How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024?

[Josh 10,516]

2 hours ago, Noorderling29 said:

FWIW, Gracenote predicts 18 gold, 36 medals for the Dutch team.

Let’s just say that Gracenote has a reputation of not having the most accurate projections

I’d be curious to see how many medals (and golds) Netherlands are projected to win on any Dutch Olympic site. 

[AlexMunegu59 33]

16 hours ago, Josh said:

19 medals for Canada? We could probably get that number without McIntosh 

 

9 golds seems like a fair number (maybe a tad high), I’d be happy with that. 

For my perspective :

Gold : Deguchi (judo -57kg) / McIntosh (400m medley/200m butterfly/200m medley) / Lepage (decathlon) / Mitton (shot put) / Arop (800m) / Kim (breakdance) / Thibeault (boxing -75kg)

 

Silver : McIntosh (400m free) / Vincent (200m canoe simple) /  Katzberg (hammer) / Rogers (hammer) / Henderson (golf W)

 

Bronze : McNeil (100m butterfly) / Relay 4x100 medley W / Bibic (omnium) / Cavanagh (boxing -66kg) / Warner (decathlon)

[Josh 10,516]

2 hours ago, AlexMunegu59 said:

For my perspective :

Gold : Deguchi (judo -57kg) / McIntosh (400m medley/200m butterfly/200m medley) / Lepage (decathlon) / Mitton (shot put) / Arop (800m) / Kim (breakdance) / Thibeault (boxing -75kg)

 

Silver : McIntosh (400m free) / Vincent (200m canoe simple) /  Katzberg (hammer) / Rogers (hammer) / Henderson (golf W)

 

Bronze : McNeil (100m butterfly) / Relay 4x100 medley W / Bibic (omnium) / Cavanagh (boxing -66kg) / Warner (decathlon)

Fair enough, but that does seem a little conservative. Hope you’re wrong 

Edit: … didn’t even realize Cavanaugh was on there

Edited June 19 by Josh

[intoronto 5,641]

1 hour ago, AlexMunegu59 said:

For my perspective :

Gold : Deguchi (judo -57kg) / McIntosh (400m medley/200m butterfly/200m medley) / Lepage (decathlon) / Mitton (shot put) / Arop (800m) / Kim (breakdance) / Thibeault (boxing -75kg)

 

Silver : McIntosh (400m free) / Vincent (200m canoe simple) /  Katzberg (hammer) / Rogers (hammer) / Henderson (golf W)

 

Bronze : McNeil (100m butterfly) / Relay 4x100 medley W / Bibic (omnium) / Cavanagh (boxing -66kg) / Warner (decathlon)

Cavanagh is retired and didn't even quaify

[AsensioWillemsen 158]

On 6/19/2024 at 12:01 AM, Josh said:

Let’s just say that Gracenote has a reputation of not having the most accurate projections

I’d be curious to see how many medals (and golds) Netherlands are projected to win on any Dutch Olympic site. 

The predictions often take golds like Bol, Van der Poel, Madison, Steenbergen with a pretty high chance, while out of these for I give Bol maybe 5% chance, vd Poel maybe 10% and the other two 1% at best. Hassan is the only one that has a high chance of producing a gold often not reflected in predictions.

 

Golds that are certain I would only give to Florijn and Lavrijsen. I'd say it is highly likely we will also take gold from hockey, women's cycling road race, at least one sailing event and at least 2 more rowing events, team sprint and even though form is uncertain, I will put Sifan in here as well.

 

Then we do have at least 10 events were gold is a realistic possibility, from anywhere from 10-50%. These include stuff like men's cycling, women's XCO on the low end and more rowing golds, M keirin and Van Rouwendaal on the high end.

 

All in all, I'd say 12-15 golds is pretty realistic. And that would still be really good for us.

[AsensioWillemsen 158]

It really stands with Rowing though, I'd say we score 10 golds outside of rowing, and then 2-5 golds in rowing. 5 golds in rowing would be totally crazy tbh, 3 would already be really good.

[Jinzha 702]

6 hours ago, AsensioWillemsen said:

The predictions often take golds like Bol, Van der Poel, Madison, Steenbergen with a pretty high chance, while out of these for I give Bol maybe 5% chance, vd Poel maybe 10% and the other two 1% at best. Hassan is the only one that has a high chance of producing a gold often not reflected in predictions.

 

Golds that are certain I would only give to Florijn and Lavrijsen. I'd say it is highly likely we will also take gold from hockey, women's cycling road race, at least one sailing event and at least 2 more rowing events, team sprint and even though form is uncertain, I will put Sifan in here as well.

 

Then we do have at least 10 events were gold is a realistic possibility, from anywhere from 10-50%. These include stuff like men's cycling, women's XCO on the low end and more rowing golds, M keirin and Van Rouwendaal on the high end.

 

All in all, I'd say 12-15 golds is pretty realistic. And that would still be really good for us.

That would definitely be very good for us, as 12 golds is still our record for best Games ever, in Sydney!

 

I agree with your analysis. I also predict around 12 medals, with rowing, sailing and Harrie Lavreysen as most reliable factors.

 

I'd add men's hockey team, women's waterpolo team and Niek Kimmann as outside chances as well. Maybe Joanne van Lieshout too.

[avlar 372]

I found my old predicyions from medal chances on November.

So I can compare my feelings about chances then and now.

 

- 2 medals in Diving. 10m (Men). Single and Synchro.

- 2 in Swimming. Romanchuk / Bukhov.

- 4 in Canoe. K4M, C1W, C2W - wildwater W.

- 4 in Artistic Gymnastics.  All for men - AA, VT, PB + HB/VT/TE.

- 4 in Wrestling. 3 in WW (Koliadenko, Hrushina, Livach) and 1 in GR (Belenyuk).

- 3 in Shooting. Pistol M/W, Rifle - M.

- 4 in Athletics. 2 in women HJ, M HT and W TJ.

- 1 in Judo. W.

- 3 in Fencing. WEpee team, WSabre, WSabre team.

- 1 in Boxing. Khyznyak, Abduraimov.

- 1 in Weightlifting. W59.

- 1 in Football. 

- 1 in Tennis - WSingles

- 1 in Rowing - W4x.

 

The method is much more simpler than GraceNote`s one: to count all the possible medals whcih will not suprise me and divide it by 2 )))

 

So 32 / 2 = 16 medals

 

 

 

[Gonzaxene 11]

Most likely 2-3 with 4 being our max if everything goes well

 

- Women Hockey (Silver)

- Men Rugby Seven (Bronze/Silver)

- Football (I'm not a fan of Mascherano as a coach but we'll see)

- Tennis (Men's Doubles, but not a lock as people expect as Zeballos wasn't called)

[Belle 975]

Armand Duplantis (gold)

Sarah Sjöström (gold,silver)

Equestrian Jumping Team Event (silver)

Equestrian Jumping Individual Event(bronze)

Beach volleyball (bronze)

Sailing 49er FX (silver)

 

I think it will be 8 medals for