Canada’s 2028 Olympic Qualification Discussion Road to LA 2028

[Josh 13,513]

A thread to discuss all things related to the upcoming summer Olympics! 

[JoshMartini007 2,822]

Qualification procedures won't be finalized for another two years, but here are my thoughts of our qualification chances in the five added sports.

 

American Football - Even assuming the United States gets a host quota, it might be difficult for Canada to qualify. Currently, Mexico is the next best Pan American nation and while we have potential using CFL and NFL players, I'm not sure if many would commit. A world qualifier would help our chances.

 

Baseball/Softball - We should easily qualify in softball given the United States will get the host quota. Baseball on the other hand will be quite difficult, assuming the team sports are only going to have 6-8 entrants.

 

Cricket - This is our weakest sport among the five here. I was relatively impressed with our men's T20 performance earlier this year. A split West Indies team makes things a bit interesting for the Pan American quota. On paper the major teams from the West Indies should beat us, but it does create a little bit of hope.

 

Lacrosse - We should easily qualify a men's and women's team. At worst we are top 2 in the world.

 

Squash - We currently have 1 man and 2 women in the top 50 rankings. I believe this will be a 16-person tournament and assuming 1 athlete per NOC there's a chance, more so on the women's side, but who knows where they will be ranked in four years or if someone new moves up the rankings.

[Josh 13,513]

Just a reminder, the World Baseball Classic starts in a few days (March 5-17) and is the only qualification event for the Americas, the two best nations from the Americas qualify. Results Here

 

For Canada, there's a very very small chance of qualifying if the guys can have the tournament of their life. Mexico, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico are the main favourites though. 

[Josh 13,513]

Also, here's the Olympic Qualification Event Schedule for Canada in 2026:

 

March 5-17, as mentioned: WBSC Men's World Baseball Classic

July 12: WT Mixed Relay World Championships, 2 quotas

August 4-13: FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup, 1 quota

August 11-23: FEI Equestrian World Championships, 21 team quotas (7 in jumping, 6 in dressage, 7 in eventing)

August 13-16: IFAF Flag Football World Championships, 2 quotas in each gender

August 19-27: Women's Volleyball NORCECA North American Championships, 1 quota

September 9-17: Men's Volleyball NORCECA North American Championships, 1 quota

October 17-25: WG Artistic Gymnastics World Championships, 3 teams in each gender

November 1-15: ISSF Shooting World Championships, 18 quotas in each gender

November 3-7: BMX Freestyle at the UCI World Championships, 2 quotas in each gender

November 4-9: Beach Volleyball NORCECA North American Championships, 1 quota in each gender

November 24- December 5: Women's Football NORCECA North American Championships, 1 quota

TBD: ISU World Games, 1 team quota in each gender

[Josh 13,513]

Not sure how many people saw it, but over on the "Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation Road to LA 2028" thread I did a qualification overview for Canada and thought I'd share it here as well. This will almost surely be all wrong, but just for fun

 

The total is 437 athletes, up by around 55 from Tokyo our highest ever total, and 12 teams, breaking our single games record of 9 set in 1976 at home in Montreal. 

 

Aquatics

Artistic Swimming: 2, can't be optimistic about everything. 

Diving: 7. Three of Cullen/Wiens/Tessier in M 10m (I think at this stage leaving one behind would be a mistake...), Two of Jasmin/Erlam/Vallee/Palkhivala in W 3m, Miller in W 10m and Two of Zsombor-Murray/Paul/Fofana/Ciprick in M 3 (leaning towards the first two)

Open Water Swimming: 2. One male, one female. Emma Finlin and Eric Brown. 

Swimming: 31. With the stroke 50s being added, slight increase from Paris. 

Waterpolo: 26. Women's team, for sure, given the extra quotas. Men's team will be battling Brazil for the Pan American Games quota, far from a given but I think it can happen (hmmmm, probably won't though) 

Archery: 2. One male, one female. Eric Peters is the frontrunner for the men, and Stephanie Barrett for the women (Esebua/Chenier/Brug/Hawash are also in the mix), but the men's team also has a small chance (with Deevang Gupta and one of Crispin Duenas/Reece Wilson-Potyon) maybe. 

