Ireland Predictions for Paris 2024

[Cosmo Kramer 24]

Not too much change overall recently, I guess we're out of season for a number of Olympic sports. Dan Wiffen continues to post impressive times though, and his twin brother is doing well too. Will be interesting to see how far Dan can go by 2024.

 

Men's Rugby 7s are doing well despite the absence of Kennedy - hope to see him back next year.

[Oldira 88]

It’s been a quiet Autumn for qualification from an Irish viewpoint. Both Rugby 7s are in qualification spots so that’s a positive. Hockey teams too both seem to be improving too. When qualification windows start opening in the New Year things will start to move. Love following the qualification process and seeing how our shooters are faring in Obscure World Cups.

Wonder will we have a few new faces appear whom we had never thought of  as qualifiers.

[dodge 1,024]

So Wiffen is creeping into medal contention then? 

[Ogreman 355]

So I'm kind of late to the party here but sure look. I was going to make a blog which I may well still do but I might as well chuck this here anyway. Let me know if I have forgotten/ overlooked anyone even if they aren't likely to qualify.

 

This is how I see things as of mid-March 2023. Qualification has started in most sports so it’s a good time to get an early gauge on where I think we are. I currently have us at 118 projected qualifiers and would expect us to win 8 or 9 medals although our biggest issue at the last two Olympics has been converting contenders into medals. Still hopefully the Olympics being in Paris we see a similar boost to the one we saw in London.

 

I’m going to try to track what I consider to be our likely number of qualifiers(q), outside chances at medals e.g. (realistic but low chance of a medal) (o). Medal contenders (legitimate chance but not a current or projected favourite) (c), and medal favourites (Assuming no injuries or other unforeseen circumstances are highly likely to medal) (f)

Athletics- Adeleke is class, and our team is much stronger than 2021 but outside of Adeleke this team is probably overhyped. Should be better than Tokyo though at least.

Men's- 100m- Israel Olatunde (q)- does need get faster but will probably qualify on rankings.

             200m- Robert McDonnell, Leon Reid, Mark Smyth, Marcus Lawler

             400m- Chris o Donnell(q), Jack Raftery-maybe (likely part of a relay anyway)

             800m- Mark English(q), John Fitzsimons (q- maybe optimistic but)

             1500m Andrew Coscoran(q), Luke McCann (q- exactly the type of athlete that can exploit the ranking system, Nick Griggs? - my guess is too soon but that could age very badly)

             5000m- Darragh McElhinney(q), Brian Fay

             10000m- Efrem Gidey(q), Hiko Haso

             400m hurdles- Thomas Barr (q- he is getting old)

             Shot Put- Eric Favors(q), John Kelly*

             Long Jump- Reece Ademola (almost certainly a couple of years too soon)

             Rest of field events- We are so bad at these especially given these events are the ones the rest of Europe tends to medal in.

Women's- 100m- Molly Scott, Gina Akpe Moses(does she still exist?),

                  200m- Rhasidat Adeleke- likely will run the qualifying time by accident, interesting to see will she race here or just target the 400 especially given potential relays, Phil Healy (I think should just focus on relays)

                  400m- Adeleke (c- my instincts are to pump the brakes but man she is good, medal chances may come down to how many if any of the 400 hurdlers also target the flat 400. If Sydney McLaughlin and Femke Bol (and to a lesser extent Britton Wilson) target the 400 flat, medalling will be very difficult), Sophie Becker(q), Sharlene Mawdsley, Phil Healy(q).

                  800m- Louise Shanahan(q), Nadia Power

                  1500m Ciara Mageean (o- could probably qualify in 800 as well, will be interesting to see if her late 2022 form is a blip or if she can find it again), Sarah Healy(q), Georgie Hartigan

                  3000m steeplechase- Michelle finn(q), Eilish Flanagan

                  5000m- Roisin Flanagan

                  10000m-Sorcha Nic Domhnaill

                  100m Hurdles- Sarah Lavin(q)

                  Heptathlon- Kate O Connor(q)

                  Rest of field events- I mean not great but we have some young talent.

                  Relays- 4*400- Will be interesting to see if we target the mixed, women’s 4*400 or both. While the potential of combining pbs make an exciting women’s squad I have no belief in their ability to all peak at the same time. I’d prefer to qualify both and get the women outside of Adeleke to just race the relay but that may be difficult in practice to actually qualify both. (q- I’m going to be pessimistic and say we just qualify the mixed relay which would qualify Jack Raftery)

                               4*100- I mean we will try to qualify both the men’s and women’s squads.

Race Walking- 20km- David Kenny(q), Brendan Boyce(q-50k is gone so maybe he qualifies for the 20)                    20km/35k mixed relay -  Kate Veale

Marathon- Fionnuala McCormack(q), Anne Marie McGlynn(q), Courtney McGuire, Aoife Cooke

                       Stephen Scullion (q- if he doesn’t spontaneously retire),Kevin Seaward(q), Hugh Armstrong. – Not sure if I have the correct athletes qualifying but historically, we tend to qualify 4 to 6 marathon runners.

  Total 27q, 1o, 1c  

Artistic gymnastics- Rhys has to medal for himself more than anything, long way to go for the rest of this team but this is by far the healthiest situation that Irish gymnastics has ever been in.

                                   Rhys McClenaghan (f) - I’ll go back and forth between contender and favourite here but assuming he is over the falls after the World Champs win he should medal although despite being world champ he isn’t really scoring in gold medal range. World cup series was mediocre but crucially no falls and safely qualified for worlds.

                                  Dom Cunningham (q)- Big addition even if he is well past the days of him contending for major medals should qualify all-around.

                                  Adam Steele- At this point I’ll say no but he really isn’t very far away.

                                  Eamonn Montgomery- Floor- Difficult to see him qualifying after a disastrous world cup campaign meaning he most likely will not be at world championships, Best chance is probably hoping that the other 3 don’t all qualify and try to take one of the 2 floor spots at next year’s world cup series.

                                  Michael O Neill, Ewan McAteer, Daniel Fox(Is the one  of the three in the team for Europeans)- I mean it’s positive we are at the point that we can have pipedreams of qualifying a team, not good enough to get to worlds let alone the Olympics yet though.

                                  Halle Hilton- AA scores aren’t quite good enough, if she can improve slightly and go clean at worlds though has a chance of qualifying.

                                  Emma Slevin AA- pretty similar situation to Halle

                                  Rest of Women’s team- (yeah no).

Total 2q (probably an underestimation this could well be 4 or 5) 1f

 

Boxing- Well so many of these weights are up in the air. Potentially one of our most talented boxing teams ever but this team gives off way too many Rio vibes for my liking. This could fall apart quickly, or it could surpass London. This is one where I think being in Paris is a huge boon to Ireland.

