GB Cycling 2024

[RussB 189]

So you have Germany as favs for the team sprint in Paris right now?

2 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Mixed bag of results for  in Hong Kong

 

Great win for the women's team sprint - I think we've got our squad set for Paris now with Marchant, Capewell and Finucane. I'm not quite ready to jump on to the "they're the favourites for the Gold" bandwagon, but the team has to be regarded as the strongest medal chance in the velodrome. 

 

Men's elimination - great gold for Will Perrett who never looked in trouble but not sure it will be enough to get him a spot on the team for Paris.

 

Men's team pursuit finished in 6th. Sure it is disappointing, but this is definitely not our top team and they still did enough to finish ahead of Belgium and China so it's done no harm to Olympic quota spot. 

 

Men's team sprint continues to be the runt of the litter. Sure they didn't have Jack Carlin in the squad but I'm not sure that he would have made much of a difference.  have come on so far in the last 12-18 months that I don't see GB getting on to the podium when we get to Paris.

 

I’d very much prefer to be backing the GB horse at this moment in time. Feels like they are progressing and on an upward curve.

the value of “favs” tag this far out is limited though I concede, somebody has to be favourite !

[mpjmcevoy 362]

4 hours ago, RussB said:

So you have Germany as favs for the team sprint in Paris right now?

I’d very much prefer to be backing the GB horse at this moment in time. Feels like they are progressing and on an upward curve.

the value of “favs” tag this far out is limited though I concede, somebody has to be favourite !

All things being equal, the team with the leading individual sprinter tends to be favourite in these circumstances - not always, but usually. At the moment it seems incontrovertible that for the men that's Harri Levreyson and for the women it's Emma Finucane. Finucane, however, is relatively new in this position, so it is more difficult to assume she wiill carry it through. The keinin is a bit more of a toss up, and while a single supremely fit athlete can take a lot of the chance out of it - think Hoy in his pomp, there is room for ingenuity and downright sneakiness (think Kenny in Tokyo taking advantage of Glaeser's nervousness, throwing fake over the shoulders to get Glaetzer to miss him taking off - that's speed, but it also a careers worth of clever)

[RussB 189]

1 hour ago, mpjmcevoy said:

All things being equal, the team with the leading individual sprinter tends to be favourite in these circumstances - not always, but usually. At the moment it seems incontrovertible that for the men that's Harri Levreyson and for the women it's Emma Finucane. Finucane, however, is relatively new in this position, so it is more difficult to assume she wiill carry it through. The keinin is a bit more of a toss up, and while a single supremely fit athlete can take a lot of the chance out of it - think Hoy in his pomp, there is room for ingenuity and downright sneakiness (think Kenny in Tokyo taking advantage of Glaeser's nervousness, throwing fake over the shoulders to get Glaetzer to miss him taking off - that's speed, but it also a careers worth of clever)

My comment is limited to team sprint. The men's kierin looks likely to go to Harry but the women's is really open. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,592]

3 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

All things being equal, the team with the leading individual sprinter tends to be favourite in these circumstances - not always, but usually. At the moment it seems incontrovertible that for the men that's Harri Levreyson and for the women it's Emma Finucane. Finucane, however, is relatively new in this position, so it is more difficult to assume she wiill carry it through.

I don't disagree with your broader point, but I think in the team sprint, you can still lose if your lead-off and second line riders aren't strong enough - even if you have the best individual sprinter on your final leg.

 

I criticise others for sharing opinions that are little more than their hopes and wishes without them being backed up by data so I'll try and put my point across looking at the 2023 Worlds, the 2024 Europeans and Hong Kong Nations Cup - the last 3 occasions where the teams went head-to-head.

 

Opening Lap:

	Cyclist	'23 Worlds	'24 Euros	'24 HK NC
	Pauline Grabosch	18.945	18.650	18.935
	Lauren Bell	19.036
	Katy Marchant		18.750	18.763

From this small sample, whoever wins the opening lap goes on to take the title - it's not definitive but it's an important trend. One of the reasons I think Marchant gets the nod over Bell is her consistency - putting down 3 rides under 19 seconds - and in particular hitting 18.7 in the final 

 

Second Line Rider:

	Cyclist	'23 Worlds	'24 Euros	'24 HK NC
	Emma Hinze	13.289	13.455	13.485
	Sophie Capewell	13.394	13.725	13.815

Going through the data, I can't find an instance where Capewell is faster than Hinze- not saying it hasn't happened, I just can't find it in the data files I have. The question then becomes how close can Capewell go to Hinze. If she can keep it within a couple of tenths of a second, then she will put the team in a strong position. If it strays out towards half a second, then it becomes unlikely that GB will come out on top.

 

Third Line Rider:

	Cyclist	'23 Worlds	'24 Euros	'24 HK NC
	Lea Friedrich	13.614	13.794	13.929
	Emma Finucane	13.493	13.676	13.514

The stat shows Finucane's progress over the last year - she's now consistently the fastest of the 3rd line riders. If she takes over in the lead, I don't see Friedrich being able to catch her. If she takes over 0.1 - 0.2 seconds behind, I think GB would be marginal favourites but any deficit beyond 0.2 becomes more difficult to predict. 

 

So, based on this, I would argue that the team sprint gold will be won or lost with the second-line rider. Great though Finucane is, she needs to be in touch when she takes over -she doesn't need to be ahead, but she needs to be close.

[Rafa Maciel 1,592]

That's probably the most mature performance we've seen from Finucane as she defeats Friedrich in the semi-finals. She's had the speed for a while, but her tactical game is still a little hit-and-miss. Will be an interesting final against  Gros. 

[RussB 189]

Is there a broadcast available to watch for UK viewers? I watched round 1 on Discovery plus but there doesn't seem to be any available feed for Hong Kong?

 

The results indicated that Friedrich got given race 1 on a deadheat with Emma winning the next two. She should be able to take down Gros in the final from recent form...I hope she can deliver a good result in the Kierin too...with her speed she should be competitive in a very open Olympic event

[Rafa Maciel 1,592]

7 minutes ago, RussB said:

Is there a broadcast available to watch for UK viewers? I watched round 1 on Discovery plus but there doesn't seem to be any available feed for Hong Kong?

Coverage of the evening sessions is provided by myworldofcycling.com - there's a link on the UCI website. You have to create an account, but it is free.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

2 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

That's probably the most mature performance we've seen from Finucane as she defeats Friedrich in the semi-finals. She's had the speed for a while, but her tactical game is still a little hit-and-miss. Will be an interesting final against  Gros. 

Finucane, straight sets, not even all that close.

 

BC must be laughing themselves silly to have cottoned onto the increasingly uncontestible 'best female sprinter in the world' just in time for Paris, after years of Post Becky James torpour. (Becky was obviously meant, in BC terms, to lead this team for a decade, and her retirement left a vast hole...which has just suddenly filled up quite nicely!). Really did NOT see this coming a few years back...

[Orangehair43 251]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/68584772
BBC write up. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,592]

Clean sweep for Finucane as she easily takes the keirin title.