Road Cycling UEC European Championships 2023

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 9/20/2023 at 4:21 PM, avlar said:

Thank you!

 

We are 21st in Women Rankings. And it means 1 quota, while 20th place gives 2 quotas. 

 

And the 20th place is occupied by some "***" nation. 77 points is the difference. I wonder if it reachable.

 

https://dataride.uci.ch/iframe/RankingDetails/34?disciplineId=10&groupId=2&momentId=168062&disciplineSeasonId=414&rankingTypeId=3&categoryId=23&raceTypeId=0

 

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I've developed a bit of an unhealthy obsession with these rankings so can give my opinion for what it is worth.

 

The truth is that whilst it is possible, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to close the gap. The Ukrainian team do not have any points from 2022 European Championship so anything they win this week will help increase their total.

 

Valeriya Kononenko played her part today after she finished the time trial in 10th place and picks up 3 points. In addition, assuming that they finish, they will also pick up points from the mixed team time trial. Worst case scenario, as there are only 8 teams competing, they will pick up 10 more points

 

Later in the week, 4 of your ranking riders will take part in the road race - Maryna Altukhova, Yuliia Biriukova, Valeriya Kononenko and Olha Kulynych. The ideal scenario would be for one of those riders to secure a top 10 finish and bank at least 50 points but realistically that isn't going to happen. I think they'll be pleased if one or more of them can finish in the points with a top 30 finish. 

 

So, at the moment it looks like Ukraine will come away from the Europeans around +15 points which would mean that they would need to compete in some of the remaining UCI Tour events to make up the deficit if they were to hoping to move up the rankings. 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Rafa Maciel

[avlar 372]

  On 9/20/2023 at 5:14 PM, Rafa Maciel said:

I've developed a bit of an unhealthy obsession with these rankings so can give my opinion for what it is worth.

 

The truth is that whilst it is possible, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to close the gap. The Ukrainian team do not have any points from 2022 European Championship so anything they win this week will help increase their total.

 

Valeriya Kononenko played her part today after she finished the time trial in 10th place and picks up 3 points. In addition, assuming that they finish, they will also pick up points from the mixed team time trial. Worst case scenario, as there are only 8 teams competing, they will pick up 10 more points

 

Later in the week, 4 of your ranking riders will take part in the road race - Maryna Altukhova, Yuliia Biriukova, Valeriya Kononenko and Olha Kulynych. The ideal scenario would be for one of those riders to secure a top 10 finish and bank at least 50 points but realistically that isn't going to happen. I think they'll be pleased if one or more of them can finish in the points with a top 30 finish. 

 

So, at the moment it looks like Ukraine will come away from the Europeans around +15 points which would mean that they would need to compete in some of the remaining UCI Tour events to make up the deficit if they were to hoping to move up the rankings. 

 

 

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Thank you very much for the calculations. Your analysis is really superb! And it looks very realistic.

 

So our only real chance if #20 in the Rankings marked as *** will not be allowed to obtain quotas by the 17th of October.

 

[phelps 7,792]

men's Elite Time Trial

 

Gold:  Joshua Tarling

Silver:  Stefan Bissegger

Bronze:  Wout Van Aert

 

 Stefan Kung had a terrible crash when he was racing for a medal, he came to the finish line hurt and bloody   

 

once in my life, I guessed the right winner...Tarling is absolutely phenomenal, it will be very, very difficult to beat him in any flat course time trial race in the next future

 

I only hope that Paris comes a bit too early before he's too good for super-Pippo Ganna     

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 9/20/2023 at 7:02 PM, phelps said:

men's Elite Time Trial

 

Gold:  Joshua Tarling

Silver:  Stefan Bissegger

Bronze:  Wout Van Aert

 

 Stefan Kung had a terrible crash when he was racing for a medal, he came to the finish line hurt and bloody   

 

once in my life, I guessed the right winner...Tarling is absolutely phenomenal, it will be very, very difficult to beat him in any flat course time trial race in the next future

 

I only hope that Paris comes a bit too early before he's too good for super-Pippo Ganna     

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Tarling's victory may be more important yet - as I understand it, it may have dragged GBR back into the 4 rider team contention.

