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Rafa Maciel

Totallympics Medallist
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Everything posted by Rafa Maciel

  1. Undisputed? That's stretching your credibility just a bit - remind me which European nation was the only one to qualify for Olympics at the 1st opportunity cos it certainly wasn't Italy . Don't get me wrong - a great result for the Italian guys but they barely scraped home against a seriously weakened Team GB.
  2. Wonder what Dave Murdoch was thinking as he was watching on in his new Team Canada uniform.
  3. Watching the GB trials this evening I see British Swimming have gone a bit nuts with their qualifying times for the World Champs - their qualifying time for the men's 100m was faster than the current British Record - so although we've had a few swimmers who have hit the official Olympic qualifying time, I don't think any of them will have hit the GB standard yet.
  4. The LTA and Wimbledon took a decision last year to ban Russian and Belarussian athletes from taking part - and have reversed their decision this year - but it was ultimately their decision and not the government's. So with the exception of the women's boxing world champs which events have Team GB boycotted?
  5. I wonder if the IOC plan is ultimately to say that they will let Russian and Belarussian athletes compete but with conditions in place that neither country will accept so that ultimately Russia and Belarus refuse to participate. That would allow the IOC to claim to have the moral high ground.
  6. Tennis is often used as the example of Russian and Belarussian athletes playing under a neutral flag but from my reading of the qualification criteria, athletes from neither nation would be able to compete at Olympics because their nations have been suspended by the ITF and therefore fall foul of the requirement to be in good standing. Additionally, they have been banned from participating in Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup. Even if the ban was lifted at the end of the year, I'm not sure they would have the time to meet the participation requirements.
  7. With the final results in from Tblisi now in, the qualification tracker as at the end of March is below: This is only represents the direct quotas
  8. We're rapidly approaching the conclusion of the first qualification period for the judo team so thought it would be good idea to take stock of progress. Men's 60Kg: (Target Total* - 2360) 4 active judokas with 2 worth watching: Samuel Hall - (Points Total: 295) Should be a strong bet for qualification given his world ranking of 39 but so far he has only competed twice in this weight class during the qualification window. Not sure if he is injured or is looking to make a late push for points. I am assuming he's not injured as he has competed 3 times in the 66Kg weight division. He is currently listed as taking part in the Antalya GS next month but that could still change. At the moment, he is around 220-230 points adrift of direct qualification spot. Qualification Ranking: 46 Adjusted Ranking: 22 Joshua Giles - (Points Total: 135) Has competed in 6 events so far at the Continental Open and Grand Prix level. His best result was runner-up at the Cluj-Napoca European Open and last 16 at the Portugal GP. His next discard score will be 3 points so plenty of room for him to improve but would be good to see him in Grand Slam action if he is looking to make serious attempt to qualify for Paris. Qualification Ranking: 74 Adjusted Ranking: 36 Men's 66Kg: (Target Total* - 2390) 7 active judokas: Michael Fryer - (Points Total: 313) With a world ranking of 70, he has competed 6 times so far including at Grand Slam level. Has struggled to make it passed first round unfortunately. His best result came at the Perth Open where he finished 3rd. His next discard score will be 5 points he has a good chance of being able to increase that score before the end of the first qualification period. Currently around 300 points short of direct qualification. Qualification Ranking: 49 Adjusted Ranking: 26 Charlie Young - (Points Total: 188) Has competed in 5 events - although no Grand Slams so far. That could change next month as he is listed as entrant for Antalya GS. He won the Rome European Open and has a couple of last 16 appearances at Grand Prix level but would need a big step up in performance if he is to make it to Paris. Qualification Ranking: 68 Adjusted Ranking: 36 Men's 73Kg: (Target Total* - 2790) Eric Ham - (Points Total - 418) Has competed in 10 events but hasn't really made huge impact with 3 events where he has failed to win his first bout so came away with just participation points. His best result so far has been a 3rd place finish at the Perth Open. His next discount score will be 18 and he is scheduled to take part in Antalya. If he can get through his first bout, then he will be able to build his score but he needs a decent/lucky draw for that to happen. He needs around 220 points to make it to direct qualification spot. Qualification Ranking: 35 Adjusted Ranking: 26 Men's 81Kg: (Target Total* - 2650) Lachlan Moorhead - (Points Total: 696) If there was a prize for the most frustrating performer in the GB Judo Team, I'd think it would go to Moorhead. On his day, he can be great, but he has been very inconsistent. He has a world ranking of 25 - the highest for any of our male judoka. He's competed in 13 events so far and whilst he has picked up a couple of 3rd places at GP level and