[OFF TOPIC] Coronavirus Pandemic

[up and down 82]

 

@Fly_like_a_don

 

 

I guess in South Korea they feel it is better to be safe than sorry later. That is why they are conducting this kind of mass testing every where to trace the patient early and give them treatment at the earlier stage. You see a lot of people do not know if they are with the symptoms or not. Some may have no symptoms but later tested positive. So South Korea is trying their level best to have early detection. However, it is very costly and expensive to do this mass testing on daily basis.

[Siddhartha Talukdar 234]

1 hour ago, up and down said:

 

That is why I said I pity India a lot and also Indonesia a lot. I understand the constrain in the country whereby they do not have enough test kid to test everyone. So lots of cases go undetected. In India I am unsure how is the situation right over there. In Indonesia it is horrible. Lots of patients have died. In Indonesia there are also patients who have died outside while waiting for their turn to be admitted to the hospital. Sorry to say best had to be Korea. South Korea is able to test lots of people on daily basis. They use early detections and mass testing to curb the virus from spreading.

Even if the numbers are under-reported its still quite low given the population size and urban population density. Here, the pandemic is still at an early stage and we intend to keep the curve flat. Its not feasible to test everyone so only those who arrived from abroad or show symptoms are tested. We are trying to beat the pandemic by lockdown and most institutions like schools, colleges, banks and offices are closed. Our PM requested everyone to follow a virtual curfew on Sunday.

The roads of Bangalore, the Silicon Valley of India and has the worst traffic in the world, has sparse traffic nowadays and its surreal to see so few cars on the road

[up and down 82]

1 minute ago, Siddhartha Talukdar said:

Even if the numbers are under-reported its still quite low given the population size and urban population density. Here, the pandemic is still at an early stage and we intend to keep the curve flat. Its not feasible to test everyone so only those who arrived from abroad or show symptoms are tested. We are trying to beat the pandemic by lockdown and most institutions like schools, colleges, banks and offices are closed. Our PM requested everyone to follow a virtual curfew on Sunday.

The roads of Bangalore, the Silicon Valley of India and has the worst traffic in the world, has sparse traffic nowadays and its surreal to see so few cars on the road

 

Thank you for your update here. 

[nitinsanker 202]

3 hours ago, up and down said:

Interesting news online.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-51922204

 

Coronavirus: Why is India testing so little?

The world's second-most populous country has reported about 182 infections

 

"We have a simple message to all countries - test, test, test," World Health Organisation (WHO) head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva earlier this week.

 

He was alluding to the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed more than 8,600 people and infected more than 207,000 in at least 159 countries.

 

"All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded," he said.

 

With 182 reported infections and four deaths so far, is India taking this advice seriously? Is the world's second-most populous country testing enough?

 

The jury is out on this one. India had tested some 14,175 people in 72 state-run labs as of Thursday evening - one of the lowest testing rates in the world. The reason: the country has limited testing. So, only people who have been in touch with an infected person or those who have travelled to high-risk countries, or health workers managing patients with severe respiratory disease and developing Covid-19 symptoms are eligible for testing.

 

Coronavirus: Is India prepared for an outbreak?
Why is a densely populated country with more than a billion people testing so little? The official assumption is the disease has still not spread in the community. As early "evidence" health authorities say 826 samples collected from patients suffering from acute respiratory disease from 50 government hospitals across India between 1 and 15 March tested negative for coronavirus. Also, hospitals have not yet reported a spike in admissions of respiratory distress cases.

 

"It is reassuring that at the moment there is no evidence of community outbreak," says Balram Bhargava, director of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). He believes Mr Ghebreyesus's advice is "premature" for India, and it would only "create more fear, more paranoia and more hype".

Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan: "India's going to be the next hot spot for this epidemic"
But experts are not so sure.

 

Many of them believe India is also testing below scale because it fears that its under-resourced and uneven public health system could be swamped by patients. India could be buying time to stock up on testing kits and add isolation and hospital beds. "I know mass testing is not a solution, but our testing appears to be too limited. We need to quickly expand to restrict community transmission," K Sujatha Rao, former federal health secretary and author of But Do We Care: India's Health System, told me.

 

What India can learn from the deadly 1918 flu
On the other hand, say virologists, random, on-demand testing will create panic and completely strain the feeble public health infrastructure. Increased and targeted "sentinel screening" of patients suffering from influenza and diagnoses in hospitals across the country can provide a better idea of whether there is community transmission, they say. "We need focused testing. We cannot do a China or Korea because we simply don't have the capacity," a senior virologist told me.

 

In many ways, it is all about India trying to battle a pandemic with limited resources. Experts talk about the country's success in defeating polio, combating small pox, successfully controlling the spread of HIV/Aids, and more recently H1N1 with rigorous surveillance, sharp identification of vulnerable people, targeted intervention, and an early engagement with the private sector to prevent disease spread.