Athletics: I know we had 48 in Paris but hear me out... 62 59. Boosted by some young talent coming through the pipelines and I think and hope the men's 4x400m relay can qualify. 

Badminton: 6. Victor Lai in men's singles, Michelle Li in women's singles, Lai/Yakura in men's doubles, Choi/Wu in women's doubles. No Lindeman/Wu in mixed doubles.

Baseball/Softball: 15. Qualification in softball. 

Basketball: 28 again. Men's team is stacked with NBA talent and should qualify through the World Cup or the Final Olympic Qualification Tournament, although with what happened in Tokyo we'll see. Women's team almost fucked up their qualification at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament last time, hopefully that won't happen again. Women's 3x3 team should qualify, Paige Crozon/Katherine Plouffe/Saicha Grant-Allen are probably locks and the last spot will be between Bosch/Brown. 

Boxing: 4. Tammara Thibeault is focusing on pro boxing at the moment, but has stated she wants redemption in LA 2028 in 75kg. Unfortunately, Viktoria Penney who's a promising youngster on our team, currently competes in 80kg and will probably drop down a weight-class because cutting down 10kg is a nightmare which means only one of them will be able to compete. Keoma Ali-Ahmadieh has shown some strong form at the World Championships last year, Joshua Orfi did as well. Bryan Coldwell also has a chance. With Scarlett Delgado, Mackenzie Wright, and Marie Al-Ahmadieh continuing, all of which barely missed out on quotas last squad, our women's squad will be hungry.

Canoeing: 15. Katie Vincent, and two of Sloan MacKenzie/Sophia Jensen/Zoe Wojtyk in women's canoeing. Full squad in kayaking, and Fitzpatrick in men's canoeing. Alex Baldoni and Daniel Parry in the men's canoe slalom events (Parry is a promising youngster, may be too soon though), and one of Lea Baldoni/Lois Betteridge in the women's canoe slalom events. 

Cricket: 0. Nope, no chance. Our men might have a chance if it was 12 teams, but 6 absolutely not. 

Cycling: 24. In BMX freestyle, 1-2 of Mike Varga/Maxime Chalifoux/Jeffrey Whaley in the men's event. In BMX racing, Molly Simpson in the women's event for sure, and while Lucas Zhou is in contention for the men, along with Ryan Tougas I think both will miss out. Cole Punchard and one of Gunnar Holmgren/Carter Woods/Tyler Orschel in men's mountain biking, and Jennifer Jackson and one of Isabella/Ava Holmgren/Emily Johnson/Ella MacPhee/Rafaelle Carrier in women's mountain biking. Alison Jackson and one of Magdalene Vallires Mill/Olivia Baril/Sarah Van Dam in women's road race, Hugo Houle and Derek Gee in men's road race. Nick Wammes in men's sprint/keirin, Sarah Orban, Kelsey Mitchell and Lauriane Genest in women's team sprint, teams in women's and men's pursuit. No qualification in men's team sprint this time around.

Equestrian: Full team of 9 athletes

Fencing: 14. Team in women's foil, women's epee (if US can finish top 4), men's sabre (same with previous), men's foil, one of Nicolas Zhang/Fynn Fafard/Leon Xiao/Dylan French in men's epee, and Pamela Brind'Amour in women's sabre if she hasn't retired yet. 

Field Hockey: 16. Based off the qualification system, I'll say yes. Women are in a rebuild, so probably won't finish ahead of all of Uruguay/Chile/Mexico, however for the men I think there's a decent chance if we can make it to the bronze medal match against probably Chile, but it'll be a battle.

Flag Football: 10. Tossup with only 6 teams per gender, but I'll say the women's team qualifies. 

Football: 18. Women's team. Men's team has a very small chance, depending on the qualifying event roster, but don't see it at all. 

Golf: 4. Two per gender, as is typical. Brooke Henderson and one of Anna Huang/Alena Sharp/Maude Aimee Leblanc/Aphrodite Deng for the women, a combination of Corey Connors, Nick Taylor, Taylor Pendrith, MacKenzie Hughes for the men. 

