at the start of qualification if either of Ghadfa Drissi El Aissaoui or Bayikewuzi missed out but at least one of them will now.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Luka Pratljacic (5) .

Other Contenders- Dmytro Lovchynskyi (9) , Ifeanyi Onyekwere (14) .

This should be European bronze medalist Luka Pratljacic’s quota to lose. He meets Mark Ahondjo (31)  or Kennedy St. Pierre (27)  in his first fight before meeting the winner of Dmytro Lovchynskyi vs African champion Ifeanyi Onyekwere. That fight will be Pratljacic’s toughest as he would then meet has been Nigel Paul (15)  or world youth bronze medallist Stylianos Roulias (18)  for an Olympic spot.

 

Projected qualifiers- Fernando Arzola , Davit Chaloyan , Danabieke Bayikewuzi , Luka Pratljacic .

M51kg

 

Qualifiers- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Rogen Ladon (5) .

Other Contenders- Federico Serra (6) , So Chonryong (9) , Rafael Lozano (13) , Azat Makhmetov (14) .

This should be a competitive bracket with numerous interesting fights. In the opening round we will see Federico Serra face Luis Delgado (16)  and Rogen Ladon faces World youth and European bronze medallist Rafael Lozano son of two time Olympic medallist of the same name who replaces the out of form Martin Molina . Ladon and Serra should come through creating a rematch of their fight at the first world qualifying tournament where Ladon came out on top. The other half of the bracket sees a rematch from Asian games with So Chonryong who went on to win bronze meeting Azat Makhmetov. So could cause an upset in the quota fight but I will back the much more experienced Ladon

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Roscoe Hill (2) .

Other Contenders- Yuberjen Martinez (3) .

Another rematch with Roscoe Hill meeting Yuberjen Martinez who he beat in the quarter finals at Panam games. Martinez was desperately unlucky to not get the decision against Alejandro Claro  at the first world qualifier and given Hill’s shaky form he absolutely has a shot here. The winner of that fight would then face Huthaifa Eshish (25)  or Ergunyal Sebahtin (18)  for a spot in the quarter final. I’m happy with this draw for Sean Mari (20)  given he was never likely to qualify and he at least gets a couple of easy fights before meeting Gan-erdene Gankhuyag (26)  for a spot in the quota fight. Roscoe Hill or Martinez would be massive favourites but Hill has bottled two quota fights in which he was favoured already so you never know.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Mahdi Parvizi (7) .

Other Contenders- Salah Ibrahim (12) , Dmytro Zamotayev (11) , Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (15) .

By far the most open bracket in this draw with a lot of potential scenarios here. Dmytro Zamotayev is probably the most established boxer in this bracket and he opens his account against Mohamed Moziane (29)  before a tough fight against Ramon Nicanor Quiroga. He would then face either David de Pina (31)  or Omer Ametovic (30)  for a spot in the quarter final. Meanwhile the top of this bracket sees Salah Ibrahim meet Mahdi Parvizi who is very inexperienced but took a couple of impressive wins at the great silk way tournament in Azerbaijan a couple of months ago. The winner of that fight would then meet Hamza Esaadi (24)  for a place in the quarter final. In a bracket lacking top class boxers I am going to back the potential of Parvizi but if it does end up coming down to the more established European boxers, Zamotayev has beaten Ibrahim in the past.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Amit Panghal (1) .

Other Contenders- Kiaran Macdonald (4) .

After Deepak  underperformed at the previous qualifiers India return to their 2019 world silver medallist Amit Panghal. His first fight will likely be against Mauricio Ruiz. Kiaran MacDonald is a very good boxer but unfortunately the draw has just not broken his way at any of these qualifying tournaments and he will likely miss the Olympics despite only losing to major medal contenders. MacDonald has a tricky opening fight against Kim Inkyu (10)  to set up a last 16 fight with Amit. Attila Bernath (8)  is the favourite to meet Amit in that quarter final but an array of boxers with the potential to cause an upset including Theophilus Allotey (21) , Anvarzhan Khodzhiev (23) and one of Ala Eddine Zidi (19) , Baresham Harutyunyan (22) and newcomer Chunag Liu (28)  lie in Bernath’s path.

Projected Qualifiers- Rogen Ladon , Roscoe Hill , Mehdi Parvizi , Amit Panghal .

 

M80kg

 

Qualifiers- 3

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick-Kelyn Cassidy (1) 

Other Contenders- Christian Pinales (2) , Juan Ortiz (10) .

