Swimming at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Epic Failure 209]

33 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

No worries, honestly, no offence was taken at all, just thought it was useful to show it on the forum. All good.

 

the problem is they have to put him somewhere, and anywhere else is a bloody liability too.

Agreed that there's no great place for him. I just think that the 4x1 is the worst option. I take your earlier point about the likely order of relays preference and that impacting their thinking. But I think we could get away with him in the mixed medley probably fine. Maybe even the 4x2, although there's more at risk there if that goes wrong.

 

Personally, I'd put him in the mixed, then the men's medley, then 4x2, then 4x1 myself.

 

Either way, I'd not have both him and Jack in the same heat, whatever else happens. To me that just seems like asking for trouble.

 

 

 

 

[Surreal 4]

5 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

No worries, honestly, no offence was taken at all, just thought it was useful to show it on the forum. All good.

 

the problem is they have to put him somewhere, and anywhere else is a bloody liability too.

Honstly I think you're being a bit harsh on him, he's probably just as good a 100 Flyer atm as Guy based on Jimmy's form so far this season in the 100 Fly. Putting Joe on the medley or mixed medley heats is fine.

 

The fact that Guy's entered in the 100 Fly individually makes me think they'll swim Joe in the mixed medley heats because heats of the mixed medley is on the same day as the heats/semis of the 100 Fly - I'm guessing GB will compare their respective times and whoever's quicker gets the spot for the men's medley relay.

Edited Thursday at 07:56 AM by Surreal

[Timezone 11]

On 7/16/2024 at 3:15 PM, Topicmaster1010 said:

Relay Power Rankings: Men's 4x100m Medley Relay

 

Other Power Rankings:

Women's 4x200m Freestyle Relay

 

Remember, for each country, I'm taking the top 4 eligible swimmers for each country and using their best times from 2024 to form a estimated relay time. 1.5 seconds will be subtracted from each cumulative time to account for reaction times.

 

*Please note that the order of swimmers is arranged from fastest to slowest times, NOT by predicted relay order.

 

16.  Austria - 3:33.17

• Backstroke: Bernhard Reitshammer - 54.54
• Valentin Bayer - 1:00.49
• Butterfly: Simon Bucher - 51.28
• Freestyle: Heiko Gigler - 48.36

 

Not surprising to see Austria at the bottom of the rankings with Simon Bucher the only swimmer than had an OQT in the qualification period. Heiko Gigler is a decent option at freestyle but the other two legs drag this relay down.

 

15.  Ireland - 3:32.57

• Backstroke: Conor Ferguson - 53.87
• Breaststroke: Darragh Greene - 59.91
• Butterfly: Max Mc Cusker - 51.90
• Freestyle: Shane Ryan - 48.39

 

Ireland actually doesn't have a single member of this relay that had an OQT in the stroke 100s during the qualification period. However, they were all just outside of their respective OQTs and that's enough to put them ahead of Austria here.

 

14.  Switzerland - 3:32.44

• Backstroke: Roman Mityukov - 53.58
• Breaststroke: Jeremy Desplanches - 1:00.90
• Butterfly: Noe Ponti - 50.16
• Freestyle: Antonio Djakovic - 49.30

 

Noe Ponti is one of the best butterfliers in the world (currently ranked 2nd this year) and Roman Mityukov is a decent backstroker. However, the breaststroke and freestyle legs are too much of a weakness to prevent this relay on moving further up in the rankings.

 

13.  South Korea - 3:32.01

• Backstroke: Lee Juho - 53.81
• Breaststroke: Choi Dongyeol - 59.74
• Butterfly: Kim Jihun - 52.05
• Freestyle: Hwang Sunwoo - 47.91

 

This relay definitely had the potential to be higher up in the rankings. Hwang Sunwoo is an elite freestyler. Lee Juho has been as quick as 53.32 in his career and Choi Dongyeol has been as quick as 59.28 but neither one has found their best form this year. It's a shame that Kim Youngbeom wasn't selected for the Olympic team. He recently broke the Korean 100m butterfly record in a time of 51.65 (a few months after the team selection).

 

12.  Spain - 3:31.41

• Backstroke: Hugo Gonzalez - 52.70
• Breaststroke: Carles Coll - 1:00.39
• Butterfly: Mario Molla - 51.48
• Freestyle: Sergio de Celis - 48.34

 

Hugo Gonzalez has established himself as an elite backstroker and Mario Moll and Sergio Celis should provide decent legs. The breaststroke leg needs to be the difference maker if Spain wants a chance to make the final.

 

11.  Japan - 3:31.16

• Backstroke: Riku Matsuyama - 53.72
• Breaststroke: Taku Taniguchi - 59.43
• Butterfly: Katsuhiro Matsumoto - 51.23
• Freestyle: Naoki Mizunuma - 48.28

 

Here, we have our first relay where all 4 swimmers were under their respective OQTs. However, there aren't any standout legs which is why they rank 11th here. Naoki Mizunuma has the highest world rank of the 4 swimmers at 19th in the 100m butterfly. Katsuhiro Matsumoto actually ranks 12th but the relay add up time is faster with him at freestyle.

