Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

  On 1/17/2024 at 10:47 PM, Cmon Mary said:

The GB Team seem to be focused on the Milton round as well - comments from Ethan Vernon on BBC Sport site after Gold at the Euros:

 

 

"It is one of the last races we will do against the guys here, so it is nice to take a good time and take some confidence going into Paris," Vernon said.

"A few of us are going off onto the road now with our teams, so we are not going to be back together for a few months.

"It was nice to have a high like that before we go off and do our own things for a bit, then come back for the last Nations Cup... I think it will get better going into Paris."

 

Seems remarkably confident, almost cocky, that they are as good as qualified even before the Nations Cup starts.  I have a bad feeling about this....

Expand  

To be fair, GB's top team pursuit squad has always relied heavily on their road cyclists so it was never likely that they would be made available to take part in the full track season so they would never be in a position to put their strongest team out across the three Nations Cup events. However equally, I think most people would agree that a "second tier" GB team should be able to out-score both Belgium and China. 

 

Far from being cocky, I think the fact that Vernon is suggesting that they will be competing in Milton is a sign of how seriously they are taking the challenge to qualify - if GB haven't done enough in the first two rounds, then the top squad (or at least some of them) will take to the boards for that final push. 

 

Looking at the 2023 Nations Cup results:

Jakarta - Wood / Tidball / Britton / Tanfield: GB 3rd Belgium 6th 

Cairo - Tidball / Giddings / Gill / Hobbs: GB 5th China 10th Belgium 11th

Milton - Wood / Bigham / Charlton / Gill: GB 1st Belgium 6th China 7th

 

If GB can get a top 4 position in Adelaide, that will likely deliver around 300-point swing to GB which would be more than enough to overtake both China and Belgium. The biggest risk to them securing a quota would be if they failed to finish in Adelaide as that would ramp up the pressure going into the final 2 events.

 

 

 

[Cmon Mary 27]

Thanks Rafa - helpful analysis.  Of course, not finishing is what got GB into this situation in the first place.

[mpjmcevoy 362]

  On 1/18/2024 at 1:01 AM, Rafa Maciel said:

To be fair, GB's top team pursuit squad has always relied heavily on their road cyclists so it was never likely that they would be made available to take part in the full track season so they would never be in a position to put their strongest team out across the three Nations Cup events. However equally, I think most people would agree that a "second tier" GB team should be able to out-score both Belgium and China. 

 

Far from being cocky, I think the fact that Vernon is suggesting that they will be competing in Milton is a sign of how seriously they are taking the challenge to qualify - if GB haven't done enough in the first two rounds, then the top squad (or at least some of them) will take to the boards for that final push. 

 

Looking at the 2023 Nations Cup results:

Jakarta - Wood / Tidball / Britton / Tanfield: GB 3rd Belgium 6th 

Cairo - Tidball / Giddings / Gill / Hobbs: GB 5th China 10th Belgium 11th

Milton - Wood / Bigham / Charlton / Gill: GB 1st Belgium 6th China 7th

 

If GB can get a top 4 position in Adelaide, that will likely deliver around 300-point swing to GB which would be more than enough to overtake both China and Belgium. The biggest risk to them securing a quota would be if they failed to finish in Adelaide as that would ramp up the pressure going into the final 2 events.

 

 

 

Expand  

"GB's top team pursuit squad has always relied heavily on their road cyclists"

 

Or GB's road programme has always depended heavily on its track pursuiters...

[Laraja 1,495]

Olympic Rankings by Nations updated as of January 16th, 2024

Edited January 18, 2024 by Sindo

[dodge 1,027]

Not your fault Laraja but those rankings (as published by the UCI) are wrong. They’ve made a mistake with the European championships (AFAIK!)

[Adriano 590]

  On 1/16/2024 at 9:39 PM, TeamGB said:

I was looking at the entry lists for the upcoming Nations cup in Adelaide, and there is no Chinese team in the men's team pursuit. I'm not sure if this is correct but if so then that is basically saying that the Chinese federation aren't that focused on qualifying for this event at all. Unless I'm missing something.

Expand  

Where is this list?

[Illya 518]

  On 1/19/2024 at 9:54 AM, Adriano said:

Where is this list?

Expand  

On the UCI site, in the section "2024 Nations Cup" or smth like that

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

With the 1st of 3 Nations Cups complete, I've had a chance to run the numbers and the current race for qualifying in the men's team pursuit looks like this:

 

 

 should move up to 5th place this week however it will be temporary as both  and  have their continental championships in hand and both are likely to pick up additional 900 points there.

 

The maximum that GB can now score is 7,793 which means that they cannot catch , ,  or . It is also unlikely that they will finish ahead of  and  so at the moment, I would say that they will probably end the ranking period in 7th place. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

Qualifying position for men's team sprint:

 

 

With  absent,  move to the top of the rankings and it is going to be nip and tuck to decide which country will finish at the top of the rankings.

 

 emerging as real contender for the bronze medal as they move up the ranking - they are currently in 4th place but will move ahead of GB when the continental champs take place.

 

The main focus going forward is likely to be the battle between  and  for the final spot. At the moment, Poland is currently ahead but this will likely be reversed when the continental championships take place. If we factor in their likely continental points, then Canada would be ahead by just 45 points. I don't think that Canada will be able to replicate their 4th place finish when we get to Milton in April so my best guess is that the advantage is currently with Poland for the last quota, but they will need to send their strongest team to both Hong Kong and Milton to give them their best chance. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,606]

Track Cycling Quota Projection as at end of January: