dodge 855 Posted September 4, 2023 #41 Share Posted September 4, 2023 So we've seen all the crews now. Men's four and quads have no chance really. Not much was expected. A B final would be nice for both of them but they're ranked dead last for now Of the possible qualifiers LW men double - won heat. Should be no problem qualifying Men Double - 2nd behind the USA. In contention for the final, but I expect them to qualify Men's Pair - 2nd behind Spain. A pleasant surprise. Very hopeful they'll qualify now LW women's double - 2nd behind Romania. Qualification on a knife edge but a very decent start Women's double - Excellent win ahead of Lithuania. Was worried about this very new combo but should qualify now. Women's pair - 2nd behind Netherlands. Full expect them to qualify now Women's four - 3rd behind GBR and Australia but they both expect medals here. A final isn't out of reach, but they're one of 9 crews who think they can get the 7 spots Oldira 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldira 76 Posted September 4, 2023 #42 Share Posted September 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, dodge said: So we've seen all the crews now. Men's four and quads have no chance really. Not much was expected. A B final would be nice for both of them but they're ranked dead last for now Of the possible qualifiers LW men double - won heat. Should be no problem qualifying Men Double - 2nd behind the USA. In contention for the final, but I expect them to qualify Men's Pair - 2nd behind Spain. A pleasant surprise. Very hopeful they'll qualify now LW women's double - 2nd behind Romania. Qualification on a knife edge but a very decent start Women's double - Excellent win ahead of Lithuania. Was worried about this very new combo but should qualify now. Women's pair - 2nd behind Netherlands. Full expect them to qualify now Women's four - 3rd behind GBR and Australia but they both expect medals here. A final isn't out of reach, but they're one of 9 crews who think they can get the 7 spots Agree with all this and I'd just add that if the LW2X AND W4 fail to qualify here I would fully expect them to qualify at the FQR next May. I did hote the Quads might have surprised us buit they were lower than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldira 76 Posted September 5, 2023 #43 Share Posted September 5, 2023 On 9/2/2023 at 3:14 PM, Ogreman said: M1X W1X M2- W2- M2X W2X LM2X LW2X M4- W4- M4X W4X M8+ W8+ 1 GER NED GBR< AUS NED ROU IRL GBR GBR AUS POL NED GBR ROU< 2 DEN AUS ROU> ROU CRO< LTU FRA ROU< AUS ROU NED CHN NED GBR 3 NZL NZL SWI NED ITA CHN< SWI FRA NZL GBR ITA GBR AUS CAN 4 JPN SWI ESP IRL IRL> USA ITA USA< NED USA GBR SWI ROU< AUS 5 GRE GER IRL GRE ROU FRA CZE IRL USA NED AUS UKR GER USA 6 BEL USA LTU GBR ESP IRL ESP GRE> FRA IRL ROU GER USA> CHN 7 CRO AUT SRB USA BEL AUS GRE NZL ROU CHN EST< ITA< CHN ITA 8 BUL UZB< AUS LTU CHN GRE< BEL CHN UKR DEN UKR< USA> ITA GER 9 NED> SRB< DEN< CHI NZL NED NZL ITA SWI< NZL IRL CAN CAN 10 LTU CHN> USA DEN MDA NOR UKR CAN CHN< ESP GER AUS AUT 11 CAN BUL AIN (B) ESP USA POL MEX> POL GER> POL NOR FRA 12 AIN (R) ESP CRO< CZE> FRA GER NOR SWI POL GER SWI ROU 13 SRB LTU NZL CRO AUS GBR POL AUS RSA> CAN LTU CZE 14 HUN ITA< ITA GER NOR< ITA CHN AUT IRL> MEX CHN 15 ITA> AIN (B)< RSA POL GER NZL GER GER ITA USA 16 NOR CZE CAN ITA GBR CZE POR ESP DEN CAN 17 URU< TUR NED NZL GRE CAN AUS DEN CZE 18 BRA ROU TUR CAN CZE SWI> USA TUN 19 ESP GBR> POL AIN (B) SRB RSA TUR> PER 20 AUS UKR FRA FRA POL> AUT EGY 21 USA AIN (R) CHN CHN UKR< EST 22 POR FRA GER PAR SWE< URU 23 AIN (B) JPN HUN LTU UZB> 24 CHN POL SLO BUL ISR 25 SLO NOR< CZE URU> EGY 26 TUN LAT< EGY RSA 27 TUR SLO CUB 28 MON PER EGY 29 ROU KUW PER 30 CYP BRN BRN 31 ISR TOG 32 AZE 33 SWE> 34 EGY 35 MEX> 36 ESA< 37 BER 38 FIN 39 PAR 40 ZIM 41 CIV< 42 IRQ 43 GEO 44 BAR 45 ANG 46 BEN 47 SUD 48 LIB I posted this on the rowing world champs page as well but I said I would post it here if I did it. Anyway, so I did the exercise of trying to rank every boat's form coming into these champs. I did this last year as well and well it wasn't particularly accurate in terms of trying to predict results but hopefully offers some perspective on where our boats might rank and should be useful in assessing how tricky heat draws are and stuff. > means I think a given boat will finish higher than where I have ranked them and < means I think it will actually finish lower than where it is ranked here. So how many do you think we will qualify now? I still think the w4s and women’s lightweight are touch and go. The quads surprised me today being just over a second from a semi-final spot. Definitely worth sending them to the FQR. I’m still going for 5 boats qualifying here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogreman 269 Posted September 6, 2023 #44 Share Posted September 6, 2023 I have said seven before I'll stick with it even if the women's four is very close at this point. I'm pretty confident in the women's lightweight double even if it will be close. The semi final is against switzerland, Canada, USA, New Zealand and France. Its annoying to get France who ended up in the rep but still it could be worse. It