banked some good points at Worlds and Masters, he has also failed to win his first bout on 3 occasions. His next discount score is 60, so in order to move his score up, he is going to need to get to last 16 of Antalya GS next month. Despite all that, IJF currently have Moorhead down as a Continental Quota and he is about 40 points shy of the last direct qualification spot. Qualification Ranking: 23 Adjusted Ranking: 19 Men's 90Kg: (Target Total* - 2950) Jamal Petgrave - (Points Total: 645) Like Moorhead, Petgrave has racked up a lot of competition during the qualification window with 12 tournaments entered. His best result has been a couple of 3rd places. On the upside, he generally wins his first bout - he's only failed to do so once in the qualification window - but the downside is that he generally bows out in the round of 32 or round of 16 of the big tournaments so hasn't been able to drive his score forward. His next discount score will be 60 so he will need to get to last 16 of Antalya to increase his points total and even then it would only be an increase of 20 points. Unfortunately, Petgrave has just slipped out of direct qualification following results at Tblisi Qualification Ranking: 23 Adjusted Ranking: 19 Men's 100Kg: (Target Total* - 2400) Rhys Thompson - (Points Total: 381) Thompson has barely won a match during the qualification window. He's competed in 8 tournaments so far and has lost his opening bout on 5 occasions. In 2 tournaments he won 1 match and then lost. His score is pretty much entirely down to his victory at the Perth Open where he picked up 350 points. His next couple of discard scores will be 5 points so if he could string a couple of good results together we could see him make some progress on his qualification score. Thompson is currently around 300 points outside of direct qualification. Qualification Ranking: 36 Adjusted Ranking: 28 Harry Lovell-Hewitt - (Points Total: 236) Lovell-Hewitt has competed in 6 tournaments and has had some decent results at the European Open level after claiming runner-up spot in both Rome and Sofia. At Grand Slam level, he has been fairly consistent in getting through to the round of 16. He has a couple of 3 pointers that will be his next discard and he is due to compete in Antalya next month so we could see his points total moving towards 300 figure but it will still leave him well short of direct qualification spots. Qualification Ranking: 49 Adjusted Ranking: 34 Men's +100Kg: (Target Total* - 2300) Wesley Greenidge - (Points Total: 41) Has competed in 4 events and lost opening bout in 2 tournaments. When he does get through the first round he tends to perform not too bad with a third place finish in Warsaw and a 7th place in Cluj-Napoca European Open. Qualification Ranking: 97 Adjusted Ranking: 54 Women's 48Kg: (Target Total* - 2250) Amy Platten - (Points Total: 318) Has competed in 8 events across Continental Open, GP and GS level. Seems to struggle at the bigger tournaments - she hasn't won a match at GP or GS level in 4 attempts however at the continental level, she has a couple of third places. The majority of her points total comes from being runner up at the Perth Open. She is about 200 points shy of direct qualification. Qualification Ranking: 43 Adjusted Ranking: 27 Women's 52Kg: (Target Total* - 2780) Chelsie Giles - (Points Total: 2185) Don't think I am putting my neck out too far by saying Giles is probably the first of our nailed on certain qualifiers. Currently ranking 1 in the world. She's competed 5 times within the window - her only blip was a first round defeat at the Hungary grand slam, but since then, she has won both the Tel Aviv grand slam and Portugal grand prix, was runner up at the Masters and at World Champs. She's next up at Antalya so expect her points total to take another jump next month. Qualification Ranking: 3 Adjusted Ranking: 3 Women's 52Kg: (Target Total* - 2780) Probably our most competitive weight class with 3 judoka in the race for qualification. Lele Nairne - (Points Total: 979) Wasn't a name I was familiar with before this year, but she has competed in 8 events and has racked up some decent performances - runner up at the Perth Open, 7th place at the Masters and 5th place at Baku GS. She is currently in a direct qualification spot Qualification Ranking: 14 Adjusted Ranking: 13 Nekoda Smythe-Davis - (Points Total: 570) Missed the Tokyo Olympics due to pregnancy, is quickly becoming poster girl for mums returning to sport. Has entered 6 events and has won the Riccione Open, was third at Portugal GP and has a couple of 7th places at GS level. She is due to take part in the Antalya GS next month and her discount score will be a 5. So assuming she can get through her first bout, she has a good chance to increase her points total. 