GB Cycling 2024

[Dragon 1,894]

 

[RussB 189]

What do you think the plan is for Zoe for the Olympics ?

 

I’d love to see her in the ITT on the road and be involved in the track events (possibly as member of the TP most likely), similar to what I imagine Josh Tarling is going to attempt.

 

Her junior world time trial win in 2022 in Oz was one of the most ridiculous destructions I’ve seen in a time trial

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 1/25/2024 at 6:28 AM, RussB said:

What do you think the plan is for Zoe for the Olympics ?

 

I’d love to see her in the ITT on the road and be involved in the track events (possibly as member of the TP most likely), similar to what I imagine Josh Tarling is going to attempt.

 

Her junior world time trial win in 2022 in Oz was one of the most ridiculous destructions I’ve seen in a time trial

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I know that I am probably in the minority here but at this stage, I am not convinced she'll be in the squad for Paris. 

 

There are 4 places in the road squad and barring injury I'd say three of those places are already sewn up by Pfeiffer Georgi, Anna Henderson and Anna Shackley.  For the final spot, Backstedt will likely be competing against Claire Steels and Lizzie Deignan. From a performance perspective, Steels would have the edge - purely because she is the more experienced rider - but Backstedt had a strong Simac Tour in September so she could get the nod on the basis of development for LA and Brisbane. 

 

Similarly, I see the likelihood of her getting into the track squad to be slim. Like the road team, there are only 4 places available on the endurance team and the competition to get into the team pursuit is going to be fierce. Again, barring injury, Katie Archibald is nailed on for the team. For me it is difficult to see Backstedt displacing the likes of Elinor Barker, Josie Knight and Anna Morris and there is the potential return of Laura Kenny if rumours are to be believed.

 

GB are not going to do anything that would jeopardise the potential gold medal in the team pursuit, so if she isn't an established member of the team pursuit squad by now, then she wont be lining up with them in Paris. 

 

Likewise with Josh Tarling I am not convinced by these expectations for him to be doubling up on the road and track in Paris. He is going to be a genuine medal prospect in the time trial and likewise with Dan Bigham, Ethan Vernon, Ethan Hayter and Charlie Tanfield, they have a squad with genuine prospect of taking gold in team pursuit so it is difficult to see where Tarling would be able to break into the squad. Initially I thought that Tarling would only take part in the ITT and then Hayter or Vernon would replace him in the road race, but I don't think the schedule makes that particularly likely. 

 

[RussB 189]

Sorry I was unaware, all teams have a limit of 4 endurance riders on track? Therefore there is no ability to rotate your team pursuit; and they have to double up for the Madison / Omnium?

 

Tarling will be in the TP in the nations cup coming up in Oz is he not?

My own personal view is that having his engine gives GBR a genuine strong chance of beating the Danes and the Italians, without him the chances reduce.

 

On Zoe I do feel it’s much less likely she breaks through in the track endurance squad if limit is set at 4 riders. Knight and Morris were excellent in the recent Europeans in the individual pursuit, and I think Eleanor barker and Archibald are nailed on for places. Laura Kenny is a wild card, I think British cycling are under the assumption she won’t make it back…

 

I’m not sure I’d understand the logic of leaving Zoe out of the road team though. GBR doesn’t have a genuine medal chance without her in the road race or TT, in the time trial you’d have to imagine she would be a contender given her age and results over past 2 years ?

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 1/25/2024 at 6:43 PM, Rafa Maciel said:

I know that I am probably in the minority here but at this stage, I am not convinced she'll be in the squad for Paris. 

 

There are 4 places in the road squad and barring injury I'd say three of those places are already sewn up by Pfeiffer Georgi, Anna Henderson and Anna Shackley.  For the final spot, Backstedt will likely be competing against Claire Steels and Lizzie Deignan. From a performance perspective, Steels would have the edge - purely because she is the more experienced rider - but Backstedt had a strong Simac Tour in September so she could get the nod on the basis of development for LA and Brisbane. 

 

Similarly, I see the likelihood of her getting into the track squad to be slim. Like the road team, there are only 4 places available on the endurance team and the competition to get into the team pursuit is going to be fierce. Again, barring injury, Katie Archibald is nailed on for the team. For me it is difficult to see Backstedt displacing the likes of Elinor Barker, Josie Knight and Anna Morris and there is the potential return of Laura Kenny if rumours are to be believed.

 

GB are not going to do anything that would jeopardise the potential gold medal in the team pursuit, so if she isn't an established member of the team pursuit squad by now, then she wont be lining up with them in Paris. 

 

Likewise with Josh Tarling I am not convinced by these expectations for him to be doubling up on the road and track in Paris. He is going to be a genuine medal prospect in the time trial and likewise with Dan Bigham, Ethan Vernon, Ethan Hayter and Charlie Tanfield, they have a squad with genuine prospect of taking gold in team pursuit so it is difficult to see where Tarling would be able to break into the squad. Initially I thought that Tarling would only take part in the ITT and then Hayter or Vernon would replace him in the road race, but I don't think the schedule makes that particularly likely. 

 

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I think the advantage of Backstad and Tarling is they represent legitimate back ups to the Team Pursuit team - they won't be racing the final unless there's injury, but by taking them as the TP back-up on a RR quota, you free up a space to take a 4th sprinter. Backstadt is also a legit TT threat.