Women’s- 50kg- Well we have the vet in Carly McNaul, European silver medallist at this weight in Caitlin Fryers and the young pretender and national champ in Daina Moorehouse (o- look we should qualify here whoever it is, probably a weight that any individual athlete might only get one shot, either qualify at the European games or someone else will get a chance at the world qualifying tournaments. My preference is Caitlin Fryers but I see the appeal of Moorehouse’s potential, McNaul probably would qualify but has zero shot at actually winning a medal)

                 54kg- Niamh Fay- European under22 champ 2022, consistently loses when she comes up against good opponents, Jennifer Lehane no pedigree but way better technique than Niamh Fay(q- this is a q cause Niamh is good enough to beat bad opponents although I don’t think she will make it at European Games, She is talented but I think her footwork is fatally flawed, needs an awful lot of coaching if she ever wants to win major medals, you never know if you get a good draw though)

                57kg- Michaela Walsh- (c- virtually guaranteed to qualify and decent chance she will be seeded at the Olympics, has consistently fallen short at world level but I thought deserved to beat Testa at Europeans last year and if she is seeded could potentially win a medal without having to box one of the other top four or five boxers in the world. My instincts however say she doesn’t win a medal)

                60kg- Kellie Harrington- I thought Amy Broadhurst may well have beaten her had they fought at any point over the last year but with that no longer a threat a second gold medal is very much on the cards (f- competition is largely the same as it was with the exception that Irish killer Mira Potkonen finally retired. Unless something significant changes this may well be gold should waltz through European qualifying)

                66kg- How did we get to the point where we have two world champions battling for one spot on the Olympic team. Gráinne Walsh should not get a look here sorry but an international judging panel (can’t believe I’m kind of praising quality of judging internationally but) would absolutely have given Amy Broadhurst that fight at the National champs. Plus, we are here to win medals and Gráinne Walsh isn’t good enough to win an Olympic medal. So Amy (possibly the best pound for pound amateur female boxer in the world right now but is undersized and always vulnerable to bigger opponents) or Lisa O’Rourke (World champion at her first senior international tournament- inexperienced but very talented and closer to her natural weight).(c- I want to put favourite here and I may well end up doing but I need to see more of both of them at 66kg. Amy winning strandja put her in the driver’s seat big time. My preference is Amy at 66 and Lisa at 75 but assuming that’s not possible I don’t know who I want to show up on the startlist of European games)

                75kg- Assuming Zaur Antia doesn’t decide that Lisa is better off at 75kg this will be Aoife O’Rourke something which he has shown no inclination of doing( we really do need a high-performance director). (c-Similar story to Michaela Walsh. Aoife should cruise to another European title although she will need it as only the top 2 in Europe will qualify and therein lies the problem Europe isn’t that strong and there are 1 too many boxers I don’t think Aoife will beat to realistically consider her for a medal, Again though be seeded and get a bit of luck with the draw and this could be a medal)

Mens- 51kg- Sean Mari has locked up the Irish spot but his chances of qualifying are fairly slim. I mean he has 3 chances but my guess he does not qualify. Our best chance is if Dylan Eagleson realises this is better than 57kg.

            57kg- Adam Hession (king of losing split decisions) has had the Irish spot for the past couple of years but doesn’t seem to be able to beat anybody, Jude Gallagher Commonwealth champ but not much else going for him(semi and final were both walkovers, decent chance he would have won anyway though), Paul Loonam inexperienced but national champ and the one recent European under 22 medallist that hasn’t got a shot a senior level yet and then there is Dylan Eagleson I would prefer to see him at 51kg but he has indicated he wants to try to get the 57kg spot so. Not sure what to make of him still fighting at 54kg to start the year but the Mirzakhililov fight at strandja is probably an indication of how his campaign would end if he ends up competing at featherweight. The most talented of any of these though(o- this is one where we might not even qualify but if we do we have a chance)

           63.5kg- Brandon McCarthy and Dean Clancy both decorated at underage levels but have done nothing at senior level. Better chance at qualifying than 51kg, this will probably be Brandon McCarthy over Dean Clancy.

           71kg Dean Walsh has thrown his hat in the mix but I don’t trust 3-2 domestic split decisions and he probably needed to medal at Strandja if he really wanted to get in amongst this. Aidan Walsh is still Aidan Walsh, every opponents least favourite fighter yet always leaves you worried about one more judge deciding to reward an aggressive opponent. He came from behind in one of his fights at strandja though which shows he can box on the front foot when he needs to, before having to pull out I believe because of a cut above his eye (c- close to being a favourite but it does seem like it’s just a bit too easy for this to go wrong)

          80kg Well we should have established this spot as middleweight European Champion Gabriel Dossen but we suspended him (seriously we suspended a 20 year old for smoking weed really?) The suspension is timed so he will be eligible to be selected for European Games but it remains to be seen whether they actually pick him or go with Kelyn Cassidy whose international record is actually very good. I think it will be a travesty if we don’t get Dossen to the Olympics, he is so good. 75 to 80 kg is a considerable step up but he has the frame for it(o- lots of hurdles but we should qualify an athlete here and if it is Dossen this is absolutely a potential medal)

          92kg Jack Marley is legit. I thought he did enough to beat former world silver medallist Castillo at strandja but (got the old win the third round for 4 judges but not the only one who had it split going into the final round). (o- I think Jack has serious come out of relatively nowhere to win a medal potential, qualification path is tough probably won’t qualify at Europeans but should qualify at one of the world tournaments)

         92+kg I mean there really isn’t much depth here globally. Might as well chuck Gytas Lisankas out there again and see what happens.

Total 10 qualifiers (this would be tops), 4o, 4c,1f

 

Rugby Sevens- Men's – Technically still in the race to qualify through the world series but unlikely given our current form. The Brits have been consistently improving so getting the one European spot available is far from a guarantee. If we lose and instead finish second or third, we would then be back in Final qualifying tournament (how we qualified last time) this becomes a much safer route if 3 of the 4 Oceanian teams qualify through the world series. If not, one of them will end up in that tournament. (12q(o) we are still the favourites to take the European spot and even if we don’t we would probably then be favourites to take the last spot) as for medal prospects we don’t look that good right now especially without Terry Kennedy (now based in Australia) weird to be reigning world bronze medallists and not feel like contenders for an Olympic medal but that is how it feels right now.

                         Women’s- almost certainly will qualify through the world series barring two straight bad tournaments to finish the season (12q(o)). Unfortunately, this has a lot more to do with a. France being hosts, b. Fiji struggling compared to last season and c. the Brits taking a while to get going. We haven’t won a medal all series and while the gap to the USA is just about bridgeable, I would give the likes of France a much better chance of bridging it. Our best 4 players (Murphy-Crowe, Mulhall, Higgins, Parsons) are up there with the rest of the big teams but unfortunately beyond that we are either too slow, too small, not technically good enough or in almost all cases some combination of all three.

Total- 24q, 2o

 

Rowing- The big one that will probably decide whether or not we have a successful Olympics. Notable that this teams worst regatta over the past 3 or 4 years came in Tokyo. The Brits are very strong as are the Dutch and Romania, but we have a really good case to be considered the fourth best rowing team in the world right now. Let’s see if that actually translates to the Olympics but we are in a good spot.

Mens Lightweight(2q(f))- Paul O Donovan has a chance to take the title of Ireland’s greatest ever Olympic athlete. Fintan and Paul haven’t lost in years, and no one really emerged last year to challenge them. If anything, things have gotten easier with the German boat breaking up. This should be gold.

Women’s lightweight(2q(c))- Qualifying here isn’t necessarily a guarantee. It’s just the top 7 that qualify at worlds and the parity here scares me a bit, but Margaret Cremen and Aoife Casey are in a good spot. Doubt Lydia Heaphy gets back in the boat given how much better the boat looked at worlds relative to world cup ii and Europeans.(Not on list for April trial so might have stepped away) Genuine chance at a medal but this boat class was incredibly close in Tokyo and will likely be again in Paris.

 

Men’s heavyweight-sweep(4q(c)) The four is in a remarkably similar spot to where the women’s four was in in 2019. Coming off under-23 success and an encouraging b-final appearance at worlds. Eight and a hair off seventh at worlds was very encouraging and my guess is that is the combination we see going forward (Dorney, Timoney, Corrigan, Kearney) although the likes of Andrew Sheehan, Adam Murphy, Fionnan Tolan (back in the squad apparently) and maybe even Daire Lynch could all push them (Did someone say we have enough athletes to realistically try an eight?)(This would be a terrible idea but still). My guess is some combination of the other ones end up in a pair. The pair is probably the easiest boat to qualify (top11 at worlds) and for most of the big countries is the weakest sweep boat. We absolutely could qualify the pair as well but need to see it first before I start projecting it to qualify (knowing Maurogiovanni its probably likely it either qualifies or isn’t considered good enough to even race and there really isn’t much of an in-between). An interesting note here is whether or not we target under23 worlds or solely focus on the senior events. This will become clearer when it becomes clear which World Cup (can we please go to more than one please!) we go to. The four should be thinking medal but does need to qualify first.