So surprisingly no 2021 world silver medallist Aleksei Alfiorau  so Kelyn Cassidy inherits the top placed ranking for this draw. The draw isn’t terrible but it could have been a lot better for Cassidy with a tricky enough opening round fight against Delil Dadaev (20)  followed by either Kristyan Nikolov (26)  or youngster Abhimanyu Loura (22)  before a meeting with Olympian Gazi Jalidov (13) . On the other side of the bracket Christian Pinales returns after missing the first world qualifier and should comfortably make the last 16 where he will meet Juan Ortiz who impressed at the first qualifier but is unlikely to beat Pinales. Cassidy vs Pinales should be a cracking fight but I do think Cassidy’s counterpunching abilities should allow him to prevail but make no mistake Pinales is a very good boxer.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Rafayel Hovhannisyan (5)

Other Contenders- Kim Jin Jea (14) , Meysam Geshalghi (15) .

A much weaker bracket than the top one and as a result there is a quota that is there for the taking. Meysam Geshlaghi and Kim Jin Jea will meet first up which would have been a great fight to see as it may have set a record for most punches thrown in a fight with both boxers very willing to just stand and throw. The winner will face Sebastien Terteryan (24)  who is attempting to join is twin brother Nicolai  in Paris but as such is competing way above his natural weight and Geshlaghi or Kim are not the type of opponent Terteryan would have wanted to see. The victor of that fight would then face Ganzorig Dalai (29)  or recent 75kg African champion Edwin Okongo’O (33)  for a spot in the quarter final. The other side of the draw is fairly straightforward for 2022 86kg European silver medallist Rafayel Hovhannisyan whose toughest early fight will be in the last 16 against either Keven Beausejour (21)  who he beat last time or Go Wakaya (18) . Hovhannisyan is the safest pick here and if he could then get over the line this would somewhat redeem what has been a terrible qualification campaign for Armenia.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Hussein Iashaish (4) .

Other Contenders- Yojerlin Cesar (6) , Gradus Kraus (12) .

2022 Asian champion and two time Olympian Hussein Iashaish is in a strong position to at least make the semis. Noa Hadjit (38)  and either Nekruz Salimov (25)  or Andrei Aradoaie (19)  are Iashaish’s early matchups and none of them should trouble him. At the top of this draw  recent European bronze medallist Yojerlin Cesar meets Taj Kagho (27)  and Hector Aguirre (28)  to set up a likely last 16 fight with Gradus Kraus. That fight will be an interesting style mismatch with the technician Cesar up against the bruiser in Kraus. Kraus rarely wins these type of fights though. Iashaish will be severely tested by Cesar but I will back the more experienced individual and go with Iashaish

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Robby Gonzalez (3) .

Other Contenders- Ramtin Musah (7) , Vladimir Mironchikov (8) , Mindaugas Gediminas (9) , Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (11) .

It is last chance saloon for 2021 world champion Robby Gonzales. He should meet a boxer he beat on his way to that world title in bronze medallist Vladimir Mironchikov in the last 32 provided Mironchikov can beat home boxer Weerapon Jongjoho. Joining him in the last 16 will be either Andrej Csemez (16)  who beat him in Busto Arsizio, Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu who also was beaten by Gonzales at 2021 worlds or Ramtin Musah who is a quality boxer and replaces Taylor Bevan  after Bevan’s disappointing first world qualifier. Musah is probably the strongest of the 3 and given Gonzales’ dodgy form I wouldn’t be surprised if Musah then beat Gonzales although Gonzales did beat him when they met last year. At the top of this bracket Mindaugas Gediminas has to navigate matchups with Erik Mendoza (31) , Yusuf Changalawe (34)  and African champion Peter Pita (23)  to reach the quarter finals where he is unlikely to beat Gonzales.

Box offs

Kelyn Cassidy vs Rafayel Hovhannisyan, Hussein Iashaish vs Robby Gonzales

Cassidy Hovhannisyan would be a rematch of a fight from the first world tournament where Cassidy won comfortably and if Cassidy does lose it will be before this point. Similarly if Gonzales gets this far he will qualify. That would leave Hussein Iashaish facing Rafayel Hovhannisyan who similar to Yojerlin Cesar I would like to back Hovhannisyan but I think Iashaish’s experience should prevail.

Predicted Quotas- Kelyn Cassidy , Robby Gonzales  and Hussein Iashaish .

 

Predictions part two (W50kg, W60kg, W75kg, M51kg, M80kg, M92kg, M92+kg)

 

W50kg

 

Qualifiers- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Natalia Kuczewska (4) .

Other Contenders- Nazym Kyzaibay (3) , Tetyana Kob (5) , Savannah Stubley (8) .

