unbelievable!!! Had to watch it with 5 min delay as I was in a video call.... 
Now the screams of surprise and joy also came with a 5min delay
Expandbetter than Geiger ?
yes, because this one was not very likely prior to the Games. Also CC is one of my favorite Winter sports and a German medal here is always very special. Katha Hennig is a really great athlete and she totally deserves an Olympic medal (all others of course too)
OMG!! Best German medal until now
ExpandIt will probably be about hiding Fraebel/whoever on the second leg. In the end it will be the same as always for german cross-country skiing: "Außer Spesen nichts gewesen"
I'm not sure whether Sofie Krehl could also be an option, she also had two good results in the previous races. Sauerbrey/Hennig/Krehl/Carl. They can beat the US and let's see how FIN/RUS/SWE/NOR will perform.
Not really expected a medal in CC, maybe in 4 years if the progression of the German team (esp. Women's) continues. The entire team improved a lot over the last years and there are some promising talents, not only Sauerbrey. Lisa Lohmann and the Hoffmann sisters are hopefuls for the future too. But the medals will always hang very very high in CC, especially over the individual distances.
However, I love this sport and I think that the huge amount of TOP 15 results that Germany already collected here is very good.
Just one lipstick between 1st/2nd and 3rd/4th, resp.
Really good result by Hennig, missing 3rd place by only 12 sec.
Also Katherine Sauerbrey deserves to be mentioned here. Her second TOP 15 results at the Olympics after having only a few World Cup starts. That is really great and means that Germany has a second good skier for the Classic part of the relay. If we only a had a second good Freestyle skier 
ExpandDisclaimers, etc. New women's ranking around the interesting positions:
Croatia making it to a second ticket or not will depend entirely on whether or not Karen Chanloung starts and finishes tomorrow's race. That's a bit of an interesting predicament, considering she'd give Thailand a second ticket with which they can do literally nothing, but she'd take away one from Croatia.
Brazil should be able to get to 26th at least, and 25th if both finish tomorrow. No danger from behind anymore, only Thailand can (and will) pass them in case Chanloung finishes and both Bruna and Jaque don't, but since Brazil is in 27th and not 30th, that's no problem.
Congratulations! 
Two questions: 1) Is it safe that the Brazilian NOC will use all its quota places in any case? Even if they get 3 (which is possible, as we know 
)
2) Did you calculate the full ranking list or just for the places 20+? Would you share the full list with us if yes?
Chervotkin johauged the field during the first leg. Strange race.
Expand@LowerSaxony Brazil could get a second quota through D.2 if they’re in the top 30, but you’re absolutely right about reallocation as well.
My math worked out identical as well when I did the calculations a few days ago, so I think all of this is correct.
Ah nice. I have to admit that I do not read each and every post here ;-) But double-checking is always preferable in a scientific process, so why not here too?
(btw I think there should be a bachelor degree program for understanding Olympic qualification processes with maybe a master program for the qualifications procedures in Canoeing and Biathlon )
Anyways, the bottom line is: Team Brazil still has good chances for bringing a team sprint relay to the starting line in Beijing
ExpandIt would not be enough yet to pass Thailand by the way, probably. Assuming the main race will again have roughly 70-80 starters.
Mhm, you surely did the calculations for yourself, but:
144 quota places for Women available (w/o host country)
- x quota places allocated via D.1 (max 1 per NOC)
- 65 quota places allocated via D.2 (max 4 per NOC)
- 35 quota places allocated via D.3, rounds 1-3 (max 3 per NOC)
---
= leaving 44-x quota places to be allocated via round 4 of D.3
A rough count of the results of the WCh races so far show 31 nations qualified via D.1 + 2additional nations (TUR, LIE) qualified from Under 23-WCh (all with one athlete with less than 300 FIS points). Thus, x=33 (at least around 33, I maybe made a counting mistake)
--> 11 quota places to be allocated via D.3/round 4 (max 1 per NOC, starting with 6th place of Nation's Ranking as TOP 5 nations already reached the maximum of 8 places).
--> Thus, if all nations confirm their places, the NOC ranked 16th in the Nations ranking will earn the last available spot (ignoring the host country places so far)
--> The nation ranked 31th would be on 15th position of the reallocation list as the IOC document reads "If an allocated quota place is not confirmed by theNOC by the confirmation of quota place deadline, or is declined by the NOC, the quota place will be reallocated according to Round 4 in D.3 to the next eligible NOC."
--> In 2018, the nation ranked 28th on the reallocation list still earned a spot via reallocation. However, we cannot compare this process to 2022 as there was a combined reallocation list for men and women.
But still: Given BRA is ranked 31th on the final reallocation list, there is still a realistic chance for getting a second spot for the Olympics (One is safe for BRA from D.1) as there will surely be some middle to smaller nations who will not confirm their 3rd or 4th spot (f.e. Thailand). If they somehow manage to get on 30th place, there is even a chance for 3 quota places for BRA.
Additionally, the host country will surely have 1 or 2 places from the "normal" allocation process, meaning it's more realistic that the nation ranked 31th will be on 13th or 14th position of the reallocation list.
I hope I did not forget sth... that's ofc just a rough calculation
ExpandDisclaimer: my calculations might very well not be exactly correct.
The battleground states in the women's nation's ranking after today:
I really wonder, and it's of rather big significance, whether or not Thailand, Australia and Armenia (and South Korea/Lithuania, sure) will send someone to the Engadin World Cup (if allowed, which is another question)...if they don't, that is absolutely Brazil's chance.