Gymnastics:  12. Men's and women's teams in artistic gymnastics both qualify, men's is less sure though. It'll be between Felix Dolci, Ioannis Chronopoulos, Zachary Clay, Jayson Ramperstad, Chris Kaji, William Emmard, René Cournoyer, Aiden Li, Samuel Zakutney for the men's spots. Ellie Black, Lia Monica Fontaine, Aurelie Tran, Sydney Turner, Laurie Denoumee, Ava Stewart, Gabrielle Black, Denelle Pendrick, Rose Woo, Cassie Lee, and Ana Padurariu/Shallon Olsen (could be retired in some form, either overall or NT) for the women's spots. Sophiane Methot should qualify in trampoline for the women (Milette has no chance with the qualification system, unfortunately), and one of Remi Aubin/Gavin Dodd/Keegan Soehn/Etienne Cloutier for the men.

Handball: 

Judo: 7. One of Catherine Beauchemin-Pinard or Jessica Klimkait in women's 63kg (right now I trust the former more, Klimkait has only switched weight classes recently though so I hope she can succeed in the transition and it'll be a tight internal battle), Christa Deguchi in women's 57kg, Evelyn Beaton in women's 52kg, and Coralie Godbout in women's 78kg (20th and 21st in the rankings, somewhat surprising), Francois Gauthier Drapeau in men's 81kg, Kyle Reyes in men's 100kg, Arthur Margelidon in men's 73kg (hasn't competed since Paris, if he's not in form maybe Justin Lemire), and I have Julien Frascadore in men's 66kg missing out. 

Lacrosse: 24. Men's and women's teams qualify, anything else will be unacceptable (something would have to seriously go wrong but... until it happens)

Modern Pentathlon: Ermmmmmmm (Unless the new format favours a Canadian? Maybe Schultz? No idea)

Rowing: Hopefully 25? Katie Clark in women’s single sculls, women's eights, men's eights, women's quadruple sculls, men's double sculls etc. No idea if we have any chance in costal rowing? 

Rugby Sevens: 24. Women's and men's teams both qualify, with the US getting host quotas it makes getting the North American quota a lot easier.  

Sailing: 7. Antonia and Georgia Lewin-Lafrance in 49er FX, Madeline Gillis/Galen Richardson in nacra 17, Arie Moffat/Will Jones in 49er, and one of Ryan Anderson/James Juhasz/Carlos Charbati in ICLA 7 (last is young, so he might not even be competing in it by 2027)

Shooting: 1-3. Angad Vir Singh Bajwa has just recently switched from India to Canada, and should be in contention in men's skeet having finished 18th in Tokyo. Madeline Boyd in women's skeet, Alex Wong in men's skeet? Shannon Westlake in women's 50m rifle 3 positions? Ty Ikeda in men's 50m rifle 3 positions?

Skateboarding: 5. Unless Reece Nelson switches from vert to park in the next year, which I doubt it, only Fay Ebert in park, even though Evie Pritchard/Olivia Jiang also have chances scratch that I have faith in Evie. Three of Cordano Russell, Ryan Decenzo, Matt Berger, Micky Papa, Christopher Setinas in men's street. 

Sport Climbing: 1. Madison Richardson in women's boulder. Think the Bautrand's and Pitcher in men's speed will miss out. Probably too soon for Kelley in boulder, Le/Villeneuve in speed.  

Squash: 1. Hollie Naughton in the women's event. Baillargeon has fallen down the rankings and probably won't qualify.

Surfing: 3. Erin Brooks hopefully  (she should've competed in Tahiti...) and one of Sanoa/Mathea Olin in the women's event, Cody Young in the men's event. Levi Young and Wheeler Hasburgh miss out. 

Taekwondo: 3. Skylar Park in women's 57kg, one of Leonarda Andric (women's 67kg) or Josipa Kafadar (women's 49kg), and one of Nicholas Hoefling/Braven Park (men's 58kg), Tae-Ku Park (men's 68kg) for the men. Ella Brewster has to do better than Park if she wants to qualify, I don't see it happening. 

Table Tennis: 2. We have chances to qualify both teams, but nah. I think it'll just be Edward Ly in men's singles and Mo Zhang in women's singles. 