[Werloc 3,171]

Aivaras Mikutis  was 5th in the U23 time trial. It's the best Lithuanian non-Elite level cycling performance since 2009. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 9/21/2023 at 9:36 AM, mpjmcevoy said:

Tarling's victory may be more important yet - as I understand it, it may have dragged GBR back into the 4 rider team contention.

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Unfortunately not. He's currently the 10th ranked GBR rider and whilst he will pick up 70 points for the win, this will take his total to 616, but that would only be enough to move him up to 9th, around 40 points behind Max Poole. If he could get a top 10 finish in the road race then it would probably be enough to get him into the top 8 and become a ranking rider, but the overall impact on GBR score likely to be minimal - maybe something in the region of +10 or +20. 

 

Realistically in order for the Europeans to have any impact on GBR's ranking points, it would require Ethan Vernon to secure a top 5 finish.

 

At the same time, there is a chance that GBR could still move into a top 5 position, but it is dependent on performance of France. France are not defending any points from the Europeans but their only ranking rider listed on the entry list is Christophe Laporte. If he can get top 10 finish, then he will bank decent points total. The real movement in the French score likely to come from Valentin Madouas who is taking part in the Tour of Luxembourg. He is defending 180 points having won 2 stages of the tour last year and ultimately finishing in 3rd overall. If he doesn't match that, then there is a chance that France will drop below GB in the next rankings.

 

Personally I think that whether GB get into top 5 and secure full team of 4 is likely to come down to the Yates brothers and which races they take part in over the next couple of weeks. 

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 9/21/2023 at 11:46 AM, Rafa Maciel said:

Unfortunately not. He's currently the 10th ranked GBR rider and whilst he will pick up 70 points for the win, this will take his total to 616, but that would only be enough to move him up to 9th, around 40 points behind Max Poole. If he could get a top 10 finish in the road race then it would probably be enough to get him into the top 8 and become a ranking rider, but the overall impact on GBR score likely to be minimal - maybe something in the region of +10 or +20. 

 

Realistically in order for the Europeans to have any impact on GBR's ranking points, it would require Ethan Vernon to secure a top 5 finish.

 

At the same time, there is a chance that GBR could still move into a top 5 position, but it is dependent on performance of France. France are not defending any points from the Europeans but their only ranking rider listed on the entry list is Christophe Laporte. If he can get top 10 finish, then he will bank decent points total. The real movement in the French score likely to come from Valentin Madouas who is taking part in the Tour of Luxembourg. He is defending 180 points having won 2 stages of the tour last year and ultimately finishing in 3rd overall. If he doesn't match that, then there is a chance that France will drop below GB in the next rankings.

 

Personally I think that whether GB get into top 5 and secure full team of 4 is likely to come down to the Yates brothers and which races they take part in over the next couple of weeks. 

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It strikes me Lombardia may be the big one, then

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 9/21/2023 at 12:25 PM, mpjmcevoy said:

It strikes me Lombardia may be the big one, then

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Yeah - could well be the case. Can't see a start list for Il Lorbardia yet, but at the moment PCS are showing both Yates brothers on the start list for Giro dell'Emilia on 30-Sep so they could end up doing both. 

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 9/21/2023 at 12:48 PM, Rafa Maciel said:

Yeah - could well be the case. Can't see a start list for Il Lorbardia yet, but at the moment PCS are showing both Yates brothers on the start list for Giro dell'Emilia on 30-Sep so they could end up doing both. 

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Lombaridia is a kind of race that might suit a Pidcock with his descending ability - the finish comes after a fairly sharp descent that Sean Kelly used to relish back in the day

[dodge 1,027]

Fwiw I think GB will easily stay in the top 5 and get 4 places. 
 

the last spot is between France and Spain but both won’t overtake GB