 

Yet, coronavirus is one of the deadliest transmissible viruses in recent history. Every day lost in effective response means the looming danger of a surge in infections. India spends a paltry 1.28% of its GDP on health care, and that may begin to bite if there's a full-blown outbreak. Partial lockdowns in many cities - shutting schools, colleges, businesses and suspending some rail transport - proves that the government fears that community transmission of the virus might have begun.

The official assumption is the disease has still not spread in the community

 

Bracing for the inevitable, India is scaling up testing. Officials say existing labs are able to provide results in six hours and each lab has the capacity to test 90 samples a day which can be doubled. Fifty more state labs are expected to begin testing samples by the end of the week, bringing the total number of testing facilities to 122. Authorities claim that together, the labs will be able to test 8,000 samples a day - a significant scaling up. In addition, the government is planning to allow around 50 private labs to start testing, but they will take up to 10 days to procure kits. (Testing at state-run labs is free, and it is unclear whether the private labs will charge.)

 

Two rapid testing labs, capable of doing 400 tests a day, are expected to be operational by the end of the week. India has also placed orders for a million test kits, and will be possibly asking the WHO for a million more.

 

"On testing, the government response has been proportionate, taking into account scope, need and capacity," Henk Bekedam, WHO Representative to India told me. "We recognise that laboratory networks are expanding the scope and testing and they now include patients with severe acute respiratory infection and influenza-like illness detected through the surveillance system. It would also be important to look at 'atypical pneumonia' cases. If they are without any distinctive cause, then they need to be considered for testing."

 

India could be buying time to stock up on testing kits and add isolation and hospital beds
The weeks and months ahead will show whether these steps have been enough. "We cannot say India has escaped community transmission," Mr Bhargava says candidly. And if and when there is an explosion of infections and more sick people require hospitalisation, India will face formidable challenges.

 

India has eight doctors per 10,000 people compared to 41 in Italy and 71 in Korea. It has one state-run hospital for more than 55,000 people. (Private hospitals are out of reach for most people). The country has a poor culture of testing, and most people with flu symptoms do not go to doctors and instead try home remedies or go to pharmacies. There's a scarcity of isolation beds, trained nursing staff and medics, and ventilators and intensive care beds.

 

India's influenza cases peak during the monsoon season, and there is no reason why the coronavirus will not make a second coming, virologists say. "Given the way it is progressing in India, it seems it is about two weeks behind Spain and three weeks behind Italy. But that's the number of known cases. And without sufficient testing and shutting down large gatherings, the numbers could be a lot worse," Shruti Rajagopalan, economist and a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, told me.

 

India's traditional neglect of public healthcare will begin to bite if the disease spreads to its teeming small towns and villages. "This is a very unique and real public health challenge," says Ms Rao. And it's early days yet.

 

 

 

I think  Indian approach is 

 

 

1. Do a stringent control at entry points.... . 

 

We stopped entry of foreigners very fast . I think we introduced all visa entry stop as soon as possible : almalmost two weeks ago 

Testing at least temperature and quarantine of visitors also 

 

2. Test and check all contacts of any case as fast as possible 

 

3. Do social distancing to the best of ability 

 

-ves

 

There are some stupidos propagating cow urine etc.... But this is an aberration

 

Indians hate govt agencies so a few lied and tried to enter..... But luckily this is less now 

 

God knows what will happen

[up and down 82]

4 minutes ago, nitinsanker said:

 

 

 

I think  Indian approach is 

 

 

1. Do a stringent control at entry points.... . 

 

We stopped entry of foreigners very fast . I think we introduced all visa entry stop as soon as possible : almalmost two weeks ago 

Testing at least temperature and quarantine of visitors also 

 

2. Test and check all contacts of any case as fast as possible 

 

3. Do social distancing to the best of ability 

 

-ves

 

There are some stupidos propagating cow urine etc.... But this is an aberration

 

Indians hate govt agencies so a few lied and tried to enter..... But luckily this is less now 

 

God knows what will happen

 

Thank you very much for your update.

[MHSN 3,619]

I have a question, Why the death rate is very low in Germany ? because they test everybody like South Korea or there is another special reason ?

[Wanderer 1,726]

4 minutes ago, MHSN said:

I have a question, Why the death rate is very low in Germany ? because they test everybody like South Korea or there is another special reason ?

 

I guess they probably did not count those who had some other illness which got complicated due to corona virus 

[up and down 82]

6 minutes ago, MHSN said:

I have a question, Why the death rate is very low in Germany ? because they test everybody like South Korea or there is another special reason ?

 

The answer is here.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

 

 

    Germany’s coronavirus anomaly: high infection rates but few deaths

Widespread testing may explain low fatality figures in country that is bucking trend in Europe

 

The coronavirus crisis has hit Germany with full force. Infections are increasing rapidly, schools, factories and bars have closed across the country, and government measures to slow the outbreak are becoming more draconian by the day.

 

In one crucial way, however, the country is proving remarkably resilient: relative to known infections, the number of deaths has so far been minuscule. 

 

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, there were 13,979 coronavirus infections in Germany on Thursday afternoon, more than in any other country except China, Italy, Iran and Spain.