Interesting bracket this one. Kazakhstan return to their Asian games selection Nazym Kyzaibay after Alua Balkibekova  disappointed in Busto Arsizio. Kyzaibay is a former Asian bronze medallist but I’m not that confident in her abilities. She has a tough last 32 fight against Jung Joohyung (11)  who lost to Balkibekova at the first would qualifying tournament. She would then face the winner of Savannah Stubley vs 2022 world youth silver medallist Sofie Rosshaug (17) . Kyzaibay should at least reach a quota fight but I would give Stubley a legitimate shot against her. Meanwhile Tetyana Kob meets Natalia Kuczewska. Kob seems to be past her best and lost a split decision to Kuczewska in Hungary earlier this year. The winner would then face either Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (14)  (who surprisingly got selected over world silver medallist Thi Tham Nguyen  although injury may have been a factor) and Kang Su Hyang (15)  who like the other North Koreans, it is unclear how good she is. If indeed we do get Kyzaibay vs Kuczewska for a ticket to Paris, I honestly have no idea who would win that one.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Daina Moorehouse (1) .

Other Contenders- Rinka Kinoshita (2) .

This draw could have been worse for Daina Moorehouse but obviously drawing Rinka Kinoshita isn’t ideal. Moorehouse opens her account with Anush Grigoryan (16)  before a straightforward last 16 fight. The most interesting fight early in this bracket is Tayonis Cedeno (13) vs Zlatislava Chukanova (9)  who are both talented but not quite good enough to make the Olympics. The winner would then face Rinka Kinoshita. For me Kinoshita and Moorehouse are the two strongest boxers here in this weightclass and they should produce a cracking fight. Kinoshita does start with a significant height and reach advantage but having fallen agonisingly short at the two previous qualifying tournaments I’ll back Moorehouse to get over the line here.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Phila Kaivo Oja (6) .

Other Contenders- Guo Yi Xuan (20) , Zainab Adeshina (21) .

Pilha Kaivo Oja might well have gotten the best draw of anyone at this tournament. Her only challenges come against Guo Yi Xuan in the last 32 and then either recent African silver medallist Zainab Adeshina or Marjona Savrieva (25)  in the subsequent qualifying match. Kaivo Oja hasn’t yet won a fight at either of the qualifying tournaments so far but should comfortably win the quota here.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Aldana Florencia Lopez (7) .

Other Contenders- Nina Radovanovic (10) , Susan Aguas (12) .

The bottom two brackets in this draw really aren’t very strong but I guess it is good to see two relatively smaller boxing countries have a great chance of qualifying. Aldana Florencia Lopez at least has a couple of potential hurdles opening her account against Mckenzie Wright (19)  before meeting Olympian and European bronze medallist Nina Radovanovic in the last 16. The other half of the bracket will likely be decided by a last 16 fight between Susan Aguas and Fatima Herrera (18)  both of whom Florencia Lopez should be much too good for.

 

Quota predictions- Natalia Kuczewska , Daina Moorehouse , Pihla Kaivo Oja , Aldana Florencia Lopez .

 

W60kg

 

Qualifiers- 3

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Namuun Monkhor (2) .

Other Contenders- Rimma Volossenko (4) , Agnes Alexiusson (5) , Ankushita Boro (8) , Felicitas Ganglbauer (9) .

Unsurprisingly given this weightclass has already allocated the most quotas so far, this division is a little barren at this tournament although I am still a little bit surprised that there are only 30 entries and there is a serious lack of depth beyond the top 10 or so. Then again this top bracket is quite strong with a number of interesting fights. Agnes Alexiusson should cruise to the quarter finals with Rashida Tagirova (23)  the only potential resistance. Two intriguing fights on the other side of the draw sees Felicitas Ganglbauer meet Rimma Volossenko and Namuun Monkhor meet Ankushita who has moved down from 66kg. While there is certainly potential for upsets in both fights I would expect Volossenko and Monkhor to meet in the last 16. Volossenko did win this matchup when they met 3 years ago but Monkhor’s recent form is I think more impressive although I may be overthinking that a bit. Both Monkhor and Volossenko have beaten Alexiusson and therefore should go on to make the semifinals.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick-Miroslava Jedinakova (3) .

Other Contenders- Ayaka Taguchi (10) , Sara Beram (12) .

This bracket is a little bit more straightforward with Ayaka Taguchi and Sara Beram replaying a fight from Busto Arsizio which Taguchi won on that occasion. The winner would then face Miroslava Jedinakova who was the unfortunate boxer who made the semis but missed out on a quota at the first world qualifier. A last 16 fight between Camila Pineiro (18)  and Ana Starovoitova (20)  should decide who Jedinakova would then face in the quarter finals and both would be much easier to beat than Taguchi or Beram.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Vilma Viitanen (7) .

Other Contenders- Loredana Marin (11) , Shoira Zulkaynarova (13) , Vladislva Kukhta (14) , Anna Jenni (15) , Hanna Okhrei (17) .