200 points needed to get into a direct qualification spot. Qualification Ranking: 29 Adjusted Ranking: 21 Acelya Toprak - (Points Total: 495) When the qualification window opened, Toprak was the highest ranked GBR judoka in this weight division but she seems to have been eclipsed by both Nairne and Smythe-Davis. She has competed 8 times and has lost her opening match on 5 occasions. Her points total in largely driven by runner up spot at Perth Open and she also had a 7th place finish at Abu Dhabi GS. The good news for her is that she has plenty of low value discount scores available so if she can get a decent result at Antalya GS, her score will begin to move forward. Qualification Ranking: 31 Adjusted Ranking: 23 Women's 63Kg: (Target Total* - 2480) Lucy Renshall - (Points Total: 1924) The second of our nailed on certainties for qualification, Renshall will return to world number 1 this week after victory at Tiblisi GS. She has competed in 7 events during the qualification window and has 2 gold and a bronze medal at grand slam level along with 7th place finishes at both World Champs and Masters. Her only blip was a 1st round loss at Paris GS which is her current discard score. Will be difficult - but not impossible - for her score to increase too much further. Her next discount score is 180 so she would need to get 5th place at Antalya to move her score forward. Qualification Ranking: 3 Adjusted Ranking: 3 Women's 70Kg: (Target Total* - 3020) Katie Jemima Yeats-Brown - (Points Total: 761) Has competed in 8 events with a bronze medals at both Abu Dhabi GS and the Perth Open. More recently, she's got to the round of 16 at both Tel Aviv and Tblisi grand slams. Her next discard score is 56, so she will need to reach last 16 at Antalya if her score is to improve. She is currently in a direct qualification spot but has been dropping down the rankings recently. Qualification Ranking: 18 Adjusted Ranking: 17 Kelley Petersen Pollard - (Points Total: 726) Has been in a close battle with Yeats-Brown for bragging rights in this weight class. Has competed in 9 events, but has reached the podium as yet. Her best results being a couple of 5th places at grand slam level. Like Yeats-Brown, her next discard score will be 56 and the pair will resume rivalry at the Antalya GS next month. Qualification Ranking: 20 Adjusted Ranking: 18 Women's 78Kg: (Target Total* - 2330) Natalie Powell - (Points Total: 1264) Ranked 13 in the world, Powell has competed in 9 events so far. Best result has been victory at Zagreb GP and runner-up at Abu Dhabi GS but equally, she has 3 events where she has lost in the first round. Her next discard score is 130 so will be difficult to push her score much higher. She is pretty well positioned for direct qualification. Qualification Ranking: 7 Adjusted Ranking: 7 Emma Reid - (Points Total: 650) Ranked 18 in the world, Reid hasn't been able to match the performances of Powell so far. Across 8 events, her best result is a bronze at the Portugal GP, and a 5th place at Hungary GS. Like Powell, she has also had 3 events where she has failed to progress beyond the first round. However, she does have a couple of low discard scores available to her, so assuming she can get through the first round at Antalya, she should be able to close the gap on Powell over the next few events. Were it not for the fact that Powell is higher ranked, then Reid would be comfortably in a direct qualification spot. Qualification Ranking: 22 Adjusted Ranking: 15 Women's +78Kg: (Target Total* - 2480) Haven't seen anything to suggest that Sarah Adlington has decided to continue after last year's Commonwealth Games which leaves this weight class pretty empty from a GB perspective. (* Target Total is taken from Tokyo qualification list and represents the points total required for the last direct quota spot in each weight class.)
  9. Whilst they have the quality to qualify, I can't see a scenario where the Scottish and Welsh FAs agree to field a joint team. They had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the table in 2012 and that was for a home games.
  10. Agree we'll get 3 athletes but Adelle Tracey won't be one of them as she switched allegiance to last year
  11. I could be wrong on this, but it feels like Team GB are doing better than we have in previous Olympic cycles - we haven't had any unexpected quotas, but we seem to be banking those quotas earlier than we have done previously.
  12. Sorry if stupid question, but why wouldn't Klaudia Bres or Elmira Karapetyan be in the race for a quota? Or is the website not showing the latest results?
  13. Am interested why you think Germany are going to perform so strongly? From a ranking perspective they should struggle to get out of the group stages.
  14. GBR men finally break their hoodoo against Uruguay with a pretty convincing 40 point win in their first pool match in Vancouver.
  15. This is disappointing if true: Great Britain to take smaller squads to future athletics championships | Daily Mail Online UK Athletics has always had a somewhat controversial selection policy which has resulted in athletes missing out on places at both Olympics and World Champs but they generally had the cover of the A and B standards. It will be interesting to see how the athletes respond to this given World Athletics have moved to increase the importance of the world ranking in securing qualification. I'd be pretty cheesed off if I had worked my ass off to build my world ranking, earn my qualification only to be told I'm not going to threaten a medal so I'm not going to be taken.
  16. After 6 rounds of the competition, there have been 270 individual matches and the win-loss record of each team is: Of the top teams everyone has played each other at least once with the exception of Ireland and Fiji who have so far managed to avoid each other. From the Team GB perspective, I think they have performing better over the last couple of rounds but have struggled when they are against teams from Oceania region. At the start of the year, I think most had pretty much written off GBR's prospects of qualifying through the European Games tournament but their head-to-head results against the other European nations are better than I was expecting.