                                  -Sculling(2q(o)), (q) What a mess this has been the past couple of years. How did Ronan Byrne go from World silver medallist and favourite for gold at the Olympics to not being considered good enough to race a world cup last year is beyond me. Medalling in the double with Pazzaia and Colsh at under23 worlds was encouraging even if somewhat disappointing world championship results followed. Doyle and Pazzaia in the double (13^th but they were better than this besides top11 qualify next year plus 2 at FOQR so technically were in a qualifying position) and Brian Colsh in the single (15^th- top 9 +2 to qualify). If we want to have a real shot at qualifying and subsequently being competitive in the single, we have to just stick with one athlete and not chop and change so I would just ride it out with Brian Colsh. Qualifying in the single is surprisingly difficult given most of the thirty something spots go to smaller nations which we well aren’t. Still my guess is we do qualify. As for the rest of the group I like the idea of a quad. It doesn’t really have any established top crews in the world (maybe Poland but I don’t trust them) and a quad of Pazzaia, Byrne, Doyle, Lynch is in theory quite good. The likes of Sheehan and Murphy would also be in contention as well as potentially one or two of the lightweights (Gary O Donovan, Hugh Moore). However, given that Rowing Ireland hasn’t asked for clubs to provide quads for racing at the next trial I’m going to go out on a limb here and say we just see a double. Probably stroked by Philip Doyle but as for who is sitting behind him is anyone’s guess. Getting the right combination here could be the difference between really struggling just to qualify and having a realistic shot at a medal.

 

Women’s Sculling-(2q(c)) Who would have guessed that a double of Sanita Puspure and Zoe Hyde would win a world medal at this point last year? Hence my above relative optimism for the men’s double. It looks like we have added Imogen (not quite good enough for the Brits) Magner to the picture this year, but she is probably just depth. I wouldn’t change this double. Sanita’s age and past Olympic failures stop me from considering this boat a favourite although it is way better at this point than the fourth and fifth best crews in the world. I expect this boat class to get more competitive as we get closer to the Olympics although the Romanians will still win. Quads racing is so fun but not really an option here. Alison Bergin’s inconsistency makes me think she won’t qualify although I mean she beat Foester and set an under23 world best time in her semi-final at under23 worlds. She could potentially qualify but my guess is she falls slightly short. Great prospect for LA. She is in a similar situation to Colsh so consider this estimation a guess that one of the two but not both make it to Paris.

                Sweep-(4q(f)), (2q)- This four failing in the final at worlds make me wonder about this combination especially given that it also underperformed in the Olympic final although not to the same degree. We will almost certainly qualify a pair and a four but how we arrange things between the two boats will be interesting. The (Long, Hanlon, Keogh, Lambe) combination was at a pretty similar level to the worlds/ Olympics combination. Then again, the (Murtagh, Hegarty) pair was thoroughly unconvincing. Annoyingly no matter what the combination the Brits (Helen Glover is back again. Let’s see how that goes) just seem to be better than us and gold is unlikely as a result but the four should medal and the pair should comfortably qualify. The challenge is finding a way to either win in the four or get the pair to medal contention as well.

Total- 19q 1o, 3c, 2f

 

Aquatics- So this is what I can figure out. I haven’t really figured out how you are supposed to follow swimming. Such a strange sporting structure for such a simple sport. I have based these on the times that have been swum since 2020.

Anyway, for the Olympics qualification Swim Ireland have said that if anyone gets an invite based on an Olympic consideration time (I’ll just call it a B time) they will accept it given the increase in difficulty. Of course, no guarantee of getting an invite.

Men- Daniel Wiffen (c,o)- Amazing that pretty much out of nowhere we have a genuine contender in swimming. He has swum inside the A- standard time in all three of the long-distance events. Should be in the mix to make a final in the 800 free and is right there for a medal in the 1500.

         Liam Custer, Calum Bain -50 free. Both have pbs just outside the B standard time. Either could qualify but probably neither will

         Shane Ryan-(q) Still going strong. Will be close to that A time in the 100 back (53.74 compared to Shane Ryans best recent time of 53.74). Might swim a B time in the 100 fly.

         Shane Ferguson- 3 tenths outside the B time in the 100 back. Probably won’t qualify.

         Darragh Greene-(q) Shows the increase in standard of the qualification times. Would need to improve his national records by .27 seconds in the 100 breast or .37s I the 200. Should swim B times at least but might be relying on an invitation based off those times.

         Eoin Corby- slightly slower than Darragh in both the 100 and 200 breaststroke. Might swim a b time but unlikely to qualify.

 

Women- Danielle Hill(q)- Just outside the b time in the 50 and 100 free. Inside the b time but outside the A standard in the 100 back. Pb in that event though and will likely qualify.

               Grace Hodgins- more of a projection based on her age(recently turned 18) rather than her current times actually being in with a chance. 22 seconds outside the a time in the 800 free and 50s in the 1500.

               Mona McSharry(q)- will once again be competing for a spot in the 100-breaststroke final. Would need a pb to hit the b time in the 200.

               Niamh Coyne- Not far off the b time in the 100 breast but a long way off the a standard.

               Ellen Walshe-(q) Needs a 0.5s pb in the 200 IM to qualify but would likely be already swimming that kind of time if it wasn’t for her injury/illness struggles last year. Has a chance at the b times in the 100, 200 fly and 400 IM.

Relays- Chances here are significantly hindered by Jack McMillan’s defection to the old enemy. I suspect we will qualify one of the medley ones but I don’t know so I won’t count it. Would be an extra couple of qualification spots if we did.

 

Diving- 2024 worlds is where we will or won’t qualify unless we somehow make a final at 2023 worlds which is unlikely. Strange system so at this point very difficult to know where exactly we would need to finish at worlds. Probably top 20/21 or so but as I say ambiguous qualification system.

              Ciara McGing-10m platform

             Tanya Watson-10m platform(q)

            Claire Cryan-3m Springboard(q)

            Jake Passmore-3m Springboard. Still just 17, World junior silver medallist in the 1m springboard. I’d be pretty hopeful he can qualify given that diving as far as I know doesn’t have that big jump between seniors and juniors.

 

 

Cycling- Road men- (2o) So the Olympics have decided to consider the road race like an individual event and not the team sport that it is. Actually, wtf how did the UCI agree to this. Route hasn’t been released yet as far as I know but it starts and finishes in central Paris, so it is likely to be quite flat. Sam Bennett should have a chance here if it was a sprint (provided he is still in form- will be mid-thirties by the time these Olympics come round). Unfortunately given the miniscule team sizes (5*4,5*3,10*2,35*1(yeah really)) controlling this race will be difficult and we won’t actually get a bunch sprint, at least not one that looks remotely like any other bunch sprints do. Depending on Sammy’s form this could be good or bad. We need to get into the top 20 this season to get a second rider probably Ryan Mullen but maybe Ben Healy. Depends on time trial form and how the road race is. We probably will do this although Eddie Dunbar and Ben Healy both picking up early season injuries and missing a couple of months is tough and means this could end up being very close. Update Ben is now back and just got his first pro win.

              -Road Women- (q)We will get one spot here in the road race but probably not a time trial spot. This probably ends up being between Megan Armitage and Imogen Cotter given our other top female riders are all in the team pursuit setup.

              - Mountain Biking- Unfortunately no

              - BMX- I mean we have an athlete to mention in Ryan Henderson. He won’t qualify though.

              - Track women-(4/5q) (o) We are looking likely to qualify a team pursuit squad which is big. We probably won’t be that competitive but it’s a good step especially given the velodrome is finally getting built. We also get a spot in the madison and the omnium. Considering the madison an outside chance at a medal is a bet on the chaotic nature of the race and the potential of the likes of Mia Griffin and Lara Gillespie. Orla Walsh has an outside chance of qualifying in the sprint events.

