2024 Olympics - Day 8 (August 3)

[JockCartier 119]

25 minutes ago, orangeman said:

1.8 LOL.

I use probabilities rather than medal pick 

[JockCartier 119]

25 minutes ago, Josh said:

I agree. There’s absolutely no way we’re winning over 28-29 (I believe that was his projection?), unless one or two of Warner/FAA medaled today and the women’s soccer advanced to the medal rounds. 

I said 27-28

It's more an indication that our conversion rate in the first half was probably at the high end... it tends to level out over time, so the second half may not be as kind

That's also assuming my projections are accurate, and not just an exercise in my willingness to be wrong publicly 
 

Edited August 3 by JockCartier
Clarity

[orangeman 1,989]

44 minutes ago, Josh said:

I agree. There’s absolutely no way we’re winning over 28-29 (I believe that was his projection?), unless one or two of Warner/FAA medaled today and the women’s soccer advanced to the medal rounds. 

I was lol-ing at the decimal, not the prediction.

 

Canada now has 15, but really 16 since Sanford has a guaranteed medal. 11-12 more in the second week is not crazy. We will need some 50/50s to step up though. 

 

It'll be fun (or not) to see if we can break our non-boycott records of 24/7. 

Edited August 3 by orangeman

[orangeman 1,989]

Canada will face France in the basketball quarters. They will be on the opposite side of the bracket to the USA.

[intoronto 5,639]

Andre's semi is so stacked

[JockCartier 119]

Sanford is baked in. Katzberg, Rogers and Mitton are good bets in athletics. Breaking and Vincent/Mackenzie in C2 as well. So that's at least six highly likelies. 

Then we have a lot of toss ups too. 3x3, men's basketball, C1, Arop, 4x100, a couple events in track cycling, etc... and a whole mess of minor threats. If the toss ups convert around 50% and one or two of the minor threats pay off, we're there. 

There will be disappointments too of course, but it tends to average out. 

 

Edited August 3 by JockCartier

[George_D 1,205]

Canada avoids USA till the final

 

[Josh 10,512]

We had a 50% chance of facing them anyways, but Mel/Brandie draw Kloth/Nuss in the knockout round 

 

I much rather would’ve preferred Duda/AP, who have been struggling this season, but oh well… to be among the best you have to beat the best. 

Edited August 3 by Josh

[Josh 10,512]

1 hour ago, JockCartier said:

Sanford is baked in. Katzberg, Rogers and Mitton are good bets in athletics. Breaking and Vincent/Mackenzie in C2 as well. So that's at least six highly likelies. 

Then we have a lot of toss ups too. 3x3, men's basketball, C1, Arop, 4x100, a couple events in track cycling, etc... and a whole mess of minor threats. If the toss ups convert around 50% and one or two of the minor threats pay off, we're there. 

There will be disappointments too of course, but it tends to average out. 

 

I thought Warner was shoe in for a medal before the pole vault, and then disaster struck so…

 

I’d put C1 with Vincent and Jensen with the same medal odds as the C2 IMO.

[Topicmaster1010 4,179]

13 hours ago, Josh said:

Maybe he’ll be a medal contender in the 100m butterfly the next quad? That is, if he decides to stick with Canada. 

This aged pretty well!