Triathlon: 4. 2 per gender, as usual. Tyler Mislawchuk and Charles Paquet for the men, One of Dominika Jamnicky/Sophia Howell/Desirae Ridenour and Emy Legault for the women.

Tennis: 8. FAA, Shapo, Diallo in men's singles. Mboko, Fernandez, Andresscu, Marino in women's singles. Dabrowski in doubles. 

Volleyball: 4. Both teams could qualify, and neither team could qualify. Just so I have as little expectations as possible, I'll say neither. Humana-Parades/Wilkerson should qualify in women’s beach volleyball, I’m really confused on what the pairing situation is like so I’ll say we won’t qualify a second female team (and Belanger/Monkhouse are a tossup), but I think Schachter/Pickett can qualify in men’s beach volleyball through the NORCECA event. 

Weightlifting: Only 1. Maude Charron in women's 59kg. Etta Love in women's 81kg+ and Alex Bellemare comes up short in men's 85/95kg

Wrestling: 6. Not sure if he has citizenship yet, but Peiman Biabani in men's 65kg freestyle (unfortunate for MacNeil) and Amar Dhesi in men's 125kg freestyle for the men. Alex Moore (men's 86kg freestyle) misses out). For the women, Ana Godinez (women's 62kg), one of Karla Godinez/Hannah Taylor (women's 57kg), Olivia Di Bacco (women's 68kg), Serena Di Benedetto (women's 53kg)

 

Rundown

Artistic Swimming: 2-8

Diving: 6-8 hopefully

Open Water Swimming: 1-2

Swimming: 26-32

Waterpolo: 13-26

Archery: 2-4

Athletics: 50-62

Badminton: 4-8, singles and at least one doubles

Baseball/Softball: 15

Basketball: 16-28 (because of the unpredictability of the men and disaster with the women, even though both should qualify)

Boxing: 2-6

Canoeing: 10-15, one of the K4's (probably the men if I had to guess) might miss out

Cricket: 0 and 0

Cycling: 15-24

Equestrian: 9

Fencing: 7-14

Field Hockey: 0-16

Flag Football: 0-20

Football: 18-36

Golf: 4

Gymnastics: 6-12

Judo: 5-8

Lacrosse: 24

Modern Pentathlon: 0 again 

Rowing: 13-29, right now

Rugby Sevens: 24

Sailing: 2-8, 49erFX then the rest are tossups along with Bugeja in kite

Shooting: 1-3, as usual

Skateboarding: 4-5

Sport Climbing: 0-1, maybe more if the US weren't able to get a second quota at Pan Ams but they are

Squash: 1-2, I see Baillargeon is still competing maybe he can surprise

Surfing: 1-3

Taekwondo: 1-3

Table Tennis: 2-6

Triathlon: 4

Tennis: 5-8

Volleyball: 2-30, I expect the number to be higher than that, whether it's qualifying a team or two in indoor, or a men's quota/second women's quota in beach volleyball I'm not sure

Weightlifting: 1-3, more likely 1.

Wrestling: 4-6, three in women's wrestling and one of the men above at least. 

Edited yesterday at 04:59 AM by Josh

[intoronto 6,874]

Stephanie Barret is retired. Devaang Gupta has switched to compete for India.

 

[Topicmaster1010 6,378]

9 minutes ago, Josh said:

Swimming: 31. With the stroke 50s being added, slight increase from Paris. 

Stroke 50's don't actually add any quotas (well they add 6 each but doubt Canada grabs too many of them). Not sure if you've seen the new A standards but they are absolutely diabolical. I can't imagine many Canadians will be hitting those times. With the new standards and reduction in relay only swimmers, I'll be happy if we can reach 20 athletes.

[Josh 13,513]

28 minutes ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Stroke 50's don't actually add any quotas (well they add 6 each but doubt Canada grabs too many of them). Not sure if you've seen the new A standards but they are absolutely diabolical. I can't imagine many Canadians will be hitting those times. With the new standards and reduction in relay only swimmers, I'll be happy if we can reach 20 athletes.

Oh yes I forgot about the stupid A standards and the new qualification format