 

At the same time, Germany had only registered 42 deaths. Neighbouring France, by contrast, reported 9,058 infections and 243 deaths. Spain had 17,395 infections and 803 deaths. The US, the UK, Italy and even South Korea all show case fatality rates significantly higher than Germany.

 

The apparent anomaly has sparked debate in Germany and beyond, though experts warn against drawing sweeping conclusions. They argue that the country’s low fatality rate most likely reflects the fact that the outbreak is still at a relatively early stage, and that the age profile of those affected has so far been younger than that in other countries. Younger patients without previous ailments have a much better chance of surviving Covid-19 than elderly patients. 

 

The capacity in Germany is very, very significant. We can conduct more than 160,000 tests per week, and that can be increased

Lothar Wieler, Koch institute

 

Another factor that may help explain the variance is the unusually high number of tests being carried out in Germany. According to Lothar Wieler, the president of the Robert Koch Institute, German laboratories are now conducting about 160,000 coronavirus tests every week — more than some European countries have carried out in total since the crisis started. Even South Korea, which is conducting 15,000 tests a day and has been held up by virologists as an example to follow, appears to be testing less than Germany. 

“This is about capacity. The capacity in Germany is very, very significant. We can conduct more than 160,000 tests per week, and that can be increased further,” Prof Wieler told journalists this week. Test capabilities would be boosted not least in part by switching laboratories that specialise in animal health towards coronavirus checks. There was no sign that test kits were running low, Prof Wieler added. 

 

In the short term at least, mass testing feeds through into a lower fatality rate because it allows authorities to detect cases of Covid-19 even in patients who suffer few or no symptoms, and who have a much better chance of survival. It also means that Germany is likely to have a lower number of undetected cases than countries where testing is less prevalent. Indeed, one notable feature of the coronavirus outbreak in Germany so far is the high number of relatively young patients: according to data from the Robert Koch Institute, more than 80 per cent of all people infected with the coronavirus are younger than 60. 

 

“Especially at the beginning of the outbreak in Germany we saw many cases connected to people returning from skiing trips and similar holidays,” said Matthias Stoll, a professor of medicine at the University of Hanover. “These are predominantly people who are younger than 80 and who are fit enough to ski or engage in similar activities. Their risk of dying is comparatively low.” 

 

Hans-Georg Kräusslich, a professor of medicine and the head of virology at the University Hospital in Heidelberg, said: “In most cases the illness is mild and shows few symptoms, and we assume that the detection of such mild cases varies from country to country. In statistical terms that leads to a difference in case fatality rates.” 

 

However, Prof Kräusslich cautioned that the picture in Germany was likely to change in the weeks and months ahead: “We are still at a relatively early stage in the outbreak in Germany. The overwhelming share of patients became infected only in the last week or two, and we will probably see more severe cases in the future as well as a change in the fatality rate.” 

 

That note of caution is echoed by virologists and epidemiologists across the country. Most expect the different national case fatality rates to converge as time passes and more countries uncover the true number of infections. But experts also point out that Germany has at least had the chance to prepare for a surge in serious infections, with hospitals across the country expanding intensive care capacity and boosting staff numbers and the government buying up as much critical equipment as it can.

 

Last week, the federal government ordered an extra 10,000 life-saving ventilators from a German manufacturer, on top of the 25,000 that are already in place in hospitals across the country. The city state of Berlin, which has so far recorded 391 cases of Covid-19, is converting parts of the local trade fair ground into a 1,000-bed hospital for future coronavirus patients. Similar steps have been taken across the country.

 

“We are at the beginning, so we can still implement all the measures that have been called for,” said Prof Wieler. “We can still ensure that severely ill people can get treatment in the hospital.” 

[Siddhartha Talukdar 234]

21 minutes ago, nitinsanker said:

 

 

 

I think  Indian approach is 

 

 

1. Do a stringent control at entry points.... . 

 

We stopped entry of foreigners very fast . I think we introduced all visa entry stop as soon as possible : almalmost two weeks ago 

Testing at least temperature and quarantine of visitors also 

 

2. Test and check all contacts of any case as fast as possible 

 

3. Do social distancing to the best of ability 

 

-ves

 

There are some stupidos propagating cow urine etc.... But this is an aberration

 

Indians hate govt agencies so a few lied and tried to enter..... But luckily this is less now 

 

God knows what will happen

There are still some stupid people
https://www.indiatoday.in/movies/bollywood/story/baby-doll-singer-kanika-kapoor-tests-coronavirus-positive-she-hid-travel-history-threw-party-at-5-star-1657811-2020-03-20

[up and down 82]

3 minutes ago, Siddhartha Talukdar said:

There are still some stupid people
https://www.indiatoday.in/movies/bollywood/story/baby-doll-singer-kanika-kapoor-tests-coronavirus-positive-she-hid-travel-history-threw-party-at-5-star-1657811-2020-03-20

 

For me this lady is very selfish. How could she even think of doing this? Now those people who are together in the same place with her in the party will all be in trouble and those people at whole building too. How is the doctor going to test all of them? So horrible this lady. I think she is too selfish to believe.