             - Track men- (q) JB murphy is pretty good but it takes two to tango and we don’t have a partner for him in the madison. He can still qualify individually for the omnium though. We now have Conor Rowley as a maybe in the sprints as well.

Total- 8q 2o- We can medal on the track in the future if we just bloody invest in it. Getting a team pursuit team to the Olympics is a big step but we need to make sure it isn’t a once off. It would hurt us, but I would much prefer if the road races were like 16 teams of five plus universality paces or something rather than this nonsense.

 

Hockey- I don’t know follow hockey particularly closely but we are still in with a chance of qualifying either of the 2 teams. France being hosts really doesn’t help us here in the women (I thought it hurt the men too but might end up helping us). Would be great if we could sneak one of the two teams through. Probably break the number of qualifiers for Tokyo if we do. Most of the qualifiers are decided at two qualification tournaments in early 2024 (2 groups of eight where the top 3 qualify)

Women- We are already guaranteed a spot at one of the Olympic qualifying tournaments by virtue of being qualifies for Eurohockey 2023. Whether or not we qualify could come down to who we are drawn with.

Men- As I understand we need a top 2 finish at Eurohockey ii in July to qualify for the Olympic qualifying tournament (7 European spots so if we finish 2^nd we would rank 10^th – winner of Eurohockey qualifies directly to Olympics, France already qualified as hosts and Wales are ineligible). From there it would still be an uphill task to actually qualify but we are very much still in the hunt.

 

Taekwondo- Jack Wooley(c) He is sixth in the rankings right now needs top five to qualify the comfortable way. Needs a jump to get from where he is to actually medalling but hopefully the Tokyo experience stood to him.

 

Judo- Joshua Green- 73kg-  Not particularly close but not out of contention.

          Rachael Hawkes- 70kg- Also not currently in a qualifying position but closer than Joshua.

 

Badminton Nhat Nguyen(q)- he is improving. Unlikely to get to the point where we can think about medals but is certainly good enough to win a match or two. Qualification period starts in May and lasts a year.

                    Rachael Darragh(q)- Currently ranked 72^nd in the world which would be just inside where she needs to be (top 34/35(depends on host country, continent and universality places) but with double nations in top 16). I think she is 30^th out of eligible qualifiers.

                  Mens doubles- Joshua Magee and Paul Reynolds. Currently 56^th in the world and I believe 20^th of eligible Olympic qualifiers (16 to qualify but nations can qualify 2 in top 8). Again, would take a significant leap to get there but certainly not out of the question.

                 Women’s doubles- Kate Frost and Moya Ryan. Currently 52^nd in the world. Only top 16 to qualify but again most of the athletes ahead of them are ineligible. (I think currently 24^th ranked of potential Olympic qualifiers. Probably too far away but if they make a jump next year.)

 

Equestrian- not my strongest area

                    Show jumping- (3Q) (2o)great to get qualification out of the way at the first opportunity and we’re closer to the medals than we have been in the past. I hope we can get there.

                    Eventing- (3Q) (o) I hope I’m being conservative only considering Cathal Daniels as an outside chance at a medal. Again, great to qualify the team early but we are still stuck a little too far away from being actual contenders as a team.

                   Dressage- (q)- It would be great to qualify a team after the Tokyo debacle but unfortunately not going to happen we just qualify one athlete although I believe it’s possible we could qualify two.

 

Canoeing- Slalom why do all our good canoers compete in the same event?

                 C1- Liam Jegou(q), Robert Hendrick, Jake Cochrane

                 K1- Noel Hendrick

                 Sprint- Jenny Egan- Not a sprinter

 

Golf-Mens(2q(2c))- it would be really disappointing if we go through a third successive Olympics without winning a golf medal. Too early to start judging form but I think the near miss in Tokyo will fuel Rory to a medal here. Shane should be the second qualifier but there isn’t that much of a gap between him and Seamus Power. I really wish they would change the format here rather than just another golf tournament. Why not have like a foursome/fourballs match play tournament. Would be so entertaining and make it a unique event.  

   Women’s- (2q(c),(o)) Hopefully Leona Maguire will be one of the favourites by the time this comes around. Second representative will likely still be Stephanie Meadow.

 

Sailing Finn Lynch- ILCA 7-(o), Ewan McMahon, Rocco Wright

            Eve McMahon-ILCA 6-(o)

            Robert Dickson and Sean Waddilove- 49er(2q), Seafra Guilfoyle and Johnny Durcan

            Probably the sport we could make the most gains in if we just invested in it a bit. It could make a similar jump to rowing. We really should be able to qualify more than three boats but at this point isn’t even guaranteed we manage that.

 

Shooting- Aoife Gormally- Currently just on the outside looking in at qualification but it is still early in the process.

 

Modern pentathlon- Natalya Coyle(o)- Still hasn’t competed since Tokyo unclear at this point if she will be back but should be back up towards the top of proceedings if she is back.

                                   Sive Brassil- Hasn’t really kicked up a gear. She is still in a similar spot to where she was leading up to Tokyo. Will likely be close whether or not she qualifies.

 

Triathlon- Carolyn Hayes(q)- Assuming she is back.

                  Russell White- maybe

 

Sport	24/03/2023 E(q)	Qualified	Chances at medal	Medal contenders	Medal favourites
Artistic Gymnastics	2	0	0	0	1
Athletics	26	0	0	1	0
Badminton	2	0	0	0	0
Boxing	10	0	4	4	1
Canoeing	1	0	0	0	0
Cycling	8	0	2	0	0
Diving	2	0	0	0	0
Equestrian	7	6	3	0	0
Golf	4	0	1	3	0
Hockey	0	0	0	0	0
Judo	0	0	0	0	0
Modern pentathlon	1	0	1	0	0
Rowing	19	0	1	3	2
Rugby Sevens	24	0	2	0	0
Sailing	4	0	2	0	0
Shooting	0	0	0	0	0
Swimming	6	0	1	1	0
Taekwondo	1	0	0	1	0
Triathlon	1	0	0	0	0
Total	118	6	17	13	4

[dodge 1,024]

Interesting summation. Just on the swimming, it’s worth noting that Irish swimmers can only achieve the times at the Irish open, the world championships, or a likely qualifying event in 2024

[Oldira 88]

On 3/25/2023 at 8:28 PM, Ogreman said:

So I'm kind of late to the party here but sure look. I was going to make a blog which I may well still do but I might as well chuck this here anyway. Let me know if I have forgotten/ overlooked anyone even if they aren't likely to qualify.

 

This is how I see things as of mid-March 2023. Qualification has started in most sports so it’s a good time to get an early gauge on where I think we are. I currently have us at 118 projected qualifiers and would expect us to win 8 or 9 medals although our biggest issue at the last two Olympics has been converting contenders into medals. Still hopefully the Olympics being in Paris we see a similar boost to the one we saw in London.

 

I’m going to try to track what I consider to be our likely number of qualifiers(q), outside chances at medals e.g. (realistic but low chance of a medal) (o). Medal contenders (legitimate chance but not a current or projected favourite) (c), and medal favourites (Assuming no injuries or other unforeseen circumstances are highly likely to medal) (f)

Athletics- Adeleke is class, and our team is much stronger than 2021 but outside of Adeleke this team is probably overhyped. Should be better than Tokyo though at least.

Men's- 100m- Israel Olatunde (q)- does need get faster but will probably qualify on rankings.