  17. McIntosh is a former World Champ in 50m Rifle and had a pretty good run of form across 18/19 in this event and the 50m x3, but she just wasn't able to replicate that when it got to Tokyo - something that was true of a couple of our shooting squad. In terms of the depth of the field, I haven't checked everyone but from first glance it looks like the majority of the world's top 10 in the event were there so hopefully this is a return to form for her and not just a one off result.
  18. Group stage draw for the competition is scheduled to take place at the start of May.
  19. At the moment I think that only applies to the women's event. They're still to make a decision on the men's side.
  20. As expected Slovakia have secured their place in the final tournament so we're down to the final qualifying spot. At half time, Germany have a 7 point lead over Bosnia which would mean they would fall just short of Poland's Points Difference.
  21. I think there are still 2 live matches that could impact the qualification but as things stand: Hungary weren't in relevant action today and will qualify as one of the top 4 second placed teams. GBR are currently the second team to qualify after a fairly comfortable 78-48 win against Portugal. GBR have a points difference of +23. Israel are in a qualifying position, but we can exclude them as they are automatically qualified as a co-host. They finished with a PD of +9 Poland currently have the 3rd qualifying spot having defeated Slovenia 65-58. Whilst it is a good win, they probably would have liked a higher margin of victory. They finish with a points difference of -7 Ukraine are in the hot seat at the moment. They defeated Lithuania today 71-65. They finish with a points difference of -15 so are just ahead of Croatia who finished with a PD of -16 The only teams that could spoil the party for these 4 are Slovakia and Germany. Slovakia are currently destroying Luxembourg 50-27 in the second quarter. If they keep this rate of scoring up, they will probably go ahead of GBR to take the second qualifying spot. That will knock Ukraine out of contention. That leaves Germany who will take on Bosnia & Herzegovina later. Germany will probably start as favourites. They currently have a points difference of -15 so they only need to win by a margin of 8 to overtake Poland and secure the final qualifying spot. In the reverse match, Germany ran out 97-58 winners. So I think Poland may just fall short.
  22. So by my reckoning, Hungary will qualify for the final tournament by virtue of being the top ranked second placed teams. (Theoretically they could get caught by another team but they have healthy points difference of +82 so it is unlikely) Israel and Croatia have both completed their matches and have 6 points. Croatia are unlikely to qualify as their points difference is -16 so it is likely that they will be overtaken by another country after the last round of matches whilst Israel will qualify as host. The Netherlands take on the Czech Republic in their last group match. If they win, they will finish with 7 points and overtake Hungary to qualify as the top ranked team. If they lose, they finish with 6 points and it will come down to the margin of defeat. As a benchmark, in their previous match, CZE won by 5. If this is replicated, then the Netherlands points difference would be +15 and they would be likely to qualify. (NB in that scenario, they would also overtake Israel in the table) In Group F, Denmark take on Montenegro and they basically need to win to qualify. If they do win, their points difference will be in excess of +24 and they would likely go through as the second ranked team. Slovakia's final match in Group H is against Luxembourg. Last time around, Slovakia won by 20 points and there's no reason to think that won't happen again. If it did, they would finish with 6 points and a points difference of +16 so are well placed to qualify. The final Group G match is Portugal against GBR. These two teams are neck and neck with points difference of -8 and -7 respectively so whoever wins is probably going to need a victory margin of 25-30 points to be confident of qualifying. GBR played well against Estonia this evening but Portugal surprised with a victory against Greece so this could go either way. In the adjusted tables, Poland are second in group D ahead of Slovenia on points difference. (-14 against -15). They'll face off against each other in the final group match. In their previous meeting, it was a tight result with Slovenia edging it by 7 points. A similar result this time would be unlikely to be enough for either side to qualify. The winning side is probably going to need a margin of 30-40 points to qualify. It is a similar story for Group A (Germany) and Group B (Lithuania) - the margin of victory required to stand realistic chance of qualifying is likely to be in the region of 30-40 points. So with all that said, my best guess for qualification is: , , , and the winner of v
  23. The British women almost threw that gold medal away - it was the most untidy ride I've seen from them in years. The British guys can be happy with their performance after their horror showing in Tokyo and sub-par result in Munich last year. In both cases, a decent platform to build upon for Paris next year.
  24. Really disappointing performance by Fred Wright in the elimination race to finish just 14th. He was riding safely at the head of the pack and then suddenly spat out the back and didn't seem able to respond
  25. Both British teams safely making it through to the gold finals in the team sprint - they're unlikely to win either but at least 2 guaranteed medals. Feel sorry for the Polish guys who came so close to making it to the bronze medal ride off but made a bit of a mistake with the final rider.
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