Extremely impressive time, I absolutely didn’t think that he would be this fast. Now we know that he can medal/win gold in at least 4 different individual events (200 IM/breast/fly + 400 IM). The question is whether he will also become a medal contender in the 100 fly/200 free. I don’t really see it (given how competitive those two events are), but after tonight I probably shouldn’t doubt him. Personally I think that he might have a better shot in the 100 breast/200 back. It will be interesting to see which events he will swim at the Olympics. 200 breast and 200 fly are in the same session, so he will probably drop one of them. The schedule probably also won’t allow him to swim the 100 breast or 200 back, so he might go for the 200 IM, the 400 IM, the 100 fly (which doesn’t collide with any of his other events) and the 200 breast or the 200 fly. It might sound crazy, but maybe he would be better off dropping the 200 fly. I think he has a better chance for gold in the 200 breast than in the 200 fly.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Watch out for her in the next few years, she's our version of Summer McIntosh and is the next big thing in women's long distance swimming. She gave Freya Colbert a run for her money in the 800, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if she gets the worlds consideration times and Olympic standard times for both 800 and 1500.
Those times are very impressive for someone of her age, but it is absolutely ridiculous to compare her to McIntosh or predict that she will be the next big thing in women’s distance swimming. McIntosh might very well be the biggest talent in the history of women’s swimming and is on a trajectory to become the GOAT female swimmer. There have been tons of female teenage phenoms in women’s distance swimming that never won anything at senior level and apart from that there are also a lot of other young girls who are clearly ahead of Blocksidge while not being much older (Grimes, Sims, Weinstein, McIntosh, Chinese girls, Dyakova (Russian girl born in 2008 who went 4:07 in the 400 free this week)). McIntosh (born in 2006) only narrowly missed a medal at the 2021 Olympics. I don’t really see Blocksidge (born in 2009) doing the same next year in Paris. She would have to drop 15-20 seconds in the 800 free and/or 35-40 seconds in the 1500 free, which means that she would have to go more than 2 seconds faster per 100 m than she did this year.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
I don’t think that it makes much sense to make predictions when many countries haven’t even had their trials yet. Personally I would be surprised if the following swimmers would win an individual medal:
Women:
50 free: Wasick
100 free: Steenbergen
100 breast: Van Niekerk/„China“ (Meilutyte? Elendt? King? Pilato?)
100 fly: Hansson/Wattel
400 IM: Franceschi/Colbert/Forrester
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Laon Kim (14 years old) has broken all the NAG records in the races he has competed in. Many believe he is the "next Summer Mcintosh"
Who exactly believes that? The probability of him becoming as great as McIntosh is extremely low. His freestlye times are very good, but he hasn't shown much in other events. McIntosh finished 4th in Tokyo as a 14 year old. Kim would have to qualify for Paris and final there in order to remotely justify this comparison. I think that he will have to be able to swim the following times if he wants to final in Paris:
50 free: 21.7 (His current PB: 23.55)
100 free: 47.8 (His current PB: 51.05)
200 free: 1:45.5 (His current PB: 1:52.82)
400 free: 3:45.0 (His current PB: 3:56.79)
800 free: 7:45.0 (His current PB: 8:17.16)
1500 free: 14:50.0 (Couldn't find his current PB)
He will have to drop an insane amount of time within the next year if he wants to be on the same trajectory as McIntosh was.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
We don’t know what her focus has been on recently, but at least the 200 free record seems in danger, maybe also the 200/400 IM records. Still think that the 200 fly record is out of her reach for now, but maybe she can go 2:03 this year and then attack it in 2024 or 2025. The 200 fly record is probably the most difficult to break on the women’s side (maybe apart from Ledecky‘s 800/1500 free records) and the only record (in an Olympic event) that might be even more out of reach is the men’s 800 free record (+ maybe Peaty‘s 100 breast record). I think Phelps holds the record for having broken the world record in the most Olympic (individual) events. He broke the record in the 200 free, 100/200 fly and 200/400 IM. Crazy to think that Summer could actually match that. I don’t See her breaking the 800 free record, but who knows?