             200m- Robert McDonnell, Leon Reid, Mark Smyth, Marcus Lawler

             400m- Chris o Donnell(q), Jack Raftery-maybe (likely part of a relay anyway)

             800m- Mark English(q), John Fitzsimons (q- maybe optimistic but)

             1500m Andrew Coscoran(q), Luke McCann (q- exactly the type of athlete that can exploit the ranking system, Nick Griggs? - my guess is too soon but that could age very badly)

             5000m- Darragh McElhinney(q), Brian Fay

             10000m- Efrem Gidey(q), Hiko Haso

             400m hurdles- Thomas Barr (q- he is getting old)

             Shot Put- Eric Favors(q), John Kelly*

             Long Jump- Reece Ademola (almost certainly a couple of years too soon)

             Rest of field events- We are so bad at these especially given these events are the ones the rest of Europe tends to medal in.

Women's- 100m- Molly Scott, Gina Akpe Moses(does she still exist?),

                  200m- Rhasidat Adeleke- likely will run the qualifying time by accident, interesting to see will she race here or just target the 400 especially given potential relays, Phil Healy (I think should just focus on relays)

                  400m- Adeleke (c- my instincts are to pump the brakes but man she is good, medal chances may come down to how many if any of the 400 hurdlers also target the flat 400. If Sydney McLaughlin and Femke Bol (and to a lesser extent Britton Wilson) target the 400 flat, medalling will be very difficult), Sophie Becker(q), Sharlene Mawdsley, Phil Healy(q).

                  800m- Louise Shanahan(q), Nadia Power

                  1500m Ciara Mageean (o- could probably qualify in 800 as well, will be interesting to see if her late 2022 form is a blip or if she can find it again), Sarah Healy(q), Georgie Hartigan

                  3000m steeplechase- Michelle finn(q), Eilish Flanagan

                  5000m- Roisin Flanagan

                  10000m-Sorcha Nic Domhnaill

                  100m Hurdles- Sarah Lavin(q)

                  Heptathlon- Kate O Connor(q)

                  Rest of field events- I mean not great but we have some young talent.

                  Relays- 4*400- Will be interesting to see if we target the mixed, women’s 4*400 or both. While the potential of combining pbs make an exciting women’s squad I have no belief in their ability to all peak at the same time. I’d prefer to qualify both and get the women outside of Adeleke to just race the relay but that may be difficult in practice to actually qualify both. (q- I’m going to be pessimistic and say we just qualify the mixed relay which would qualify Jack Raftery)

                               4*100- I mean we will try to qualify both the men’s and women’s squads.

Race Walking- 20km- David Kenny(q), Brendan Boyce(q-50k is gone so maybe he qualifies for the 20)                    20km/35k mixed relay -  Kate Veale

Marathon- Fionnuala McCormack(q), Anne Marie McGlynn(q), Courtney McGuire, Aoife Cooke

                       Stephen Scullion (q- if he doesn’t spontaneously retire),Kevin Seaward(q), Hugh Armstrong. – Not sure if I have the correct athletes qualifying but historically, we tend to qualify 4 to 6 marathon runners.

  Total 27q, 1o, 1c  

Artistic gymnastics- Rhys has to medal for himself more than anything, long way to go for the rest of this team but this is by far the healthiest situation that Irish gymnastics has ever been in.

                                   Rhys McClenaghan (f) - I’ll go back and forth between contender and favourite here but assuming he is over the falls after the World Champs win he should medal although despite being world champ he isn’t really scoring in gold medal range. World cup series was mediocre but crucially no falls and safely qualified for worlds.

                                  Dom Cunningham (q)- Big addition even if he is well past the days of him contending for major medals should qualify all-around.

                                  Adam Steele- At this point I’ll say no but he really isn’t very far away.

                                  Eamonn Montgomery- Floor- Difficult to see him qualifying after a disastrous world cup campaign meaning he most likely will not be at world championships, Best chance is probably hoping that the other 3 don’t all qualify and try to take one of the 2 floor spots at next year’s world cup series.

                                  Michael O Neill, Ewan McAteer, Daniel Fox(Is the one  of the three in the team for Europeans)- I mean it’s positive we are at the point that we can have pipedreams of qualifying a team, not good enough to get to worlds let alone the Olympics yet though.

                                  Halle Hilton- AA scores aren’t quite good enough, if she can improve slightly and go clean at worlds though has a chance of qualifying.

                                  Emma Slevin AA- pretty similar situation to Halle

                                  Rest of Women’s team- (yeah no).

Total 2q (probably an underestimation this could well be 4 or 5) 1f

 

Boxing- Well so many of these weights are up in the air. Potentially one of our most talented boxing teams ever but this team gives off way too many Rio vibes for my liking. This could fall apart quickly, or it could surpass London. This is one where I think being in Paris is a huge boon to Ireland.

Women’s- 50kg- Well we have the vet in Carly McNaul, European silver medallist at this weight in Caitlin Fryers and the young pretender and national champ in Daina Moorehouse (o- look we should qualify here whoever it is, probably a weight that any individual athlete might only get one shot, either qualify at the European games or someone else will get a chance at the world qualifying tournaments. My preference is Caitlin Fryers but I see the appeal of Moorehouse’s potential, McNaul probably would qualify but has zero shot at actually winning a medal)

                 54kg- Niamh Fay- European under22 champ 2022, consistently loses when she comes up against good opponents, Jennifer Lehane no pedigree but way better technique than Niamh Fay(q- this is a q cause Niamh is good enough to beat bad opponents although I don’t think she will make it at European Games, She is talented but I think her footwork is fatally flawed, needs an awful lot of coaching if she ever wants to win major medals, you never know if you get a good draw though)

                57kg- Michaela Walsh- (c- virtually guaranteed to qualify and decent chance she will be seeded at the Olympics, has consistently fallen short at world level but I thought deserved to beat Testa at Europeans last year and if she is seeded could potentially win a medal without having to box one of the other top four or five boxers in the world. My instincts however say she doesn’t win a medal)

                60kg- Kellie Harrington- I thought Amy Broadhurst may well have beaten her had they fought at any point over the last year but with that no longer a threat a second gold medal is very much on the cards (f- competition is largely the same as it was with the exception that Irish killer Mira Potkonen finally retired. Unless something significant changes this may well be gold should waltz through European qualifying)

                66kg- How did we get to the point where we have two world champions battling for one spot on the Olympic team. Gráinne Walsh should not get a look here sorry but an international judging panel (can’t believe I’m kind of praising quality of judging internationally but) would absolutely have given Amy Broadhurst that fight at the National champs. Plus, we are here to win medals and Gráinne Walsh isn’t good enough to win an Olympic medal. So Amy (possibly the best pound for pound amateur female boxer in the world right now but is undersized and always vulnerable to bigger opponents) or Lisa O’Rourke (World champion at her first senior international tournament- inexperienced but very talented and closer to her natural weight).(c- I want to put favourite here and I may well end up doing but I need to see more of both of them at 66kg. Amy winning strandja put her in the driver’s seat big time. My preference is Amy at 66 and Lisa at 75 but assuming that’s not possible I don’t know who I want to show up on the startlist of European games)

                75kg- Assuming Zaur Antia doesn’t decide that Lisa is better off at 75kg this will be Aoife O’Rourke something which he has shown no inclination of doing( we really do need a high-performance director). (c-Similar story to Michaela Walsh. Aoife should cruise to another European title although she will need it as only the top 2 in Europe will qualify and therein lies the problem Europe isn’t that strong and there are 1 too many boxers I don’t think Aoife will beat to realistically consider her for a medal, Again though be seeded and get a bit of luck with the draw and this could be a medal)

Mens- 51kg- Sean Mari has locked up the Irish spot but his chances of qualifying are fairly slim. I mean he has 3 chances but my guess he does not qualify. Our best chance is if Dylan Eagleson realises this is better than 57kg.