 

As for the Men's road race, the best three guys GB have for the parcours are all in other events - Hayter and Pidcock are strong 'classics hill' riders, Vernon's a strong 'classics sprinter', depending how the race goes. The men's RR, however is going to be absolutely lit, and GB may legitimately decide not to burn too many matches there - The news that Geraint Thomas is doing a Giro tour double suggests he won't be in paris after two relatively near RR misses; it maybe also suggests they aren't going to push pidcock for the Tour GC either.

 

Personally, therefore, if it were feasible, I'd pop Pidcock in the Road Race only and MTB, Tarling in TT only and back up for track. On the distaff side, I'm surprised Zoe's not considering MTB, as it happens, but I'd defo draft her in for TT, if not RR. Given the strong 'hour' riders in the GB pursuit camp, they don't lack imho for TT riders. To mangle a metaphor, the GB women's road team is a little bit of a case of too many indians, not enough chiefs - i.e. lot of strong team riders, not all that many on form finishers...

 

Anyway, I'd do that with a mind to including 4 track sprinters for the women, with Katy Marchant concentrating perhaps on the Kierin.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

PS on track numbers, historically, and I think this time, Countries with 4 full teams effectively have one 'substitute' per sex - i.e. a maximum of 16 riders (3+4+1 sub x 2) - hence the need to work out where the sub would do more good, and how doubling up might help in other areas.

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 1/26/2024 at 8:53 AM, RussB said:

Sorry I was unaware, all teams have a limit of 4 endurance riders on track? Therefore there is no ability to rotate your team pursuit; and they have to double up for the Madison / Omnium?

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If a nation qualifies a full team of riders they have 7 quotas - 3 for sprint and 4 for endurance. There is an option available to add an 8th rider from another cycling discipline if they want so it is not impossible that a road cyclist could take to the track (and vice-versa)

 

  On 1/26/2024 at 8:53 AM, RussB said:

Tarling will be in the TP in the nations cup coming up in Oz is he not?

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I haven't been able to find the entry list for Adelaide, but I know other people here have said that he is. He is in Australia and is due to take part in the Cadel Evans Road Race this weekend so it would make sense that this would be the Nations Cup event that he would participate in. Tactically it could be a great move for GB, if he is able to help steer the team to a win because that would pretty much seal their quota for Paris. 

 

  On 1/26/2024 at 8:53 AM, RussB said:

My own personal view is that having his engine gives GBR a genuine strong chance of beating the Danes and the Italians, without him the chances reduce.

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I agree that he has the potential to strengthen the squad but only if he is able to work within the team - putting together a great team pursuit squad isn't just about finding the 4 fastest riders, the technical aspects of managing the changes are equally important. Katie Archibald is an amazing rider, but we have seen on occasion that she can pull the team apart when they're not working as a coherent group. There is no point in putting a Ferrari engine in a Ford Mondeo chassis if all the parts aren't able to work together. 

 

Personally, I don't think they need Tarling to be able to beat Italy or Denmark. They showed at the Europeans earlier this month that they can beat both the Danes and the Italians. The only caveat to that win is the fact that the Italians didn't have their strongest squad in Apeldoorn so can't draw direct parallels. 

  On 1/26/2024 at 8:53 AM, RussB said:

Laura Kenny is a wild card, I think British cycling are under the assumption she won’t make it back…

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Initially I think the plan was for her to return at the World Champs in October but rumours started to swirl around that she was targeting Paris. 

 

  On 1/26/2024 at 8:53 AM, RussB said:

I’m not sure I’d understand the logic of leaving Zoe out of the road team though. GBR doesn’t have a genuine medal chance without her in the road race or TT, in the time trial you’d have to imagine she would be a contender given her age and results over past 2 years ?

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Anna Henderson was 4th at the worlds last year and took silver at the Europeans so a bit harsh to suggest that she isn't a medal chance (FWIW, I think  Chloe Dygert,  Marlene Reusser and  Grace Brown are more likely medalists than Henderson). Likewise for the road race - it's always a bit of a lottery and can throw up surprises but Henderson and Georgi will have outside chances of sneaking a medal.

  

[TeamGB 187]

Just thought I should throw this into the mix.

 

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/josh-tarling-aims-to-combine-road-and-track-at-paris-2024-olympics/

 

 

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:58 PM, TeamGB said:

Just thought I should throw this into the mix.

 

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/josh-tarling-aims-to-combine-road-and-track-at-paris-2024-olympics/

 

 

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Lobbed in like a hand grenade, sir! Well thrown.

 

I'm a bit surprised he's thinking Madison, though that might suggest a Tarling-Vernon team, with E Hayter concentrating on Omnium. Tarling is a huge engine room boost for GBR - especially if Ganna is doubling up. Would also suggest to me that Tarling won't do the RR. wonder if that might see Hayter doubling up too, as Viviani seems to be...

[RussB 189]

I will say Henderson rode a brilliant TT at the world’s but I’m not sure anyone will be tipping her to crack the podium in Paris. The top 3 at World’s are so strong, let alone a few other contenders that I expect to be in the mix. Road race is a lottery indeed! After the mess in Tokyo I expect the Dutch to be very strong in the road race though.

 

Tarling would have to work within the team indeed but I imagine him doing a similar job to Ganna