List of female swimmers with the most Olympic golds:
Jenny Thompson - 8
Katy Ledecky - 7
Kristin Otto/Amy Van Dyken - 6
Emma McKeon/Krisztina Egerszegi/Dana Vollmer/Missy Franklin - 5
List of female swimmers with the most individual Olympic golds:
Katie Ledecky - 6
Krisztina Egerszegi - 5
Inge De Bruijn/Janet Evans/Yana Klochkova/Kristin Otto - 4
List of female swimmers with the most Olympic golds at a single games:
Kristin Otto - 6
Kornelia Ender/Katie Ledecky/Emma McKeon/Missy Franklin/Amy Van Dyken - 4
Number of swimming gold medals that Canada won at the Olympics (all-time): 9
Number of swimming gold medals that Italy won at the Olympics (all-time): 5
Number of swimming gold medals that Russia (ROC excluded) won at the Olympics (all-time): 4
Number of swimming gold medals that Germany (after the reunification -> since the 1992 Olympics) won at the Olympics (all-time): 3
Number of swimming gold medals that Spain/Brazil/South Korea/Poland won combined at the Olympics (all-time): 5
Right now 3 gold medals seems like a conservative prediction for McIntosh.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Apart from Liendo, Kharun, MacNeill, Maße and McIntosh the most interesting swimmers to watch will probably be Ella Jansen and the young Sandpiper girl in the distance events (Dunford?). Oleksiak and Ruck not competing probably kills Canada‘s medal chances in the free relays and at least opens the door in the medley relay. Maybe Canada can put together a men’s 400 free relay that has an outside shot at a medal, it probably depends on Kharun.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
If Paltrinieri were going to break the 1500 WR he'd have got it already imo so I think it's safe.
Sjostrom set the 50 and 100 free world records at 2017 worlds.
You are right about Sjöstrom, I am going to edit my comment. I think Paltrinieri set a new PB just last year, so (surprisingly) I see no signs of decline.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Obviously impossible to predict this early. I think the following records in olympic events are safe: Men's 50/400/800 free, men's 100/200 breast, men's 200 back, men's 400 free relay, men's medley relay, women's 50/800/1500 free, women's 100 breast, women's 200 fly, women's 200 IM. The 3 records in olympic events for each gender that are (in my opinion) the most likely to be broken:
Number of world records in olympic events that were broken at the last 5 world championships:
2013: 2 (both by Ledecky)
2015: 5 (4 on the women's side (2 of them by Ledecky) + the mixed medley relay)
2017: 5 (4 on the women's side + the mixed medley relay)
2019: 4 (2 on both sides, but the 2 on the women's side were both in relays)
2022: 2 (both on the men's side)
-> From 2013 to 2017 not a single world record on the men's side was broken (but 10 on the women's side), but at the last two editions all 4 individual records that were broken were on the men's side. So if i would have to guess the number of records that will be broken, i would say 3 or 4.
Also interesting:
Oldest world record on the men's side: 400 IM (Phelps in 2008)
Oldest world record on the women's side: 200 free (Pellegrini in 2009)
Records on the men's side that were set before 2010: 50 free, 200 free, 400 free, 800 free, 200 back, 400 IM, 400 free relay, 800 free relay
Records on the women's side that were set before 2010: 200 free, 200 fly
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Finlay Knox as well, who won the same amount of medals as the entire Germany team at the World Short Course Championships.
The fact that you have to sink so low, desperately trying to win a discussion that you can't win, speaks for itself. Obviously you don't care about the "truth", but only about "winning". Still here are some facts to put your "argument" into perspective:
- The whole discussion was based on LONG COURSE results. The fact that you need SHORT COURSE results to justify declaring Knox a world class swimmer says it all. Knox finished 17th at the LONG COURSE world championships the same year. Of the 16 swimmers that finished ahead of him there, only 7 competed at the short course world championships.
- Why did you feel the need to bring up german results? Did i say that german swimming is better than canadian swimming? No. Obviously this comparison is completely irrelevant for the strength of canadian men's swimming (but if you would have asked me, i obviously wouldn't have disagreed that canadian swimming is much stronger than german swimming). Says a lot about you that you can't lead a discussion without whataboutism. Sure sign that you aren't actually open to change your opinion, so why even bother answering? Knox won one bronze medal at an olympic distance (200 IM) at the 2022 world short course championships, Germany won twice as many medals at olympic distances (men's 100 fly and women's 100 breast) AND Germany was missing 4 of their 5 best swimmers (Wellbrock, Märtens, Gose, Köhler), which should show you how little they thought of this championship. Of course you would have known that if you would have any swimming knowledge. Another proof that nowadays most people think that it is completely irrelevant whether you have any clue about the things you are talking about. Why inform yourself when you can have an "opinion" simply based on emotions? Would be great if we could establish a mechanism where only people who have informed themselves can speak about a topic, otherwise every discussion will be flooded with people who have no clue, but still for some reason demand to be taken seriously.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Australia and Canada having a stronger women's team relative to their men probably contributes to the European imbalance. Those two nations plus the United States don't leave much for the rest of the world. Throw in a few individuals from China, Japan and South Africa and Europe doesn't have too many opportunities.