            57kg- Adam Hession (king of losing split decisions) has had the Irish spot for the past couple of years but doesn’t seem to be able to beat anybody, Jude Gallagher Commonwealth champ but not much else going for him(semi and final were both walkovers, decent chance he would have won anyway though), Paul Loonam inexperienced but national champ and the one recent European under 22 medallist that hasn’t got a shot a senior level yet and then there is Dylan Eagleson I would prefer to see him at 51kg but he has indicated he wants to try to get the 57kg spot so. Not sure what to make of him still fighting at 54kg to start the year but the Mirzakhililov fight at strandja is probably an indication of how his campaign would end if he ends up competing at featherweight. The most talented of any of these though(o- this is one where we might not even qualify but if we do we have a chance)

           63.5kg- Brandon McCarthy and Dean Clancy both decorated at underage levels but have done nothing at senior level. Better chance at qualifying than 51kg, this will probably be Brandon McCarthy over Dean Clancy.

           71kg Dean Walsh has thrown his hat in the mix but I don’t trust 3-2 domestic split decisions and he probably needed to medal at Strandja if he really wanted to get in amongst this. Aidan Walsh is still Aidan Walsh, every opponents least favourite fighter yet always leaves you worried about one more judge deciding to reward an aggressive opponent. He came from behind in one of his fights at strandja though which shows he can box on the front foot when he needs to, before having to pull out I believe because of a cut above his eye (c- close to being a favourite but it does seem like it’s just a bit too easy for this to go wrong)

          80kg Well we should have established this spot as middleweight European Champion Gabriel Dossen but we suspended him (seriously we suspended a 20 year old for smoking weed really?) The suspension is timed so he will be eligible to be selected for European Games but it remains to be seen whether they actually pick him or go with Kelyn Cassidy whose international record is actually very good. I think it will be a travesty if we don’t get Dossen to the Olympics, he is so good. 75 to 80 kg is a considerable step up but he has the frame for it(o- lots of hurdles but we should qualify an athlete here and if it is Dossen this is absolutely a potential medal)

          92kg Jack Marley is legit. I thought he did enough to beat former world silver medallist Castillo at strandja but (got the old win the third round for 4 judges but not the only one who had it split going into the final round). (o- I think Jack has serious come out of relatively nowhere to win a medal potential, qualification path is tough probably won’t qualify at Europeans but should qualify at one of the world tournaments)

         92+kg I mean there really isn’t much depth here globally. Might as well chuck Gytas Lisankas out there again and see what happens.

Total 10 qualifiers (this would be tops), 4o, 4c,1f

 

Rugby Sevens- Men's – Technically still in the race to qualify through the world series but unlikely given our current form. The Brits have been consistently improving so getting the one European spot available is far from a guarantee. If we lose and instead finish second or third, we would then be back in Final qualifying tournament (how we qualified last time) this becomes a much safer route if 3 of the 4 Oceanian teams qualify through the world series. If not, one of them will end up in that tournament. (12q(o) we are still the favourites to take the European spot and even if we don’t we would probably then be favourites to take the last spot) as for medal prospects we don’t look that good right now especially without Terry Kennedy (now based in Australia) weird to be reigning world bronze medallists and not feel like contenders for an Olympic medal but that is how it feels right now.

                         Women’s- almost certainly will qualify through the world series barring two straight bad tournaments to finish the season (12q(o)). Unfortunately, this has a lot more to do with a. France being hosts, b. Fiji struggling compared to last season and c. the Brits taking a while to get going. We haven’t won a medal all series and while the gap to the USA is just about bridgeable, I would give the likes of France a much better chance of bridging it. Our best 4 players (Murphy-Crowe, Mulhall, Higgins, Parsons) are up there with the rest of the big teams but unfortunately beyond that we are either too slow, too small, not technically good enough or in almost all cases some combination of all three.

Total- 24q, 2o

 

Rowing- The big one that will probably decide whether or not we have a successful Olympics. Notable that this teams worst regatta over the past 3 or 4 years came in Tokyo. The Brits are very strong as are the Dutch and Romania, but we have a really good case to be considered the fourth best rowing team in the world right now. Let’s see if that actually translates to the Olympics but we are in a good spot.

Mens Lightweight(2q(f))- Paul O Donovan has a chance to take the title of Ireland’s greatest ever Olympic athlete. Fintan and Paul haven’t lost in years, and no one really emerged last year to challenge them. If anything, things have gotten easier with the German boat breaking up. This should be gold.

Women’s lightweight(2q(c))- Qualifying here isn’t necessarily a guarantee. It’s just the top 7 that qualify at worlds and the parity here scares me a bit, but Margaret Cremen and Aoife Casey are in a good spot. Doubt Lydia Heaphy gets back in the boat given how much better the boat looked at worlds relative to world cup ii and Europeans.(Not on list for April trial so might have stepped away) Genuine chance at a medal but this boat class was incredibly close in Tokyo and will likely be again in Paris.

 

Men’s heavyweight-sweep(4q(c)) The four is in a remarkably similar spot to where the women’s four was in in 2019. Coming off under-23 success and an encouraging b-final appearance at worlds. Eight and a hair off seventh at worlds was very encouraging and my guess is that is the combination we see going forward (Dorney, Timoney, Corrigan, Kearney) although the likes of Andrew Sheehan, Adam Murphy, Fionnan Tolan (back in the squad apparently) and maybe even Daire Lynch could all push them (Did someone say we have enough athletes to realistically try an eight?)(This would be a terrible idea but still). My guess is some combination of the other ones end up in a pair. The pair is probably the easiest boat to qualify (top11 at worlds) and for most of the big countries is the weakest sweep boat. We absolutely could qualify the pair as well but need to see it first before I start projecting it to qualify (knowing Maurogiovanni its probably likely it either qualifies or isn’t considered good enough to even race and there really isn’t much of an in-between). An interesting note here is whether or not we target under23 worlds or solely focus on the senior events. This will become clearer when it becomes clear which World Cup (can we please go to more than one please!) we go to. The four should be thinking medal but does need to qualify first.

                                  -Sculling(2q(o)), (q) What a mess this has been the past couple of years. How did Ronan Byrne go from World silver medallist and favourite for gold at the Olympics to not being considered good enough to race a world cup last year is beyond me. Medalling in the double with Pazzaia and Colsh at under23 worlds was encouraging even if somewhat disappointing world championship results followed. Doyle and Pazzaia in the double (13^th but they were better than this besides top11 qualify next year plus 2 at FOQR so technically were in a qualifying position) and Brian Colsh in the single (15^th- top 9 +2 to qualify). If we want to have a real shot at qualifying and subsequently being competitive in the single, we have to just stick with one athlete and not chop and change so I would just ride it out with Brian Colsh. Qualifying in the single is surprisingly difficult given most of the thirty something spots go to smaller nations which we well aren’t. Still my guess is we do qualify. As for the rest of the group I like the idea of a quad. It doesn’t really have any established top crews in the world (maybe Poland but I don’t trust them) and a quad of Pazzaia, Byrne, Doyle, Lynch is in theory quite good. The likes of Sheehan and Murphy would also be in contention as well as potentially one or two of the lightweights (Gary O Donovan, Hugh Moore). However, given that Rowing Ireland hasn’t asked for clubs to provide quads for racing at the next trial I’m going to go out on a limb here and say we just see a double. Probably stroked by Philip Doyle but as for who is sitting behind him is anyone’s guess. Getting the right combination here could be the difference between really struggling just to qualify and having a realistic shot at a medal.

 

Women’s Sculling-(2q(c)) Who would have guessed that a double of Sanita Puspure and Zoe Hyde would win a world medal at this point last year? Hence my above relative optimism for the men’s double. It looks like we have added Imogen (not quite good enough for the Brits) Magner to the picture this year, but she is probably just depth. I wouldn’t change this double. Sanita’s age and past Olympic failures stop me from considering this boat a favourite although it is way better at this point than the fourth and fifth best crews in the world. I expect this boat class to get more competitive as we get closer to the Olympics although the Romanians will still win. Quads racing is so fun but not really an option here. Alison Bergin’s inconsistency makes me think she won’t qualify although I mean she beat Foester and set an under23 world best time in her semi-final at under23 worlds. She could potentially qualify but my guess is she falls slightly short. Great prospect for LA. She is in a similar situation to Colsh so consider this estimation a guess that one of the two but not both make it to Paris.