 

10.  Canada - 3:30.89

• Backstroke: Blake Tierney - 53.48
• Breaststroke: Finlay Knox - 1:00.66
• Butterfly: Josh Liendo - 50.06
• Freestyle: Yuri Kisil - 48.19

 

Josh Liendo is the big star here and will be expected to be the difference maker in this relay. Blake Tierney is greatly improving in the backstroke and Yuri Kisil is a decent option at freestyle. Like with most Canadian medley relays, breaststroke is the biggest weakness here. Finlay Knox will be expected to take the role and given his rapid improvement this year in the 200 IM, it's not out of the question for him to drop more time.

 

9.  Poland - 3:30.60

• Backstroke: Ksawery Masiuk - 53.09
• Breaststroke: Jan Kalusowski - 59.58
• Butterfly: Jakub Majerski - 50.98
• Freestyle: Mateusz Chowaniec - 48.45

 

Poland might have the most underrated medley relay of any team. Jakub Majerski has improved greatly this season and ranks 12th in the world in the 100m butterfly. Ksawery Masiuk also ranks in the top 20 in the 100m backstroke this year and is still a teenager. Kalusowski and Chowaniec have times just outside the OQT in their respective events.

 

8.  Netherlands - 3:30.21

• Backstroke: Kai van Westering - 53.80
• Breaststroke: Arno Kamminga - 58.87
• Butterfly: Nyls Korstanje - 50.90
• Freestyle: Sean Niewold - 48.14

 

With the addition of Kai van Westering and the emergence of Sean Niewold, the Netherlands will be a contender to make the final. They'll likely join Arno Kamminga (or Caspar Corbeau) and Nyls Korstanje on the relay who are both top 10 in the world in their respective events.

 

7.  Germany - 3:30.18

• Backstroke: Ole Braunschweig - 53.48
• Breaststroke: Melvin Imoudu - 58.84
• Butterfly: Kaii Winkler - 51.51
• Freestyle: Josha Salchow -47.85

 

Germany is a country that's made great improvements in the medley relay this year. Josha Salchow has dropped more than a second off his freestyle time in 2023 to improve his PB to 47.85. Melvin Imoudu has had a breakout year and his breaststroke PB stands at 58.84 now. Germany was also able to get one of the top American prospects Kaii Winkler to join their team which will be a big boost on the butterfly leg. Ole Braunschweig should also have a decent backstroke leg.

 

6.  Italy - 3:29.55

• Backstroke: Thomas Ceccon - 52.43
• Breaststroke: Nicolo Martinenghi - 58.84
• Butterfly: Alberto Razzetti - 52.06
• Freestyle: Alessandro Miressi - 47.72

 

It was only two years ago that Italy won an unexpected gold at the 2022 World Championships in this relay. With Thomas Ceccon, Nicolo Martinenghi and Alessandro Miressi, they have 3 elite swimmers which all rank in the top 12 in the world this year in their respective events. Not a single Italian hit the 51.67 OQT during the qualification period. Alberto Razzetti will likely be asked to do the butterfly leg. He's an world class IMer and 200m butterflyer but his 100m butterfly best time this year is only 52.06 and that just won't cut it against the other top nations. If he can drop some time, Italy could factor into the medals.

 

5.  Australia - 3:28.99

• Backstroke: Isaac Cooper - 53.46
• Breaststroke: Sam Williamson - 58.80
• Butterfly: Matthew Temple - 50.60
• Freestyle: Kyle Chalmers - 47.63

 

Despite Kyle Chalmers only having a season best of 47.63, we all know he's going to be much faster than that in Paris. Arguably no one has been more clutch on relays than him so if Australia is within striking distance of a medal heading into the freestyle leg, they'll get it. Sam Williamson has had a breakthrough year going under 59 seconds for the first time in his career at the Australian Trials. That's turned a longtime Australian weakness into a possible strength this year. Matthew Temple, at his best, is an elite butterflier but he failed to break the 51 second barrier at Australian Trials. He's been as quick as 50.25 in his career so the Australians will be hoping he can be at that form in Paris. The big question mark will be on the backstroke leg where Isaac Cooper has the fastest time this year at 53.46. He'll need to be faster if Australia wants to contend for the medals.

 

4.  France - 3:28.93

• Backstroke: Mewen Tomac - 52.88
• Breaststroke: Leon Marchand - 59.06
• Butterfly: Maxime Grousset - 50.59
• Freestyle: Florent Manaudou - 47.90

 

Two impressive performances have helped vault France in the middle of medal contention. First, Leon Marchand set a monster PB in the 100m breaststroke going 59.06. Then at French Trials, Florent Manaudou set a PB in the 100m freestyle of 47.90. Add a top 12 backstroker + the reigning 100m butterfly world champion to the mix and you've got a really good relay. You can make an argument of putting Grousset on the freestyle leg and Clement Secchi on the butterfly leg but I did the math and based on their season bests, putting Grousset and Manadou in the relay makes the relay faster by 0.01 seconds.

 

3.  Great Britain - 3:28.67

• Backstroke: Ollie Morgan - 52.70
• Breaststroke: Adam Peaty - 57.94
• Butterfly: Joe Litchfield - 51.71
• Freestyle: Matt Richards - 47.82

 

At British Trials, we got to see both the return to form of Adam Peaty and the emergence of Ollie Morgan as one of the best backstrokers in the world. It was after those swims that everyone thought the British medley relay could contend for gold. After all, Matt Richards had also just come off of a finals appearance in the 100m freestyle at the 2023 World Championships. But then the 100m butterfly leg happened. Surprisingly, Jacob Peters, the best British butterflyer over the past two years failed to make the Olympic Team and the race was won by Joe Litchfield in a pedestrian time of 51.71. Whether or not they will use Litchfield or clutch relay performer James Guy remains to be seen but either way, the butterfly leg will be the biggest difference maker for Great Britain.

 

2.  China - 3:27.13

• Backstroke: Xu Jiayu - 52.39
• Breaststroke: Qin Haiyang - 58.24
• Butterfly: Wang Changhao - 51.20
• Freestyle: Pan Zhanle - 46.80

 

Speaking of a key butterfly leg, China will also need one. China currently boasts the 4th ranked 100m backstroker in the world, the 2nd ranked 100m breaststroker in the world, and the top ranked 100m freestyler in the world who just broke the world record at the 2024 World Championships. Wang Changhao will likely be relied on for the butterfly leg. He's just coming off setting a PB at Chinese Olympic Trials and ranks 18th in the world this year. If he can stay in touch with Caeleb Dressel, they'll have the World Record holder, Pan Zhanle, to bring them home.

 

1.  United States - 3:26.56

• Backstroke: Ryan Murphy - 52.22
• Breaststroke: Nic Fink - 58.57
• Butterfly: Caeleb Dressel - 50.19
• Freestyle: Jack Alexy - 47.08

 

Not surprisingly, the team that everybody will be chasing is the US, who has won every edition of this relay in Olympic history that they've competed in. There are no clear weaknesses on this team. So far this year, Ryan Murphy ranks 1st in the world in the 100m backstroke, Nic Fink ranks 3rd in the 100m breaststroke, Caeleb Dressel ranks 3rd in the 100m butterfly, and Jack Alexy ranks 3rd in the 100m freestyle.

Xu went 52.05 which is season leading time. Fink was very average im trials think China a most likely to win gold. 

[Topicmaster1010 3,268]

55 minutes ago, Timezone said:

Xu went 52.05 which is season leading time. Fink was very average im trials think China a most likely to win gold. 

That was from last year's Asian Games. I only included times from 2024.

[Timezone 11]

Just now, Topicmaster1010 said:

That was from last year's Asian Games. I only included times from 2024.

He is considered from this current swimming season. Also last event chinese swimmers took seriously 

[JockCartier 25]

Topicmaster1010 clearly stated his criteria. You don't have to like it. 

[BruT06 17]

Why the time of swimming heats by discipline is not yet published?

[OlympicsFan 802]

12 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

No worries, honestly, no offence was taken at all, just thought it was useful to show it on the forum. All good.

 

the problem is they have to put him somewhere, and anywhere else is a bloody liability too.

Why can’t they use him in the 800 free relay prelims? GB could probably qualify for the final going 7:06.

[OlympicsFan 802]

I looked at how many individual top 8 seeds (qualification for the final) each nation has:

Men:

USA: 20

Australia: 10

France: 10

GB: 9

China: 8

Germany: 8

Italy: 7

Japan: 6

Hungary: 4

Canada: 4

Ukraine: 3

Netherlands: 3

Switzerland: 3

Greece: 3

Romania: 2

Ireland: 2

Spain: 2

South Korea: 2

Austria: 1

Lithuania: 1

Brazil: 1

Poland: 1

New Zealand: 1

Number of nations: 23

 

Women:

USA: 25

Australia: 21

China: 15

Canada: 10

Germany: 4

Italy: 4

Netherlands: 4

GB: 4

Japan: 3

New Zealand: 3

France: 2

Hong Kong: 2

Sweden: 2

Israel: 2

South Africa: 2

Ireland: 2

Hungary: 1

Brazil: 1

Bosnia: 1

Poland: 1

Lithuania: 1

Denmark: 1

Czech Republic: 1

Number of nations: 23
 

Men + Women:

USA: 45

Australia: 31

China: 23

Canada: 14

GB: 13

Germany: 12

France: 12

Italy: 11

Japan: 9

Netherlands: 7

Hungary: 5

Ireland: 4

New Zealand: 4

Ukraine: 3

Switzerland: 3

Greece: 3

Romania: 2

Spain: 2

South Korea: 2

Hong Kong: 2

Sweden: 2

Israel: 2

South Africa: 2

Brazil: 2

Poland: 2

Lithuania: 2

Austria: 1

Denmark: 1

Czech Republic: 1

Bosnia: 1

Number of nations: 30

[intoronto 4,902]

Canada even finishes fourth in seeds. I s2g we are doomed to being 4th forever