Kind of a „chicken or the egg“ question. If you look at NCAA swimming, you will see that there are tons of foreign men competing, but far fewer women. Did the weakness of American men allow European men to „blossom“ or did the strength of European men stop American men from „blossoming“? Not too long ago Phelps and Lochte were super dominant. I guess Seto and Hagino „disappearing“ also helped. I think it might change again (at least to some degree) in the near future. Heilmann, Winkler, Williamson and Diehl are all looking very promising, but of course Popovici/Galossi/Milak/Marchand are all also still very young.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Josh Liendo won 100m Butterfly, and 100m Freestyle bronze at the 2022 World Aquatic Championships. Plus you have Illya Kharun, who’s one of the of the most promising junior swimmers in the world at the moment. Sure they don’t field as strong of a team as their female counterparts, but saying they’re “almost nonexistent”
Yes, you have produced one world class male swimmer. Kharun didn’t even know that he was Canadian and is 100 % a product of the American system, not much of an accomplishment for Canada.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Something i noticed/remembered while looking at the results of the 2022 swimming world championships:
Only 7 european women won an individual medal in an olympic event (Compared to 15 european men winning one) and if everyone would have competed (MacNeil, McKeon, Titmus, Schoenmaker) it probably only would have been 4. In the medley and backstroke events european women didn't win a single medal and 3 of the 7 individual medallists won their medal in the 100 breast. Also no european nation has a realistic chance of winning a relay medal on the women's side. Would be interesting to know the reason for this imbalance and of course european nations should try everything they can to fix this. Canada on the other hand is extremely strong on the women's side and almost nonexistant on the men's side.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Ha, I get it. I've been following her since before Tokyo and she is the real deal. The closest to Phelps in womens's swimming I've ever seen. But still, we have to wait to see how she manages bigger schedules and it seems to me she is smart enough to choose wisely and not get burned in the process.
Also, right now her only sure gold medal event is the 400 IM, she has to battle the likes of Titmus, Ledecky, Haughey and Molly in freestyle, Yufei in the 200 FL and the americans in the 200 IM, so any extra rest she can get will be better.
Not sure if the 200 fly gold will really be more difficult for her to win (than the 400 IM gold). I think 2021 was the only year where Zhang Yufei went sub 2:05 + she is 8 years older than McIntosh. Also like i said before: I think McIntosh has the potential to break Phelps' records (number of medals at a single olympics + overall medals at the olympics) + Paris might very well be her peak (when you look at the trajectory of other teen phenoms in the past). I don't know what her goals are, but if she wants to become the greatest swimmer of all times, it would be wise to go for as many medals as possible in Paris. Unlike Phelps she won't win 3 safe relay medals at every olympics (thanks to canadian women not being on the same level as american men), so a lot will depend on the quality of her teammates going forward. I hope that Canada will a) find an elite breaststroker (for their chances in the medley relays) and b) use her in all 3 of their relays on the women's side.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Any word on which events McIntosh will compete in at the Olympics?
I guess the biggest question mark from an individual event perspective is whether or not she will compete in the 200m free as the final overlaps with the 400 IM final. Five individual events would be very hard to compete, but if any swimmer is to pull it off in 2024 it would be her.
The 4x200m free overlaps with the 200m fly final, but it's hard to think she would miss the final. Another question is whether she competes in the 4x100m free which overlaps with the 400m free event. Losing Sanchez hurts our depth, but we may still be good enough to medal.
My guess:
Day 1:
400 free prelim
400 free final
4 x 100 free final
Day 2:
200 free prelim
200 free semifinal
Day 3:
400 IM prelim
400 IM final
200 free final
Day 4:
-
Day 5:
200 fly prelim
200 fly semifinal
Day 6:
200 fly final
4 x 200 free final
Day 7:
200 IM heat
200 IM semifinal
Day 8:
Maybe 4 x 100 medley relay prelim
200 IM final
It (almost) looks as if the schedule was designed for her. I think whenever there are multiple of her "favorite" events in the same final session, the one where she has better medal chances is first, so competing in both isn't much of a risk. The only "problem" for her is that the 800 free and the 200 IM overlap and it seems impossible to do both. If the organizers would have split those two events up, she could have gone for 6 individual medals. I think the older athletes get, the longer they usually need to recover, so this might be her best chance (unless more nonsensical events will be added in the future) to go for the all-time record of medals won at a single olympics.
Anything between 3 medals (400 IM, 200 fly, 400 free) and 7 medals (200 IM, 200 free, 4 x 200 free, 4 x 100 free) seems possible. If Canada would use her in the medley relay prelim, she could mabye go for 8 medals to tie Michael Phelps' record.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Canada won 14 medals here...1 less than 2021, which is remarkable as Australia did not compete last year. Canada was also missing its best male and female athlete here.