                Sweep-(4q(f)), (2q)- This four failing in the final at worlds make me wonder about this combination especially given that it also underperformed in the Olympic final although not to the same degree. We will almost certainly qualify a pair and a four but how we arrange things between the two boats will be interesting. The (Long, Hanlon, Keogh, Lambe) combination was at a pretty similar level to the worlds/ Olympics combination. Then again, the (Murtagh, Hegarty) pair was thoroughly unconvincing. Annoyingly no matter what the combination the Brits (Helen Glover is back again. Let’s see how that goes) just seem to be better than us and gold is unlikely as a result but the four should medal and the pair should comfortably qualify. The challenge is finding a way to either win in the four or get the pair to medal contention as well.

Total- 19q 1o, 3c, 2f

 

Aquatics- So this is what I can figure out. I haven’t really figured out how you are supposed to follow swimming. Such a strange sporting structure for such a simple sport. I have based these on the times that have been swum since 2020.

Anyway, for the Olympics qualification Swim Ireland have said that if anyone gets an invite based on an Olympic consideration time (I’ll just call it a B time) they will accept it given the increase in difficulty. Of course, no guarantee of getting an invite.

Men- Daniel Wiffen (c,o)- Amazing that pretty much out of nowhere we have a genuine contender in swimming. He has swum inside the A- standard time in all three of the long-distance events. Should be in the mix to make a final in the 800 free and is right there for a medal in the 1500.

         Liam Custer, Calum Bain -50 free. Both have pbs just outside the B standard time. Either could qualify but probably neither will

         Shane Ryan-(q) Still going strong. Will be close to that A time in the 100 back (53.74 compared to Shane Ryans best recent time of 53.74). Might swim a B time in the 100 fly.

         Shane Ferguson- 3 tenths outside the B time in the 100 back. Probably won’t qualify.

         Darragh Greene-(q) Shows the increase in standard of the qualification times. Would need to improve his national records by .27 seconds in the 100 breast or .37s I the 200. Should swim B times at least but might be relying on an invitation based off those times.

         Eoin Corby- slightly slower than Darragh in both the 100 and 200 breaststroke. Might swim a b time but unlikely to qualify.

 

Women- Danielle Hill(q)- Just outside the b time in the 50 and 100 free. Inside the b time but outside the A standard in the 100 back. Pb in that event though and will likely qualify.

               Grace Hodgins- more of a projection based on her age(recently turned 18) rather than her current times actually being in with a chance. 22 seconds outside the a time in the 800 free and 50s in the 1500.

               Mona McSharry(q)- will once again be competing for a spot in the 100-breaststroke final. Would need a pb to hit the b time in the 200.

               Niamh Coyne- Not far off the b time in the 100 breast but a long way off the a standard.

               Ellen Walshe-(q) Needs a 0.5s pb in the 200 IM to qualify but would likely be already swimming that kind of time if it wasn’t for her injury/illness struggles last year. Has a chance at the b times in the 100, 200 fly and 400 IM.

Relays- Chances here are significantly hindered by Jack McMillan’s defection to the old enemy. I suspect we will qualify one of the medley ones but I don’t know so I won’t count it. Would be an extra couple of qualification spots if we did.

 

Diving- 2024 worlds is where we will or won’t qualify unless we somehow make a final at 2023 worlds which is unlikely. Strange system so at this point very difficult to know where exactly we would need to finish at worlds. Probably top 20/21 or so but as I say ambiguous qualification system.

              Ciara McGing-10m platform

             Tanya Watson-10m platform(q)

            Claire Cryan-3m Springboard(q)

            Jake Passmore-3m Springboard. Still just 17, World junior silver medallist in the 1m springboard. I’d be pretty hopeful he can qualify given that diving as far as I know doesn’t have that big jump between seniors and juniors.

 

 

Cycling- Road men- (2o) So the Olympics have decided to consider the road race like an individual event and not the team sport that it is. Actually, wtf how did the UCI agree to this. Route hasn’t been released yet as far as I know but it starts and finishes in central Paris, so it is likely to be quite flat. Sam Bennett should have a chance here if it was a sprint (provided he is still in form- will be mid-thirties by the time these Olympics come round). Unfortunately given the miniscule team sizes (5*4,5*3,10*2,35*1(yeah really)) controlling this race will be difficult and we won’t actually get a bunch sprint, at least not one that looks remotely like any other bunch sprints do. Depending on Sammy’s form this could be good or bad. We need to get into the top 20 this season to get a second rider probably Ryan Mullen but maybe Ben Healy. Depends on time trial form and how the road race is. We probably will do this although Eddie Dunbar and Ben Healy both picking up early season injuries and missing a couple of months is tough and means this could end up being very close. Update Ben is now back and just got his first pro win.

              -Road Women- (q)We will get one spot here in the road race but probably not a time trial spot. This probably ends up being between Megan Armitage and Imogen Cotter given our other top female riders are all in the team pursuit setup.

              - Mountain Biking- Unfortunately no

              - BMX- I mean we have an athlete to mention in Ryan Henderson. He won’t qualify though.

              - Track women-(4/5q) (o) We are looking likely to qualify a team pursuit squad which is big. We probably won’t be that competitive but it’s a good step especially given the velodrome is finally getting built. We also get a spot in the madison and the omnium. Considering the madison an outside chance at a medal is a bet on the chaotic nature of the race and the potential of the likes of Mia Griffin and Lara Gillespie. Orla Walsh has an outside chance of qualifying in the sprint events.

             - Track men- (q) JB murphy is pretty good but it takes two to tango and we don’t have a partner for him in the madison. He can still qualify individually for the omnium though. We now have Conor Rowley as a maybe in the sprints as well.

Total- 8q 2o- We can medal on the track in the future if we just bloody invest in it. Getting a team pursuit team to the Olympics is a big step but we need to make sure it isn’t a once off. It would hurt us, but I would much prefer if the road races were like 16 teams of five plus universality paces or something rather than this nonsense.

 

Hockey- I don’t know follow hockey particularly closely but we are still in with a chance of qualifying either of the 2 teams. France being hosts really doesn’t help us here in the women (I thought it hurt the men too but might end up helping us). Would be great if we could sneak one of the two teams through. Probably break the number of qualifiers for Tokyo if we do. Most of the qualifiers are decided at two qualification tournaments in early 2024 (2 groups of eight where the top 3 qualify)

Women- We are already guaranteed a spot at one of the Olympic qualifying tournaments by virtue of being qualifies for Eurohockey 2023. Whether or not we qualify could come down to who we are drawn with.

Men- As I understand we need a top 2 finish at Eurohockey ii in July to qualify for the Olympic qualifying tournament (7 European spots so if we finish 2^nd we would rank 10^th – winner of Eurohockey qualifies directly to Olympics, France already qualified as hosts and Wales are ineligible). From there it would still be an uphill task to actually qualify but we are very much still in the hunt.

 

Taekwondo- Jack Wooley(c) He is sixth in the rankings right now needs top five to qualify the comfortable way. Needs a jump to get from where he is to actually medalling but hopefully the Tokyo experience stood to him.

 

Judo- Joshua Green- 73kg-  Not particularly close but not out of contention.

          Rachael Hawkes- 70kg- Also not currently in a qualifying position but closer than Joshua.

 

Badminton Nhat Nguyen(q)- he is improving. Unlikely to get to the point where we can think about medals but is certainly good enough to win a match or two. Qualification period starts in May and lasts a year.