Is it safe that Brazil will send their full team to the final World Cup stage? They "just" have to finish a race for getting some points for that list?
Wow, SUI and SLO... nice!
ExpandSuch a bad performance ... it was very easy in this heat to qualify for the final. Ladies are in the final, but I think no real medal chance.
The men's team's performance today was okay, without that bad luck of Brugger they would have had a realistic chance of finishing within the TOP 4.
However, is anabody expecting a German medal in the team relays!? I think a TOP 6 result for the Women's team would be very nice.
Meh. Vermeulen stapped on Brugger's ski binding, Brugger lost his ski in the middle of the 3rd leg, leaving them with no chance. Fucked up home WCh for German CC team so far.
ExpandWhen it comes to the reallocation, yes. When it comes to the top-30, I read it as in that case they'd get one ticket via D.1 (done by Jaque Mourao at the world championships) and one ticket via D.2 (which would be done by a 30th place in the ranking). Not like D.2 only says the total they'd get, but it's one ticket from D.1 and one from D.2 (if all works out, of course).
D.3 is not about reallocation, but about remaining places: "The remaining quota places (...) will be allocated to NOCs based on the FIS Cross Country Nation Ranking 2020-2021per gender in four (4) allocation rounds (...) During this process once an NOC has achieved the maximum total number of eight (8) places per gender it will no longer be counted and the next eligible NOC on the FIS Cross-Country Nation Ranking2020-2021 per gender will be allocated a place."
If you were wrong about D.1 and D.2, meaning 30th place of the nations ranking would NOT receive an additional place from D.2, it would not be possible for a NOC for "no longer to be counted" in round 4 of the D.3 process. That is, no NOC could reach the maximum number of 8 places before round 4 of D.3 is closed. Thus, I think you are right
ExpandBy the way, just to be clear, we are all seeing it correct, right? In the rare case Brazil manages to sneak in 30th, they do actually get an extra ticket (so two total), correct? I'm all the time wondering if we're not seeing this wrong.
After first reading the qualification procedure, I would agree. I think the main indicator for your interpretation to be true is the word "remaining" in section D.3 of the qualification pathway.
ExpandYes, it's my own calculation. The manager of the Brazilian team makes one herself as well and before today, there were a few small differences, so we're not entirely sure who made a small mistake where
It's so annoying FIS doesn't simply keep this list posted somewhere, just like IBU they completely ignore a list that is incredibly important for Olympic qualification
This is the points distribution in top level team events:
Thanks. So that means, if the smaller nations don't make calculations for themselves, they are completely left in the unknown about Olympic qualification and have to wait whether their federations receive a call from the IOC after qualification period ended?! Strange.
Expandrumors saying she and her longtime partner, a former world rowing champion are considering starting to think about forming family right after the Beijing Games next year. So, I guess, that is the date she will leave the sport.
However, in opposition to the majority here, I really like her, always was kinda fan of Therese, and I will certainly miss her after the day she will end her career.
Good to know, that would mean, we could have more exciting races in the foreseeable future. My statement wasn't directed against Johaug personally, it's just the hope for mass start races which are not decided after 3 minutes though I don't like her either since her doping ban, she's cleary the best - by far, no question about that, but that's exactly the problem I'm talking about
ExpandGreece made a big jump with their three lapped athletes today, Brazil won five positions and is not entirely out of it yet in terms of fighting for the second quota.
Is that a calculation by yourself? How many places between BRA and CRO/LTU in the sprint team relay are necessary for them in order to be 30th?
ExpandTalking about deceptions: 29th place, four minutes behind for Katharina Hennig.
The entire CC/NC German team with completely inferior material for the third day in a row. Not the only team of course, but kinda sad on the home turf.
And honestly, I hope Johaug will quit soon. Women's mass start races are completely unwatchable with her on the start list. No climax, field destroyed after minutes. Tour de Ski 2021 was such a delight without her. ;-)
Expand?? Thank you!!!
Unfortunately I feel like that... I worked so hard and here I got surprised with every detail about this track - and it's not like I haven't been studying this track since long ago because @heywoodu witnessed how much I did. We even made specific trainings for that to kind of simulate the intensity on the uphills. Damn it, we did everything to make sure I would be familiar with the track, but once I had the first experience here that was shocking ???♀️ never seen so steep uphills and so dangerous downhills and that kind of snow all in the same track! I was shocked and having a hard fall already in the first day here did not help. Waste of all the work... that's how it feels for me. But ok, shit happens and it changes nothing in my plans to get qualified for the Olympics. I will keep working and do everything I need to reach it.
You deserve loads and loads of respect for pursuing your goals, and pushing cross country and biathlon in your country. I cannot even imagine how much work is needed for becoming a competitor at a World Championships and how hard it must be to align training with private life - especially without much funding from your federation and sponsors I guess. Even though I'm only a couch athlete (at least for the very most of my time): Stick to your goals, keep on fighting, you have my full respect and admiration for your efforts and your past and future performances!
ExpandMaybe I should write Eurosport and ask them if they could use a new commentator. I honestly think this guy on Danish Eurosport is the worst I've ever heard!
German Eurosport commentaors are way more competent and more fun to listen than those on public law TV (ARD/ZDF), regardless of the sport - at least to me.
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