Well well, what a selection of mediocrity. Vilma Viitanen made the surprising decision to move up to Lightweight for the final qualifier although given this draw that decision may pay off for her. Her last 16 fight will be against either Shoira Zulkaynarova who is coming down from the other direction weight wise and may pose a threat physically or Hanna Okhrei. On the other side of the bracket Loredana Marin faces Vladislava Kukhta in what to be fair is an interesting fight with Anna Julia Jenni awaiting the winner provided she can beat Klaudia Budasz (22) . I would expect this quarter final to end up being Viitanen vs either Marin or Kukhta.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick-Amy Broadhurst (1) . (That just looks wrong)

Other Contenders- Oh Yeonji (6)  (I mean not really but I feel like I should put someone here).

So Amy Broadhurst’s (from now on will be referred to as the traitor) defection to the Brits has made this division much more interesting from an Olympic medal perspective and she should not have any trouble qualifying from this tournament. I thought the traitor would have been the favourite for gold in this division had Ireland picked her over Kellie Harrington  so I don't really see how I can not still think that just because she is representing the most despicable country of all. She unfortunately is probably going to save British boxing funding because their other medal chances are slim (I'm sure GB boxing will claim credit for Cindy Ngamba  as well if she makes the podium.). Anyhow, The traitor meets Sheila Martinez (21)  followed by Aslahan Mehmedova (16)  or Terris Smith (24)  in what will both be very one sided fights. Meanwhile Oh Yeonji should beat Tokyo Olympian Esmeralda Falcon (19)  but is unlikely to trouble the traitor.

 

Box-offs

 

Namuun Monkhor vs Miroslava Jedinakova, Vilma Viitanen vs the traitor.

 

I’m not sure who wins between Monkhor and Jedinakova but I’ll lean Monkhor although I would back either to then beat Viitanen.

 

Projected qualifiers- Namuun Monkhor , Amy Broadhurst , Miroslava Jedinakova .

 

 

W75kg

 

Qualifiers- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Busra Isildar (3) .

Other Contenders- Rady Gramane (9) , Baison Manikon (8) .

All of the top boxers have already qualified in this weight class which has lead to a number of quite open brackets for this tournament. Recent European medallist Busra Isildar will meet Melissa Gemini (16)  in the last 16 for a spot in the qualifying fight. 2022 world bronze medallist Rady Gramane will meet an opponent she beat at that tournament in Seong Su Yeon (10) . She would then face either hometown hopeful Baison Manikon or Gabriele Stonkute (14) . I think Isildar is the more talented and should qualify but Gramane is more proven.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Love Holgersson (4) .

Other Contenders- Veronika Nakota (6) , Aziza Zokirova (7) .

Another open bracket pitting the experienced Love Holgersson against the 2022 70kg world youth finalists Veronika Nakota (gold) and Aziza Zokirova (silver). Holgersson meets Nakota first before facing Hergie Bacyadan (17)  if she can win against Nakota. Aziza Zokirova only needs to beat Maryelis Yriza (20)  to reach the quarter finals. I’m picking the experience over the youth as I think it is slightly too soon for Nakota or Zokirova but if things fully click for either of them, Holgersson is eminently beatable.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Valentina Khalzova (2) .

Other Contenders- Karolina Makhno (13) , Shirleidis Orozco (12) .

Once again a fairly open and somewhat difficult to project bracket. Straight off the bat Valentina Khalzova meets Karolina Makhno with the more established Kazakh having the more impressive recent form. Shirleidis Orozco is a newcomer to the Colombian squad and is seemingly the pick of the bottom half of this bracket although she will have to conquer Monika Langerova (19)  or Ornella Sathoud (22) . It would be a big shock if Orozco went on to beat Khalzova though.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Citlalli Ortiz (5) 

Other Contenders- Naomi Graham (1) , Patricis Mbata (11) .

Another interesting bracket in what seems to have been a very even draw in this weight class. Former world medallist Naomi Graham looks past her best and doesn’t have the easiest of openers against Viviane Pereira (15)  followed by an equally tricky fight against Patricia Mbata. If Graham can refind her form somewhat and win those first two fights she would then meet Citlalli Ortiz assuming Irina Schonberger (18)  or Elizabeth Andiego (21)  don’t cause an upset. Citlalli Ortiz upset the form guide by comfortably beating Graham at Panam games but she hasn't backed that level up with her performances since. It is possible Graham could avenge that result but given the margin of victory on that occasion I don’t think Graham is making it back to the Olympics.

Projected qualifiers-Busra Isildar , Love Holgersson , Valentina Khalzova , Citlalli Ortiz .