                    Rachael Darragh(q)- Currently ranked 72^nd in the world which would be just inside where she needs to be (top 34/35(depends on host country, continent and universality places) but with double nations in top 16). I think she is 30^th out of eligible qualifiers.

                  Mens doubles- Joshua Magee and Paul Reynolds. Currently 56^th in the world and I believe 20^th of eligible Olympic qualifiers (16 to qualify but nations can qualify 2 in top 8). Again, would take a significant leap to get there but certainly not out of the question.

                 Women’s doubles- Kate Frost and Moya Ryan. Currently 52^nd in the world. Only top 16 to qualify but again most of the athletes ahead of them are ineligible. (I think currently 24^th ranked of potential Olympic qualifiers. Probably too far away but if they make a jump next year.)

 

Equestrian- not my strongest area

                    Show jumping- (3Q) (2o)great to get qualification out of the way at the first opportunity and we’re closer to the medals than we have been in the past. I hope we can get there.

                    Eventing- (3Q) (o) I hope I’m being conservative only considering Cathal Daniels as an outside chance at a medal. Again, great to qualify the team early but we are still stuck a little too far away from being actual contenders as a team.

                   Dressage- (q)- It would be great to qualify a team after the Tokyo debacle but unfortunately not going to happen we just qualify one athlete although I believe it’s possible we could qualify two.

 

Canoeing- Slalom why do all our good canoers compete in the same event?

                 C1- Liam Jegou(q), Robert Hendrick, Jake Cochrane

                 K1- Noel Hendrick

                 Sprint- Jenny Egan- Not a sprinter

 

Golf-Mens(2q(2c))- it would be really disappointing if we go through a third successive Olympics without winning a golf medal. Too early to start judging form but I think the near miss in Tokyo will fuel Rory to a medal here. Shane should be the second qualifier but there isn’t that much of a gap between him and Seamus Power. I really wish they would change the format here rather than just another golf tournament. Why not have like a foursome/fourballs match play tournament. Would be so entertaining and make it a unique event.  

   Women’s- (2q(c),(o)) Hopefully Leona Maguire will be one of the favourites by the time this comes around. Second representative will likely still be Stephanie Meadow.

 

Sailing Finn Lynch- ILCA 7-(o), Ewan McMahon, Rocco Wright

            Eve McMahon-ILCA 6-(o)

            Robert Dickson and Sean Waddilove- 49er(2q), Seafra Guilfoyle and Johnny Durcan

            Probably the sport we could make the most gains in if we just invested in it a bit. It could make a similar jump to rowing. We really should be able to qualify more than three boats but at this point isn’t even guaranteed we manage that.

 

Shooting- Aoife Gormally- Currently just on the outside looking in at qualification but it is still early in the process.

 

Modern pentathlon- Natalya Coyle(o)- Still hasn’t competed since Tokyo unclear at this point if she will be back but should be back up towards the top of proceedings if she is back.

                                   Sive Brassil- Hasn’t really kicked up a gear. She is still in a similar spot to where she was leading up to Tokyo. Will likely be close whether or not she qualifies.

 

Triathlon- Carolyn Hayes(q)- Assuming she is back.

                  Russell White- maybe

 

Sport	24/03/2023 E(q)	Qualified	Chances at medal	Medal contenders	Medal favourites
Artistic Gymnastics	2	0	0	0	1
Athletics	26	0	0	1	0
Badminton	2	0	0	0	0
Boxing	10	0	4	4	1
Canoeing	1	0	0	0	0
Cycling	8	0	2	0	0
Diving	2	0	0	0	0
Equestrian	7	6	3	0	0
Golf	4	0	1	3	0
Hockey	0	0	0	0	0
Judo	0	0	0	0	0
Modern pentathlon	1	0	1	0	0
Rowing	19	0	1	3	2
Rugby Sevens	24	0	2	0	0
Sailing	4	0	2	0	0
Shooting	0	0	0	0	0
Swimming	6	0	1	1	0
Taekwondo	1	0	0	1	0
Triathlon	1	0	0	0	0
Total	118	6	17	13	4

Thanks for that very thorough synopsis of our qualifying chances. Glad to see someone esle found our Tokyo rowing regatta below par. 

There seems no reason for the W4 disappoinging performance at last years WC. Also the implosion of our M2X in Tokyo has never been explained either. 

We qualified in 18 sports in 2020 but I can see at least 6 sports this cycle where we will need a lot of luck to get a qualifier..Hockey, Canoeing. Pentathlon, Judo, Triathlon and shooting.

 

[dodge 1,024]

Add 12 to the quotas today thanks to the women’s rugby team

[Oldira 88]

After getting to the 2nd Round in the World Championships Rachel Hawkes is now in a qualification spot by virtue of a continental quota..

[Oldira 88]

Ireland is now not sending a crew to the final World Cup event in Lucerne. This would seem to indicate that they are not going to try and qualify a mem 4 for Paris. Disapointing seeing as the men were 8h in last years world championship. I hope I am wrong but our rowing team in Paris might be a lot smaller and a lot less competitive than we hoped for at start of the year.

[Ogreman 355]

On 7/6/2023 at 12:45 PM, Oldira said:

Ireland is now not sending a crew to the final World Cup event in Lucerne. This would seem to indicate that they are not going to try and qualify a mem 4 for Paris. Disapointing seeing as the men were 8h in last years world championship. I hope I am wrong but our rowing team in Paris might be a lot smaller and a lot less competitive than we hoped for at start of the year.

The priority boat for the mens sweep squad seems to have shifted from the four to the pair with Ross Corrigan and Nathan Timoney who were both in the middle of the four last year together in a pair for world cup iii. Its only day one but initial results are positive for this new pair. The plan was I assume still to try and qualify the four and while not being fast enough at trials is concerning it's not the end (Might be for Ronan Byrne though). I don't mind the four not racing here if it wasn't good enough. It has two months to be ready for worlds. I just wonder why we didn't also enter a four for under23 worlds. John kearney, Jack Dorney and Adam Murphy are all still eligible at under23 level and Andrew Sheahan who was in the under23 four last year seems to have been kind of chucked in a single for that event. Its frustrating they're not in Lucerne but Antonio Maurogiovanni standards are basically you're good enough for the olympics or you don't race at all. The four can still qualify along with the pair although the goalposts for them may well end up being FOQR next year. It's a very young boat apart from Fionnan McQuillan Tolan and can improve a lot in a year.

 

Europeans was bad like really bad but I still feel really good about qualification and medal hopes for this rowing squad. It didn't seem like it because medal wise we were good at world cup ii last year but almost all of our boats improved relative to the competition as the year went on last year and I would expect the same this year. We have found a mens double that works with Philip Doyle and Daire Lynch, Paul and Fintan are back which always makes things feel much better, Women's lightweight double needs work if they want to medal again this year but i'm not worrried about qualification yet, the womens double,pair and four will all qualify although admittedly only the four looks like a definite medal contender and its a major question mark right now. Emily Hegarty is still injured but if we were changing the combination here I suspect she would be the odd one out. Imogen Magner came into the boat for Lucerne. My interpretation of that was they wanted to race the pair of Long and Hanlon together but it might be that Magner is actually a contender to race in the four. They posted the second fastest time of the heats this morning and all of their main competition is here outside of the USA.

 

Look if we fall apart over the next couple of days here and then none of our concerningly small selection at under23 worlds looks good i'll be worried but for now we have seven boats that I would be shocked if they fail to qualify, all but one of which at least in theory could medal. I personally would like to see us qualify an eighth, ninth or even tenth boat and well we still can. The mens single is up in the air and Colsh being back in the double for under 23s probably isn't a great sign. I still want a quad, I don't think I'm going to get my wish though. The four as outligned earlier could still qualify and has the athletes to do it and if Alison Bergin can medal again at under23 worlds in the womens single we are back in business there too. We should still feel great about this squad and expectations for qualification and medals should both still be very high well at least for now.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Ogreman