The biggest Paris 2024 medal chances for NOCs where users are not very active here :-)

[Noorderling29 156]

Very possible.

[CCB 523]

51 minutes ago, Noorderling29 said:

Noor Vidts: if she could not win a medal in Budapest in a weak competion, she’s never going to do it at World level.
There’s a big question mark about Thiam’s return. But even then, Anna Hall must be the favorite for Gold.
The Rowing LWX2 did not make it to final of the World Champs, and failed to win a quotum.

The 4x400 relay Men narrowly failed to qualify for the final in Budapest: time really seems to be up for the incredible Borlee twins and Belgium has failed to find comparable replacements. The women finished 5th, and that was in a race without the Americans. 
Of the five Judoka’s mentioned, only one won a medal at this years World Champs.

Kopecky winning 3 golds?: next year’s Road race is far less ideal for her than the one in Glasgow, she’s really not the favorite for the time trial, and her chances in the Madison are heavily influenced by if the doping suspension of her partner will stand or not.

Hockey: the women are just as capable as sucker punching the Dutch in the final as finishing 7th. Also, they haven’t always been lucky in qualifying. The men failed  to win their last two tournaments, and are in a bit of transition, with some of their older players retiring or not being selected.

show jumping really is completely unpredictable. In Tokyo Belgium won bronze in the team event on the back of the refusal of one the French horses (IIRC).

 

Belgium certainly has a lot of opportunities, but I once read somewhere for most teams only 1/3 of those,come to fruition.

I suppose the road race and the omnium are a "kind of" safe gold for Kopecky. And Evenepoel a safe one in the time trial. 

I agree that all other names are just an opportunity, so maybe my prediction of 10 golds is a little exaggerated.  

[phelps 7,442]

56 minutes ago, CCB said:

I suppose the road race and the omnium are a "kind of" safe gold for Kopecky. And Evenepoel a safe one in the time trial. 

I agree that all other names are just an opportunity, so maybe my prediction of 10 golds is a little exaggerated.  

no, Evenepoel is not a lock gold at all

 

Ganna and Tarling (plus Kung and maybe even those coming off a great TdF, like the Slovenians or Vingegaard himself) are even "more favourite" than the Belgian rider

 

I'd say the 3 real gold medal chances are Nafi Thiam in the women's Eptathlon, Kopecky in the women's Omnium and Casse in Judo

 

anything else is "possible", but nothing is for granted

 

 

[phelps 7,442]

1 hour ago, Noorderling29 said:

Noor Vidts: if she could not win a medal in Budapest in a weak competion, she’s never going to do it at World level.
There’s a big question mark about Thiam’s return. But even then, Anna Hall must be the favorite for Gold.
The Rowing LWX2 did not make it to final of the World Champs, and failed to win a quotum.

The 4x400 relay Men narrowly failed to qualify for the final in Budapest: time really seems to be up for the incredible Borlee twins and Belgium has failed to find comparable replacements. The women finished 5th, and that was in a race without the Americans. 
Of the five Judoka’s mentioned, only one won a medal at this years World Champs.

Kopecky winning 3 golds?: next year’s Road race is far less ideal for her than the one in Glasgow, she’s really not the favorite for the time trial, and her chances in the Madison are heavily influenced by if the doping suspension of her partner will stand or not.

Hockey: the women are just as capable as sucker punching the Dutch in the final as finishing 7th. Also, they haven’t always been lucky in qualifying. The men failed  to win their last two tournaments, and are in a bit of transition, with some of their older players retiring or not being selected.

show jumping really is completely unpredictable. In Tokyo Belgium won bronze in the team event on the back of the refusal of one the French horses (IIRC).

 

Belgium certainly has a lot of opportunities, but I once read somewhere for most teams only 1/3 of those,come to fruition.

I don't know where you read that Belgium is going to win 10 gold medals (or Kopecky winning 3) in my post (which is clearly the base of your answer)

 

my ranking only lists real medal chances (not gold, just medals), possible but improbable chances and remote chances (which would be big surprises in case they come, as I wrote)

 

and for those guys/teams that this year missed out on the qualification, nothing stops them to get it next year, the same for those who didn't perform well in 2023...they could improve a lot as much as they could even fail to qualify (or get injured)

 

and we all know that in practice the conversion rate between chances and actual medals is between 1/3 and half (unless you're San Marino in Tokyo )

 

it's just a "pour parler", hypothesis, sometimes hope...not science nor a serious prediction...so, you just can't consider only those who are truly expected to deliver in such kind of thread

[rafalgorka 1,446]

Yep, this is not a scientific thread for sure! 👍

[rafalgorka 1,446]

@Noorderling29 why do you think Paris route is less ideal for Kopecky than the one in Glasgow?

[Noorderling29 156]

46 minutes ago, phelps said:

I don't know where you read that Belgium is going to win 10 gold medals (or Kopecky winning 3) in my post (which is clearly the base of your answer)

 

my ranking only lists real medal chances (not gold, just medals), possible but improbable chances and remote chances (which would be big surprises in case they come, as I wrote)

 

and for those guys/teams that this year missed out on the qualification, nothing stops them to get it next year, the same for those who didn't perform well in 2023...they could improve a lot as much as they could even fail to qualify (or get injured)

 

and we all know that in practice the conversion rate between chances and actual medals is between 1/3 and half (unless you're San Marino in Tokyo )

 

it's just a "pour parler", hypothesis, sometimes hope...not science nor a serious prediction...so, you just can't consider only those who are truly expected to deliver in such kind of thread

See post by CCB, right after yours

[Makedonas 1,933]

Nice topic, thanks for creating it @rafalgorka 

 

I think it would also be interesting to see what people say about NOCs with active users that are not their own. For example I'd be curious to see what non-Greeks think about Greece!

 

Also I'm surprised no one mentioned tennis for Belgium. Elise Mertens is currently ranked number one in doubles, and Sander Gille and Joran Vliegen are both in the top 20 in men's doubles. I think Belgium will have a chance to win medals in both men's doubles and mixed doubles!

[rafalgorka 1,446]

Ok, let’s move on!

 

NOC #2 

 

CUBA

 

 

[rafalgorka 1,446]