is a bit of a everyone could beat anyone else semi-final apart from Switzerland. The womens four are up against Canada, Denmark, USA, GB and China. Honestly that is a pretty good draw. We are unlikely to beat USA and GB but Canada, Denmark and China are all beatable. Only makes it more dissapointing if we miss out though. Our heat time was pretty slow but I don't know if we should read into that too much. The other 5 boats should definetely qualify. Our three quarter finals tomorrow are all fairly straightforward draws and obviously the womens pair and womens double are basically home and dry in terms of Olympic qualification. The quad looked a lot better today than yesterday. This boat has potential but it is tricky to row and just throwing four athletes albeit good ones together in a boat was unlikely to yield immediate results. I also do wonder if we have the coaches to produce a good quad. Quads are more about technique more so than any other boat and good clean technique hasnt exactly been what our previous succesful boats have been built on. Plus I dont trust Fran keane and the men's heavyweight coaches yet. Finding a good double and pair this year is encouraging but this is two years in a row now where the mens squad has on the whole underperformed compared to its talent level. I suspect what will happen is that despite one being a sculling boat and the other a sweep boat next year we will probably end up either focusing on the four or the quad next year. Could easily see John Kearney/Jack Dorney moving into the quad or vice versa and trying Brian Colsh out with one oar. Oldira 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dodge 855 Posted September 8, 2023 #45 Share Posted September 8, 2023 5 boats in. The lightweights look great. Between them and Swiss for gold (now and next year) Really happy to see all the others qualify relatively comfortably. Both pairs looked really strong today. They're in medal contention for sure Fingers crossed for the B finals. Lightweights in a fight but have a chance. Fours were strong for 1250 and then tailed off quite badly. Hopefully just keeping energy but hard to see them winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldira 76 Posted September 8, 2023 #46 Share Posted September 8, 2023 2 hours ago, dodge said: 5 boats in. The lightweights look great. Between them and Swiss for gold (now and next year) Really happy to see all the others qualify relatively comfortably. Both pairs looked really strong today. They're in medal contention for sure Fingers crossed for the B finals. Lightweights in a fight but have a chance. Fours were strong for 1250 and then tailed off quite badly. Hopefully just keeping energy but hard to see them winning I think the Light Weight women will win the B final. They should have enough to beat Poland and Greece and they were way ahead of France yesterday. Plus they have the best lane. The Fours will have to wait for the FQR. They faded really badly in last 250 yesterday and let Denmark breeze past them. Probably 3rd tomorrow but with Hegarty back next year I think they will get to Paris again. I did predict 5 boats qualifying but did not expect 5 finalists. We can definitely target 2-3 medals in Paris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogreman 269 Posted September 8, 2023 #47 Share Posted September 8, 2023 5 hours ago, Oldira said: I think the Light Weight women will win the B final. They should have enough to beat Poland and Greece and they were way ahead of France yesterday. Plus they have the best lane. The Fours will have to wait for the FQR. They faded really badly in last 250 yesterday and let Denmark breeze past them. Probably 3rd tomorrow but with Hegarty back next year I think they will get to Paris again. I did predict 5 boats qualifying but did not expect 5 finalists. We can definitely target 2-3 medals in Paris. I wouldn't rule out the womens four. You never know if conditions get a bit easier or something. While I would be hopeful of a spot at FOQR if they miss out. I certainly wouldn't be calling it this early. Also wouldn't rule France out tomorrow in the lightweight double. B finals can get weird. What you have outlined are the most likely outcomes but I just wouldn't be so sure we actually see them. Oldira 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogreman 269 Posted September 9, 2023 #48 Share Posted September 9, 2023 That was too close. I have never celebrated another boat catching a crab before but I celebrated that French one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dodge 855 Posted September 9, 2023 #49 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Ha. I think our girls had them anyway. The Polish were the danger. Some nations who think they had medal chances in Paris won’t be there we will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmo Kramer 4 Posted September 9, 2023 #50 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Great bronze medal for Corrigan and Timoney there, inches from silver too. Serious potential in that boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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