On the other hand russian athletes and for example Sjöstrom didn't compete this time. The only real news for canadian swimming from this meet is that Kharun might actually become a medal contender in long course in the near future. Of course Canada had absolutely nothing to do with his development and basically gets all the reward while putting in no work. Canada should be in the mix for all relay medals on the women's side in Paris (possibly also thanks to the emergence of Ella Jansen) + 6-8 individual medals on the women's side (100 free, 200 free, 400 free, 100 fly, 200 fly, 100 back, 200 back, 200 IM, 400 IM) + 1-2 individual medals on the men's side.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Happy to see our young 4x200m womens team already reaching 4th place in a global final. Not sure how far their potential reaches, but it will definitely be a big ask to really challenge the three swimming powerhouses USA, Australia and Canada.
In long course your women are lightyears away from USA, Canada, Australia and China. It would be the biggest miracle in the history of sport if your women would reach that level in the foreseeable future. There are probably half a dozen other nations that are at least as good as the Netherlands. Your only swimmer who is even close to world class in the 200 free is Steenbergen. I think in Paris the absolute perfect case for the Netherlands would be 5th place in the relay + Steenbergen somehow sneaking into the individual final. At this point it is difficult to imagine the Netherlands winning more than 2 medals (2 x Kamminga) in Paris.
Edited by OlympicsFan
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Yeah, and somebody used to say Italian sport is dying.
Would only be logical, given their financial situation, but Italy and Spain would rather beg the EU for more money than to cut down on nonsensical expenditures like elite sports. Of course it also helped that they reinstalled their doping program. I guess they got tired of being everyone‘s punching bag.
Italian Gold medals in athletics at the 2020 Olympics: 5
Italian Gold medals in athletics at the previous 8 Olympics combined: 4
All of a sudden they can even develop world class sprinters like Jacobs or Ceccon.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Absolutely disgusting to see the cheater stealing another medal. She wasn’t good enough to win anything anymore, then she retired and now multiple years later she returns as a grandma and is suddenly the best in the world. Even Gatlin’s Progression was more believable.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
You can think whatever you want, this is one of those rare cases where it is quite evident, if you know some very undelightful details, that she used this ban as a form of escape. You have absolutely no idea what she lived through, the fact that she came back like this is astonishing.
She was one of the most tested Lithuanian athletes from 2012 to 2018, instigating that she used doping when her results got bad and after she already won it all is pretty stupid.
Is it good that she purposefully missed her doping tests? No. But she was done, she thought she would never swim competitively again and she used the safety net of the ban so that she wouldn't have to make that choice herself and that the federation & media would stop pestering her about the upcoming 2020 Olympics.
You don't know what it was like for Meilutytė when she stopped winning gold and immediately the journalists and many many sports fans turned on her, made fun of her body, harrassed her and all that.
1) You also have no idea how she felt.
2) It doesn't matter how she felt. Would be absolutely crazy if you could just claim to have depression and then you would get a pass to dope without anyone testing you. Sad that she stole a medal, hopefully she will disappear again soon.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Italy is having a good champs for sure, some 17yo won 100m breaststoke? Also I thought Meilutyte has retired? Good to see her win a medal 10 years after the London shock.
I think she was banned. Now she comes back and swims her best time in 5 years or so. Ridiculous really. The Justin Gatlin of swimming. Her winning a medal is a huge loss for the sport.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
it seems that they're still trying to find a deal, rather than being done and dusted (he is/was not the only candidate)...or maybe, now they've finally got the agreement they were looking for...
we'll see in the next few weeks, I guess (sooner or later they have to make some kind of announcement)...
Would be extremely weird. Spain must pay insane money for him to go there. I am sure he could have gone to pretty much any world-class country (or France) for a lot of money.
Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Posted (edited)
Extremely impressive time, I absolutely didn’t think that he would be this fast. Now we know that he can medal/win gold in at least 4 different individual events (200 IM/breast/fly + 400 IM). The question is whether he will also become a medal contender in the 100 fly/200 free. I don’t really see it (given how competitive those two events are), but after tonight I probably shouldn’t doubt him. Personally I think that he might have a better shot in the 100 breast/200 back. It will be interesting to see which events he will swim at the Olympics. 200 breast and 200 fly are in the same session, so he will probably drop one of them. The schedule probably also won’t allow him to swim the 100 breast or 200 back, so he might go for the 200 IM, the 400 IM, the 100 fly (which doesn’t collide with any of his other events) and the 200 breast or the 200 fly. It might sound crazy, but maybe he would be better off dropping the 200 fly. I think he has a better chance for gold in the 200 breast than in the 200 fly.
Edited by OlympicsFanAttachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached.
Link to post
Share on other sites