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Canada's 2024 Olympics Qualification Discussion

JoshMartini007
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Canadian Olympic Qualification Period Overview   Over two years ago the Olympic qualification period started for Paris 2024. Canada won its first quota on November 1, 2022, when our women’s

Josh
Josh

Canadian Olympic Medal Chances Overview   We’re now a couple of days out from the Olympics, and it’s time for a medal overview (you can probably tell I got lazy at times )    Canad

Topicmaster1010
Topicmaster1010

So for those who missed it, I simulated every quota for the upcoming olympics which you can find here. @Josh I believe you wanted a breakdown for the Canadian team and I will do that below.  

NearPup Rising Star

NearPup   3,559

Posted
Posted (edited)

Erin Brooks is likely to have a pretty long career, if she's as good as she's hyped up to be she'll be a medal contender in 2028 and 2032 (and will be able to qualify through the WSL, which is a more reliable way to qualify)

 

16 is really young for a surfer.

Edited by NearPup
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Josh Experienced

Josh   11,626

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So I’ve done some calculations:

 

In women’s shortboard (8 quotas), Mathea Olin has a 8/29 (27.58%) chance of qualifying for Paris now (repechage 4) as US/Australia/France aren’t eligible for them, and Peru/Spain/Brazil/Japan/Germany can only grab a maximum of two quotas each (All three surfers from each NOC are still alive, including Tatiana Weston-Webb who has already qualified)


In men’s shortboard (6 quotas), Cody Young/Levi Young each have a 6/32 (18.75%) chance of qualifying for Paris now. United States, Brazil and Australia aren’t eligible for them, while France, Spain, Germany and Costa Rica can only grab a maximum of two quotas each. 
 

Watch us not win a single quota now :p

 

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Josh Experienced

Josh   11,626

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4 hours ago, Josh said:

So I’ve done some calculations:

 

In women’s shortboard (8 quotas), Mathea Olin has a 8/29 (27.58%) chance of qualifying for Paris now (repechage 4) as US/Australia/France aren’t eligible for them, and Peru/Spain/Brazil/Japan/Germany can only grab a maximum of two quotas each (All three surfers from each NOC are still alive, including Tatiana Weston-Webb who has already qualified)


In men’s shortboard (6 quotas), Cody Young/Levi Young each have a 6/32 (18.75%) chance of qualifying for Paris now. United States, Brazil and Australia aren’t eligible for them, while France, Spain, Germany and Costa Rica can only grab a maximum of two quotas each. 
 

Watch us not win a single quota now :p

 

Mathea out. Welp looking like Sanoa will be our only surfer at Tahiti this summer. 

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JoshMartini007 Rising Star

JoshMartini007   2,769

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Realistically, surfing is still one of our weaker sports. The fact we have anyone competing is a pleasant surprise.

 

Based on her performance over the past year Brooks' silver medal last year was more of a fluke and unlikely to be replicated.

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Josh Experienced

Josh   11,626

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13 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Realistically, surfing is still one of our weaker sports. The fact we have anyone competing is a pleasant surprise.

 

Based on her performance over the past year Brooks' silver medal last year was more of a fluke and unlikely to be replicated.

I don’t think we’re as weak in surfing as you would claim us to be. We’ve had excellent (by our standards) performances at the last two ISA Surf Games. Her results haven’t been great, but they haven’t been bad either. I don’t agree with you calling Erin’s silver medal a fluke (?) though, she’s widely regarded as the next big surfing sensation. 

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JoshMartini007 Rising Star

JoshMartini007   2,769

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49 minutes ago, Josh said:

I don’t think we’re as weak in surfing as you would claim us to be. We’ve had excellent (by our standards) performances at the last two ISA Surf Games. Her results haven’t been great, but they haven’t been bad either. I don’t agree with you calling Erin’s silver medal a fluke (?) though, she’s widely regarded as the next big surfing sensation. 

Perhaps in the future, but given the fact she failed to qualify to the World League, she's still behind the top surfers. I look forward to seeing her in 2028.

 

 

From a qualifying to the Olympics perspective surfing had one of the lowest chances, but that's more due to our versatility. Right now we are on pace at qualifying in 28/32 sports. Not many nations have that kind of reach. Modern pentathlon could have someone if Fitzsimmons competes at the World Cups while sport climbing is quite unlikely. Field Hockey and Handball obviously has no chance now.

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